Sunspot update: Another month of greater activity than predicted
NOAA this past weekend released an update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In July the Sun’s hot streak of sunspot activity continued. The number of sunspots on its visible hemisphere continued to exceed the prediction of NOAA’s solar science panel, with the numbers in July easily topping June’s numbers. Only at the very end of July was there a streak of five blank days, the first time the Sun has been blank of sunspots since May 6th, a stretch of activity not seen for years, since the last solar maximum was ramping down to solar minimum in ’16-’17.
The political consequences of this continuing high activity could be quite profound.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
What is most striking about this activity is how it is not only higher than predicted, the slope seems to be steepening with time, as if the Sun cannot wait to get up to solar maximum. In the past it was normal for high cycles to ramp up very fast, and then ramp down more slowly. With the weak solar maximums in ’04 and ’14, that pattern wasn’t followed. The slopes of the ramps up and down were more or less the same.
The unexpected steepening ramp up now strongly suggests that the coming maximum will exceed the predictions far more than the present activity indicates. Right now the high activity really isn’t that much higher than the curve, and could easily be explained as simply a short period when the activity randomly fluctuated higher. In the coming months the activity could drop again, and average out to more closely match the prediction.
However, if this steepening and increasing activity continues, then it could be that the prediction of some solar scientists, that the next maximum will be very strong, contrary to the general consensus of the solar science communty, could turn out right.
If so, the number of sunspots could rise right off the graph, and return to the high activity that was normal for most of the last two centuries.
For those past two centuries that high activity appeared linked on Earth to a warmer climate, which means that in the coming decades such high activity could cause the climate to warm, instead of cool as it has for the past two decades during a period of low solar activity. That rise, possibly caused by the Sun, will then give ammunition to the corrupt power-hungry politicians who wish to blame human activity for global warming. And since much of the science climate community appears captured by those politicians and eager to prove them right rather than follow the data, we will face another drive by those in power to squelch our freedom, using data incorrectly for political ends.
It very well could be that human activity is contributing to global warming. It also could very well be that this influence is far less than claimed by these politicians and the scientists who back them. Instead, it could very well be that the Sun’s influence is a major factor, one that these biased politicians and scientists have refused to consider.
The result will be that we will not find out, one way or the other, as the effort will be to blame humans for the rise, rather than dig in to study all of the data so as to discover what is really happening.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
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NOAA this past weekend released an update of its monthly sunspot cycle graph, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity for the past month. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.
In July the Sun’s hot streak of sunspot activity continued. The number of sunspots on its visible hemisphere continued to exceed the prediction of NOAA’s solar science panel, with the numbers in July easily topping June’s numbers. Only at the very end of July was there a streak of five blank days, the first time the Sun has been blank of sunspots since May 6th, a stretch of activity not seen for years, since the last solar maximum was ramping down to solar minimum in ’16-’17.
The political consequences of this continuing high activity could be quite profound.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
What is most striking about this activity is how it is not only higher than predicted, the slope seems to be steepening with time, as if the Sun cannot wait to get up to solar maximum. In the past it was normal for high cycles to ramp up very fast, and then ramp down more slowly. With the weak solar maximums in ’04 and ’14, that pattern wasn’t followed. The slopes of the ramps up and down were more or less the same.
The unexpected steepening ramp up now strongly suggests that the coming maximum will exceed the predictions far more than the present activity indicates. Right now the high activity really isn’t that much higher than the curve, and could easily be explained as simply a short period when the activity randomly fluctuated higher. In the coming months the activity could drop again, and average out to more closely match the prediction.
However, if this steepening and increasing activity continues, then it could be that the prediction of some solar scientists, that the next maximum will be very strong, contrary to the general consensus of the solar science communty, could turn out right.
If so, the number of sunspots could rise right off the graph, and return to the high activity that was normal for most of the last two centuries.
For those past two centuries that high activity appeared linked on Earth to a warmer climate, which means that in the coming decades such high activity could cause the climate to warm, instead of cool as it has for the past two decades during a period of low solar activity. That rise, possibly caused by the Sun, will then give ammunition to the corrupt power-hungry politicians who wish to blame human activity for global warming. And since much of the science climate community appears captured by those politicians and eager to prove them right rather than follow the data, we will face another drive by those in power to squelch our freedom, using data incorrectly for political ends.
It very well could be that human activity is contributing to global warming. It also could very well be that this influence is far less than claimed by these politicians and the scientists who back them. Instead, it could very well be that the Sun’s influence is a major factor, one that these biased politicians and scientists have refused to consider.
The result will be that we will not find out, one way or the other, as the effort will be to blame humans for the rise, rather than dig in to study all of the data so as to discover what is really happening.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
The other quite plausible thought is that the start of the rise to solar maximum was predicted later than what is happening.
Too early to tell or draw conclusions.
The statement
“It very well could be that human activity is contributing to global warming. It also could very well be that this influence is far less than claimed by these politicians and the scientists who back them. Instead, it could very well be that the Sun’s influence is a major factor, one that these biased politicians and scientists have refused to consider.”
is true regardless of what is happening. Personal belief is that man’s contribution can NEVER be extracted from natural affects.
Here is a link to a site which shows the extent of global fires. The planet is burning big time and the CO2 produced far out weighs man’s contribution. The smoke in the atmosphere is certainly reducing the absorption of heat energy from the sun. Solar panel energy production in Alberta is certainly reduced.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=32.00&lon=-109.14&radar=1
Scroll down and highlight smoke and fires.
Phill O,
There are many hypotheses for the causes of climate change. In the 1970s, one highly publicized hypothesis was global cooling caused by human activity. In the 1980s the favored hypothesis became global warming caused by human activity. In the 2000s decade the favored hypothesis changed to generalized climate change due to human activity.
Other hypotheses include water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas) released by increasing numbers of trees causes surface warming in the areas of the continents where there are increasing numbers of trees. A recent hypothesis is that increases in ocean temperatures causes reduction of continental surface temperatures (heat energy is transferred from the land to the sea). There is evidence that warming of the continents causes CO2 to be released from soils, which could explain why core samples show CO2 increases following temperature increases.
There are quite a few other hypotheses, but this should help show that we are currently suffering from assumptions that correlation is causation. We have also seen a lot of confirmation bias going on, such as reduced snowfall proving global warming as well as increased snowfall proving global warming. That is what I want, a theory that is proved no matter what happens.
The increase in sunspots earlier than predicted show how little we understand about how the sun works and how the phenomena around it affect our planet an our lives.
Edward
You have that right “The increase in sunspots earlier than predicted show how little we understand about how the sun works and how the phenomena around it affect our planet an our lives.”
We are dealing with predictions (of when ramp to solar max etc) right now, which, times before, have been proven wrong.
We do not know, what we do not know.