Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black., You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to:
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
One of the most powerful gamma ray bursts (GRBs) ever detected was so powerful that despite occurring about 1.9 billion light years away it was powerful enough to affect Earth’s atmosphere.
On 9 October 2022, for 7 minutes, high energy photons from a gigantic explosion 1.9 billion light-years away toasted one side of Earth as never before observed. The event, called a gamma ray burst (GRB), was 70 times brighter than the previous record holder. But what astronomers dub the “BOAT”—the brightest of all time—did more than provide a light show spanning the electromagnetic spectrum. It also ionized atoms across the ionosphere, which spans from 50 to 1000 kilometers in altitude, researchers say. The findings highlight the faint but real risk of a closer burst destroying Earth’s protective ozone layer.
“It was such a massive event, it affected all levels of the atmosphere,” says solar physicist Laura Hayes of the European Space Agency (ESA).
None of these consequences were harmful or even noticeable to any life on Earth, but the data proved without question that a GRB close by within the Milky Way could have been the cause of one or more of the past extinction events. It also proved that a future such nearby explosion could do the same again.
At present astronomers think that GRBs are caused either by the collapse of a massive star into a black hole, during a supernovae event, or by the merger of two neutron stars. Neither conclusion is proved as yet, though the evidence has eliminated most other theories.
For astronomers this GRB was significant because its strength allowed many different telescopes and detectors to record it, in many different wavelengths. Having such a wealth of information helps them better figure out what happened when the burst occurred.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon, any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The Japanese government has created a new $6.6 billion fund that it will provide to its space agency JAXA, spread out over the next ten years, to help develop the country’s commercial space industry.
The very short article at the link provides little additional information. For example, will JAXA be required to act merely as a customer, buying services from competing private companies, or will it be allowed to use this money to create its own projects that it designs, builds, and owns?
The difference is fundamental. Presently JAXA functions like NASA had for decades, partnering with only a handful of big space companies (Mitsubishi for example) to build its own government rockets and spaceships. The results have been comparable to NASA prior to 2010: Little gets built and whatever is built is overbudget and far behind schedule.
Since NASA accepted the idea of capitalism in space, where it no longer builds or owns much but relies on private enterprise to get it done, things have moved fast. Similarly, India and China have followed suit, and both are getting similar good results.
The unanswered question from this story is whether Japan has finally taken the leap to do it as well. Making this transition can be politically difficult, because the space agencies and big space contractors fight to protect their turf. It is not clear if the Japanese government is willing to fight that battle.
If it doesn’t, however, Japan will continue to be a backwater in space, like Russia,as the rest of the world’s space-faring nations increasingly turn to private enterprise, competition, and (most of all) freedom to get results.
The uncertainty of science: According to high energy data from an instrument on ISS, astronomers found more evidence that the cosmic rays that enter our solar system likely come from nearby supernova remnants.
Current theory posits that the aftermath of supernovae (exploding stars), called supernova remnants, produce these high energy electrons, which are a specific type of cosmic ray. Electrons lose energy very quickly after leaving their source, so the rare electrons arriving at CALET with high energy are believed to originate in supernova remnants that are relatively nearby (on a cosmic scale), Cannady explains.
The study’s results are “a strong indicator that the paradigm that we have for understanding these high-energy electrons—that they come from supernova remnants and that they are accelerated the way that we think they are—is correct,” Cannady says. The findings “give insight into what’s going on in these supernova remnants, and offer a way to understand the galaxy and these sources in the galaxy better.”
The results however do not prove this. Nor do they eliminate the possibility that cosmic rays might also come from other sources outside our galaxy. At present the data is simply too uncertain.
Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!
From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.
“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.
All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.
Rocket Lab has won a new contract with from the Pentagon’s military hypersonic test program to launch a suborbital test vehicle in 2025 using its suborbital version of its Electron rocket, dubbed HASTE.
The hypersonic test vehicle set to fly is called DART AE. It’s a 9.8-foot-long (3 meters), 660-pound (300 kilograms) scramjet-powered technology demonstrator that can reach speeds of up to Mach 7 (seven times the speed of sound; 5,320 mph, or 8,350 kph), according to the Hypersonix website. The mission will demonstrate HASTE’s ‘direct inject’ capability by deploying the Hypersonix payload during ascent, while still within Earth’s atmosphere, according to a Rocket Lab statement.
Rocket Lab has previously announced it has already has contracts to two HASTE launches in 2024, so this new contract is in addition to those. The deal also suggests that the company’s fast adaption of Electron for these suborbital test flights has grabbed this market from Stratolaunch, which had hoped the military would purchase its giant airplane Roc and its own test vehicles for such hypersonic testing.
According to the company’s CEO, Intuitive Machines is pushing to fly two more Nova-C lunar landing missions next year after its first is launched by SpaceX on January 12th and hopefully lands successfully near the Moon’s south pole on January 19th.
Intuitive Machines is working on two more Nova-C landers for its IM-2 and IM-3 missions, also carrying NASA CLPS payloads. The company has not announced launch dates for those missions, but Altemus said he hoped both could take place by the end of 2024.
“We are planning three missions in 2024,” he said, which will depend in part on NASA’s requirements as well as orbital dynamics. Landings at the south polar region of the moon, the target for IM-2, are linked to “seasons” where lighting conditions are optimal for lander operations. IM-3, he said, would happen “a few months” after IM-2.
Though Nova-C will launch after Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander (launching on ULA’s Vulcan rocket), it will get to the Moon quickly, and will attempt its landing first. If successfully it will therefore be the first private payload to do so.
The company’s ambitions for 2024 are laudable, but depend so entirely on everything going perfectly it will not be surprising if they do not pan out. Nor will it reflect badly on the company if just one mission flies in 2024. Landing a robot on another world is hard. For private companies to do it is harder.
Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke
The European Space Agency (ESA) and the American company Voyager Space last week signed an agreement making Voyager’s Starlab space station Europe’s main space station destination, replacing ISS.
Starlab will fulfill that role, at least partially, in the future for the space agencies of individual ESA member states. It’s expected to launch as soon as 2028, with operations set to start in 2029. This will include access for astronaut missions and to conduct research as well as providing opportunities for commercial business development. Starlab is also set to provide a complete “end-to-end” system in low-Earth orbit to which European crews and cargo will journey.
This European deal became more likely when Airbus joined the partnership of Voyager and Lockheed Martin in January 2023. It is also probably why Northrop Grumman in October 2023 abandoned its own space station project and joined this one instead. ESA is a big customer, most likely to guarantee the most profits.
What makes this deal different than ISS is that the station will not be owned by this large government customer. The companies building Starlab — led by Voyager — will be free to sell its services to anyone who wishes to use it. This deal also means that NASA and ESA will be going separate ways after ISS, no longer partnering on a station.
An evening pause: Performed live in Poland, 2015, by the Moniuszko School of Music Symphony Orchestra.
Hat tip Alton Blevins.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
The engineers here will appreciate the technical explanation at the link as to why this is good.
Blue Origin is thought to be one of the three. Whether this sale will happen before or after the December 24th launch of Vulcan is not clear.
The orbiter arrived during one of Mars’s worst global dust storm. It needed to wait months before the atmosphere cleared and it could begin seeing details on the surface, the first of which were the high calderas of Mars’ giant volcanoes.
Click for original image.
Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on June 8, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows the top half of the northwestern interior wall of the central caldera of Pavonis Mons, the center volcano in the string of three giant volcanos found in Mars’ equatorial regions.
The elevation change from the top to the bottom of this picture is about 7,000 feet, though this covers only half the distance down to the floor of the caldera. The picture was taken as part of a survey of this caldera wall.
Volcanic activity here is thought to have ended more than a billion years ago. Thus we are looking at relatively old terrain that has had many eons to be reshaped since the last eruption.
» Read more
Will Harvard really shut down to its racist programs?
Bring a gun to a knife fight: In what is certainly an encouraging sign that many Americans are finally waking up to the utter bankruptcy of modern academia, a group of 1,600 Harvard alumni on November 11, 2023 sent a letter to Harvard demanding it make some forceful response to the growing anti-Semitism on its campus.
Of the group’s six demands, these two stand out as most likely to accomplish some good:
- An immediate plan and robust commitment by the College and University to curb the dissemination of hate speech and to limit the disruptiveness of rallies so that they do not interfere with students’ abilities to participate in their classes, to enter into their own dorms, and to move peacefully through the campus. In particular, we ask for the addition of religion as a targeted category for harassment in the College Handbook and for the University, and the codification of calls for violence targeting civilians as outside of acceptable behavior for University students or faculty.
- The creation of a commission to study the roots of antisemitism on campus by investigating whether aspects of the university curriculum, the DEI framework, faculty training (or the lack thereof), and certain campus events perpetuate unreflective narratives about Jewish people and the state of Israel.
Perseverance’s first set of core samples,
placed on the floor of Jezero Crater
Faced with a strong threat of major budget cuts from the Senate, NASA has decided to “pause” the Mars Sample Return mission (MSR) by ramping back some work to consider major changes to the project.
We brought Steve [Thibault] downtown to be the chief engineer in the Headquarters MSR program office … leading a team that consists of all the implementing centers and our European colleagues to stand back and take a look at the architecture with a fresh set of eyes and figure out not only just how to improve our technical margins and make the mission more robust, but also to see if there are ways to implement it in ways to potentially save costs. We’re also going off and listening to industry and seeing what ideas they have.
While the House had approved NASA’s budget request that exceeded $1 billion to complete the mission (more than double its original price tag), the Senate responded by only allocating one quarter of that, demanding NASA come up with a plan that would match its original budget number. This Senate pressure was enhanced by an independent review that harshly criticized the present design of the project, which involves three NASA centers, European participation, and multiple American companies, all building different components that must all interact perfectly.
According to a tweet today by Elon Musk, he has been informed that the federal government will give its blessing for SpaceX to conduct the second Starship/Superheavy test launch from Boca Chica in time for a Friday November 17, 2023 launch.
The launch window opens at 7 am (Central) and lasts until 11:20 am.
Let us all now bow our heads to our lords and saviors at the FAA and Fish and Wildlife for finally deciding to allow this once-free American to simply do something the government was once forbidden from blocking. The worst part is that the fundamental law that forbids such government interference (its called the Constitution and the Bill of Rights) has not been officially repealed, merely morphed into nothing more than fish wrap while everyone decided to look the other way.
Be warned: Even if by some miracle this second test launch goes perfectly, these government agencies are still not going to allow a quick turn-around for a third launch. No, they will put SpaceX through the same investigatory grind, eating up months. And if the more likely scenario occurs, and the launch does not go perfectly, I guarantee the grind will go on longer.
Sovereign power now resides within Washington, not the people of the United States. The proof is how so many of those people now consider this situation normal and expected.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
The company is targeting a December 2023 test.
After announcing the program allowing private European companies to build their own cargo freighters to bring supplies to space stations and compete for contracts, it appears the European Space Agency (ESA) revised the rules so that the only capsule that meets the specs is being built by The Exploration Company in France. In other words, Europe still doesn’t understand capitalism and competition, and is fixing the game. The result will once again be more failure from ESA.
The Houck Family: Targets of FBI harassment and arrest.
It is surprisng the Gestapo FBI didn’t frog march the mother
and her children to prison as well. Can’t have anyone raising
children to be Christian and upstanding, can we?
Bring a gun to a knife fight: Mark Houck, who was arrested by a Justice Department SWAT team aiming guns and rifles at him and his family and was quickly found innocent of all charges, has now sued the Biden Justice Department and Merrick Garland for committing a “malicious and retaliatory prosecution.”
Actually, two lawsuits were filed. While Houck has sued for $1.1 million, his wife Ryan-Marie Houck is seeking $3.25 million in damages for the mental harm the arrest caused herself and her children.
Ryan-Marie Houck’s complaint describes how profoundly her husband’s arrest has impacted their children, Mark Jr., Ava Marie, Kathryn, Therese, Joshua, Augustine, and Imelda.
“Her children have also suffered immense emotional trauma and physical manifestations of stress that Mrs. Houck has carried alone while her husband was away during his imprisonment and prosecution,” the complaint says. Most tragically of all, her complaint says, Ryan-Marie and Mark Houck have lost three babies through miscarriages “due to the stress of the FBI’s conduct and resulting prosecution.”
“The stress of these events was so difficult that the Houcks have been diagnosed with infertility,” the complaint says.
This story is an update of two previous blacklist columns, in September 2022, just after the arrest, and January 2023, after Houck was found innocent of all charges. From the beginning the charges by the Biden Justice Department could clearly be seen as trumped up and malicious. The original minor pushing incident between Houck and pro-abortion activist — in order to stop that activist from harassing his young son — was so minor that a local court had immediately dismissed it. When Justice renewed those charges Houck told them he would be glad to surrender himself peaceable.
Instead, Justice sent a well-armed large SWAT team to invade his home at 6:30 in the morning, pointing weapons at everyone, including the screaming children. » Read more
Click for image.
Click for interactive map
Though the view has not changed much since early October, when I last posted a Curiosity navigation image looking out across Gale Crater from the present heights of Mount Sharp, today’s image above, taken on November 8, 2023, sol 4001 since the rover landed on Mars, signals the beginning of the monthlong solar conjunction, when all communications with Mars is blocked because the Sun has moved between the Earth and the Red Planet.
Solar conjunction occurs every two years, with this being the sixth conjunction experienced by Curiosity. It officially began on November 6th and is expected to end around November 29th. The picture above however was obtained two days into that conjuction, and is unusual in that it does not have the large drop-outs now seen in many other images taken then, both from Curiosity and Perseverance. We should expect there to be very few additional images before the end of November.
The blue dot in the overview map to the right shows Curiosity’s present position, with the yellow lines indicating roughly the area covered by the picture above. The crater rim is about 20 to 25 miles away, with the peak of Mount Sharp about the same distance away in the opposite direction. The rover has climbed about 2,500 feet, but it still sits about 13,000 feet below the mountain’s peak. Though the photo encompasses Curiosity’s entire route since landing, most of it is out of sight, the lower flanks of Mount Sharp blocking our view.
In a legal battle between the three Spanish high-altitude balloon tourist companies (Zero-2, Halo, and Eos-X), a court in Spain has indicted the latter two for stealing trade secrets from the first.
The case stems from Zero 2 Infinity’s allegations that the people hired to raise money for its space tourism business established two competing firms based on Zero 2 Infinity’s intellectual property.
After asking for extensive documentation to share with potential investors, some of the individuals indicted “changed the logo in the presentations and managed to raise 1 million euros for a company that was just a website with some” computer generated imagery, Jose Mariano Lopez-Urdiales, Zero 2 Infinity founder and CEO, told SpaceNews. “They thought they could do that because Zero 2 Infinity was in financial distress, in part because we were expecting that 1 million euros to arrive.”
…The law in question carries potential penalties “of imprisonment from three to five years” if the secrets in question were “disseminated, revealed, or transferred to third parties” in addition to fines, Spanish attorney Leonardo López Marcos, co-founder of the International Legal Center for Space Sustainability, said by email.
One of the companies, Halo, apparently used the fund-raisers as a go-between so that it never had any direct links to the original company, Zero-2. Of the three companies, Halo has now done the most test flights. Whether this ruling will force it to shut down remains unclear.
SpaceX today successfully launched its third pair of communications satellites for the Luxembourg satellite company SES, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.
The first stage completed its ninth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
83 SpaceX
51 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China 95 to 51 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 95 to 80. SpaceX by itself is now leads the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 83 to 80.
SpaceX today successfully launched 90 payloads on its ninth smallsat Transporter mission, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.
From the link: “There will be 90 payloads on this flight deployed by Falcon 9, including CubeSats, MicroSats, and orbital transfer vehicles carrying an additional 23 spacecraft to be deployed at a later time.”
The first stage completed its twelth flight, landing back at Vandenberg.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
82 SpaceX
51 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China 94 to 51 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 94 to 80. SpaceX by itself is now leads the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 82 to 80.
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
An evening pause: For those like myself who as a kid watched all of Irwin Allen’s sometimes good, often boringly predictable, but always truly cheesy sci-fi television shows, this documentary will bring back memories. Allen’s shows also explain why Star Trek became the phenomenon it did, as it was so much better.
And can you guess the name of the documentary’s narrator/anchor?
Hat tip Robert Pratt.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
The press conference is scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 15, 8:00 pm (Eastern). The mission has targeted launch in 2024.
The company has completed one suborbital flight in March 2023. No word on when further flight tests will take place.
There has also been a shake-up in management. It appears the founders are pushing out the outside investors and their managers.
Designed to reduce signal interference in orbit, some companies want the restrictions eased, others want them tightened, and still others like the status quo. Amazon is leading the group wanted a review of the rules.
For me, this study defines the uncertainty of science. The data is not rich enough to come to any conclusion at all, though the computer modeling suggests one.
In 2022 SpaceX had regulatory problems in India that forced it to exit the market. This new development indicates those problems have been overcome.
Frank Borman, suited up just before
the launch of Apollo 8 in 1968
Frank Borman, who was the commander of both the Gemini 7 manned mission that proved that humans could live in weightlessness for two weeks as well as the Apollo 8 mission to the moon, the first human mission ever to another world, passed away on November 7, 2023 in Montana at the age of 95.
For a detailed obituary, go here. Though still survived by his crewmates on Apollo 8, Jim Lovell and Bill Anders, his death ends that mission’s status as the last fully surviving crew of an Apollo mission.
My experience with Frank Borman was personal, as I interviewed him several times in writing Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8. In fact, he in many ways made the book possible. At the time I was still a relatively new science journalist, with no books to my credit. In trying to reach all three astronauts from Apollo 8, I did many web searches, and though I was able to locate the business numbers of Borman and Lovell, I found it impossible to locate contact information for Bill Anders.
Nonetheless, I started with Borman, and cold-called the car dealership he then owned in Corpus Cristi. When the phone was answered I was astonished to recognize the voice of Borman on the other end saying “How can I help you?” (Apparently it was lunch time, and Borman was holding the fort while his staff went out to eat.)
I immediately asked, “Is this commander Borman?” and got a very skeptical and suddenly doubtful “Yes” in reply. I realized immediately that Borman’s fame meant he was often harassed by fans in ways that could be annoying. I quickly explained who I was and that I wanted to write a history of the Apollo 8 mission, and to do so I wished to personally interview both him and his wife Susan. I explained that I strongly felt the story of the mission couldn’t be told properly without her perspective.
» Read more
Samson’s Switchblade flying car, designed to convert from a car to a small airplane with the touch of a button, has successfully completed its first test flight.
At the Grant Country International Airport in Moses Lake, Washington, the Switchblade lifted off for an exhilarating first flight, reaching an altitude of 500 ft (150 m) and circling around to touch down some six minutes later.
In September the company had the plane perform a number of runway hop tests, but this was the first actual flight. At present the company says it has more than two thousand preorders for the flying car.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who sent them on time but I am late posting them.
This is same all-sizzle-no-steak stuff we’ve seen seeing from the company now for seven years.
They are offering $1.5 per share, about double the share’s present price. If accepted it will be very entertaining to see if this action saves Astra. It surely appears however that these men, Chris Kemp and Adam London, are still firmly committed to the company.
The pseudo-company has raised a lot of cash, and has one successful orbital launch with its first version of this rocket.
The FCC tonight extended SpaceX’s communications license for Starship/Superheavy launch from December 1, 2023 to February 23, 2024.
Though there are a lot of rumors that Fish and Wildlife is about to approve the launch, which will allow the FAA to issue the actual launch license, this extension suggests SpaceX is covering its bets in case the approvals are further delayed, or if they are approved in November weather issues force a delay into December.
I remain pessimistic about a November launch, not because I don’t want it to happen (I do), but because I have no faith in the federal government’s desire to allow it to happen. The bureaucracy has now delayed this launch more than two months (SpaceX was ready to launch in September) and the politics continue to sugges the delays will continue.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay for the link.
Using a Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral, SpaceX tonight successfully launched a cargo Dragon carrying supplies to ISS.
This Dragon capsule is making its second flight. The first stage also completed its second flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral. The capsule itself will dock with ISS early Saturday morning.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
81 SpaceX
51 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India
American private enterprise now leads China 93 to 51 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 93 to 80. SpaceX by itself is once again leading the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 81 to 80.
Lies from CNN
Lies from MSNBC
Before Israel began its full scale ground assault on Gaza and the Hamas tunnels two weeks ago, the general consensus from practically every expert interviewed or writing about the attack assumed it would be long, hard, and difficult, taking many months before Israeli troops were able to take control of the Gaza strip and render Hamas impotent.
A good example of that analysis can be seen in this October 13, 2023 article. To quote:
When the huge force Israel has amassed is finally given the orders to enter Gaza and destroy Hamas, they will face a deeply dug-in, well-armed enemy with thousands of anti-tank weapons, drones, and small arms on the most complex battlefield there is. Hamas will be fighting from tunnels, sewers, and strong points set up in high-rise buildings and rubble. They will rake incoming troops with machine guns from alleyways and windows, as well as employ heavier weapons from rooftops and prepared cover, and then melt into the urban maze that makes up much of the Gaza Strip. There will be no element of surprise for this sojourn into deeply hostile territory.
Israeli troops “will face the greatest challenge of their lifetime,” John Spencer, chairman of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point told The War Zone. “Attacking a defended city like this will be combat in hell. I do believe they can do it, but the cost will be high in urban warfare like this, since they will be attacking multiple cities.”
All the experts generally predicted the offensive would take months, and would involve huge casualties on the Israeli side.
I however predicted that the offensive, though not easy, would unfold far faster than these predictions.
This invasion will not be easy, but I also suspect it will not be as hard as many have suggested. Hamas’s power is mostly that of a bully, all threats and violence against the weak and helpless, with little real military capabilities. Israel now enraged is neither weak nor helpless. It will steadily but implacably work its way through Hamas’s tunnel system, but I think it will do so within a month.
Based on this report today, the experts now admit their pessimistic assessments were all wrong, and my analysis was right.
» Read more
