The hurricane season in 2024 confounded the predictions again
The uncertainty of science: Though the climate science community had predicted that last year’s hurricane season was going to be one of the most active ever, a new study published two weeks ago in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) found that the 2024 season did not behave as predicted. It ended up producing about the predicted number of hurricanes, but did so only because of a sudden rise in activity near the end of the season, after a long lull with almost no activity. From the study’s conclusion:
As has been noted throughout this study, the lull was immediately followed by one of the busiest ends to an Atlantic hurricane season on record, including two major hurricane landfalls in Florida (Helene and Milton), resulting in more than 250 fatalities and $100 billion in damage (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2025). Though the final overall number of hurricanes and major hurricanes were aligned with the seasonal forecasts, the extremely busy beginning and end to the season and marked lull in the middle highlight just how unusual the season was.
Last year’s prediction was not the first to be incorrect, though this time the error was in how the season unfolded instead of the total numbers. In the past two decades — since Al Gore prophesied that global warming would cause a gigantic increase in violent storms — NOAA has repeatedly called for very active hurricane seasons, and repeatedly those predictions have turned out wrong. In fact, from 2006 until 2018 there were almost no major hurricanes at all, the exact opposite to what Gore had foretold. Since then the seasons have returned to more normal numbers, but the predictions of the scientists have continued to be no better than throwing a dart at a wall while wearing a blindfold.
The ongoing 2025 hurricane season is following this same pattern. In May 2025 NOAA predicted this year would be a very active hurricane season. Instead, this season has matched those from 2006 to 2016, in which no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. and the number of strong hurricanes was almost nil.
The season of course is not yet over. We could see a burst of activity in the next few months, similar to what happened in 2024. Nonetheless, the important takeaway from this story is that the scientists who claim to know what is going to happen simply don’t know anything. They are guessing, because as the paper above admits, the Earth’s weather and climate are incredibly complex, and our understanding of it is still in its infancy.
Remember this when you read the next “We’re all gonna die!” prediction touted in the propaganda press.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science: Though the climate science community had predicted that last year’s hurricane season was going to be one of the most active ever, a new study published two weeks ago in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) found that the 2024 season did not behave as predicted. It ended up producing about the predicted number of hurricanes, but did so only because of a sudden rise in activity near the end of the season, after a long lull with almost no activity. From the study’s conclusion:
As has been noted throughout this study, the lull was immediately followed by one of the busiest ends to an Atlantic hurricane season on record, including two major hurricane landfalls in Florida (Helene and Milton), resulting in more than 250 fatalities and $100 billion in damage (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2025). Though the final overall number of hurricanes and major hurricanes were aligned with the seasonal forecasts, the extremely busy beginning and end to the season and marked lull in the middle highlight just how unusual the season was.
Last year’s prediction was not the first to be incorrect, though this time the error was in how the season unfolded instead of the total numbers. In the past two decades — since Al Gore prophesied that global warming would cause a gigantic increase in violent storms — NOAA has repeatedly called for very active hurricane seasons, and repeatedly those predictions have turned out wrong. In fact, from 2006 until 2018 there were almost no major hurricanes at all, the exact opposite to what Gore had foretold. Since then the seasons have returned to more normal numbers, but the predictions of the scientists have continued to be no better than throwing a dart at a wall while wearing a blindfold.
The ongoing 2025 hurricane season is following this same pattern. In May 2025 NOAA predicted this year would be a very active hurricane season. Instead, this season has matched those from 2006 to 2016, in which no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. and the number of strong hurricanes was almost nil.
The season of course is not yet over. We could see a burst of activity in the next few months, similar to what happened in 2024. Nonetheless, the important takeaway from this story is that the scientists who claim to know what is going to happen simply don’t know anything. They are guessing, because as the paper above admits, the Earth’s weather and climate are incredibly complex, and our understanding of it is still in its infancy.
Remember this when you read the next “We’re all gonna die!” prediction touted in the propaganda press.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I am very glad you wrote this. Asteroid/comet strikes are my worry…and even with Newtonian physics a gunny understands, there is wiggle room. Sunlight pressure–possible collisions with other objects on the way in.
Climate and weather are still more squirrelly—with medicine more art than science.
El Rush-Bo often cited the hurricane predictions and reality after Katrina. For 13 years after Katrina, no major hurricane hit landfall in the US of A.
The Globull Warming, Globull Cooling, Climate Change, Climate Crisis Hoaxers ‘predicted’ that more Katrina’s would hit every year, and the only way to stop it was to get rid of the evil SUV.
How Dare You!!!?!!?!!!
They are not guessing, they are lying for ideological purposes.
They are fooling good-hearted people. I love Marcus House–he has a child like wonder for space –but I too wonder about some words concerning waste. Glushko was the polar opposite of Marcus House–but sometimes, the world needs its monsters.
I always considered the implacable Valentin Petrovich above Korolev, Von Braun…even Elon, who was a little boy when the full flow RD-270 became the first full flow engine…long before Raptor.
Elon likes to have fun. Glushko on the other hand–made me wonder if he even knew how to smile.
Here’s one no one saw coming coming, Alaska hit by a typhoon?
https://alaskapublic.org/news/2025-10-13/51-people-rescued-and-at-least-3-still-missing-after-massive-storm-hits-western-alaska
The record is a 4 foot surge… This one had Highwinds and a 6 foot surge making a new record.
I expect to hear more “end of the world” predictions and climate change nonsense because of this.
Sailors do talk about the Northwest Passage opening up from time to time….it is one reason I like the idea of sunshades-as-powersats.
If they are solar thermal with fluids, they will be EMP resistant. Reflectors can take being holed better than photovoltaics.
If we get another Maunder Minimum type deal, reflect more light to Earth, when not reflecting/absorbing sunlight as the Sun steadily brightens. Only yhen–on becoming a Kardy’ Type I, will we be in the “Anthropocene.” Heck, rice farming is why we didn’t go back into the icebox.
Another reason for space infrastructure is that–just perhaps–we can weaken another Carrington Event via Dyson-Harrop coils.
In the Vietnam War, aquatic mines began exploding due to what was called a “failed Carrington Event.”
When human societies were more hand-to-mouth, humanity was in some respects disaster resistant for that very reason.
Blackouts are the disasters we should fear most.
If you have climate, it will change.
As one who has lived the entire timeline in the cartoon, it is funny and frightening. The fact is, Human’s like to worry about things. ‘End-of-World’ (as we know it) has likely been proselytized since the Species began, and by the same sort of people. It is when people believe themselves the Anointed, or realize that they can exploit that trait, that trouble begins. The Exploiters use the Anointed to breach the walls, then move in to redirect resources. Meanwhile, the majority of people who are interested in making a life without getting messed with, just don’t seem to learn that ‘catastrophe events’ are the hobby horse of the deranged and power-hungry.
There was a gulf coat hurricane in 2008 that hit Louisiana- Baton Rouge was without power 2+ weeks. your linked report lists a number of years 2006-2016 without a landfall hurricane; 2008 was not such a year.
Proof environmentalism is a religion:
https://phys.org/news/2025-10-divine-ancient-tool-modern-sustainability.html
No need to get rid of beef
https://phys.org/news/2025-10-methane-pastures.html
The latest nonsense
https://techxplore.com/news/2025-10-framework-reveals-smarter-faster-coal.html
“Published in Nature Energy, the study tackles a critical question: if market forces have already driven many coal plants to close, why are so many still running? Despite years of decline, roughly 105 gigawatts of coal capacity—representing 114 plants—are still slated to operate through 2035, even though a complete phaseout by that date is widely considered essential for meeting U.S. net-zero emissions goals.”
“Coal is complex—there’s no single right way to deal with it,” said Sidney Gathrid ’22, the study’s lead author. “Our goal was to build tools that reflect that complexity, so different actors can take on different facets of the problem. There’s no one straightforward path, and we wanted to do research that represented that reality.”
“Working with Grace C. Wu, an assistant professor in the Environmental Studies Program and senior author on the paper, Gathrid and his team show that reaching those goals will require policymakers to move beyond age-based or one-size-fits-all approaches—and instead focus on the specific contexts that accelerate the retirement of certain coal plants.”
To do that, the researchers—including Jeremy Wayland, Stuart Wayland ’22, and Ranjit Deshmukh, an associate professor in the Environmental Studies Program and the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management—developed a new framework combining graph theory and topological data analysis to classify the entire U.S. coal fleet into eight distinct groups based on 68 technical, economic, environmental and sociopolitical factors. They also introduced a “contextual retirement vulnerability” score that measures how susceptible each plant is to early retirement by comparing it to facilities that have already announced closures.”
That this tells you that it isn’t just government that is a tool Greens want to use against civilization—they know many conservatives want businessmen to be free of interference. Put classified tech in private hands, and it is FOIA proof, right?
I think Greens were happy about COVID shut-downs. Fear of contagion, and “expert doctors” didn’t face talk-radio push-back early on.
In their own words above they are targeting “68 technical, economic, environmental and sociopolitical factors.”
So–if they run to buiness–you must kick Rand to the curb–and run to government to pass laws making the shuttering of coal-plants a crime.
Of interest
https://techxplore.com/news/2025-10-heavier-electric-trucks-strain-york.html
Led by C2SMART researchers at NYU Tandon School of Engineering in collaboration with Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and published in Transport Policy, the study finds that oversized trucks already cause about $4.16 million in damage each year while permits bring in only $1.28 million. Electric trucks typically weigh 2,000 to 3,000 pounds more than diesel models, and in rare long-range cases as much as 8,000 to 9,000, so the financial gap is expected to grow.
Another attack on flight.
https://phys.org/news/2025-10-advanced-flight-emission-real-flying.html
One casualty of political hostility is aviation.
Not only do the Voughts of the world attack aerospace–but so do the Greens, who have increased emissions by thwarting the construction needed for extra runways to lessen congestion.
Talk radio fussed about Air Force One usage under Obama. When car company executives came to DC, the left fussed about them flying in–despite the fact that flight is one of the greenest forms of travel extant.
Even if NASA was pared back to NACA –that’s still too much for zealots. Soccer moms trying to shutter airports are even worse.
The narrative unchanged
https://phys.org/news/2025-10-savage-hurricanes-melissa-common.html
Other news
https://up-ship.com/blog/?p=27074#comment-6789752006
More of the same
https://phys.org/news/2025-11-climate-boosted-hurricane-melissa-destructive.html
And yet
https://wmo.int/media/magazine-article/it-now-possible-blame-extreme-weather-global-warming