Tag: commercial

Space Force awards SpaceX and ULA new launch contracts worth $2.5 billion

8:37 am

Space Force yesterday awarded both SpaceX and ULA new launch contracts worth $2.5 billion and totaling 21 launches over the next two to three years.

The final batch of assignments were split almost evenly, according to Col. Doug Pentecost, the deputy program executive officer of the Space Force’s Space Systems Command. ULA received 11 missions, valued at $1.3 billion, and SpaceX received 10 missions, valued at $1.23 billion.

Space Systems Command said the missions are scheduled to launch over the next two to three years. ULA, a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin, will use its soon-to-debut Vulcan rocket for the 11 missions, while SpaceX will fly seven missions with its Falcon 9 rocket and three missions with its Falcon Heavy rocket.

For SpaceX this award is no surprise. The ULA contract is more puzzling. Supposedly the Space Force was not going to award any launch contracts for ULA’s new Vulcan rocket until it successfully launched twice and was certified by the military as operational. Yet, it has now awarded ULA this contract for Vulcan launches. Has the military awarded the contract on a contingency basis? What happens if Vulcan has a failure on one of its first two launches?

The Space Force’s present arrangement limits bidding for launches to just these two companies. If Vulcan fails will it open bidding to other companies, or will it transfer launches to SpaceX?

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The Netherlands signs Artemis Accords

8:26 am

Confirming what it announced in early October, the Netherlands yesterday officially signed the Artemis Accords, becoming the thirtieth nations to join.

The full list of signatories to the Artemis Accords is now as follows: Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Canada, Columbia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, France, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, and the United States.

We now have the rough outline of the national alliances that will compete with each other in space. On one hand are the nations above, generally from the west with a larger focus on private enterprise and ownership. On the other hand are the authoritarian nations, led by China and Russia with a few failed communist nations like Venezuela.

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SpaceX successfully launches another 22 Starlink satellites

9:27 am

SpaceX early this morning successfully launched another 22 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage completed its seventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The company has another Starlink launch scheduled for later today, taking off from Cape Canaveral. UPDATE: Aborted at T-30 seconds for a technical issue, and rescheduled for October 30, 2023.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

77 SpaceX
48 China
14 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China 89 to 48 in successful launches, and the entire world combined 89 to 77. SpaceX by itself is now tied with the rest of the world (excluding American companies) 77 to 77.

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Intuitive Machines delays launch of its Nova-C lunar lander two months

10:04 am

South Pole of Moon with landing sites

Intuitive Machines yesterday announced that it has decided to delay the launch of its Nova-C lunar lander from in November launch window to a new window beginning on January 12, 2023.

The company did not elaborate on the reasons for the delay. However, executives warned at a media event Oct. 3 that “pad congestion” at LC-39A could delay their launch. The mission has to launch from that pad, rather than nearby Space Launch Complex 40, because only LC-39A is equipped to fuel the lander with methane and liquid oxygen propellants on the pad shortly before liftoff.

That pad is used for Falcon 9 crew and cargo missions to the International Space Station as well as Falcon Heavy launches. The pad is scheduled to host the Falcon 9 launch of the CRS-29 cargo mission Nov. 5 followed by a Falcon Heavy mission for the Space Force in late November. Converting the pad between Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches can take up to three weeks.

The landing site is indicated by the green dot on the map of the south pole to the right. Note that this landing will be the closest to the south pole yet, though not at the south pole. It will also be the first to land next to a crater that has a permanently shadowed interior, though Nova-C will not be able to enter it because it carries no rover and is only designed to last through the first lunar day.

Based on the present launch schedule, Astrobotic now gets the first chance to successfully land a privately built lunar lander. It is scheduled to launch on December 24, 2023 on a Vulcan rocket. The Japanese company Ispace attempted and failed to land its Hakuto-R1 spacecraft in April.

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Giant airship gets clearance for test flights

10:45 am

A giant rigid-frame balloon airship, dubbed Pathfinder-1 and reminiscent of the airships from the early 20th century, has gotten clearance to begin flight tests at Moffett Field in California.

At 407 ft (124 m) long and 66 ft (20 m) in diameter, it’s considerably longer than the “flying buttocks” of the Airlander 10, although less than half of its width. It might not qualify as the world’s largest aircraft, but it’s still absolutely enormous, approaching twice the length of an Airbus A380.

…Currently housed in a monstrous hangar in Mountain View, California, Pathfinder 1 has already flown indoors earlier this year. According to IEEE Spectrum, the company has now been awarded the special airworthiness certificate required to fly this beast outdoors – at less than 1,500 ft (460 m) of altitude, and within the boundaries of Moffett Field and the neighboring Palo Alto Airport’s airspace.

Because of the lightweight materials being used, Pathfinder-1 will use helium, not hydrogen, to lift it. The hope is that this airship can be used to transport cargo. The project is financed by Google co-founder Sergey Brin.

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UK awards German launch startup Rocket Factory Augsberg $4.3 million for first launch

10:32 am

The United Kingdom has given a $4.3 development grant to the German launch startup Rocket Factory Augsberg (RFA) to pay for launch preparations at the Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands.

The real news from this article however is the continuing delays for anyone to launch from Great Britain. Previously the two Scottish spaceports, one in Shetland and the other in Sutherland, had anticipated the first launches in 2023, from the three companies RFA, Orbex, and ABL. Now it appears that those launches could be delayed into the middle of 2024.

RFA currently expects to launch its three-stage, 30-meter-tall RFA One rocket at some point during the three months to the end of June, recently delayed from the end of this year.

…ABL had planned to conduct its SaxaVord Spaceport launch in 2023, but has yet to announce a date for its next launch attempt anywhere after its inaugural mission from Alaska failed to reach orbit Jan. 10.

ABL is gearing up for its second launch attempt, hopefully before the end of this year, but it will do it from the Kodiak spaceport in Alaska.

One can’t help wondering if these delays are connected the red tape from UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), which delayed issuing a launch licence to Virgin Orbit so long it literally helped bankrupt the company. For example, Orbex applied for its launch license from Sutherland in January 2022, and 22 months later it apparently has still not gotten an approval from the CAA.

This grant from the UK government might be that government’s effort to keep RFA — faced with CAA delays — from switching its launch site out of Great Britain.

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ABL preparing for second launch attempt of its RS1 rocket

10:09 am

ABL's redesigned rocket launch mount
ABL’s redesigned rocket launch mount

Since its first test launch of its RS1 rocket failed in January 2023, ABL has spent the last ten months doing major revisions of the rocket’s launch mount as well as preparing an upgraded new rocket for a second test launch attempt, expected in the coming months.

This information comes from a long update posted by the company’s CEO, Harry O’Hanley on October 25, 2023.

It appears failure occurred because of a fire at the base of the rocket after liftoff, which in turn was caused by the small size of the rocket’s launch mount.

By analyzing video and data, we formulated a leading theory behind the source of the fire. Our hypothesis centered around the Launch Mount, which is the GS0 assembly that raises and lowers the vehicle. It was designed to fit fully assembled inside a shipping container. While this made transport simple, it resulted in the rocket being held close to the ground.

We believe the compact Launch Mount and proximity of RS1 to the ground restricted the flow of engine exhaust gas. This caused plume recirculation and drove pressures and temperatures beneath the rocket to exceed the RS1 base heat shield design capability. The hot combustion gases breached the aft heat shield and initiated the engine compartment fire. We corroborated this theory with a variety of tests and analyses, including multi-species CFD performed both in-house and by an independent partner.

The graphic to the right, rearranged and annotated to post here, shows the new larger mount. Because of the time it has taken to make that launch mount upgrade, the company also decided to fly its next version of RS1 on this second test launch, rather than the backup rocket from the first launch. This upgraded RS1 has 20% more thrust with a detachable engine section that makes access to it much easier.

O’Hanley made no mention of a specific target launch date from the Kodiak spaceport in Alaska, but his post implies the launch is coming very soon.

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The hull of Axiom’s first space station module nears completion

1:44 pm

The hull of Axiom’s first space station module is nearing completion, according to officials of the Italian company Thales Alenia Space that is building it.

“The first module shell is effectively completed,” Jason Aspiotis, Axiom’s director of in-space infrastructure and logistics, said at AIAA’s Ascend conference here on Oct. 23. “A lot of the subsystems that will populate the underlying structure–think about life support systems, avionics, propulsion, [guidance, navigation and control systems], power, communications, all that good stuff–we’re developing in a lab in Houston.” Hab One hatches have also been fabricated, tested and prepared for delivery to Thales Alenia Space to support Hab One pressure testing, the company says.

The first module is to be shipped to Houston by 2024 for final assembly and integration at Axiom Space’s factory at Ellington Airport. The company plans to launch the Hab One module in 2026.

Based on this news report, Axiom’s schedule has not experienced any further delays since it pushed back the launch from 2024 in June.

The article also says, almost as an aside, that ISS is planned for decommission “in 2031”, which is one year later than any previous report I’ve seen. I suspect this is correct, but is information that NASA really didn’t want revealed to the public as yet, as it had enough trouble convincing its international European and Japanese partners to stay on until 2030. Moreover, there remains serious concerns the older Russian modules themselves might fail before then, based on the number of stress fractures found in their hulls, so admitting NASA hopes to keep the station flying till ’31 will appear questionable at best.

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Boeing losses total almost a billion dollars this quarter

1:15 pm

The hits to Boeing keep coming: In addition to the $1.5 billion it has had to write-off because of problems with its Starliner capsule, Boeing is now reporting losses in the third quarter totaling almost a billion dollars, with half those losses coming from overruns on its fixed price contract to provide Air Force One to the U.S. government.

The $482 million loss on the high-profile presidential plane was due to “higher estimated manufacturing costs related to engineering changes, labor instability and the resolution of supplier negotiations,” Boeing Chief Financial Officer Brian West said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call Wednesday.

Boeing has faced numerous problems with the VC-25B program, including shortages of workers and parts, that have delayed delivery of the first of two Air Force One jets until 2027. To date, the company has lost over $2.4 billion on the program, according to a company spokesperson. CEO Dave Calhoun said last year that Boeing should have never agreed to the fixed $3.9 billion price tag.

The second-largest contributor to losses for Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security (BDS) business was a satellite program that cost the company $315 million in the third quarter. The company wouldn’t identify the program, but West said the loss is “tied to customer considerations and higher estimated cost to deliver a highly innovative satellite constellation contract that we signed several years ago.” [emphasis mine]

Let me translate what CEO Calhoun was really saying in the highlighted sentence: “We want a blank check! Boeing is incapable of producing anything based upon a standard fixed price, and wants the federal government to go back to open-ended cost-plus contracts that put no limit to overruns and schedule delays.”

Whether Boeing gets that blank check or not really depends on Boeing. It is very possible our corrupt legislators in Congress — who think money grows on trees — will bring these cost-plus contract back, but I doubt Boeing will win many such contracts in the near future, based on its horrible performance on all levels technically. It needs to completely clean house, with major shake-ups in management and staff, as whoever is working there now is simply doing a terrible job.

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SpaceX gets ESA contract to launch up to four of its Galileo GPS-type satellites

9:41 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) this week announced that it has awarded SpaceX a launch contract to put up to four of its Galileo GPS-type satellites into orbit. Though the deal is signed, approval must still be obtained by ESA’s members and executive commission.

This will be the first time SpaceX will launch any ESA satellites, and the first time in fifteen years that a Galileo satellite will launch outside of Arianespace operations. Previously the Russians had done a number of Galileo launches, using its Soyuz-2 rocket launching out of Arianespace’s French Guiana spaceport, but that partnership ended with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

For the ESA the situation is even worse. It needs SpaceX to launch its satellites because at present it doesn’t have any of its own rockets to do it. The Ariane-5 is retired, and the new Ariane-6 (meant to replace it) is long delayed, and will not have its first test launch until next year, at the earliest. The Vega-C (too small for Galileo anyway) is also grounded due to design defects in the nozzle of its upper stage, while the Vega rocket it replaces has only one more launch before its own retirement.

Much like the Axiom-UK deal posted below, the American commercial space industry is once again making money from others, solely due to the capabilities developed in the past decade due to competition and freedom.

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Axiom signs deal with the United Kingdom to fly all British mission

9:30 am

The space agency of the United Kingdom today announced that it has signed a deal with Axiom to fly an manned mission in space, with four astronauts spending up to two weeks in space (likely in a SpaceX Dragon capsule).

The flight, estimated to cost around £200 million, is being organized in cooperation with the European Space Agency (ESA), though all the astronauts will be British. The announced commander, Tim Peake, spent six months on ISS in 2015, and has come out of retirement to do the flight.

It is also unclear at this moment whether it will fly to ISS, or simply remain in orbit. In fact, few specific details have yet been released.

The bottom line however is that the new American space industry is going to make money from Britain’s desire to be a space power. Seems like a good deal to me.

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No Starship/Superheavy launch likely until January?

9:13 am

No Starship test launch until 2024
SpaceX is ready but the federal government says “No!”

We’re from the government and we’re here to help! In describing the effort of Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to help SpaceX prod the federal bureaucracy into approving a new launch license for the company’s Starship/Superheavy rocket, space writer Mark Whittington included this significant but not previously mentioned tidbit that might help us predict when Fish & Wildlife (FWS) might finally give its okay for a launch:

The FWS has as long as 135 days to complete its review.

Let’s review the situation to understand what this tidbit means. At present it appears the FAA is ready to issue a launch licence, having closed its own investigation into the April Starship/Superheavy test flight on September 8, 2023.

At the time the FAA however was very clear: No launch license until Fish & Wildlife gave its environmental approval as well. Never before had this environmental agency had veto power over launches, but under the Biden administration it now has it.

Though Fish & Wildlife could have begun its own investigation in April, and met the 135-day deadline to give its approval for a launch the same time as the FAA, in September, it now appears that it did not start its clock ticking until after the FAA closed its work. If so, it appears Fish & Wildlife has until early January to complete its investigation.

Since FWS admitted in April, right after the failed test launch of Starship/Superheavy, that it caused no harm to wildlife, there appears no reason for this long delay.

The delay therefore can only be for two reasons, neither good. Either the people at Fish & Wildlife are utterly incompetent, and need eight months to write up the paperwork (even though in April they already knew that there was no reason to delay), or they are vindictive, power-hungry, and wish to exercise an animus against SpaceX in order to hurt the company.

Mostly likely we are seeing a combination of both: The bureaucrats at Fish & Wildlife are incompetent and hate SpaceX, and are using their newly gained power over issuing launch licenses to hurt it.

Either way, if Fish & Wildlife uses its entire 135-day window to issue its launch approval to SpaceX, no launch can occur this year. SpaceX will be stymied, and the development of this new heavy-lift reuseable rocket, possibly the most important new technology in rocketry ever, will be badly crushed. Not only will NASA’s Artemis program be damaged (it wants Starship as its manned lunar lander), SpaceX might face huge financial loses, as it needs Starship to launch and maintain its Starlink communications constellation.

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ULA sets Christmas Eve as launch date for first Vulcan rocket launch

8:35 am

In an interview for CNBC, ULA’s CEO revealed that the company has now scheduled the first orbital launch of its new Vulcan rocket for December 24, 2023, Christmas Eve, with a backup launch window in January.

The rocket will carry Astrobotic’s Peregrine lunar lander, targeting the western edge of the lunar mare dubbed Mare Imbrium. It will also carry human ashes to be buried in space, from the private company Celestis.

Vulcan was also originally supposed to carry Amazon’s first two test Kuiper satellites, but the delays in developing Vulcan forced ULA to use an Atlas-5 rocket instead, that launched on October 6th.

If the launch is successful, the company will try to quickly ramp up its launch pace to 24 times per year, in order to meet the contract for 47 launches it has with Amazon to launch Kuiper satellites, as well as its contract obligations to the Pentagon to launch military satellites.

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Varda signs deal with Australian private spaceport operator to land its capsules

9:13 am

Blocked from landing its American-built space capsules by the American government, the startup Varda has now completed negotiations and signed an agreement with Southern Launch, an Australian private spaceport operator, to land its capsules at the Koonibba Test Range northwest of Adelaide.

Varda’s business plan is to launch unmanned capsules in which pharmeceuticals and other products that can’t be made on Earth are manufactured, then return the capsule to earth where they are sold for a profit. This deal will allow Varda to land its next capsule there in 2024.

Meanwhile, Varda first capsule, presently in orbit after manufacturing pharmeceuticals for HIV, appears to be a total loss because the FAA and the Pentagon refused it permission to land in the U.S., for what appear to be purely bureaucratic reasons.

There was no single specific issue that held up the reentry, he said. “It was ultimately a coordination problem amongst three different groups that had not worked through this operation before.” He added that there were no safety concerns with Varda’s spacecraft or its ability to meet requirements for an FAA license. An additional challenge is that Varda is the first company to seek an FAA reentry license through a new set of regulations called Part 450. Those regulations are intended to streamline the process but, on the launch side, have been criticized by companies for being difficult.

The U.S. government is now the enemy of its citizens, so incompetent that it actually works to block them from achieving their goals.

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Space Perspective unveils restroom for its high altitude tourist balloon

9:14 am

Neptune's restroom
Click for original image.

The Florida company Space Perspective yesterday unveiled the restroom for its high altitude tourist balloon, Neptune, that intends to take passengers on six to eight hour flights to nineteen miles elevation.

The goal was to provide an environment closer to a spa than to a typical aircraft setting, said Dan Window, who oversees all aspects of design at Space Perspective alongside Isabella Trani. “Overall, we embraced softness and optimistic color tones in the Space Spa, which play nicely with the contrasting colors you will see through its two windows,” Window said in the same statement. “We’re also using light washes, for example, to create ambience and allow for customization of the environment as well as discourage reflections in the windows. Soothing soundscapes will be unique to what you experience in the Space Lounge, and we brought in plants as a callback to the experience that Space Perspective’s founders had in Biosphere 2.

Based on the artist’s renderning to the right, the restroom is still a very small space, smaller than the smallest bathroom in most homes.

Space Perspective says it has received deposits for more than 1,600 flight tickets at 125K each, representing $200 million in potential income. It hopes to complete its first test flight next year.

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SpaceX successfully completes two Starlink satellite launches today

8:29 pm

SpaceX today successfully completed two Starlink satellite launches, first putting 21 satellites in orbit from Vandenberg in the early morning hours and then launching another 23 satellites from Cape Canaveral in the evening.

Both first stages successfully landed on their drone ships, respectively in the Pacific and Atlantic. The first completed its sixteenth flight, the second its fourth flight.

The leaders in 2023 launch race:

76 SpaceX
46 China
13 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

American private enterprise now leads China in successfully launches 88 to 46, and the entire world combined 88 to 74. SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world combined (excluding American companies) 76 to 74.

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The reshuffling of Blue Origin’s management continues

10:20 am

With the announcement yesterday that another high level executive was leaving the company — the third in less than a month — Blue Origin does appear to be making major changes in its management as well as its entire organizational structure.

Blue Origin CEO Bob Smith told employees in an email on Friday that Mike Eilola, the company’s senior vice president of operations since 2021, “is leaving the company for personal reasons” on Nov. 3 and will have his unit split into two new organizations.

Eilola’s departure follows plans announced last month by Bezos to replace Smith, who has been Blue Origin’s CEO since 2017, with longtime Amazon executive Dave Limp by the end of the year. And Brent Sherwood, the head of what had been the company’s research and development unit, will depart next month, Reuters has reported.

This is not the only management restructuring. It has also shifted its lunar lander project into its own division, as well as created a new separate division for developing in-space robotic servicing and orbital tug products.

It finally appears that Jeff Bezos is taking action to get his company working again, after more than a half decade of non-achievement since Bob Smith took over in 2017. Hopefully these changes finally will produce results.

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Japan awards Ispace $80 million to develop larger lunar lander

8:49 am

The Japanese government, not its space agency JAXA, today announced it has awarded the commercial company Ispace an $80 million grant to develop a larger lunar lander, following its failed attempt earlier this year to land its first Hakuto-R1 lander on the Moon.

Japan will provide a subsidy of up to 12 billion yen ($80 million) to moon exploration startup ispace (9348.T) as part of a grant programme for innovative ventures, industry minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Friday.

The new lander is targeting a 2027 launch, and according to the company’s own statement [pdf] will replace the Hakuto-R lander being used on its first two lunar missions, as well as the Apex lander the American division of Ispace is now building for NASA. It also appears that the contract is fixed price, and will only be paid out when the company achieves actual milestones of development.

In other words, the Japanese government is doing what NASA is now doing, moving away from a government model, where its space agency JAXA builds and controls everything, to a capitalism model, where it buys what it needs from the private sector. That JAXA did not issue this award demonstrates this transition, in that until now all such space contracts were through that agency solely.

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Musiquizzers – Guess that song: 60’s

6:01 pm

An evening pause: It is amazing how many of these short clips (as well as the full songs) are still so familiar and well known, considering its more than a half century since they were first played on the radio. Speaks well to their originality and uniqueness.

But how many of the songs and performers can you guess?

Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.

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At Senate hearings numerous launch companies complain of regulatory bottleneck

8:18 am

At a hearing in the Senate yesterday officials from SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic all expressed strong concerns about how the regulatory bottleneck at the FAA is damaging the entire launch business.

Gerstenmaier emphasized that the FAA’s commercial space office “needs at least twice the resources that they have today” for licensing rocket launches. While he acknowledged the FAA is “critical to enabling safe space transportation,” Gerstenmaier added that the industry is “at a breaking point.”

“The FAA has neither the resources nor the flexibility to implement its regulatory obligations,” Gerstenmaier said.

…The other four panelists’ testimonies largely echoed SpaceX’s viewpoint on the need to bolster the FAA’s ranks and speed up the process of approving rocket launches. Phil Joyce, Blue Origin senior vice president of New Shepard, said the FAA “is struggling to keep pace” with the industry “and needs more funding to deal with the increase in launches.”

Likewise, industry expert Caryn Schenewerk, a former leader at SpaceX and Relativity Space, said that the FAA’s recent changes have yet to “streamline licensing reviews” and instead have “proven more cumbersome and costly.”

Wayne Monteith — a retired Air Force brigadier general who also led the FAA’s space office — said that Congress should consider consolidating space regulations. “I believe a more efficient one stop shop approach to authorizing and licensing space activities is necessary,” Monteith said.

As always, the focus is on giving the government agency “more resources”. No one ever suggests that maybe its inability to meet the demand is because of mission creep, in which the government continually grabs more regulatory power than it is supposed to have, which then requires it to have additional resources, which then allows it to grab even more power, which then requires more resources, and on and on the merry-go-round goes.

To really solve this problem we need to trim the regulatory framework. The FAA’s responsibilities must be cut, not enhanced. It must be told it “will issue” launch licenses, rather than take the position it “might issue” them. It also must be told to cut back on the checklists it is demanding from companies. All that should concern it is scheduling and arranging air traffic and the launch range to prevent conflicts. Beyond that any regulation is simply overreach, and is something that was never under its control in the past.

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SpaceX to push for more than 140 launches in 2024

8:04 am

At a Senate hearing yesterday, a SpaceX official revealed the company is aiming to achieve 144 launches in 2024, an almost 50% increase from the record-setting pace it is maintaining this year.

“This year, we’re going to attempt to fly 100 flights,” Bill Gerstenmaier, the vice president of build and flight reliability at SpaceX, said on Wednesday (Oct. 18) during a hearing of the U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Space and Science. “As we look to next year, we want to increase that flight rate to about 12 flights per month, or 144 flights,” he added during the hearing.

Getting to 12 launches per month will be a challenge, but not an unreasonable one. So far this year the company has routinely launched more than six times per month, but it has been pushing that rate since the summer, with it many times trying to do launches almost daily for a stretch. Often its biggest problem isn’t the company or rocket, but the weather and scheduling at Cape Canaveral, as there are others that wish to launch there.

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