Scientists increase the odds asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon in 2032
Click for original image.
Using additional data obtained by the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have now refined the orbit of potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 and confirmed that while it will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032, the odds of it impacting the Moon have increased.
With the additional data, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid’s orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid’s probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.
The yellow line in the image to the right shows the present range of positions the asteroid could be in as it passes the Moon on that date. It is expected this range will be narrowed further when the asteroid flies past the Earth harmlessly in 2028.
If the asteroid should hit the Moon, the impact will provide scientists a great opportunity to learn more about asteroids and the Moon. If it should miss, it will then be essential to recalculate its orbit to see what will happen on later near approaches, whether the fly-by increased or decreased the chances of a later Earth impact.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Click for original image.
Using additional data obtained by the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have now refined the orbit of potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 and confirmed that while it will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032, the odds of it impacting the Moon have increased.
With the additional data, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid’s orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid’s probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.
The yellow line in the image to the right shows the present range of positions the asteroid could be in as it passes the Moon on that date. It is expected this range will be narrowed further when the asteroid flies past the Earth harmlessly in 2028.
If the asteroid should hit the Moon, the impact will provide scientists a great opportunity to learn more about asteroids and the Moon. If it should miss, it will then be essential to recalculate its orbit to see what will happen on later near approaches, whether the fly-by increased or decreased the chances of a later Earth impact.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Should it hit the moon, the billions of debris cast off into near space around the moon and earth (worst case scenario, like Saturns rings) will be around for a very long time, optical telescopes for observing may be the only instruments viable as satellites are destroyed. (The light show at night will be unforgettable, spectacular)
Let’s hope that it does not collide, space travel will be setback for decades and would be a very dangerous occupation.
On the other hand, a lunar and mars colony would suddenly become a priority, receiving funding and permissive execution from every country. Fear is a strong motivator. Perhaps a near miss will be motivation enough.
Max: I think you overstate significantly the amount of debris from that impact.
save the lunar dinosaurs!
Worst case scenario is a glancing blow of a 200 foot diameter stony type astroid that’s scoops a few acres from the lunar surface. Kinetic energy superheating into plasma will toss the fragments. Gravity is weak and the astroid is traveling at a significant speed. But the likelihood of permanent orbit is very small and therefore temporary. (no blocking of solar light, or climate change)
The size and mass of the astroid is what my imagination is depending on, but you’re right… it will probably be insignificant impact with a minor light show.
But then there is a lot of unhappy nuclear capable nations at war right now, which could escalate. A timely explosion as two objects pass each other could be used as a distraction. (expect someone to claim testing of an earth defense system)
The debris field could provide cover for other activities. Due to it 4% possible close encounter, an event would be certain when properly timed and executed.
Pure sci-fi, but capable in this age. (it doesn’t help that I’ve seen five different Hollywood movies on the subject)
Lucifers hammer and the aftermath in the book fired a wild imagination on the subject.
The thing that bothers me is that despite the 4.3% probability (semi small at under 1 in 20) the “Position Uncertainty” diagram has the Moons orbit directly in the middle.
Are there implications here?
We have seen the Moon hit before.
This crater was hypothesized as being the result of an impact:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giordano_Bruno_(crater)
This was witnessed in 1178.
I thought we – not “me”, but “them there sciencey folks” – were better at maths than this. The moon isn’t exactly a small target.
Chris, good point about the error bars. Could it glance off and ricochet somewhere? That would be interesting – as long as “somewhere” isn’t “into Earth”.
“In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.” Not entirely accurate JPL.
Weren’t we interested in how much, if any, we could change the orbit of the asteroid Dimorphos several years ago, by impacting it with a tiny satellite? We weren’t expecting a small change of orbit of 100 feet, but by several thousand miles by the time when (if) it, or any other body, got to earth’s orbit, and so miss the earth. Let’s hope those science folks didn’t mis-math their “+” and “-” signs for this possible 2032 rendezvous with our near & dear friend.