Conscious Choice cover

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of founder of the Mars Society.

 

Available everywhere for $3.99 (before discount) at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all ebook vendors, or direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit. And if you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.


Sunspot update: The hot streak continues

This past weekend NOAA released its monthly update of its graph showing the Sun’s sunspot activity, with the new update covering the period through the end of June 2021. As I have done since I began this website eleven years ago, I post that monthly graph below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.

In June the hot streak of sunspot activity exceeding the prediction of NOAA’s solar science panel continued, with activity rising again after a tiny dip in May. Except for two months, since 2019 the number of sunspots each month has consistently exceeded the prediction. Furthermore, the ramp up of activity has been faster than expected.

June 2021 sunspot activity

The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.

Despite this hot streak, the difference so far between the prediction and the actual sunspot count is not very much. Should this pace of activity continue through maximum, the overall maximum, though higher than expected, will not be much higher than the previous solar maximum, which was one of the weakest in a century.

In other words, the Sun is still under-performing. Moreover, it is still too soon to say whether the prediction of NOAA’s panel, as indicated by the red curve, is wrong. It is not unusual for the monthly fluctuations to swing above and below such prediction curves. Given time, the overall curve could still match quite closely.

Nonetheless, the continuing unexpected high activity lends weight to the predictions of some solar scientists, who bucked the consensus of NOAA’s panel and continue to predict that the upcoming maximum will be strong, not weak.

It is too soon to say who will be right, but it is also clear that the consensus has no lock on correctness. In this sense, the solar cycle is giving us wonderful illustration of the uncertainty of science. Our knowledge is incomplete, so all predictions are untrustworthy and must be treated with great skepticism.

Readers!
 

My July fund-raising campaign for 2021 has now ended. Thank you all for your donations and subscriptions. While this year’s campaign was not as spectacular as last year’s, it was the second best July campaign since I began this website.


And if you have not yet donated or subscribed, and you think what I write here is worth your support, you can still do so. I depend on this support to remain independent and free to write what I believe, without any pressure from others. Nor do I accept advertisements, or use oppressive social media companies like Google, Twitter, and Facebook. I depend wholly on the direct support of my readers.


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3 comments

  • Phill O

    Seems that the predicted curve fits actual if the time stamp is altered to the start of the cycle being earlier.

  • Phill O. noted “Seems that the predicted curve fits actual if the time stamp is altered to the start of the cycle being earlier.”

    But, that’s not what happened.

  • Phill O

    bkivey

    The predicted curve has the predicted time of start. If that is faulty, then it fits nicely!

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