ULA’s CEO outlines a bright 2025 for its Vulcan rocket
In an interview for the website Breaking Defense, ULA’s CEO Tory Bruno outlined his optimistic outlook in 2025 for its Vulcan rocket, despite the loss of a nozzle from a strap-on booster during its second test launch.
The important take-aways:
- He expects the military to certify the rocket “momentarily”, though this could mean one to several months.
- The company plans 20 launches in 2025, with 16 Vulcans already in storage.
- Eventually Bruno expects to be launching 20 to 30 times per year.
- Blue Origin has so far delivered 12 BE-4 engines, of which four have flown.
- Blue Origin’s production rate is presently one per week.
The last two items are significant. If this production rate is the fastest Blue Origin can do, it will limit the number of Vulcan and New Glenn launches significantly per year. For example, Vulcan uses two engines per launch. To do 20 launches in 2025 will require 40 engines. Blue Origin however wants to also launch its New Glenn a number of times in 2025, and it uses seven BE-4 engines per launch. A production rate of one per week means that Blue Origin will not be producing enough engines for the number of launches planned for both rockets. Either ULA will have to delay its Vulcan launches awaiting engines, or Blue Origin will have to do the same for its New Glenn.
Of course, it is also possible that Blue Origin will be able to up this production rate with time. It has certainly made progress in this area in the past year, since a year ago it was having trouble producing one engine per month.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
In an interview for the website Breaking Defense, ULA’s CEO Tory Bruno outlined his optimistic outlook in 2025 for its Vulcan rocket, despite the loss of a nozzle from a strap-on booster during its second test launch.
The important take-aways:
- He expects the military to certify the rocket “momentarily”, though this could mean one to several months.
- The company plans 20 launches in 2025, with 16 Vulcans already in storage.
- Eventually Bruno expects to be launching 20 to 30 times per year.
- Blue Origin has so far delivered 12 BE-4 engines, of which four have flown.
- Blue Origin’s production rate is presently one per week.
The last two items are significant. If this production rate is the fastest Blue Origin can do, it will limit the number of Vulcan and New Glenn launches significantly per year. For example, Vulcan uses two engines per launch. To do 20 launches in 2025 will require 40 engines. Blue Origin however wants to also launch its New Glenn a number of times in 2025, and it uses seven BE-4 engines per launch. A production rate of one per week means that Blue Origin will not be producing enough engines for the number of launches planned for both rockets. Either ULA will have to delay its Vulcan launches awaiting engines, or Blue Origin will have to do the same for its New Glenn.
Of course, it is also possible that Blue Origin will be able to up this production rate with time. It has certainly made progress in this area in the past year, since a year ago it was having trouble producing one engine per month.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I would bet the production is higher, but short term they know they will need more engines in house, for New Glenn.
ULAs rare of launch has never been particularly fast, and in the first year, does not seem to be any expectation of speed.
20 launches seems very optimistic based on previous results. But maybe I am spoiled by SpaceXs repetition
Dynetics Pyrios should have been Vulcan and also sold as an SRB replacement.
A bigger news item was a story in phys.org called:
“SCIENTISTS DEVELOP COATING FOR ENHANCED THERMAL IMAGING THROUGH HOT WINDOWS”
Rice University has a meta window that–despite being 600 degrees Centigrade–allows clean thermal imaging. This is *big*.
Add to that an article on China whose “Prototype network achieves seamless all light mobile communication across air land and sea.”
Sub-orbital craft just got relevant again.
I wish Tory all the best – there’s a big backlog of NSSL launches riding on Vulcan ramping its rate up, after all – but it will be one heck of a feat if they can reach 20 launches in 2020. Because that would be unprecedented for an orbital rocket in its second year of operation. Falcon 9 needed 8 years to reach that mark. Voshkod managed it in 4 – albeit with some failures.
Bruno is a late baby boomer a time when things got a bit more crowded and tougher by the time of career entry including grad school. Also rural cal upbringing like Victor Davis Hanson.
Are Bruno’s books a good read? If ULA has a good 2025 maybe it could go public.
Robert wrote: “If this production rate is the fastest Blue Origin can do, it will limit the number of Vulcan and New Glenn launches significantly per year.”
Once Blue Origin can start reusing New Glenn boosters, this limit will be eased, and once ULA gets around to recovering its pair of engines, then the current production rate of one per week may be able to cover the needs of both of these rockets, depending upon the useful lifetime of these engines.
If ULA launches 30 times per year and its rocket (and engines) are good for 20 Vulcan launches, then ULA will ultimately need three engines per year. This allows Blue Origin to use 49 engines per year, making seven replacement rockets annually. If New Glenn also lasts 20 launches, that allows for 140 New Glenn launches per year.
Until then, ULA’s hoped-for 30 launches per year will use engines faster than Blue Origin can currently produce them.