The uncertainty of science: Star refuses to erupt when predicted
Based on records of two past eruptions approximately eighty years apart, astronomers had predicted that the binary star system T Coronae Borealis would erupt sometime in September 2024, brightening from magnitude 10 to as much as magnitude 2, making it one of the sky’s brighter stars for a short while.
That eruption however has so far not taken place.
“We know it has to happen,” astrophysicist Elizabeth Hays, who is watching T CrB every day using NASA’s Fermi gamma-ray space telescope, told Space.com in a recent interview. “We just can’t pin it down to the month.”
The unpredictability stems partly from limited historical records of T CrB’s outbursts. Only two such eruptions have been definitively observed in recent history: on May 12, 1866, when a star’s outburst briefly outshined all the stars in its constellation, reaching magnitude 2.0, and again on February 9, 1946, when it peaked at magnitude 3.0. These events appear to follow the star’s roughly 80-year cycle, suggesting that the next outburst may not occur until 2026. [emphasis mine]
The eruptions are thought to occur because the system’s denser white dwarf star pulls material from the lighter orbiting red giant. Over time that material accumulates on the surface of the white dwarf until it reaches critical mass, triggering a nuclear explosion that we see as the star’s brightening.
Astronomers have assumed this process is predictable, but in truth it really is not. For example, the star has brightened at other times, in 1938 and again in 2015, though not as much. These other brightenings suggest a great deal of uncertainty in the rate in which material accumulates, as well as how much is needed to trigger a nuclear burst.
Because of the possibility however of a burst at any time, astronomers have been poised eagerly now for months, observing the star regularly with the many orbiting telescopes that can observe it not only in optical wavelengths but in gamma, X-rays, and infrared. The latter capabilities didn’t exist in previous eruptions, and are now able to tell them things about the system that was impossible for earlier astronomers.
Assuming the eruption occurs at all. Despite the certainty of the astronomer’s quote highlighted above, there is no certainty here. This star system will do whatever it wants, despite the predictions of mere human beings.
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Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Based on records of two past eruptions approximately eighty years apart, astronomers had predicted that the binary star system T Coronae Borealis would erupt sometime in September 2024, brightening from magnitude 10 to as much as magnitude 2, making it one of the sky’s brighter stars for a short while.
That eruption however has so far not taken place.
“We know it has to happen,” astrophysicist Elizabeth Hays, who is watching T CrB every day using NASA’s Fermi gamma-ray space telescope, told Space.com in a recent interview. “We just can’t pin it down to the month.”
The unpredictability stems partly from limited historical records of T CrB’s outbursts. Only two such eruptions have been definitively observed in recent history: on May 12, 1866, when a star’s outburst briefly outshined all the stars in its constellation, reaching magnitude 2.0, and again on February 9, 1946, when it peaked at magnitude 3.0. These events appear to follow the star’s roughly 80-year cycle, suggesting that the next outburst may not occur until 2026. [emphasis mine]
The eruptions are thought to occur because the system’s denser white dwarf star pulls material from the lighter orbiting red giant. Over time that material accumulates on the surface of the white dwarf until it reaches critical mass, triggering a nuclear explosion that we see as the star’s brightening.
Astronomers have assumed this process is predictable, but in truth it really is not. For example, the star has brightened at other times, in 1938 and again in 2015, though not as much. These other brightenings suggest a great deal of uncertainty in the rate in which material accumulates, as well as how much is needed to trigger a nuclear burst.
Because of the possibility however of a burst at any time, astronomers have been poised eagerly now for months, observing the star regularly with the many orbiting telescopes that can observe it not only in optical wavelengths but in gamma, X-rays, and infrared. The latter capabilities didn’t exist in previous eruptions, and are now able to tell them things about the system that was impossible for earlier astronomers.
Assuming the eruption occurs at all. Despite the certainty of the astronomer’s quote highlighted above, there is no certainty here. This star system will do whatever it wants, despite the predictions of mere human beings.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
I have gotten into the habit of considering every speculation like this with the question of “What will Super-AI tell us?”
What will happen when questions about nature’s behavior become at least plausibly answerable because SAI agents will be able to access massive amounts of data, and draw conclusions that we can accept, but not clearly grasp the derivation of?
And then I read the last sentence… “This star system will do whatever it wants, despite the predictions of mere human beings.” We may have to reconsider such automatic assumptions, no?
“We know it has to happen…”
Said every string-theorist ever.
Ray Van Dune: That sentence of mine that you quote is a variation of what cavers routinely say while mapping a cave. “The cave will do what the cave wants to do.” While geology and survey data might give you good hints (often correct) about what to expect, it is NEVER certain. To be as certain as this astronomer is always a mistake.
If they acknowledged its gender it might cooperate and show off.
Bob Z, my intent was not to criticize, but to merely point out that levels of uncertainty that we commonly assume / accept may have to change in the future.
I find nothing “wrong” with your statement at all, it is just symbolic of today’s typical level of understanding of natural phenomena… a level that may change fundamentally when / if Superhuman AI becomes real!
Ray Van Dune: I took no offense at all. I was merely underlining the point we both were making. :)
My prediction:
There will be a discovery of a new type of pulsar that perfectly replicates the first five minutes of an “I Love Lucy” episode so as to get SETI folks’ hopes up only to dash them yet again.
“There will be a discovery of a new type of pulsar that perfectly replicates the first five minutes of an “I Love Lucy” episode…”
Statistically it’s inevitable.
This is so cool. Yet another demonstration of the notion that the more we know, the more we demonstrate that we don’t know, which makes me smile. Cheers –
Apparently the bloody thing is gonna pop off when it wants to. Who knew? Cheers –