SpaceX this morning successfully placed another 25 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.
The first stage completed its sixth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
The 2026 launch race:
10 SpaceX
5 China
1 Rocket Lab
Link here. The point the op-ed makes is fundamental: AI cannot add anything to the information it has. It might be able to compile that information well, but its analysis is always going to be limited because it has no true creative spirit. It is merely a software program, albeit a very sophisticated one.
This quote from the essay will give you the sense:
Maybe you just use AI to clarify your thoughts. Turn the mottle of ideas in your head into coherent communicable paragraphs. It’s OK, you say, because you’re reviewing the results, and often editing the output. You’re ending up with exactly what you want to say, just in a form and style that’s better than any way you could have put it yourself.
But is what you end up with really your thoughts? And what if everyone started doing that?
Stripping the novelty and personality out of all communication; turning every one of our interactions into homogeneous robotic engagements? Every birthday greeting becomes akin to a printed hallmark card. Every eulogy turns into a stamp-card sentiment. Every email follows the auto-response template suggested by the browser.
We do this long enough and eventually we begin to lose the ability to communicate our inner thoughts to others. Our minds start to think in terms of LLM prompts. All I need is the gist of what I want to say, and the system fills in the blanks. [emphasis in original]
Comments are of course welcome. But please read the full essay before doing so.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
According to a press release yesterday from the Applied Physics Lab (APL) in Maryland that is building the Dragonfly helicopter that is going to Saturn’s moon Titan, the rotors have completed the first round of testing, and are now about to undergo “fatigue and cryogenic trials under simulated Titan conditions.”
Over five weeks, from August into September, the team evaluated the performance of Dragonfly’s rotor system — which provides the lift for the lander to fly and enables it to maneuver — in Titan-like conditions, looking at aeromechanical performance factors such as stress on the rotor arms, and effects of vibration on the rotor blades and lander body. In late December, the team also wrapped up a set of aerodynamics tests on smaller-scale Dragonfly rotor models in the TDT [Transonic Dynamics Tunnel].
This quote about the manufacture of the rotors however stood out the most:
Pennington and team cut Dragonfly’s first rotors on Nov. 1, 2024. They refined the process as they went: starting with waterjet paring of 1,000-pound aluminum blocks, followed by rough machining, cover fitting, vent-hole drilling, and hole-threading. After an inspection, the parts were cleaned, sent out for welding, and returned for final finishing.
“We didn’t have time or materials to make test parts or extras, so every cut had to be right the first time,” Pennington said, adding that the team also had to find special tools and equipment to accommodate some material changes and design tweaks. [emphasis mine]
In other words, this is another hardware-poor NASA project. What they build is what they have. No time or money for testing of prototypes.
This mission is really pushing the envelope, possibly more than any NASA planetary probe in a half century. I just hope they get it right.
I’m shocked, shocked! According to news reports in Russia yesterday, Roscosmos has now delayed the initial launches for its own copycat “Starlink” constellation because the production of the satellites has fallen behind schedule.
In September 2025, Roscosmos head Dmitry Bakanov promised that by the end of 2025, the first 300 satellites would begin to be deployed in orbit as part of the Rassvet project. They are supposed to become “an analogue of the Starlink system” and provide “access to the internet at any geographical point.”
According to the publication, the postponement of the launch of the first 16 devices until 2026 may be due to the fact that the required number of satellites has not yet been assembled.
The project is being run by a Bureau 1440, supposedly a private Russian commercial company that is providing two thirds of the $5.7 billion budget, with the Russian government picking up the difference. It claims it will begin launching this year and have 318 satellites in orbit by 2028.
Wanna bet? Russia has not been able to complete any space project on time in decades, and even when its projects do finally launch, each routinely has had serious technical and quality control issues.
Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!
From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.
“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.
All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.
Screen capture from video of the RFA-1
test failure in August 2024. Note the flame
shooting out sideways.
The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday awarded the German rocket startup Rocket Factory Augsburg a two-launch contract under its “Flight Ticket Initiative”, designed to encourage the development of a commercial independent European launch market.
With these signatures between ESA and Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), two more missions will be launched with the RFA One rocket from Saxavord Spaceport in the UK as part of the Flight Ticket Initiative. ESA and the European Commission have thus once again placed their trust in RFA as a future launch service provider.
…The Lurbat mission will fly a collection of demonstrator technologies and is developed by Added Value Solutions based in Spain. … A second mission will see the launch of two CubeSats developed under ESA contract by the Spanish company Indra Space. The CubeSats will hold five experiments selected by the European Commission through the Horizon Europe IOD/IOV call for Expression of Interest
Rocket Factory also has a launch contract with the German government. However it needs to first complete the first launch of its RFA-1 rocket. That launch was originally supposed to occur in 2024 but was canceled when the rocket’s first stage was destroyed during a static fire test on its Saxavord launchpad that year.
Since then the company has released little information about the rocket’s status. According to this news report today, it hopes to finally do that test launch this year. It better do it soon, as there is a slew of other European rocket companies that intend to do the same.
And then of course there is the question of the Saxavord spaceport and the red tape that has crippled all the spaceports in Great Britain. Both Saxavord and Rocket Factory have previously gotten their launch licenses from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), but it is unclear if those licenses remain valid, especially after the static fire explosion. Based on its past behavior, the CAA could have pulled the licenses, and is now reviewing the whole thing.
If so, it might take years for both to get an approval again. In fact, this might very well be the reason Rocket Factory didn’t launch in 2025.
Embedded below the fold.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
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Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke
An evening pause: Who needs an orchestra when you have a modern synthesizer, properly programmed?
Hat tip Cotour.
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
The New Glenn first stage after landing
in November.
In a sign that Blue Origin’s CEO David Limp is beginning to reshape the previously slow culture of the company, it announced yesterday that its next New Glenn launch, set for no earlier than late Feburary, will reuse the first stage that the company successfully landed on the last New Glenn flight in November 2025.
If this launch takes place as scheduled, it will mean Blue Origin was also able to inspect, refurbish as necessary, and prepare that used first stage in a little over three months. While not as fast as SpaceX is now doing with its Falcon 9 first stages, it is still remarkably fast, considering it is the first booster Blue Origin has recovered. SpaceX didn’t attempt its first reuse of a recovered first stage for a little more than a year after its first successful landing.
Of course, SpaceX was breaking new ground, so more caution and engineering work was needed. Blue Origin has the advantage of almost a decade of experience to draw upon. Nonetheless, Blue Origin’s decision to reuse so quickly is still impressive. It suggests its engineering behind New Glenn is very robust.
Limp still has work to do, however, to get Blue Origin operating with the speed matching SpaceX. This third launch of New Glenn will place an AST SpaceMobile Bluebird satellite into orbit, because the original payload, Blue Origin’s unmanned Blue Moon MK1 lunar lander, wasn’t ready as planned, and is still undergoing final ground check-ups.
An evening pause: Performed live 2009.
I must ask: It seems almost no one in pop music writes gentle ballads like this any longer. Everything must pound, with beautiful melody no longer a major consideration.
Fake leftist scientist Michael Mann
In the never-ending legal battle between fake climate scientist Michael Mann and his critics, Rand Simberg and Mark Steyn, Mann has once again lost badly in an appeal to a higher court, with the Superior Court in DC not only ruling that Mann must immediately pay Simberg and Steyn a total of more than $27K in court costs and fees, but blasting Mann for his lies to the court during the proceedings.
The fact remains that Dr. Mann throughout this litigation complained that he suffered lost grant funding directly stemming from the defamatory statements of Messrs. Simberg and Steyn, while providing very little in the way of specifics about the dollar amounts of his losses directly attributable to the statements (such as corroborating testimony from percipient witnesses), all while promising to illuminate the Court at trial. At trial, Dr. Mann elected through his attorneys to present to the jury a blown-up demonstrative, without redaction or explanation, a demonstrative intentionally prepared for its use at trial, which included a budget (loss) amount of $9,713,924.00, when the correct amount, previously corrected during a third round of discovery, was $112,000.
…the Court simply cannot condone such bad faith litigation tactics, particularly in a case that had been zealously litigated across several years and a case involving complicated facts. Thus, the Court’s ruling must stand. It is the Court’s duty to punish and deter bad faith litigation tactics.
In other words, Mann didn’t simply falsify his scientific results, using false data in his infamous hockey stick graph to create the illusion of human-caused global warming, when Simberg and Steyn called him out on this fake science, he tried to sue them using more fake data that was quickly revealed in discovery to be outright lies.
The court has thankfully decided it cannot tolerate such behavior.
What must be understood about Mann is that he is a very typical leftist radical, who thinks that because his cause is just and good, he is somehow immune from any consequences for bad behavior. Such leftists increasingly believe they are allowed to lie, cheat, defame, and even sometimes commit violence, because anyone who disagrees with them is evil. Mann did not do the last item (though many other leftists now are), but he did all the others, and truly believed he could get away with it. He is now finding out otherwise.
Blue Origin announced yesterday that it going to build a major satellite constellation — dubbed TeraWave and comprising more than 5,000 satellites — to provide internet service to the globe while also providing data center capability for those companies that wish to establish space-based cloud computing facilities.
It plans to begin launching satellites in 2027.
As I noted in today’s quick links below, such a story would normally merit a full post, “but considering Blue Origin’s inability to get almost anything off the ground, this proposal doesn’t deserve that much coverage at this point.” I just can’t get excited about any Blue Origin proposal, until they actually start launching it. For almost a decade this company has been making these kind of grand announcements, and has only so far managed to achieve one, its New Glenn rocket. And that has come years late and at a pace that is glacial.
Not surprisingly, the mainstream propaganda press immediately went bonkers over this proposal, immediately declaring most absurdly that TeraWave is already a major challenger to SpaceX’s Starlink constellation. Here are just a few very typical examples:
This adulation by the mainstream press of Bezos is far from unusual. For reasons that baffle me, the propaganda press has consistently considered any project proposal coming from a Jeff Bezos’ company to instantly be God’s gift to humanity. For more than a decade now it has been touting Blue Origin as the company that SpaceX needs to beat, flipping reality on its head. Now it ranks Blue Origin’s TeraWave constellation a major Starlink rival, when it is at least two years from even launching its first satellite.
There is one aspect of this story however that does deserve to be highlighted because it appears no one else is noticing it, which is why I after some thought I decided to write this full post. » Read more
