Sunspot update: Activity declines in August to just above prediction
On September 1st NOAA released its update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In August sunspot activity dropped from July so that it was only slightly above the prediction of NOAA’s panel of solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. The blank streak at the very end of July ended on August 2nd (a streak of seven days and the longest in years), but was followed during the month by an additional five blank days.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Last month I had noted that the higher than expected activity was also steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted. This month’s drop in activity changes that. While the slope upward is happening sooner than predicted, the ramp up to solar maximum at this moment seems to be following the same slope as the prediction.
Will the maximum thus peak at the level predicted, though sooner? No one really knows. So far in September the sunspot activity has been very high, well exceeding the prediction, and suggesting that the steepening of the upward slope has resumed and its activity could continue to ramp up well above that red curve, as some scientists have predicted.
Or it could falter and end up at or below the prediction of NOAA’s scientists. We can only wait and see.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
On September 1st NOAA released its update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In August sunspot activity dropped from July so that it was only slightly above the prediction of NOAA’s panel of solar scientists, as indicated by the red curve. The blank streak at the very end of July ended on August 2nd (a streak of seven days and the longest in years), but was followed during the month by an additional five blank days.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Last month I had noted that the higher than expected activity was also steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted. This month’s drop in activity changes that. While the slope upward is happening sooner than predicted, the ramp up to solar maximum at this moment seems to be following the same slope as the prediction.
Will the maximum thus peak at the level predicted, though sooner? No one really knows. So far in September the sunspot activity has been very high, well exceeding the prediction, and suggesting that the steepening of the upward slope has resumed and its activity could continue to ramp up well above that red curve, as some scientists have predicted.
Or it could falter and end up at or below the prediction of NOAA’s scientists. We can only wait and see.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Here is a link to the BBC where things are argued both ways for the global warmists, showing how people are bamboozled by the “experts)..
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526
Phill O. What the study shows is very straightforward, it doesn’t “argue both ways” so the bamboozlement appears to be yours.
Interesting link though, thanks.
Mr. Z, this phrase caught my attention: “. . . steepening with time, suggesting the Sun was going to reach its maximum much sooner then predicted.” Have not researched this, but curious as to how much the ~11-year solar cycle varies. Can it be 10 years or shorter, or 12 years or longer on occasion, or is it predictably 11-point-something years, with only the amplitude of the sunspot population varying?
Greg the Geologist: The cycle varies in length from 10 to 12 years, with most being 11 years long. Shorter cycles generally correspond to more activity, while longer cycles less so.