Russian meteorologists predict very cold winter
Global warming? Russian meteorologists are predicting one of the coldest winters in centuries.
Global warming? Russian meteorologists are predicting one of the coldest winters in centuries.
Tag: climate
Russian meteorologists predict very cold winter
Antarctic increase in sea ice since 1970 cannot be explained by ozone hole
In another paper published today in the Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union, researchers have found, according to their computer model, that the increase in sea ice since 1970 in Antarctica cannot be explained by the ozone hole. (Note that the sea ice has been shrinking in the northern hemisphere while it has been growing in the south.) Key quote from paper:
It is presently unclear why the observed Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are so different from those in the Northern Hemisphere. Previous studies have suggested that the cause might be related to atmospheric circulation changes induced by the stratospheric ozone hole. The results in this study are not consistent with this view and highlight the need for continued investigations of Antarctic sea ice extent trends.
In another paper published today in the Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union, researchers have found, according to their computer model, that the increase in sea ice since 1970 in Antarctica cannot be explained by the ozone hole. (Note that the sea ice has been shrinking in the northern hemisphere while it has been growing in the south.) Key quote from paper:
It is presently unclear why the observed Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are so different from those in the Northern Hemisphere. Previous studies have suggested that the cause might be related to atmospheric circulation changes induced by the stratospheric ozone hole. The results in this study are not consistent with this view and highlight the need for continued investigations of Antarctic sea ice extent trends.
Modern climate models can’t predict sudden climate change
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union says that the general circulation climate models used by scientists today to predict things like global warming cannot predict past examples of similar sudden climate change. Key quote from abstract:
These [sudden] shifts are thus noise induced with very limited predictability, and early detection of them in the future might be wishful thinking.
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union says that the general circulation climate models used by scientists today to predict things like global warming cannot predict past examples of similar sudden climate change. Key quote from abstract:
These [sudden] shifts are thus noise induced with very limited predictability, and early detection of them in the future might be wishful thinking.
The Snowbird Human-Powered Ornithopter
An evening pause: August 2, 2010: The first flight of a human powered ornithopter, an aircraft propelled by flapping wings.
An evening pause: August 2, 2010: The first flight of a human powered ornithopter, an aircraft propelled by flapping wings.
Glacier ice loss less than thought
A new study suggests that the glacier ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland is less than originally thought.
A new study suggests that the glacier ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland is less than originally thought.
Now it’s “global cooling”!
So now that the “global warming” narrative is beginning to fall flat (sorry John Holdren, but I refuse to play your game and call it “global climate disruption”), what do the elite apparachiks worldwide decide to do? They get together in a private meeting in Spain in June to discuss the future threat from global cooling.
What was that? Did I hear you right? Did you say “global cooling?”
Yup. Key quote from the meeting announcement:
The 58th Bilderberg Meeting will be held in Sitges, Spain 3 – 6 June 2010. The Conference will deal mainly with Financial Reform, Security, Cyber Technology, Energy, Pakistan, Afghanistan, World Food Problem, Global Cooling, Social Networking, Medical Science, EU-US relations. Approximately 130 participants will attend of whom about two-thirds come from Europe and the balance from North America. About one-third is from government and politics, and two-thirds are from finance, industry, labor, education, and communications. The meeting is private in order to encourage frank and open discussion. [emphasis mine]
If it’s not one thing, it’s another. The goal has never been to save the Earth, but to grab power. Now that the public is questioning the reality of the global warming meme, these blowhards have to come up with some other crisis they can use to maintain their positions of power and control. And if it isn’t getting hotter, maybe it’s getting cooler? Never mind the facts or the science, which remains confused and complex. All they want is some justification, no matter how unjustified, for telling everyone else how to live their lives.
One more thought: How much do you want to bet that a good majority of the participants (the full list) flew in on private jets?
James Delingpole of the Telegraph uncovered this little tidbit, and has some blunt but very true words to say about it.
The double vortex at Venus’s south pole is gone
Using data accumulated over the past four years by Venus Express, scientists have shown that the giant double vortex storm at Venus’s south pole was only a temporary phenomenon. You can download the actual paper here [pdf]. Key quote from the paper:
The polar region of Venus shows a dynamics regime quite different than the rest of the planet, with a separation region delimited by the cold collar zone. Average wind speeds presents an almost solid body rotation, while instantaneous view highlights the complex dynamic structure with air flowing almost toward all directions. The so called dipole shape is not a stable feature and the morphology of the vortex is significantly variable on both short and long timescales.
The “cold collar” is an atmospheric ring of colder temperatures that encircles the planet’s poles.
Using data accumulated over the past four years by Venus Express, scientists have shown that the giant double vortex storm at Venus’s south pole was only a temporary phenomenon. You can download the actual paper here [pdf]. Key quote from the paper:
The polar region of Venus shows a dynamics regime quite different than the rest of the planet, with a separation region delimited by the cold collar zone. Average wind speeds presents an almost solid body rotation, while instantaneous view highlights the complex dynamic structure with air flowing almost toward all directions. The so called dipole shape is not a stable feature and the morphology of the vortex is significantly variable on both short and long timescales.
The “cold collar” is an atmospheric ring of colder temperatures that encircles the planet’s poles.
The sun influences the climate, admit the powers-that-be
Will wonders never cease? The sun actually does influence the climate, the powers-that-be admit at last.
Will wonders never cease? The sun actually does influence the climate, the powers-that-be admit at last.
Pressure mounting for Rajendra Pachauri to resign as IPCC head
Pressure seems to be mounting for Rajendra Pachauri to resign as head of the IPCC. Key quote:
“It’s vital that this body is led by someone whose academic and intellectual credentials are unquestioned and I’m afraid that can no longer be said of him.”
Pressure seems to be mounting for Rajendra Pachauri to resign as head of the IPCC. Key quote:
“It’s vital that this body is led by someone whose academic and intellectual credentials are unquestioned and I’m afraid that can no longer be said of him.”
White House tries rebranding global warming
Rather than address the many questions people have about climate research (questionable research, unclear data, corrupt scientists), the White House has come up with a much better approach: Change the name of “global warming” to “global climate disruption.” Now, doesn’t that explain everything?
Rather than address the many questions people have about climate research (questionable research, unclear data, corrupt scientists), the White House has come up with a much better approach: Change the name of “global warming” to “global climate disruption.” Now, doesn’t that explain everything?
Arctic icecap reaches 2010 minimum
It appears that the Arctic icecap has reached its 2010 minimum. Though the icecap extent in the spring was the largest since 2002 (see image below), the melt was fast and the minimum appears to be the third lowest since 1979.
Does this mean the icecap is melting and will disappear shortly, as some politicians like to believe? Hardly. Though the data suggests a long term decline in ice extent, recent trends also show evidence that the icecap might be recovering. What will actually happen is still anyone’s guess.
More data suggests ocean conveyor belt more complex than expected
Back to the climate-theory drawing board: A paper published today in Nature Geoscience suggests that the ocean conveyor belt that brings warm water to the northern Atlantic is far more complex than the original theories proposed. These results strengthen earlier reports that also questioned the conveyor belt theory.
Back to the climate-theory drawing board: A paper published today in Nature Geoscience suggests that the ocean conveyor belt that brings warm water to the northern Atlantic is far more complex than the original theories proposed. These results strengthen earlier reports that also questioned the conveyor belt theory.
Pakistan floods ease Atlantic hurricanes?
A new climate theory: The Pakistani floods and Russian heatwave this summer might explain why the hurricane season going on right now in the North Atlantic started off so slow.
A new climate theory: The Pakistani floods and Russian heatwave this summer might explain why the hurricane season going on right now in the North Atlantic started off so slow.
The melt rate of the icecaps is half what was previously predicted
The uncertainty of science: The melt rate of the icecaps is half what was previously calculated.
The uncertainty of science: The melt rate of the icecaps is half what was previously calculated.
IPCC fail
Meltdown of the climate ‘consensus’. Key quote:
What does the best evidence now tell us? That man-made global warming is a mere hypothesis that has been inflated by both exaggeration and downright malfeasance, fueled by the awarding of fat grants and salaries to any scientist who’ll produce the “right” results. The warming “scientific” community, the Climategate emails reveal, is a tight clique of like-minded scientists and bureaucrats who give each other jobs, publish each other’s papers — and conspire to shut out any point of view that threatens to derail their gravy train.
Meltdown of the climate ‘consensus’. Key quote:
What does the best evidence now tell us? That man-made global warming is a mere hypothesis that has been inflated by both exaggeration and downright malfeasance, fueled by the awarding of fat grants and salaries to any scientist who’ll produce the “right” results. The warming “scientific” community, the Climategate emails reveal, is a tight clique of like-minded scientists and bureaucrats who give each other jobs, publish each other’s papers — and conspire to shut out any point of view that threatens to derail their gravy train.
IPCC needs reform
Better late than never. An independent academic panel has concluded that the IPCC needs reform.
Better late than never. An independent academic panel has concluded that the IPCC needs reform.
The influence of the Sun’s solar cycle on the atmosphere
Scientists have confirmed that the just ending low solar minimum had considerable influence in shrinking the Earth’s outer atmosphere. Key quote:
[The scientist] says the research indicates that the Sun could be going through a period of relatively low activity, similar to periods in the early 19th and 20th centuries. This could mean that solar output may remain at a low level for the near future. “If it is indeed similar to certain patterns in the past, then we expect to have low solar cycles for the next 10 to 30 years.”
Scientists have confirmed that the just ending low solar minimum had considerable influence in shrinking the Earth’s outer atmosphere. Key quote:
[The scientist] says the research indicates that the Sun could be going through a period of relatively low activity, similar to periods in the early 19th and 20th centuries. This could mean that solar output may remain at a low level for the near future. “If it is indeed similar to certain patterns in the past, then we expect to have low solar cycles for the next 10 to 30 years.”
Modern science
Why bother with research when all we need to do is ask our politicians? Scientist Hillary Clinton studies the floods in Pakistan and the forest fires in Russia and declares them both proof that global warming is happening!
Why bother with research when all we need to do is ask our politicians? Scientist Hillary Clinton studies the floods in Pakistan and the forest fires in Russia and declares them both proof that global warming is happening!
More questions raised about Mann’s hockey stick graph
A new research paper, written by statistical scientists and to be published next month in the Annals of Applied Statistics, has found that Michael Mann’s hockey stick graph, showing a steep increase in global temperature in the last two hundred years, is statistically invalid. Key quote:
Research on multi-proxy temperature reconstructions of the earth’s temperature is now entering its second decade. While the literature is large, there has been very little collaboration with university level, professional statisticians (Wegman et al., 2006; Wegman, 2006). Our paper is an effort to apply some modern statistical methods to these problems. While our results agree with the climate scientists findings in some respects, our methods of estimating model uncertainty and accuracy are in sharp disagreement.
[We] conclude unequivocally that the evidence for a ”long-handled” hockey stick (where the shaft of the hockey stick extends to the year 1000 AD) is lacking in the data. The fundamental problem is that there is a limited amount of proxy data which dates back to 1000 AD; what is available is weakly predictive of global annual temperature. Our backcasting methods, which track quite closely the methods applied most recently in Mann (2008) to the same data, are unable to catch the sharp run up in temperatures recorded in the 1990s, even in-sample. [emphasis mine]
In other words, the temperature data going back to 1000 AD is poor, and cannot be reliably used to prove a sudden increase in global temperature in the last two hundred years. More importantly, according to this paper, Michael Mann tried to use statistics to prove his point, without consulting any statisticians.
Doubts about GISS data in the Himalayas
Willis Eschenbach at WattsUpWithThat has once again discovered serious questions about the climate temperature data produced by the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).
Willis Eschenbach at WattsUpWithThat has once again discovered serious questions about the climate temperature data produced by the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).
Aqua tracks carbon monoxide over Russia from wildfires
Data from the AIRS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite shows the dramatic increase in carbon monoxide in the atmosphere at 18,000 feet over Russia due to the wildfires there. Key quote from press release:
The concentration of carbon monoxide is continuing to grow. According to Aug. 4 NASA estimates, the smoke plume from the fires spans about 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) from east to west.
Data from the AIRS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite shows the dramatic increase in carbon monoxide in the atmosphere at 18,000 feet over Russia due to the wildfires there. Key quote from press release:
The concentration of carbon monoxide is continuing to grow. According to Aug. 4 NASA estimates, the smoke plume from the fires spans about 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) from east to west.
Russian accuses U.S. of causing heat wave
Let’s have some conspiracy silliness. A Russian political scientist is claiming that the U.S. military “is using climate-change weapons to alter the temperatures and crop yields of Russia and other Central Asian countries.”
Let’s have some conspiracy silliness. A Russian political scientist is claiming that the U.S. military “is using climate-change weapons to alter the temperatures and crop yields of Russia and other Central Asian countries.”
NOAA hurricane prediction update
NOAA has issued an update on its annual hurricane prediction, calling for an active season with 14 to 20 named storms. This prediction is in conjunction with the formation of the cool La Niña in the mid-Pacific Ocean.
NOAA has issued an update on its annual hurricane prediction, calling for an active season with 14 to 20 named storms. This prediction is in conjunction with the formation of the cool La Niña in the mid-Pacific Ocean.
AO goes positive
After a very long winter where the Arctic Oscillation has been deeply negative, setting records and resulting in very cold conditions in the northern hemisphere, the oscillation has finally entered its positive phase in the last month.
After a very long winter where the Arctic Oscillation has been deeply negative, setting records and resulting in very cold conditions in the northern hemisphere, the oscillation has finally entered its positive phase in the last month.
Newest ice core in Greenland hits bedrock
After two summers of drilling the newest Greenland ice core finally hit bedrock on July 27 at a depth of more than 1.5 miles. Hopefully the ice layers from this deep core will provide additional information about the Earth’s climate going back as far as 130,000 years.
After two summers of drilling the newest Greenland ice core finally hit bedrock on July 27 at a depth of more than 1.5 miles. Hopefully the ice layers from this deep core will provide additional information about the Earth’s climate going back as far as 130,000 years.
Open water at the North Pole
Steve Goddard notes the state of ice at the North Pole, both then and now, with pictures.
Steve Goddard notes the state of ice at the North Pole, both then and now, with pictures.
Met office report
The Met Office in the United Kingdom has issued a report on the state of the climate. In it they state unequivocally that the “world is warming”. Unfortunately, the report fails to address the questions that have been raised about much of the existing climate data, following the climategate scandal.
The Met Office in the United Kingdom has issued a report on the state of the climate. In it they state unequivocally that the “world is warming”. Unfortunately, the report fails to address the questions that have been raised about much of the existing climate data, following the climategate scandal.
Closing out debate on climate
It appears that McCarthyism and the blacklist are both alive and well, thriving happily in the field of climate research. Key quote:
It is disturbing, to say the least, that organisations and persons who would be quick to claim professional status consider that it is their current duty to disparage, or to refuse to debate with, or to muzzle scientists whose views on climate change they apparently disagree with.
Read the whole article.
It appears that McCarthyism and the blacklist are both alive and well, thriving happily in the field of climate research. Key quote:
It is disturbing, to say the least, that organisations and persons who would be quick to claim professional status consider that it is their current duty to disparage, or to refuse to debate with, or to muzzle scientists whose views on climate change they apparently disagree with.
Read the whole article.
Deniers of science
On Saturday (July 24) the American Geophysical Union published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters, entitled “Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10.” This paper attempted to explain the unusually cold 2009-2010 winter, with its record snow falls.
The conclusions of the paper were reasonable, noting that this past winter experienced both an El Nino event in the Pacific as well as a very negative (cold) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). To quote the paper’s conclusions: “In winters when an El Nino event and a negative NAO combine, analysis reveal that there are positive snow anomalies across the southern U.S. and northern Europe.”
The authors of the paper made no attempt to explain why these two climate events “combined” this past winter, which in the field of climate change is actually the essential question. What caused it? Moreover, did the deep and extended negative (cold) phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) contribute as well, and if so, why did the AO also go negative this winter? And finally, were all these climate events somehow related to the Sun’s unusally long and deep solar minimum?
That they didn’t answer these fundamental questions is not surprising. Climotogists have been struggling with them for decades, and to expect this quickly written paper focused on this one climate event — the cold winter of 2009-2010 — to answer them would be unreasonable. In fact, considering the state of our knowledge, it probably is impossible for any paper to answer these questions at this time.
What makes this particular paper really noteworthy, however, is a quote in its introductory paragraphs:
The wintry winter has encouraged deniers of global warming » Read more
Mann and the press
It’s not the crime but the cover-up: Michael Mann refuses to answer reasonable questions from a reporter for The Dailer Caller.
It’s not the crime but the cover-up: Michael Mann refuses to answer reasonable questions from a reporter for The Dailer Caller.