Tag: commercial

A realistic plan to send a spacecraft to interstellar Comet 3I/Atlas

8:01 am

Scientists have devised a mission profile that could actually get a spacecraft close to Comet 3I/Atlas sometime around 2085.

…the team found that an intercept could be achieved via a Solar Oberth maneuver, but the launch would have to occur in 2035 to achieve optimal alignment between Earth, Jupiter and 3I/ATLAS. The flight duration would be 50 years (though Hibberd notes that this could be reduced marginally). “2035 is optimal because the alignments of the celestial bodies involved (i.e. the Earth, Jupiter, Sun, and 3I/ATLAS) are the most propitious to reach 3I/ATLAS with a minimum Solar Oberth propulsion requirement from the probe, a minimum performance requirement for the launch vehicle, and a minimum flight time to the target,” he said.

The Solar Oberth maneuver has the spacecraft fire its engines at the moment it is zipping past the Sun at its closest and fastest, taking full advantage of that gravitational velocity.

You can read their paper here [pdf] As they note in their conclusion, this entire mission is based on using “a Starship Block 3 upper stage fully-refuelled in Low Earth Orbit.” It assumes that by 2035 Starship will be flying routinely and cheaply, and could be purchased at a reasonable cost for such a mission.

Or maybe donated in the name of science by some billionaire who happens to care about making the human race multi-planetary. Know anyone?

Personally, I wonder it this mission profile could be adapted to reach the first known interstellar object, Oumuamua. 3I/Atlas appears to simply be a comet. Though a visit would be of value it would not Earth-shaking. Oumuamua however was not a comet, but more importantly it was strange in every way. Though astronomers in 2019 declared based on the available data that it was definitely not an alien spaceship, that conclusion remains very uncertain. As I wrote at the time:

…for anyone to assume there is any certainty to this conclusion would be a grave mistake. It is merely the best guess, based on the available but somewhat limited data. The data however does not preclude more exotic explanations. Nothing is certain.

To me this object should get top priority.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

11 comments

Elmer Bernstein – To Kill A Mockingbird Suite

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Performed live 2014 by the Beethoven Academy Orchestra with Sara Andon on the flute.

Some movies are made special because of their score, and I think this applies to the 1962 film, To Kill a Mockingbird. It is a superb work of art, but it rises above many comparable films due to the music that Elmer Bernstein wrote for it. His suite only gives a hint of its effectiveness, in the movie.

1 comment

Rocket Factory Augsburg getting close to launch

9:16 am

Screen capture of test failure
Screen capture from video of test failure in 2024.
Note the flame shooting out sideways.

The German rocket startup Rocket Factory Augsburg appears to finally be getting close to launching its RFA-1 rocket after a static fire test explosion in 2024 seriously delayed its plans.

Speaking to European Spaceflight in early February, Rocket Factory Augsburg CEO Prof. Dr. Indulis Kalnins, who replaced Dr. Stefan Tweraser in April 2025, explained that the rocket’s first stage is in the process of being transported from Augsburg in Germany to the launch site on Unst. The rocket’s upper stage, which has received upgrades to its single Helix engine and the associated control software, is expected to follow in the next few weeks.

On 10 February, the company announced that the new umbilical tower had been raised, standing at 52 metres high. The tower will support and stabilise the rocket and provide propellant, power, and data connections. The company has begun commissioning the repaired and upgraded launch pad. The only element still to be added is the water tanks for the water deluge system. Kalnins, however, stressed that the company is taking its time with all pre-flight testing.

It appears my speculation that the company had not yet received its launch licenses from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) was wrong. Those licenses were issued in January 2025, only five months after the static fire launchpad explosion. For the CAA to respond that quickly is quite surprising. Maybe it decided it shouldn’t kill a third rocket company trying to launch from the UK.

Right now the race to be the first orbital rocket launched from a European spaceport is coming down to Rocket Factory and its German competitor Isar Aerospace. Isar is gearing up to make its second attempt to launch its Spectrum rocket from Norway’s Andoya spaceport in March.

0 comments

Fairing from India’s Bahubali rocket launched in December found in Maldives

9:00 am

A man fishing off an uninhabited island in the Maldives discovered what appears to be pieces from the fairing used by India’s LVM3 rocket, also dubbed Bahubali, when it launched AST SpaceMobile’s sixth Bluebird satellite in December.

A similar discovery was made on December 28, 2025 in Sri Lanka. In both cases it is theorized that the material came from the fairings of the December Bahubali launch.

I am unable to determine the flight path of the Bluebird launch, but the location of this debris suggests it headed strongly south from India’s east coast spaceport. The fairing pieces then drifted south and west to reach the Maldives after two months.

SpaceX routinely recovers its fairing and resuses them, which due to the fairing’s basic shape has turned out to be relatively straightforward. They have the shape of a boat’s hull, and after parachuting softly down can simply float on the surface until they can be picked up. It is absurd no one else does this.

0 comments

SpaceX launches 29 Starlink satellites

8:42 am

SpaceX in the early morning hours today successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its 10th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The 2026 launch race:

19 SpaceX
8 China
2 Rocket Lab
2 Russia
1 ULA
1 Europe (Arianespace)

As it did in both ’24 and ’25, SpaceX in ’26 so far has more launches than the entire rest of the world combined.

0 comments

FAA confirms “no significant impact” to environment for Starship/Superheavy at Boca Chica

9:42 am

The FAA today released [pdf] its final environmental assessment reviewing SpaceX’s request to expand operations of Starship/Superheavy at Boca Chica, confirming that it has determined there will be “no significant impact” to environment.

The 2022 PEA and April 2025 Tiered EA examined the potential for significant environmental impacts from Starship-Super Heavy launch operations at the Boca Chica Launch Site and defined the regulatory setting for impacts associated with Starship-Super Heavy. The areas evaluated for environmental impacts in this Tiered EA include noise and noise‐compatible land use; aviation emissions and air quality; hazardous materials, solid waste, and pollution prevention; and socioeconomics. In each of these areas, the FAA has concluded that no significant impacts would occur as a result of the Proposed Action.

The approval will allow SpaceX to do 25 launches per year (three of which are at night). The approval also appears to lay the groundwork for bringing Superheavy back not only to Boca Chica, but to Florida. It also lays the groundwork for bringing Starship back to Boca Chica after completing an orbital flight, to be caught by the tower chopsticks.

6 comments

Vast wins sixth ISS slot for tourist mission

5:11 pm

Haven-2
Vast’s full Haven-2 station once completed

NASA today announced that it has awarded the space station startup Vast its sixth slot for a manned commercial mission to ISS, scheduled for 2027.

The mission is expected to spend up to 14 days aboard the space station. A specific launch date will depend on overall spacecraft traffic at the orbital outpost and other planning considerations.

…Vast will submit four proposed crew members to NASA and its international partners for review. Once approved and confirmed, they will train with NASA, international partners, and SpaceX for their flight. The company has contracted with SpaceX as launch provider for transportation to and from the space station.

Vast already intends to fly four two-week missions to its single module Haven-1 demo station, scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2027. This new ISS mission will demonstrate to NASA directly that Vast can handle manned missions. In both cases, the company is hoping its actions will convince NASA to award it a full construction contract to build its Haven-2 full-sized station, as shown in the graphic to the right.

Below are my rankings of the five private commercial space stations being developed. At this point the first three (Haven, Axiom, Starlab) are essentially tied, while the fourth (Thunderbird) is only trailing because it came late to the game. The fifth, Orbital Reef, seems practically out of the game.
» Read more

10 comments

New Zealand raises its annual cap of rocket launches from 100 to 1,000

10:28 am

The New Zealand government has now increased the number of launches it will allow from within its territory each year from 100 to 1,000.

The government is raising the total number of launches allowed to 1000, as the cap set at 100 in 2017 comes close to being breached. The US-NZ company Rocket Lab dominates the launch market from its pad at Mahia.

Space Minister Judith Collins said the 100 cap was likely to be hit this year. “This change ensures our space and advanced aviation industries can continue to expand while operating within clear environmental boundaries.” The environmental impact from more debris from space vehicle launches had been newly determined to be low.

The rules would have required a special marine consent for every launch over the 100 cap.

The article at the link is a typical leftist anti-achievement propaganda piece, spending more time airing the complaints by one physics professor than reporting the details of this new ruling. Nonetheless, this decision will likely benefit Rocket Lab’s operations significantly, as it hopes this year to make as many as two launches per month. While that remains below the old 100 launch cap, the new 1,000 launch cap gives it a limit it won’t face for decades, if ever.

It will also likely benefit several spaceports to the west in Australia. Some of their launches would likely need New Zealand clearance, and this new limit will ease their regulatory burden.

2 comments

Four launches today with mostly positive results

10:15 am

This morning saw a string of launches from China, Russia, America, and Europe, with all four appearing to get their payloads into orbit though the American launch, by ULA’s Vulcan rocket, appeared to have a problem with one of its solid-fueled boosters.

First, a Chinese pseudo-company owned entirely by a Chinese government agency successfully placed seven satellites in orbit, its Smart Dragon-3 rocket (also called Jielong-3) lifting off from a platform off the coast of northeast China. Of the satellites, the prime payload was a Pakistani Earth observation satellite.

Though this launch was from a pseudo-company, I think I can safely say that the pause in launches by China’s so-called commercial market continues. Smart Dragon-3 was built by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which while structured as a private company is owned and controlled by several agencies of the Chinese government.

Next, Russia successfully launched a new weather satellite, its Proton rocket launching from Baikonur in Kazakhstan. This was the first Proton launch in three years, a pause partly because Russia is in the process of retiring that rocket. The lower stages crashed in a range of spots in Kazakhstan and across southern Russia, just missing China in two places.

The American company ULA then followed with its first launch in 2026, its Vulcan rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida and carrying two military satellites designed to track other satellite operations in high geosynchronous orbit.

Unexpected debris falling from rocket at about T-1:00
Unexpected debris falling from rocket at about T-1:00

While it appears the launch was able to get the satellites into their correct orbits, the Vulcan rocket had an issue during the launch. According to ULA, one of the rocket’s four solid-fueled boosters had a problem during its flight. More details can be found here, suggesting the booster, built by Northrop Grumman, might have had a been a failure of the booster’s nozzle, similar to the same burn-through that occurred on a booster during Vulcan’s second launch in 2024, and also occurred during a Northrop Grumman static fire test in 2025.

This issue is likely going to delay further Vulcan launches, and will likely make it impossible for ULA to meet its goal of launching 16 to 18 Vulcan missions this year. It will also raise hackles within the Pentagon, which certified Vulcan for military launches in 2025. That certification will likely be questioned, and possibly even pulled.

Finally, Arianespace sent 32 Leo satellites into orbit for Amazon, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from French Guiana. This was the first Ariane-6 launch in its most powerful variant, using four strap-on boosters.

Amazon has now launched 212 Leo satellites. Its FCC license however requires it to have 1,616 in orbit by July. The company has requested a waiver on that requirement, and is likely to get it, since it is now demonstrating that it is serious about launching the constellation.

The 2026 launch race:

16 SpaceX
8 China
2 Rocket Lab
2 Russia
1 ULA
1 Europe (Arianespace)

10 comments
1 … 24 25 26 27 28 … 898