Tag: asteroids

200-foot-wide asteroid has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032

10:12 am

New data that has refined the solar orbit of 200-foot-wide asteroid discovered in 2024, dubbed 2024 YR4, suggests it has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.

“Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83,” Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”

Amateur astronomer Tony Dunn shared a simulation of the asteroid approach on his X feed. “Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this.”

The asteroid is rated three on the Torino risk scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants close attention from astronomers and an over 1% chance of impact.

Though most reports say the asteroid is about 200 feet across, there is great uncertainty in that number. It could also be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet.

At the moment the risk of impact is still small. If it does occur, there is a chance it could either cause a major airburst similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor impact in 2013 that injured more than 400 people, or even impact the ground or ocean. If it hits the ocean there is a considerable risk of tsunamis. At the moment it appears its path will cross from South America to Africa in the southern hemisphere, but this data remains very uncertain at this time.

Though there will be doom-sayers, overall this is not a world destroyer. It carries some risk, but we have eight years to refine our knowledge significantly, especially when it will make a close approach of five million miles in 2028. At that time scientists should be able to better measure its size as well as its future orbit, determining more precisely whether it will even hit the Earth in 2032.

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Engineers confirm OSIRIS-APEX successfully completed its second of six close fly-bys of the Sun

10:19 am

Engineers have now confirmed that the asteroid probe OSIRIS-APEX successfully completed its second of six close fly-bys of the Sun in September, using its solar panels to shield its instruments from the Sun’s heat and light.

On Jan. 23 the mission team completed its review of all the data recorded by the spacecraft and its instruments during the solar pass [about 46 million miles from the Sun]. “There were no surprises, and the spacecraft is operating well,” said Mike Moreau, OSIRIS-APEX deputy project manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

As planned, on Sept. 2, 2024, OSIRIS-APEX passed through perihelion — the phase of its orbit closest to the Sun. The trajectory to Apophis takes the spacecraft much closer to the Sun than it was originally designed for. Between Aug. 1 and Oct. 13, the spacecraft was configured in a special orientation that uses one of the solar arrays to shade the most heat-sensitive components, keeping them within safe operating temperatures.

Because of the improvised orientation during the close approach, full data communications was not possible until months afterward. Only now have engineers completed their analysis.

OSIRIS-APEX original mission was to visit the asteroid Bennu and return samples from it to Earth. Once that mission was successfully completed, the probe was repurposed to go to the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it makes its next close approach to the Earth in April 2029.

I have embedded below a short video showing the spacecraft’s journey to get to Apophis.
» Read more

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Lucy about to do close fly-by of Earth in order to slingshot it towards the orbit of Jupiter

9:33 am

Lucy's future route through the solar system
Lucy’s route to the asteroids. Click for original image.

On December 12, 2024 the asteroid probe Lucy will do a very close fly-by of Earth, dipping to only 220 miles of the ground and thus giving it the velocity to fly through asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter and on to the Trojan asteroids that orbit with Jupiter.

During the gravity assist, the Lucy spacecraft, from Earth’s perspective, will approach from the direction of the Sun. This means that observers on Earth will not be able to see Lucy approaching, as it will be lost in the Sun’s glare. Lucy’s trajectory will bring the spacecraft very close to the Earth, even lower in altitude than the International Space Station. To ensure the safety of the spacecraft as it passes through this region full of Earth-orbiting satellites and debris, NASA has procedures to anticipate and avoid potential collisions. If needed, the spacecraft will execute a small trajectory correction maneuver 12 hours before closest approach to alter the time of closest approach by 1 or 2 seconds — enough to avoid a potential collision.

Shortly after sunset, keen observers in the Hawaiian Islands may be able to catch a glimpse of Lucy as the spacecraft approaches Earth before it passes into Earth’s shadow at 6:14 p.m. HST. Lucy will speed over the continental U.S. in darkness, travelling over 33,000 miles per hour (14.8 kilometers per second), and emerge from Earth’s shadow 20 minutes later at 11:34 p.m. EST. At that time, Lucy may be visible to observers with a telescope in the western regions of Africa and the eastern regions of South America as sunlight reflects off the spacecraft’s large solar panels (observers in the eastern United States will be looking at the much dimmer “back” side of the solar panels, making Lucy harder to see

No imagery is planned for this flyby in order to protect the spacecraft’s science instruments.

After the fly-by, Lucy’s next target will be the main belt asteroid Donaldjohanson in April 2025. Its arrival in Jupiter orbit will follow in 2027.

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Reanalysis of Webb data discovers more than a hundred very small main-belt asteroids

11:42 am

Portrait of all 138 new asteroids
Click for original image.

Using data from the Webb Space Telescope in an unexpected way, astronomers have discovered 138 asteroids in the main asteroid belt, most of which are the smallest so far detected.

The picture to the right shows all 138 asteroids. The researchers had originally used Webb to study the atmospheres of the exoplanets that orbit the star TRAPPIST-1. They then thought, why not see if their data also showed the existence of asteroids in our own solar system. By blinking between multiple images they might spot the movement of solar system objects moving across the field of view. From the press release:

The team applied this approach to more than 10 000 [Webb] images of the TRAPPIST-1 field, which were originally obtained to search for signs of atmospheres around the system’s inner planets. By chance TRAPPIST-1 is located right on the ecliptic, the plane of the solar system where all planets and most asteroids lie and orbit around the Sun. After processing the images, the researchers were able to spot eight known asteroids in the main belt. They then looked further and discovered 138 new asteroids, all within tens of meters in diameter — the smallest main belt asteroids detected to date. They suspect a few asteroids are on their way to becoming near-Earth objects, while one is likely a Trojan — an asteroid that trails Jupiter.

The data is insufficient for most of these objects to chart their orbits precisely. Based on this one single study, however, it suggests that pointing Webb along the ecliptic in almost any direction will detect more such objects. Do this enough and astronomers might actually be able to get a rough census of the asteroid belt’s population.

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ESA and JAXA sign agreement to increase cooperation and accelerate development of Ramses mission to Apophis

10:18 am

The new colonial movement: The European Space Agency (ESA) and Japan’s own space agency JAXA on November 20, 2024 signed a new cooperative agreement to increase their joint work on several missions, the most important of which is the proposed Ramses mission to the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis during its 2029 close fly-by of Earth.

Two agencies agreed to accelerate to study potential cooperation for ESA’s Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety (RAMSES) which aims to explore the asteroid Apophis that will pass close to our planet on 13 April 2029, including but not limited to provision of thermal infrared imager and solar array wings as well as possible launch opportunities.

The two countries are already working together on two different planetary missions, the BepiColombo mission to Mercury and the Hera mission to the asteroid Dymorphos. Both are on their way to their targets. This new agreement solidifies the commitment of both to make sure Ramses is funded, built, and launched in the relatively short time left before that 2029 Earth fly-by. At the moment the ESA has still not officially funded it fully.

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Lab tests suggest water brines could also exist on large asteroids

12:28 pm

Gullies in crater on Vesta
Click for original image.

In attempting to explain the existence of flow features that have been found on the interior walls of craters on the asteroids Ceres and Vesta — as shown in the image above — scientists recently performed a laboratory experiment which determined that a mixture of water and salt could produce those gullies.

The team modified a test chamber at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to rapidly decrease pressure over a liquid sample to simulate the dramatic drop in pressure as the temporary atmosphere created after an impact on an airless body like Vesta dissipates. According to Poston, the pressure drop was so fast that test liquids immediately and dramatically expanded, ejecting material from the sample containers.

“Through our simulated impacts, we found that the pure water froze too quickly in a vacuum to effect meaningful change, but salt and water mixtures, or brines, stayed liquid and flowing for a minimum of one hour,” said Poston. “This is sufficient for the brine to destabilize slopes on crater walls on rocky bodies, cause erosion and landslides, and potentially form other unique geological features found on icy moons.”

The press release makes it sound as if this result makes the existence of subsurface water ice more likely on such asteroids as Ceres and Vesta, but previous research from the Dawn asteroid probe made that fact very clear, especially for Ceres, years ago. All this does is provide some evidence of what might be one process by which these erosion gullies form.

Hat tip to reader Milt.

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ESA awards OHB Italia a preliminary contract to build Ramses probe to Apophis

9:22 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday awarded the company OHB Italia a €63 million preliminary contract to begin work on mission dubbed Ramses that will launch in 2028 and rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it flies past the Earth on April 13, 2029 at a distance of less than 20,000 miles.

The contract award is preliminary because the entire project still has to be approved by the ESA ministral council of nations, meeting in 2025. Because of the short development time, however, ESA’s management found funds from its existing budget to begin work.

To speed work, the project is also using as its design basis the Hera asteroid spacecraft, which was recently launched to study the binary asteroids Didymos-Dimorphos. That mission was also built remarkably fast for a European space project, going from contract to launch in just four years.

NASA has already re-tasked its OSIRIS-REx asteroid mission to head for Apophis, renaming it OSIRIS-APEX for reasons that baffle me. The mission had successfully delivered samples from the asteroid Bennu, but after completing that mission had sufficient fuel and was well placed to do this additional rendezvous as well.

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Scientists: most asteroids come from a limited number of earlier break-ups

10:04 am

According to three different recently published papers (available here, here, and here), the majority of all meteorites hitting the Earth likely came from a limited number of specific past break-ups of larger asteroids.

New studies show that 70% of the 70,000 meteorites that have been found on Earth have come from 3 recent collisions in the main asteroid belt which sits between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. The collisions occurred 5.8, 7.5 and 40 million years ago, according to the studies. They correspond to 3 young asteroid “families” known as Karin, Koronis and Massalia. These families formed from the destruction of asteroids at least 30km across.

The 70% number comes from data in the last two papers above, while the first paper claims it is more like 80% of all asteroids. The Massalia family is the most dominate, with it estimated to be the source 37% of all meteorites as well as a major impact half a billion years ago.

The first study also found that both Ryugu and Bennu came from the same event and are part of another family of asteroids called Polana.

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First test images sent back by Hera asteroid probe

9:19 am

The Earth and Moon system as seen by Hera
Click for original image.

During its initial in-space commissioning to make sure everything is working properly after an October 7, 2024 launch, engineers have successfully taken the first test images by Hera asteroid probe, proving those instruments are operating as intended.

The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the spacecraft’s mid-infrared camera, and shows both the Earth (lower left) and the Moon (upper right) as seen from a little less than a million miles away. Once Hera reaches the binary asteroid system of Didymos and Dimorphos, this instrument will be used to measure the changes of temperature on the asteroids’ surface.

Images of Earth taken by two other instruments proved those instruments were functioning properly as well.

Hera is a European Space Agency (ESA) follow-up asteroid mission to see up close what changes were caused to Dimorphos by the impact of NASA’s Dart mission in 2022. It will rendezvous with the asteroid in late 2026 after flying past Mars and its moon Deimos in earlier that year. It will then spend about a half year flying in formation with the asteroids before a planned landing in late July 2027.

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Mitsuibishi’s H3 rocket wins launch contract from UAE

8:55 am

Capitalism in space: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) yesterday announced that it has awarded the launch contract for its first unmanned probe to the asteroid belt to the Japanese company Mitsuibishi and its new H3 rocket.

The UAE Space Agency (UAESA) announced Oct. 10 it selected Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to launch its Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt (EMA) on an H3 rocket in the first quarter of 2028. Terms of the contract were not disclosed.

The spacecraft, also known as MBR Explorer after Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, will fly by six main belt asteroids between 2030 and 2033 before rendezvousing on a seventh, Justitia, in 2034, later deploying a lander.

This mission is the third that the UAE has selected MHI to launch. An H-2A rocket launched the Emirates Mars Mission, a Mars orbiter, in 2020, while KhalifaSat, a remote sensing satellite, launched as a secondary payload on another H-2A in 2018.

What makes this launch contract different from the previous two is that the winner is Mitsubishi. Previous awards went through Japan’s space agency JAXA, which appeared to manage the H2A entirely. Now, Mitsubishi is in control, and is working directly with its customer.

This change proves that Japan’s government effort to promote private enterprise in space is real, that though it has been slow to wrest bureaucratic control from JAXA, that wresting is happening nonetheless.

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SpaceX launches Europe’s Hera asteroid mission

8:41 am

SpaceX today successfully launched the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Hera asteroid mission to the binary asteroid Didymos and Dimorphos, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its 23rd rocket, but was not recovered in order to maximum the fuel used to send Hera on its proper route. The fairings completed their 13th and 19th flights respectively.

Hera will do a follow-up rendezvous with the binary asteroids to get a close-up look at the consequences of the Dart impact back in 2022 of Dimorphos.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

96 SpaceX
44 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 113 to 67, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 96 to 84.

For SpaceX, this launch ties the record the company set last year for the number of launches of a private company in a single year, and it did so in just more than three-quarters of the year. The company’s goal of 144 launches in 2024 remains possible, assuming the federal government stopped blocking its operations. For example, the FAA granted the company permission for this one launch, but maintained its grounding of further launches because an upper stage did not land safely in the ocean in the exact right spot.

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Engineers set new laser communications record to asteroid probe Psyche

9:16 am

Psyche-Earth laser communications record
Click for original graphic.

As part of a continuing test program, engineers have set a new long distance laser communications record, exceeding 290 million miles, by successfully using a laser to send communicate with the asteroid probe Psyche from Earth.

The graph to the right, not to scale, shows the orbital configuation of the laser record. It appears however that little actual data was sent in this last test. It merely demonstrated that a link could be established. An actual data transfer record by laser occurred in June.

On June 24, when Psyche was about 240 million miles (390 million kilometers) from Earth — more than 2½ times the distance between our planet and the Sun — the project achieved a sustained downlink data rate of 6.25 megabits per second, with a maximum rate of 8.3 megabits per second. While this rate is significantly lower than the experiment’s maximum, it is far higher than what a radio frequency communications system using comparable power can achieve over that distance.

The high data rates promised by laser communications will significantly improve deep space operations. Most especially, the ability to get data back in much larger packets more quickly will reduce the antenna bottleneck on Earth that limits the number of missions as well as the data can be returned daily. More missions will be able to fly, and scientists and engineers will get their results faster.

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Scientists detect jets of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide from asteroid

9:45 am

Jets from asteroid
Click for original graphic.

Using the spectroscopy from the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have now detected jets of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide spewing from the very active asteroid 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann-1 (29P).

Based on the data gathered by Webb, the team created a 3D model of the jets to understand their orientation and origin. They found through their modeling efforts that the jets were emitted from different regions on the centaur’s nucleus, even though the nucleus itself cannot be resolved by Webb. The jets’ angles suggest the possibility that the nucleus may be an aggregate of distinct objects with different compositions; however, other scenarios can’t yet be excluded.

The graphic to the right illustrates the modeling of these jets. That the center of this two-lobed asteroid could have been created from distinct objects suggests a very complex formation process, since those objects would have had to have formed themselves in different locations in the solar system and then somehow come together.

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Newly discovered potentially dangerous asteroid found to be a contact binary

11:38 am

Radar images of asteroid 2024ON
Click for original image.

Radar images taken during the close fly of a newly discovered potentially dangerous asteroid has revealed that it is a contact binary, formed by two objects stuck together to produce a single asteroid with a peanutlike shape.

Discovered by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on Mauna Loa in Hawaii on July 27, the near-Earth asteroid’s shape resembles that of a peanut. Like the asteroid 2024 JV33 that made close approach with Earth a month earlier, 2024 ON is likely a contact binary, with two rounded lobes separated by a pronounced neck, one lobe about 50% larger than the other. The radar images determined that it is about 755 feet (350 meters) long. Features larger than 12.3 feet (3.75 meters) across can be seen on the surface. Bright radar spots on the asteroid’s surface likely indicate large boulders. The images show about 90% of one rotation over the course of about six hours.

The radar images were taken one day before that close approach of 620,000 miles on September 17, 2024, and once again show that a large number of near-Earth asteroids, as much as 14%, are contact binaries. The data also helped better refine 2024ON’s orbit around the Sun, which show that though the asteroid has the potential to hit the Earth, its path will not do so for the foreseeable future.

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NASA asks space industry for proposals on using the shelved Janus probes on mission to Apophis

9:23 am

NASA has now put out a request for proposals from the space industry for refitting the two Janus planetary probes, whose asteroid mission was shelved when its launch as a secondary payload was delayed due to problems with the Psyche primary payload, as a mission to the asteroid Apophis in connection with its April 13, 2029 close approach to the Earth.

NASA has been studying this new mission goal since early 2023, but apparently had failed to come up with a plan. It is now asking the private sector for suggestions on getting it done, including finding the funding for any plans.

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Two-lobed asteroid imaged by radar

10:04 am

Two-lobed asteroid
Click for original image.

During the August 18, 2024 first close fly-by of a potentially-dangerous asteroid only discovered back in May, astronomers used the Goldstone dish in California to produce the high resolution radar images shown in the picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here.

The images were captured when the asteroid was at a distance of 2.8 million miles (4.6 million kilometers), about 12 times the distance between the Moon and Earth.

Discovered by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey in Tucson, Arizona, on May 4, the near-Earth asteroid’s shape resembles that of a peanut – with two rounded lobes, one lobe larger than the other. Scientists used the radar images to determine that it is about 980 feet (300 meters) long and that its length is about double its width. Asteroid 2024 JV33 rotates once every seven hours.

Asteroids formed as contact binaries, once considered the stuff of science fiction, have now been found to be relatively common, comprising about 14% of the near Earth asteroids larger than 700 feet across that have been radar-imaged. The refined orbital data suggests this asteroid might be a dead comet, though that conclusion is unconfirmed. That orbital data also tells us that though this object has the potential of hitting the Earth, it will not do so “for the foreseeable future.”

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Was the Chicxulub bolide 65 million years ago an asteroid from beyond Jupiter?

9:21 am

According to a new study, the Chicxulub bolide that impacted the Yucatan 65 million years ago and is thought to have been a major cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs was likely a carbonaceous-type asteroid from beyond Jupiter.

The researchers attempted to pinpoint the nature of that bolide by analyzing the isotope samples from the thin layer of materials found worldwide that corresponds to the impact (dubbed the K-Pg boundary) as well number of different impact samples from different layers.

To address these questions, Mario Fischer-Gödde and colleagues evaluated ruthenium (Ru) isotopes in samples taken from the K-Pg boundary. For comparison, they also analyzed samples from five other asteroid impacts from the last 541 million years, samples from ancient Archaean-age (3.5 – 3.2 billion-years-old) impact-related spherule layers, and samples from two carbonaceous meteorites.

Ficher-Gödde et al. found that the Ru isotope signatures in samples from the K-Pg boundary were uniform and closely matched those of carbonaceous chondrites (CCs), not Earth or other meteorite types, suggesting that the Chicxulub impactor likely came from a C-type asteroid that formed in the outer Solar System. They also rule out a comet as the impactor. Ancient Archean samples also suggest impactors with a CC-like composition, indicating a similar outer Solar System origin and perhaps representing material that impacted during Earth’s final stages of accretion. In contrast, other impact sites from different periods showed Ru isotope compositions consistent with S-type (salicaceous) asteroids from the inner Solar System.

My headline poses this result as a question because these results are unconfirmed, and based on a very small sample of data. Nonetheless, this research not only gives us a better idea of the nature of the Chicxulub impactor, it does the same for a number of other important past impacts. That data in turn will help theorists refine their theories describing the early formation history of the solar system.

Sidebar: As always, there are numerous stories today in the mainstream press going ga-ga over this paper and declaring with certainty the utter truth of its conclusions. This of course is junk reporting, as there is no utter truth here, only some educated speculation based on some new data.

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Webb data suggests the possibility of ice and hydrated minerals on surface of Psyche

9:33 am

Using the Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have detected evidence of hydrated minerals and even possibly a very tiny amount of water ice on the surface of the metal asteroid Psyche.

The Webb data point to hydroxyl and perhaps water on Psyche’s surface. The hydrated minerals could result from external sources, including impactors. If the hydration is native or endogenous, then Psyche may have a different evolutionary history than current models suggest. “Asteroids are leftovers from the planetary formation process, so their compositions vary depending on where they formed in the solar nebula,” said SwRI’s Dr. Anicia Arredondo, another co-author. “Hydration that is endogenous could suggest that Psyche is not the remnant core of a protoplanet. Instead, it could suggest that Psyche originated beyond the ‘snow line,’ the minimum distance from the Sun where protoplanetary disc temperatures are low enough for volatile compounds to condense into solids, before migrating to the outer main belt.”

However, the paper found the variability in the strength of the hydration features across the observations implies a heterogeneous distribution of hydrated minerals. This variability suggests a complex surface history that could be explained by impacts from carbonaceous chondrite asteroids thought to be very hydrated.

You can read the research paper here [pdf]. The actual amount of water possible is at most 39 parts per million and is also an order of magnitude lower than that found on the Moon, which strongly suggests that it comes from outside sources, such as impacts from other asteroids, not from the inherent geological history of Psyche itself.

The uncertainties of this research, which are large, which should be resolved when the probe Psyche, launched last year, reaches the asteroid Psyche in August 2029.

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WISE/NEOWISE space telescope mission ends after fourteen years

9:11 pm

Comet NEOWISE, photographed by the Hubble Space Telescope
Click for full image.

Launched in 2009, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) was shut down today after almost fourteen years of successful observations, with its first years dedicated to creating an infrared survey of the sky. In 2013, after two years of hibernation, it was reactivated and renamed NEOWISE (for reasons that I have always found absurd), with the goal over the next thirteen years of mapping the sky for near Earth objects.

By repeatedly observing the sky from low Earth orbit, NEOWISE created all-sky maps featuring 1.45 million infrared measurements of more than 44,000 solar system objects. Of the 3,000-plus near-Earth objects it detected, 215 were first spotted by NEOWISE. The mission also discovered 25 new comets, including the famed comet C/2020 F3 NEOWISE that streaked across the night sky in the summer of 2020.

A Hubble image of that comet is to the right.

The mission was ended because the telescope’s orbit is now too low to provide good data. It is expected to re-enter the atmosphere and burn up before the end of the year.

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Gaia space telescope identifies more than 350 asteroids with candidate moons

9:24 am

Using the Gaia space telescope, astronomers have identified 352 asteroids that the data suggests have smaller satellite asteroids in orbit around them.

In its data release 3, Gaia precisely pinpointed the positions and motions of 150 000+ asteroids — so precisely that scientists could dig deeper and hunt for asteroids displaying the characteristic ‘wobble’ caused by the tug of an orbiting companion (the same mechanism as displayed here for a binary star). Gaia also gathered data on asteroid chemistry, compiling the largest ever collection of asteroid ‘reflectance spectra’ (light curves that reveal an object’s colour and composition).

These results need to be confirmed by direct observation, as this method does involve some assumptions and uncertainties. If these numbers are confirmed however it will give planetary scientists a better census on the percentage of asteroids with moons, which in turn can be used to create better models of the formation of the solar system as well as the evolution of asteroids over time. At the moment scientists predict about one out of every six asteroids will have a moon. This data suggests that number might be high.

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