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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

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Space Force awards SpaceX and ULA seven launches worth more than a billion dollars

The U.S. Space Force (USSF) yesterday awarded multi-launch contracts to both SpaceX and ULA for seven launches beginning in 2027 worth more than a billion dollars.

SpaceX received $714 million for five launches and ULA was awarded $428 million for two launches, USSF said in an Oct. 3 news release.

The awards are part of the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch Program, which it uses to launch services for military space missions. In April, it chose SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin to launch a total of 54 missions scheduled between fiscal 2027 and 2032, with SpaceX responsible for just over half, with 28 launches. Individual missions will be awarded in batches through fiscal 2029.

Though Blue Origin was included in this program and its New Glenn rocket has finally launched once successfully, its not yet been certified to launch military satellites, and to get certified the company is going to have to launch at least one more time. That launch is expected before this month is out. Moreover, it will soon have to compete against more companies, and the Pentagon will be adding Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to its approved list as soon as both successfully launch their respective Neutron and Nova rockets by next year.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

7 comments

  • Jeff Wright

    Probably just a hit piece by the usual suspects—still disturbing if true
    https://www.propublica.org/article/elon-musk-spacex-china-investors-court-testimony

  • Dick Eagleson

    How disturbing this alleged news is would depend entirely upon who the alleged “Chinese” investor(s) is/are. Ethnic Chinese investors from Singapore or Taiwan wouldn’t bother me at all. Neither would even certain people from the PRC. Finding out that Jack Ma, for example, was a SpaceX investor wouldn’t bother me whatsoever. In any event it’s not as though SpaceX investors get to look at the blueprints.

  • Tregonsee314

    Hmm, the 5 SpaceX flights for $714 million or about $142.8 million each. The ULA launches are $428 million for 2 or $214 million each. I would presume the ULA launches are for Vulcan/Centaur pairs as I think Atlas V is gone. I do hope there are stiff non-performance clauses in the contracts for ULA as well as good insurance. The Vulcan Centaur has precisely 3 launches under its belt. Paying a ~$70 million premium per flight for a platform with three flights vs one with 550 or so successful flights seems a little excessive just to have a second source. Honestly, even the SpaceX price tag seems high. I thought their going rate was ~~100 million a launch on Falcon 9. Of course USSF does tend to have heavier payloads and higher orbits that might require expending the Falcon 9 first stage, thus driving up the price.

  • geoffc

    Tregonsee314 – 4 of the 5 launches are Falcon Heavy, which likely means Direct to GEO insertion style missions, where they may not be able to recover the side boosters. Core will be lost, probably for sure. Would need both ASDS barges to recover the boosters downrange.

    Or maybe they are just really heavy payloads? All classified but who knows, so the pricing is for mostly Falcon Heavy which usually is shown with a $125 million price tag, so not so much of a cost for government oversight.

  • Richard M

    Tregonsee,

    Stephen Clark at Ars Technica noticed the big price differential in the contracts, too:

    The Space Force is paying SpaceX $714 million for the five launches awarded Friday, for an average of roughly $143 million per mission. ULA will receive $428 million for two missions, or $214 million for each launch. That’s about 50 percent more expensive than SpaceX’s price per mission.

    While notable, these prices are close to the numbers from the last batch of contracts, when SpaceX charged $121 million per mission, and ULA’s price was $214 million per launch, the same as this year. Part of this price difference could be explained by SpaceX’s reuse of Falcon boosters, whereas ULA’s Vulcan rocket is a disposable design.

    But look back a little further and you’ll find ULA’s prices for Space Force launches have, for some reason, increased significantly over the last few years. In late 2023, the Space Force awarded a $1.3 billion deal to ULA for a batch of 11 launches at an average cost per mission of $119 million. A few months earlier, Space Systems Command assigned six launches to ULA for $672 million, or $112 million per mission.

    The average value of SpaceX’s military launch contracts remained fairly steady over the same timeframe.

    Link: https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/pentagon-contract-figures-show-ulas-vulcan-rocket-is-getting-more-expensive/

    I’m not sure exactly why this has happened. But until other (non-SpaceX) U.S. launchers in development (New Glenn, Neutron, Stoke Nova, etc.) get certified and start competing for these contracts, this may just be the price that the Defense Department has to pay for launcher and launch provider redundancy.

    I think Vulcan, like Atlas V before it, is going to be a high precision, dependable launch vehicle. For natsec launches, that matters. But yeah, it’s turning out to be excessively expensive, too.

  • Richard M

    4 of the 5 launches are Falcon Heavy, which likely means Direct to GEO insertion style missions, where they may not be able to recover the side boosters.

    Yeah, the fact that these are almost all Falcon Heavy launches does matter for the price point!

    That said, the harsh reality is that SpaceX no longer has any incentive to cut its prices until there’s another credible launch provider on the market that’s able to offer genuine price competition: there’s no point to leaving money on the table. ULA has got itself a cheaper rocket now to replace Atlas V and Delta IV, but it is still not cheap enough to offer such competition. I think we need successful Neutrons and Novas to do that. But neither of them can do these big GSO missions, either, so….

  • Jeff Wright

    Beck…the Samwise Gamgee of NewSpace.

    He needs to lose the Hasselhoff perm.

    Next thing you know, we will see a Marjoe Gortner look-alike…

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