Sunspot update: Activity declines in August to just above prediction
On September 1st NOAA released its update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In August sunspot activity dropped from July so that it was only slightly above the prediction of NOAA’s panel of solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. The blank streak at the very end of July ended on August 2nd (a streak of seven days and the longest in years), but was followed during the month by an additional five blank days.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Last month I had noted that the higher than expected activity was also steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted. This month’s drop in activity changes that. While the slope upward is happening sooner than predicted, the ramp up to solar maximum at this moment seems to be following the same slope as the prediction.
Will the maximum thus peak at the level predicted, though sooner? No one really knows. So far in September the sunspot activity has been very high, well exceeding the prediction, and suggesting that the steepening of the upward slope has resumed and its activity could continue to ramp up well above that red curve, as some scientists have predicted.
Or it could falter and end up at or below the prediction of NOAA’s scientists. We can only wait and see.
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On September 1st NOAA released its update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In August sunspot activity dropped from July so that it was only slightly above the prediction of NOAA’s panel of solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. The blank streak at the very end of July ended on August 2nd (a streak of seven days and the longest in years), but was followed during the month by an additional five blank days.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Last month I had noted that the higher than expected activity was also steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted. This month’s drop in activity changes that. While the slope upward is happening sooner than predicted, the ramp up to solar maximum at this moment seems to be following the same slope as the prediction.
Will the maximum thus peak at the level predicted, though sooner? No one really knows. So far in September the sunspot activity has been very high, well exceeding the prediction, and suggesting that the steepening of the upward slope has resumed and its activity could continue to ramp up well above that red curve, as some scientists have predicted.
Or it could falter and end up at or below the prediction of NOAA’s scientists. We can only wait and see.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Here is a link to the BBC where things are argued both ways for the global warmists, showing how people are bamboozled by the “experts)..
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526
Phill O. What the study shows is very straightforward, it doesn’t “argue both ways” so the bamboozlement appears to be yours.
Interesting link though, thanks.
Mr. Z, this phrase caught my attention: “. . . steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted.” Have not researched this, but curious as to how much the ~11-year solar cycle varies. Can it be 10 years or shorter, or 12 years or longer on occasion, or is it predictably 11-point-something years, with only the amplitude of the sunspot population varying?
Greg the Geologist: The cycle varies in length from 10 to 12 years, with most being 11 years long. Shorter cycles generally correspond to more activity, while longer cycles less so.