Category: Points of Information

Very brief descriptions, with appropriate links, of current or recent news items.

Crash prediction for Soviet-era Venus probe narrows

9:36 am

May 9, 2025 morning prediction
Click for original image.

The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).

The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.

The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.

This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.

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May 8, 2025 Quick space links

5:19 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

This is late because I was stuck in a doctor’s office for an extra two hours because the idiots misplaced my file. (Ain’t it great how Obamacare digitized all medical records so they would never get lost?)

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Bright material on the high points of a Martian mountain

12:29 pm

Bright material on top of a Martian mountain
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image is mostly an example of the present unknowns of Mars. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 2, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team quite rightly labels this vaguely as “bright materials,” referring to the bright rim of that crater as well as the scattered bright patches on the surrounding plain. This vagueness tells us that the scientists don’t have enough data yet to definitively identify this stuff, though they know it is distinctly unique because of its inexplicable bright albedo compared to everything around it.

That the crater rim (as well as all the crater rims in the full picture) exhibit this same brightness suggests this material was excavated from below when the impacts hit. The surrounding patches suggest that erosion has exposed this buried material at these points.
» Read more

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Israeli non-profit suspends its effort to build a second Beresheet lunar lander

11:35 am

The Israeli non-profit, SpaceIL, has now suspended its effort to build a second Beresheet lunar lander, citing an inability to raise funds for the project.

SpaceIL had built Beresheet-1, which in 2019 successfully reached lunar orbit, only to crash when it attempted to soft land.

The project’s budget was expected to be similar to that of Beresheet 1, which cost approximately $100 million. Most of the funding came from a group of donors led by Patrick Drahi and Morris Kahn, the primary backer of the original mission. However, in mid-2023, the donor group announced it would no longer support the project. SpaceIL launched an urgent effort to find alternative funding, but the outbreak of war on October 7, 2023, made fundraising even more challenging.

The organization’s board of directors repeatedly extended deadlines to secure funding, but by the final deadline—March 2025—the necessary funds had not been raised, forcing the suspension of the project.

A number of SpaceIL’s engineers on Beresheet-1 left the company after its failure to instead form their own Isreali company that partnered with Firefly to build the successful lunar lander Blue Ghost. I suspect their departure was a major reason why the original investors left, and no others could be found.

SpaceIL continues to do non-profit educational work in Israel. Though it claims its lunar lander project is not dead but merely suspended, it is almost certain it will never fly.

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Update on Vast’s space station plans

10:19 am

Haven-2
Haven-2 station once completed

Link here. The article provides a very detailed look at Vast’s short and long range plans, including its overall strategy to win NASA’s full space station construction contract by first building, launching, and occupying its small scale Haven-1 station and thus demonstrating it is the right company for NASA to finance its full scale Haven-2 rotating space station (shown in the graphic to the right).

The article notes that Vast intends to complete Haven-1’s primary structure in July, and do environmental and vibration ground testing from January to March 2026, with its planned launch on a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2026. Once launched it plans to put crews on board for a total of 30-days (though it is unclear at this moment whether that will be a single mission or a series of shorter flights).

In addition, the article reveals that the company also hopes to do two spin tests of Haven-1, testing its ability to rotate and create an artificial gravity. That aligns with the goal of Vast’s full scale Haven-2 station, which it wants to rotate as well. Since the plan is to assembly Haven-2 from upgraded Haven-1 modules, these spin tests are essential for proving the larger station’s design.

Based on this new information, I think we can now map out the evolving but still subject-to-change manned operations at Haven-1, comprising several short 3-5 day manned missions. The first will the crew test the module’s operation. The next two will be to do these spin tests, with people on board.

Vast’s strategy is fundamentally different than the other proposed stations (all listed below). Instead of taking a small NASA development grant to create designs on paper, it is spending its own money to actually launch a demonstration station. If successful, this strategy will make it very easy for NASA to pick it when the time comes to award the larger station construction contracts.

My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
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The French startup, The Exploration Company, ships its next cargo capsule prototype for launch

9:50 am

The Exploration Company, a French startup aiming to provide cargo services to both ISS and the future space stations that will replace it, has completed construction and testing of its next cargo capsule prototype, dubbed “Mission Possible,” and has shipped it to Vandenberg in California for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in June 2025.

In a 6 May update, The Exploration Company announced that it had completed Mission Possible’s pre-shipment review on 2 May and subsequently shipped the capsule to its launch site in the United States. The spacecraft will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 as part of the Transporter-14 rideshare mission, which is expected to lift off no earlier than June 2025.

Once launched, the Mission Possible capsule will remain attached to the Falcon 9 upper stage until after the stage completes its deorbit burn. This approach is necessary because the capsule lacks sufficient propulsion to independently deorbit itself. After separation, it will carry out a series of reorientation manoeuvres as it begins atmospheric reentry.

This capsule is 2.5 meters in diameter, smaller that its proposed commercial Nyx capsule that is the company’s eventual commercial freighter. It is also larger than the company’s first prototype, which flew on the first launch of Ariane-6 in 2024 but was unable to test its re-entry designs because of a failure in that rocket’s upper stage engine that prevented its planned controlled de-orbit.

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Europe and India sign agreement to work together on manned space flight

9:35 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday announced that it has signed an agreement with the Indian government that will lay the groundwork for them to work together on manned space exploration, first in connection with their future space station plans and later on lunar exploration.

ESA and ISRO declared their intent to work together on the interoperability of rendezvous and docking systems to allow their respective spacecraft to work together in low Earth orbit. They will also examine further activities related to astronaut training, analogue space missions – where teams test aspects of space missions in ground-based simulations – and parabolic flight activities.

…Future cooperation possibilities include ESA astronaut flight opportunities to the planned Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS) and early scientific utilisation, as well as developing infrastructure in low Earth orbit. The two space agencies are also discussing alignment on payloads and robotic scientific missions to the Moon.

Faced with the decommissioning of ISS in 2030, as well as the likely end to several major Artemis components (Orion and Lunar Gateway) that ESA has had a major part, it appears Europe has quickly begun looking for other alternatives. It already has partnered with the American consortium building the Starlab space station, but this new agreement with India gives it more options.

India meanwhile gets aid and support from Europe. It could even be that both are negotiating transferring some of Europe’s Lunar Gateway modules to India’s space station.

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Russia signs space agreement with Venezuela

9:23 am

The losers unite! Russia’s state-run press today announced that its government have signed a bi-lateral agreement with Venezuela to work together in space.

Moscow and Caracas have agreed to enhance cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space, including by building a Glonass ground station in Venezuela, according to a bilateral cooperation treaty.

Because of the bankruptcy at both nations, this agreement really doesn’t involve much real space development. All it really does is allow Russia to build a ground station in Venezuela for operating its orbiting Glonass GPS-type constellation, which Russia in turn has been struggling for decades to bring back into full operation after the fall of the Soviet Union.

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SpaceX gets approval to sell Starlink in India

9:18 am

Almost immediately after India’s government issued this week new tightened regulations for allowing private satellite constellations to sell their services in India, it also apparently completed negotiations with SpaceX to allow it to sell Starlink in India based on these rules.

According to sources, the DoT [Department of Transportation] granted the LoI [Letter of Intent] after Starlink accepted 29 strict security conditions, including requirements for real-time terminal tracking, mandatory local data processing, legal interception capabilities, and localisation of at least 20% of its ground segment infrastructure within the first few years of operation.

Starlink’s nod came amid heightened national security sensitivities, coinciding with India’s pre-dawn Operation Sindoor strikes on terror camps across the border in response to the Pahalgam massacre. However, DoT officials clarified that the decision to approve Starlink was independent of these military developments.

At the moment SpaceX’s chief competitors, OneWeb and Amazon’s Kuiper constellation, have not yet obtained the same permissions. This allows SpaceX to grab a large portion of the market share in India before either of these other companies.

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May 7, 2025 Quick space links

3:15 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

5 comments

Seepage coming from under an ancient Martian flood lava flow?

12:13 pm

Seepage at edge of lava flow?
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on April 3, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

I have enhanced the image to make it easier to see the details. It appears we are looking at three layers. At the base (on the left side of the picture) is a relatively smooth bottom layer with the highest number of scattered craters. On the top (on the right side of the picture) is a somewhat rough layer with fewer craters.

In between is a middle layer that appears to be seeping out from under the top layer.

The science team seems to agree with my last guess, as they label this image “Possible basal seepage at flow boundary.” The flow boundary is the edge of a lava flood that scientists believe covered a distance of about 1,400 miles at speeds ranging from 10 to 45 miles per hour.
» Read more

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