Tag: engineering

NASA/Axiom announce another four-day launch delay for Axiom’s fourth manned mission

8:55 am

NASA and Axiom today announced that they have rescheduled the launch of Axiom’s fourth manned mission to ISS, dubbed Ax-4, to June 22, 2025 in order to give Russian and American engineers more time to assess the leak repairs in the station’s Russian Zvezda module.

The press announcement provided little information, simply stating that:

The change in a targeted launch date provides NASA time to continue evaluating space station operations after recent repair work in the aft (back) most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.

It would be nice if the agency would release some actual data. Earlier reports had suggested that the repairs had completely sealed the leaks and that the station was no longer losing air. The vagueness of today’s report suggests that the repairs might not have been as successful as hoped. It could also be engineers simply want more data for a longer period to prove the repairs have worked.

The lack of detailed information causes unnecessary speculation.

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Mars will be mystery until we can walk its surface

1:43 pm

A Martian mystery
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image illustrates starkly the limitations of orbital imagery. The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on March 30, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows flow features inside a depression that strongly resemble glacial features, with the downhill grade roughly heading south.

Such features are seen in many places on Mars, almost always in the 30 to 60 degree mid-latitude bands in both the northern and southern hemispheres (see here, here, and here for just three examples. For many more simply search this website using “glacier” or “glacial feature” as search terms).

The problem is that this location is not within that 30 to 60 degree latitude band. In fact, at this location no near surface ice should exist at all.
» Read more

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Honda’s grasshopper rocket successfully completes vertical take-off and landing

10:48 am

Honda today successfully completed the first test of its own grasshopper prototype rocket, with the rocket reaching a height of 890 feet before landing vertically 56 seconds after launch.

I have embedded the video of the flight below.

Honda had announced this project back in 2021, but since then had published no updates of note. This flight indicates that project is real and is on going.

In 2021 the company said it was targeting the first orbital flights by 2030. Today’s update says it will be doing suborbital flights in 2029, which suggests the orbital flights will not occur in 2030.
» Read more

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Rocket Lab gets a quick launch contract from unnamed customer

8:50 am

Rocket Lab today announced it has been awarded a launch contract from an unnamed “confidential commercial customer” calling for two launches before the end of this year, with the first to occur only four days from today.

Launching from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand, the first dedicated mission on Electron – named “Symphony In The Stars” – will take place no earlier than June 20, 2025 to deploy a single spacecraft to a 650km circular Earth orbit. A second dedicated launch on Electron to meet those same mission requirements is scheduled for launch before the end of 2025.

That the customer name is classified suggests these are both military launches, and are designed to demonstrate Rocket Lab’s ability to launch something fast under short notice. The new contract also increases the chances that Rocket Lab will manage two dozen launches in 2025, a pace of twice a month.

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SpaceX launches 26 more Starlink satellites

8:44 am

SpaceX last night successfully placed 26 more Starlink satellites in orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage completed its third flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

A comparison between this launch of SpaceX’s Starlink with Amazon’s scrubbed ULA launch of 27 Kuiper satellites yesterday is worth noting. This launch of 26 Starlink satellites was utterly routine, and just one of four in just the past week, all of which put 98 satellites into orbit. Thousands of such satellites have been launched since the first launch in 2018.

Amazon’s attempt to launch 27 Kuiper satellites was scrubbed, and would have only been the second launch total, separated by about six weeks. The constellation only has 27 satellites in orbit, and its launches are anything but routine, despite signing launch contracts with four different rocket companies. And yet, Amazon proposed Kuiper at almost the same time SpaceX proposed Starlink, in the mid-2010s.

I will let my readers draw their own conclusions from this comparison.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

75 SpaceX
34 China
8 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 75 to 55.

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Spinlaunch signs deal to build its spin launch facility on island in Alaska

12:30 pm

Spinlaunch prototype launcher

Spinlaunch has now confirmed that it has signed a deal to build its spin launch facility on Adak island in the far western extent of the Alaskan island chain.

The facility will be a scaled up version of its spin launch test facility in New Mexico, shown to the right, that was used for tests back in 2022, hurling payloads 35,000 feet into the sky up by spinning them up.

Since then the company changed its leadership and shifted focus to building a satellite constellation that will at least initially will be launched by conventional rockets. This new agreement, actually signed in October 2024 but kept secret until now, suggests that it has not yet abandoned its spin launch technology.
» Read more

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ULA scrubs 2nd Kuiper constellation launch due to technical issue

10:24 am

ULA today scrubbed its second Atlas-5 launch to place 27 more of Amazon’s Kuiper constellation satellites into orbit due to “an engineering observation of an elevated purge temperature within the booster engine.”

At the moment no new launch date has been scheduled.

So far Amazon has only placed 27 operational Kuiper satellites into orbit, on a single Atlas-5 launch in April. According to its FCC license, it must have 1,600 satellites in orbit by July 2026. Though it has contracts to launch these satellites 46 times on ULA rockets (8 on Atlas-5 and 36 on Vulcan), 27 times on Blue Origin’s New Glenn, 18 times on ArianeGroup’s Ariane-6, and 3 times on SpaceX’s Falcon-9, except for SpaceX all these companies have had problems getting off the ground.

Whether Amazon can meet the FAA licence requirement by next year is becoming increasingly questionable.

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China launches science satellite to study Earth’s electromagnetic fields

9:34 am

China today successfully launched a science satellite built in partnership with Italy and designed to study the interaction of the Earth’s atmosphere with its electromagnetic fields, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China. As for the satellite:

With a designed lifespan of six years, the satellite is equipped with nine payloads, including an electric field detector co-developed by China and Italy, as well as a high-energy particle detector developed by Italy. It will carry out quasi-real-time monitoring of global electromagnetic fields, electromagnetic waves, the ionosphere and the neutral atmosphere, detecting electromagnetic anomalies caused by geological and human activities, as well as monitoring thunderstorm and lightning activity, according to CNSA.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

74 SpaceX
34 China
8 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 74 to 55.

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Axiom manned flight to ISS rescheduled; NASA attempts to clarify ISS leak situation

9:26 am

In a NASA update today, it announced a new launch date of June 19, 2025 for Axiom’s fourth manned flight to ISS while also attempting to clarify ISS leak situation that caused this last and more extended delay.

On June 12, NASA and Axiom Space delayed the mission as the agency continued to work with Roscosmos to understand the most recent repair efforts to seal small leaks. The leaks, located in the aft (back) most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module, have been monitored by flight controllers for the past few years.

Following the most-recent repair, pressure in the transfer tunnel has been stable. Previously, pressure in this area would have dropped. This could indicate the small leaks have been sealed. Teams are also considering the stable pressure could be the result of a small amount of air flowing into the transfer tunnel across the hatch seal from the main part of space station. By changing pressure in the transfer tunnel and monitoring over time, teams are evaluating the condition of the transfer tunnel and the hatch seal between the space station and the back of Zvezda.

It appears, though NASA doesn’t say so directly, that the Russians did not wish to change the situation at ISS with another docking — even if it was a docking on the American half of the station — while it was evaluating these leak repairs. It now appears they have gotten enough data to allow NASA to set a new launch date later this week.

If the repairs have managed to stop the leaks this is excellent news. At the same time, it doesn’t reduce the risks of a catastrophic failure of Zvezda, since the existence of these numerous stress fractures in its hull suggest a chronic long term failure that can only worsen with time.

The sudden delay of Axiom’s AX-4 last week also indicates poor coordination between NASA and Roscosmos. It was as if NASA had no idea the repair work was occurring, either because it wasn’t paying attention to what the Russians were doing or because the Russians had kept this work secret until it was completed. In either case, this is not how such a partnership should operate.

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The mad mountains of Mars

10:34 am

The mad mountains of Mars
Click for original image.

Overview map
Click for interactive map

Cool image time! The picture above, cropped to post here, was taken on June 10, 2025 by the high resolution camera on the Mars rover Curiosity, and shows some of the stranger terrain found higher up the flanks of Mount Sharp in Gale Crater.

The blue dot on the overview map to the right marks Curiosity’s present position, where it is doing another drilling campaign into the first boxwork geology it has encountered. The white line marks its past travels, while the green dotted line its planned route.

The yellow lines indicate the area seen in the picture above. The wild mountain peaks on the horizon are part of the sulfate-bearing unit that appears very bright in the overview map. The material that makes up this terrain appears to be very easily eroded, based on its features as seen from orbit, as well as Curiosity’s distant view. Whether that erosion was wind, water, or ice, remains undetermined, and is the main question Curiosity will attempt to answer once it gets there, likely in a year or so.

Regardless, the landscape appears almost like it soft sand being washed away.

Where the rover will go next the science team has not yet decided. It will definitely continue uphill, but they do not yet know the route they will take through that sulfate-bearing unit.

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SpaceX launches 23 more Starlink satellites

9:16 am

SpaceX this morning successfully placed 23 Starlink satellites into orbit (including 13 with phone-to-satellite capabilities), its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 21st flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlanta.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

74 SpaceX
33 China
8 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 74 to 54.

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French startup The Exploration Company launches its own recovery ship

9:10 am

The French startup, The Exploration Company, has now launched its own ship designed to recover its next prototype test cargo capsule, set to launch on a Falcon 9 on June 21, 2025.

In an 11 June update, The Exploration Company announced that the recovery vessel tasked with retrieving the Mission Possible capsule after splashdown had departed the previous day from a harbour in Alaska. The vessel, named Makushin Bay, is a 40-metre salvage and rescue ship owned and operated by US-based maritime logistics company Resolve Marine. Two members of The Exploration Company’s team will accompany the vessel on its mission. Over the next week, it will make its way to the expected splashdown zone in the central Pacific Ocean. According to The Exploration Company, current weather conditions appear favourable for both splashdown and recovery operations.

The company aims to provide cargo to the commercial space stations under development using its proposed Nyx capsule. As part of its own development program it has flown a smaller prototype already on the first launch of Europe’s Ariane-6 rocket, but was unable to test its re-entry capability because of a failure in that rocket’s upper stage. This second larger prototype will try again, and this time has a better shot at completing its test because it if flying on SpaceX’s very reliable Falcon 9. Thus, the launch of this recovery vessel.

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Voyager Technologies raises nearly $400 million in first public stock offering

9:43 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The space station startup Voyager Technologies has now raised $383 million during its first public stock offering this week, with the possibility of more investment capital to come.

The six-year-old provider of mission-critical space and defense technology solutions sold 12.35 million shares at $31 each, pricing above the $26–$29 range it marketed last week. The Denver-based company had initially planned to offer 11 million shares.

Underwriters also have a 30-day option to purchase up to 1.85 million additional shares of the company’s Class A common stock, up from 1.65 million, trading under the ticker symbol VOYG.

Of the four private commercial space stations under development, Voyager is the only one to have so far built nothing. Its station, dubbed Starlab, is conceived as a single large module launched on SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy rocket. Though the company has obtained a $217.5 million development grant from NASA, and is partnering with Airbus, Northrop Grumman, and the European Space Agency, it has focused so far all of its work on design.

We must assume the company intends to use this additional public capital to begin some construction. It likely needs to if it is to have any chance of winning NASA’s major contract for building the station itself, since all of its other competitors are doing so. My present rankings for these four projects:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth to launch momentarily, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA, but it has built nothing. The company however has now raised $383 million in a public stock offering, which in addition to the $217.5 million provided by NASA gives it the capital to begin some construction.
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Europe’s Solar Orbiter takes first images of the Sun’s south pole

9:27 am

The south pole of the Sun
Click for original image.

Because its orbit has now dropped 17 degrees below the ecliptic plane of the solar system, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Solar Orbiter probe has been able to snap the first images of the Sun’s south pole, as shown by the two pictures to the right.

The [two images show] the Sun’s south pole as recorded on 16–17 March 2025, when Solar Orbiter was viewing the Sun from an angle of 15° below the solar equator. This was the mission’s first high-angle observation campaign, a few days before reaching its current maximum viewing angle of 17°.

The instruments each observe the Sun in a different way. PHI images the Sun in visible light (left) and maps the Sun’s surface magnetic field (right).

The magnetic field data on the right has revealed that at present the field at the pole is “a mess,” because the Sun is presently at solar maximum.

While a normal magnet has a clear north and south pole, the PHI instrument’s magnetic field measurements show that both north and south polarity magnetic fields are present at the Sun’s south pole. This happens only for a short time during each solar cycle, at solar maximum, when the Sun’s magnetic field flips and is at its most active. After the field flip, a single polarity should slowly build up and take over at the Sun’s poles. In 5–6 years from now, the Sun will reach its next solar minimum, during which its magnetic field is at its most orderly and the Sun displays its lowest levels of activity.

Solar Orbiter is now well positioned to observe the expected changes in the Sun’s magnetic field as sunspot activity ramps down to solar minimum.

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Axiom manned mission delayed further because of new Zvezda leaks on ISS

8:58 am

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS.

According to a press update today by NASA, the launch of the commercial Ax-4 manned mission to ISS has been further delayed due to work by the Russians attempting to seal new leaks in the station’s Zvezda module.

NASA and Axiom Space are postponing the launch of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station. As part of an ongoing investigation, NASA is working with Roscosmos to understand a new pressure signature, after the recent post-repair effort in the aft most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.

Cosmonauts aboard the space station recently performed inspections of the pressurized module’s interior surfaces, sealed some additional areas of interest, and measured the current leak rate. Following this effort, the segment now is holding pressure.

In other words, the Russians had recently detected an increase in leakage in the module, identified several more cracks inside Zvezda, and have been working to seal them.

The graphic above comes from a 2024 NASA inspector general report, which at that time noted a significant increase in the leak rate in 2024 (see the data in the lower right). Since then it has been NASA policy to close the hatch that connects the American and Russian sections of the station whenever anything docks with Zvezda, due to risk that the docking could cause the module to fail entirely.

Zvezda is one of the oldest modules on ISS, built in the late 1980s and launched in 2000. It is believed the leaks are due to stress fractures in its hull due to the many dockings and undockings that have occurred at its aft docking port.

If the NASA press release can be believed, the situation is under control and the repairs have been successful. If so, expect the Axiom mission to be rescheduled shortly.

If not, we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISS, five years earlier than planned by bureaucrats in Washington and Moscow.

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Chinese robotic servicing satellite now approaching another Chinese servicing satellite

9:39 am

It now appears that one Chinese robotic servicing satellite, Shijian-25, is now approaching another Chinese servicing satellite, Shijian-21, and it is expected that the two will eventually dock in order to test refueling technology.

Shijian-25 was launched in January to test on-orbit refueling and mission extension technologies, while Shijian-21 was launched in October 2021.

Shijian-21 has already executed its primary mission, docking with the defunct Beidou-2 G2 navigation satellite and towing it into a graveyard orbit above GEO. It had been passively drifting westward in GEO for much of the last year, according to COMSPOC, suggesting it may have run out of fuel, but it recently initiated maneuvers taking it towards Shijian-25.

Shijian-21 has since parked at 127.5 degrees East. Now, Shijian-25 is drifting eastwards towards Shijian-21. The two satellites are in a phased orbit, meaning their key orbital elements—such as semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination, right ascension of the ascending node and argument of perigee—are nearly identical, but remain separated by a distance along the same path. This minimizes fuel required for a future rendezvous. The pair are expected to meet June 11 at current rate of approach, though Shijian-25 will likely slow down as it closes in.

In other words, China used the older satellite to test docking and tug operations, and now plans to use the new satellite to refuel it for further operations.

Nor are these the only satellites that are maneuvering into the area. Two American military surveillance satellites have moved in, are flying in parallel, and are likely there to observe the Chinese operations.

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Two spaceports in Alaska sign partnership agreement

9:28 am

Alaska spaceports

The Alaska Aerospace Corporation, which runs the Kodiak spaceport in Alaska, has now signed a five year partnership agreement with University of Alaska’s Geophysical Institute in Fairbanks, which runs the Poker Flat suborbital spaceport, to upgrade the latter for commercial orbital launches.

Though the terms of that agreement are highly technical, Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s draft budget for the corporation indicates that the university plans to seek a FAA spaceport license for the university’s Poker Flat Research Range, which has been flying sounding rockets — smaller rockets used for research — into the upper atmosphere since March 1969, including some earlier this spring.

An FAA license could allow Poker Flat to launch larger rockets, and for commercial purposes, not just scientific ones. Making Poker Flat a “licensed vertical orbital spaceport” could take up to two years, the budget documents state.

The map to the right shows the location of each spaceport. You can read the text of the agreement here [pdf].

Kodiak has been used recently by several orbital rocket startups, most often by Astra. Poker Flat in turn has only done suborbital launches (mostly for universities), and its interior location suggests it would have a very limited capability to do orbital launches. The lower stages of any orbital rocket would crash either in Alaska or Canada, something that neither the U.S. or Canada has previously allowed.

The deal however allows both spaceports to coordinate their effort, which might bring more business to both, for different purposes.

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Europe approves SES purchase of Intelsat

9:00 am

The European Commission has now approved the purchase of the long established satellite communications company Intelsat by the long established Luxembourg satellite communications company SES for about $4 billion.

This decision follows an approval by the government of the United Kingdom. It now appears the only remaining regulatory hurdle is approvals by the FCC and the Department of Justice in the U.S.

This buy-out follows similar mergers by other old established satellite companies, such as the merger of Viasat with Imarsat and OneWeb with Eutelsat. All are occurring because these older companies, which mostly launched large geosynchronous satellites, have been under heavy competitive pressure from the low orbit constellations like Starlink and OneWeb.

Whether these older companies can compete following these mergers however remains uncertain. To succeed they need to have a product customers want, and at the moment it isn’t clear they have one.

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Axiom’s fourth commercial manned mission scrubbed due to leak

8:04 pm

Axiom and SpaceX have scrubbed the launch tomorrow of Axiom’s fourth commercial manned mission to ISS due to an oxygen leak detected during the standard prelaunch static fire test.

NASA, Axiom Space, and SpaceX are standing down from the launch opportunity on Wednesday, June 11, of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station to allow additional time for SpaceX teams to repair a liquid oxygen leak identified during post-static fire Falcon 9 rocket inspections. A new launch date for the fourth private astronaut mission will be provided once repair work is complete, pending range availability.

There a number of launches already scheduled for Florida in the next few days, so it could be that the launch of Ax-4 could be delayed by more than a few days.

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Mexican officials demand investigation into Starship/Superheavy debris on its beaches

11:23 am

Mexican officials of the border state adjacent to Texas are now demanding an investigation into Starship/Superheavy debris that has been found recent on its coast, claiming SpaceX is “polluting Mexican beaches.”

Karina Lizeth Saldivar, the head of the Tamaulipas Secretariat for Urban Development and Environment, recently announced that they would be requesting that federal authorities in Mexico investigate the damages and potential damages that rocket fragments could cause.

According to Saldivar, the rocket pieces could pose a potential danger to locals and claimed that her agency would request a formal investigation by Mexican federal environmental agencies. It remains unclear if Mexico’s government could do anything about the issue.

Saldivar is a typical government apparachik. Rather than try to develop the beach area in Mexico that is close to Boca Chica and thus provides a great tourist spot for viewing launches, she instead can only whine and demand the government shut things down.

Meanwhile, the article notes that ordinary Mexicans aren’t complaining. Instead, they have been collecting the rocket pieces enthusiastically, with some making money by selling them as collector’s iten on social media.

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Trump eliminates restrictions against supersonic flights over the U.S.

9:50 am

In an executive order released on June 6, 2024, President Trump eliminated the half-century-old regulations that forbid supersonic airplanes to fly over the land mass of the United States.

The Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) shall take the necessary steps, including through rulemaking, to repeal the prohibition on overland supersonic flight in 14 CFR 91.817 within 180 days of the date of this order and establish an interim noise-based certification standard, making any modifications to 14 CFR 91.818 as necessary, as consistent with applicable law. The Administrator of the FAA shall also take immediate steps to repeal 14 CFR 91.819 and 91.821, which will remove additional regulatory barriers that hinder the advancement of supersonic aviation technology in the United States.

This order makes sense for several reasons. First, the restrictions were always absurd. The sonic boom concern was always over-rated. Second, the concern increasingly doesn’t exist due to improvements in technology. In a flight test in January, the commercial supersonic airplane startup Boom Aerospace confirmed that its test plane broke the sound barrier three times and each time with “no audible sonic boom.”

Though Boom isn’t the only supersonic startup, it is far ahead of the others. It already has orders from United and Japan airlines for its Overture 80-passenger supersonic jet. This new Trump order will certainly help it attract investment capital, as well as more airlines willing to buy its planes.

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Blue Origin again delays 2nd launch of New Glenn

9:37 am

According to a statement from David Limp, the CEO of Blue Origin, on June 9, 2025, the company has once again delayed the second launch of its new New Glenn rocket, pushing back from May to August.

New Glenn’s second mission will take place NET August 15th. Following in the footsteps of our first booster, we’ve chosen the name “Never Tell Me The Odds” for Tail 2. One of our key mission objectives will be to land and recover the booster.

The rocket’s first launch had occurred in January, and successfully placed its test payload in orbit as intended, though it was unable to land the first stage on its barge in the Atlantic. Blue Origin later said it was targeting May for the second launch, carrying NASA’s two Escapade smallsat Mars orbiters. With this new delay it is unclear what the payload would be.

According to this report, anonymous sources claim an August launch is unlikely and will likely slip to September. The company has a large backlog of launch contracts, including 27 for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation as well as a number for the military. The hope had been that it could ramp up its launch cadence in 2025 to meet those contracts.

Instead, Amazon has begun shifting some of its launch work to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Its FCC license requires it to get 1,600 satellites in orbit by July 2026, and at present it only has sixteen in space. It can no longer wait for Blue Origin to dilly-dally along.

Considering the actual success of the first launch, it seems very puzzling for there to be a nine-month delay until the second launch, even with the failure to land the first stage. Was there some technical problems with the rocket that have not been revealed? It seems foolish to delay further launches in order to fix the landing of the first stage, since that has no impact on getting the customer’s payload into orbit. Wouldn’t it be better to fly again, test the landing again during flight, than sit on the ground looking at computer simulations?

It is also possible the company is still having production problems producing enough BE-4 engines for both ULA’s Vulcan rocket and its own New Glenn. Vulcan uses two per launch, and according to ULA Blue Origin has delivered enough to begin launching Vulcan as many as fifteen times before the end of this year. New Glenn uses seven BE-4s on its first stage. Could it be that Blue Origin wasn’t able to produce enough of these engines for this year’s New Glenn launches?

All this is speculation. What we do know for certain is that both of these companies continue to disappoint. The result is that for larger payloads the United States remains reliant entirely on SpaceX, a situation that is not healthy for the commercial and government satellite industry.

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Scientists increase the odds asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon in 2032

9:10 am

Asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032
Click for original image.

Using additional data obtained by the Webb Space Telescope, scientists have now refined the orbit of potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 and confirmed that while it will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032, the odds of it impacting the Moon have increased.

With the additional data, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California further refined the asteroid’s orbit. The Webb data improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%. As a result, the asteroid’s probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit.

The yellow line in the image to the right shows the present range of positions the asteroid could be in as it passes the Moon on that date. It is expected this range will be narrowed further when the asteroid flies past the Earth harmlessly in 2028.

If the asteroid should hit the Moon, the impact will provide scientists a great opportunity to learn more about asteroids and the Moon. If it should miss, it will then be essential to recalculate its orbit to see what will happen on later near approaches, whether the fly-by increased or decreased the chances of a later Earth impact.

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SpaceX launches 23 more Starlink satellites

8:54 am

SpaceX this morning successfully launched another 23 Starlink satellites (including 13 with phone-to-satellite capabilities), its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its twelfth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

72 SpaceX
33 China
7 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 72 to 53.

SpaceX’s launch of Axiom’s AX-4 manned commercial mission to ISS, carrying government astronauts from India, Poland, and Hungary, has been delayed one more day to 8 am (Eastern) tomorrow due to weather issues.

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The dusky mountains of Mars

10:10 am

The dusky mountains of Mars
Click for high resolution. For the original images, go here, here, and here.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Cool image time! The panorama above, created from three images taken on June 7, 2025 (here, here, and here) by the high resolution camera on top of the Mars rover Curiosity, looks south and uphill into the Gediz Vallis canyon that the rover had been traveling previously.

The overview map to the right provides context. The blue dot Curiosity’s present position, where it is about to begin a drilling campaign into the first boxwork structures the rover has reached. The white dotted line marks its past travels, while the green dotted line its planned future route. The red dotted line marks a planned route that has been abandoned.

The yellow lines indicate approximately the area covered by the panorama. Because this used the rover’s high resolution camera, the view gives us a detailed look at the mountains on the distant horizon. Though we are looking uphill, the peaks in the distance are merely higher ridges and hills on the flanks of Mount Sharp. The mountain’s peak is out of view, about 25 miles away and about 15,000 feet higher up.

Note the dusty and what appears to be a softened nature of the terrain on these higher peaks. Since entering the foothills of Mount Sharp several years ago, the surface has been extremely rocky and rough, every inch covered in boulders of all sizes. This distant view suggests the ground might become easier to traverse at those higher altitudes. It also appears there will be a lot more dust, coating everything.

The lighting I think is close to natural. Because Mars is farther from the Sun, it doesn’t get as much light. Even during mid-day the light to our Earth-borne eyes would more resemble dusk on Earth.

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Axiom charges $70 million per ticket to fly to ISS

9:08 am

Axiom's new module assembly sequence
Axiom’s assembly sequence for its planned station, initially attached to ISS but subsequently detached

According to this article today about Axiom’s tourist flights to ISS, the company now charges $70 million per ticket, which means that for the AX-4 flight scheduled for launch tomorrow, the revenues from India, Poland, and Hungary total about $210 million.

That money of course doesn’t all end up in Axiom’s pockets. It has to pay SpaceX for the launch and use of the Dragon capsule. It also has to pay NASA some recently imposed high fees to use its astronaut training facilities as well as lease time on ISS.

All told, I suspect Axiom’s profits for these flights is relatively small. The company however has other reasons to fly these missions. It is attempting to win NASA’s big space station construction contract, and these flights to ISS demonstrate the company’s ability to manage such operations while working with NASA. Of the other three space station projects competing for that contract, only Vast is planning to do the same.

This effort by these two companies is part of the reason I rank them first and second for winning that contract.

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for tomorrow, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA, but it has built nothing. This might change once it obtains several hundred million dollars from its initial public offering of stock.
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