Tag: politics

First Soyuz-5 rocket arrives at Baikonur

9:50 am

According to Russia’s state-run press, the first Soyuz-5 rocket has arrived at the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan, with a targeted maiden launch scheduled for December.

Soyuz-5 is designed to replace Russia’s soon-to-be retired Proton rocket, as well as the Ukrainian Zenit rocket that is no longer available because Russia invaded the Ukraine. It was first proposed in 2016, with its development proceeding in fits and starts since then. Part of the problems has been Kazakhstan, which demanded (and apparently received) a larger cut from Russia before it would allow Soyuz-5 to launch at the planned launchpad at Baikonur.

A larger factor in the delays has been a shortage of cash in Russia itself, as well the generally slow culture of its aging aerospace industry. However, in the case of Soyuz-5, it appears Russia managed to speed things up, as previous reports in 2024 suggested this first launch would be delayed until 2026.

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India tests Gaganyaan parachutes again

9:15 am

Artist rendering of India's Gaganyaan capsule
Artist rendering of India’s Gaganyaan capsule

India’s space agency ISRO on November 3, 2025 successfully completed another drop test of the parachutes it will use on its Gaganyaan manned orbital capsule, this time testing the chutes in extreme conditions.

Explaining the November 3 test, the Isro statement said the GCM parachute system comprises 10 parachutes of four types. “The descent sequence begins with two apex cover separation parachutes that remove the protective cover of the parachute compartment, followed by two drogue parachutes that stabilize and decelerate the module. Upon release of the drogues, three pilot parachutes are deployed to extract three main parachutes, which further slow down the Crew Module to ensure a safe touchdown,” said Isro. “The system is designed with redundancy—two of the three main parachutes are sufficient to achieve a safe landing.”

Using a pyro device, the main parachutes open partially, a process known as reefing, and then open fully after a predetermined period of time, referred to as disreefing. This step-by-step process is known as reefed inflation. An important aspect of the test was the successful validation of the main parachutes under possible extreme scenarios of delay in the disreefing between the two main parachutes.

The August drop tests were from a helicopter at about 3 kilometers. The November drop tests took place from an airplane at about 2.5 kilometers.

The agency has indicated the first unmanned orbital test flight of Gaganyaan has been delayed from this year to early next, possibly as early as January. It plans to do at least three unmanned flights in 2026 before putting humans on board in early 2027.

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Kazakhstan expanding its access to multiple internet satellite constellations

9:40 am

It appears the Kazakhstan government is making multiple internet satellite constellations available to its citizens in an effort to increase competition and lower costs.

Kazakhstan first engaged with Starlink in 2023, following government frustration over the slow pace of domestic telecom expansion. The project initially connected 2,000 rural schools, and by mid-2024 nearly 1,800 had access to satellite internet.

Authorities briefly considered banning satellite internet services operated from abroad late last year, citing national security concerns, but withdrew the proposal after a public backlash.

Meanwhile, competition in the country’s nascent satellite internet market is heating up. In September 2024, Kazakhstan signed an agreement with Amazon to bring its Project Kuiper satellite network to the country, setting up a future rival to Starlink. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said the move would help improve affordability and service quality. Chinese firm Spacesail Kazakhstan, a subsidiary of Spacesail International, has also registered at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) with $17mn in capital, positioning itself as another potential player in the mega-constellation internet sector.

When Kazakhstan opened Starlink to all its citizens in June 2025, I noted how this deal indicated the country’s move away from Russia. Its willingness now to add Kuiper and Spacesail deals accelerates that move, in numerous ways. It not only wants its citizens to have capabilities that Russia cannot control, it wants to encourage competition to lower costs for those citizens. What a concept!

Like the Ukraine, Kazakhstan is working hard to exceed Russia in technology, in order to make it much harder for its big and very power-hungry neighbor to dominate or even invade it.

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China’s Zhuque-3 reusable rocket now ready for its first launch

9:26 am

According to a report in China’s state-run press today, the Zhuque-3 (ZQ-3] rocket, built by the pseudo-company Landspace, is now cleared for its first launch, though no launch date has yet been announced.

If everything goes according to schedule, the first ZQ 3 will take to the sky in the near future at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwestern China’s Gobi Desert and will attempt to recover its first-stage booster, according to the Beijing-headquartered enterprise.

The rocket is now undergoing technical testing at the Jiuquan spaceport, which has a dedicated launch service tower for the ZQ 3 series.

Though the rocket is methane-fueled, its overall design is a copy of work already done by SpaceX, with a stainless steel first stage with nine engines designed to land vertically after launch and then reused. It is also appears in the lead among about a dozen Chinese pseudo-companies attempting to build reusable rockets.

The Chinese government has recently been pressuring its pseudo-companies to accelerate development. Right now, only three have done any static fire tests, and only one, Landspace, appears ready to launch. There have even been rumors that China might reorganize these fake companies into a government-run operation.

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites

8:47 pm

Note: My original post mistated the time of launch. Below is a corrected text:

SpaceX tonight at 10:21 pm (Eastern) successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its third flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

I specify the launch time because it occurred just outside the FAA’s so-called curfew banning all launches from 6 am to 10 pm local time, due to the government shutdown and a shortage of air traffic controllers to coordinate aviation and rocket launches. Though the Senate today voted to end the shutdown, that shutdown has not yet ended, and won’t until the House passes the Senate budget version and Trump signs it.

Thus, it appears Blue Origin has negotiated an exemption for its now planned launch of New Glenn on November 12, 2025 in the afternoon.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

147 SpaceX (a new record)
70 China
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 147 to 115.

Note that I had made an error in entering my numbers earlier this week in regards to China, and have now corrected the mistake, thus revising the numbers in the last few launch reports.

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Isaacman shows up as surprise speaker at Turning Point USA event in Alabama

9:57 am

In what could very well explain why Donald Trump changed his mind about Jared Isaacman’s nomination for NASA administration, Isaacman showed up unexpectedly at a Turning Point USA event at Auburn University in Alabama this past week, where he described how the murder of Charlie Kirk had profoundly changed his outlook on life.

[O]n a very personal note, I didn’t grow up very religious at all — my mother’s family, we celebrate Christmas. My father’s family, we celebrated Hanukkah. But I can tell you, having gone to space twice and looking back on our planet, looking at the stars around us, it is very hard not to be spiritual.

But it was only recently, in the last couple weeks that I was inspired for the first time in a very long time to pick up the Bible, and I’ll tell you why.

It’s because of Charlie, and it’s for Charlie, and there’s millions others just like me. Thank you.”

One of the theories as to why Trump withdrew Isaacman’s nomination in May was because of Isaacman’s past political and financial support for numerous Democratic Party candidates, along with his apparent support for DEI at his companies. It was speculated that once Trump learned of these associations during the confirmation process he decided Isaacman was not trustworthy and dumped him.

I wonder now if Isaacman changed Trump’s mind when they met several times in the past few weeks by talking about Kirk’s assassination and how it had changed Isaacman. I can easily see how that would have influenced Trump.

This is also another case of the Democrats and their most radical and public cohort doing a good job of alienating another former Democrat, simply by advocating and committing violence against those who disagree. They did it to Trump and Elon Musk, both former Democrats, and apparently they have done it to Isaacman as well.

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Three launches since yesterday, with a fourth upcoming today [scrubbed]

9:19 am

The beat goes on: Since yesterday there were three launches globally, two by China and one by SpaceX, with a fourth launch scheduled by Blue Origin only a few hours hence. UPDATE: Blue Origin launch scrubbed due to weather].

First China’s solid-fueled Long March 11 rocket placed three classified military test satellites into orbit, lifting off from an ocean platform off China’s northeastern coast.

Next, China’s solid-fueled Kinetica-1 (Lijian-1) rocket placed two “technical satellites” into orbit, lifting off from the “commercial” launchpad at the Jiuquan spaceport in the country’s northwest. As is normal, China’s press provided no information about the satellites, nor where Kinetica-1’s lower stages crashed inside China. The rocket itself is supposedly commercial, but it is built by a government agency, the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Finally, in the early morning hours today SpaceX placed 29 more Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The first stage (B1069) completed its 28th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. With this launch this booster tied the space shuttle Columbia for the number of reuses by a launch vehicle. As the rankings for the most reused launch vehicles below show, SpaceX now has four boosters close to becoming the most reused rockets ever.

39 Discovery space shuttle
33 Atlantis space shuttle
31 Falcon 9 booster B1067
29 Falcon 9 booster B1071
29 Falcon 9 booster B1063
28 Falcon 9 booster B1069
28 Columbia space shuttle

Sources here and here.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

146 SpaceX (a new record)
69 China (a new record)
14 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 146 to 114.

Blue Origin hopes to launch two NASA smallsat Mars orbiters later today from Cape Canaveral, using its New Glenn rocket. That launch is scheduled for 2:35 pm (Eastern). The company will once again attempt to land the first stage on a platform in the Atlantic. I have embedded the live stream below.

UPDATE: Launch scrubbed due to weather. The negotiations with the FAA (see below) now take on greater importance.

This will be the second launch of New Glenn, eleven months after its maiden flight in January. As has been the company’s culture for the past decade, it has moved very slowly from that first launch to this second. This pace however must accelerate soon, as Blue Origin has a 27-launch contract with Amazon to launch part of its Kuiper satellites. Amazon only has 154 satellites in orbit, and needs to get about 1,600 in place by July 2016 to meet the requirements of its FCC license. It also has launch contracts with ULA (46 launches, three of which have been completed) and ArianeGroup’s Ariane-6 (18 launches), but neither can on their own launch enough to do the job.

One last note: For this launch, Blue Origin is trying to arrange an exemption from the FAA’s curfew on day launches that begins tomorrow, in case some issue causes a scrub today. No word as yet on whether the FAA will agree.
» Read more

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Profits for Luxembourg satellite company SES drop due to U.S. budget cuts and shutdown

10:10 am

According to its third quarter report, the profits of Luxembourg satellite company SES were impacted negatively because of the budget cuts of the Trump administration, and were then further impacted because of the extended government shutdown.

Revenue over the first nine months of this year rose 20% to €1.75 billion while losses mounted to €55 million so far in 2025. Part of the problem was the Trump administration reassessment of spending that had been decided last year, including the delay of contract renewals and decisions on new awards, Chief Executive Officer Adel Al-Saleh said. Large contracts have also been delayed by the longest congressional budget standoff in US history, now in its sixth week, he said. “We’re experiencing timing delays in some contract awards due to the continuing resolution and subsequent government shutdown,” Al-Saleh said on a conference call with stock analysts.

The company remains in the black, and it expects to make up these losses from other customers. It is also in the process of completing its purchase of the satellite company Intelsat, which has also impacted its profits.

The article notes one interesting aspect of this Luxembourg company, that reflects the unique approach to tax dollars by that nation’s government: “Luxembourg taxpayers own one-sixth of SES shares, but wield a third of the voting power after underwriting its creation four decades ago.” The government doesn’t simply spend its tax revenue, like most governments. It treats that revenue as investment capital, and uses it to make money for the benefit of its citizens.

If only more governments would take this approach!

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U.S. budget cuts shifts Blacksky’s satellite imaging business to international customers

9:24 am

Because of budget cuts by the Trump administration, the revenues of the satellite imaging company Blacksky fell in the third quarter of 2025, but the company expects to make up that loss with new income from international customers.

The administration’s fiscal 2026 budget proposal includes a one-third reduction to the National Reconnaissance Office’s commercial imagery procurement, a move that has rippled through companies like BlackSky that rely heavily on government intelligence contracts. The cuts specifically affect the Electro-Optical Commercial Layer (EOCL) program — an NRO initiative to buy satellite imagery from commercial providers.

BlackSky reported $19.6 million in third-quarter revenue, missing analyst expectations and down from the previous quarter. Chief Executive Brian O’Toole told analysts the reduction stemmed from adjustments to the company’s EOCL contract “to reflect the potential baseline budget submitted by the administration.”

Sound terrible, eh? Not so fast.

Despite the domestic headwinds, BlackSky is seeing a sharp uptick in overseas business. The company said international sales now account for about half of total revenue, up from 40% a year ago. O’Toole said foreign demand is “outpacing our U.S. government business” and that the company expects international sales to exceed U.S. sales for the first time in 2026.

Blacksky is of course blocked from selling its high resolution reconnaissance imagery to hostile powers, but there are plenty of American allies out there who want this data.

The situation is simple. When American companies are given the freedom to produce, they will create products of value. And the sky won’t fall if the federal government can no longer be their main customer.

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FAA issues a launch curfew due to the shutdown

10:31 pm

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today issued a launch curfew that will ban all launches and re-entries from 6:00 am to 10:00 pm local time.

Accordingly, with respect to commercial space launches and reentries, under the authority provided to the FAA Administrator by 49 U.S.C. §§ 40103, 40113, and 46105(c), and authority delegated to the FAA Administrator under 51 U.S.C. § 50909(a), it is hereby ordered that, beginning at 6:00 a.m. EST on November 10, 2025, and until this Order is cancelled, Commercial space launches and reentries will only be permitted between 10:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m. local time.

It appears the curfew has been imposed because of a shortage of air traffic controllers due to the government shutdown. Each launch needs to be coordinated with air traffic control, and it appears the FAA won’t have the people it needs to do this during the day. This is part of the overall 10% reduction in flights at forty of the busiest airports nationwide imposed at the same time, also due to the shutdown.

This order is going to probably impact planned launches by SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and others, with SpaceX likely affected the most.

Note: I got the curfew times backwards initially, and was corrected by my readers. Post is now correct.

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SpaceX and Arianespace make launch predictions for ’25 and ’26

9:40 am

In separate announcements this week, officials from Arianespace and SpaceX revealed their launch plans for the rest of this year and next.

First, Arianespace officials revealed yesterday that it is hoping to do six to eight Ariane-6 launches in 2026.

During a post-flight conference following the launch of Sentinel-1D, Arianespace CEO David Cavaillès stated that while the company preferred to wait until next year to reveal details about its 2026 launch manifest, it was aiming to double its launch cadence. He added that a cadence of between six and eight next year “will be great.”

If the company does manage eight Ariane 6 flights in 2026, it will already be close to reaching the stated maximum launch cadence of between nine and ten flights per year. When asked if this cadence could be increased, Cavaillès explained that the decision would be driven by customer demand.

Since customer demand for Ariane-6 has been quite low, because of its high cost, don’t expect this launch rate to rise much higher. Arianespace’s only big contract is 18 launches for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. Once that is completed it is not clear where much future business will be coming from, even with some bureaucrats lobbying the European Space Agency to require its members to use it. There are too many cheaper options available now, with many more coming on line, both in America and Europe.

Next, a SpaceX official noted at a conference this week that the company hopes to complete another 25 to 30 Falcon 9 launches before the end of the year.

“We’re aiming for around 170 — between 165 and 170 — which means 25 to 30 more launches to go,” Kiko Dontchev, the company’s vice president of launch, said during a Wednesday session at the Space Economy Summit 2025.

…All together, “we’ll get to 2,400, 2,200 [metric tons launched] or something like that, which is absurd in the grand scheme of where things have been,” he added. Historically, that is close to the global record for metric tons launched to space by all companies and nations — about 2,500 metric tons in 2024, according to Jonathan’s Space Report, compiled by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.

In other words, SpaceX hopes its Falcon 9 rocket will this year alone place in orbit almost the same tonnage launched previously by everyone in the three-quarters of a century since Sputnik.

Cavaillès’ forecast means the company is likely to get very close to its prediction for launches at the beginning of the year, 180, that also included its Superheavy/Starship test launches. Quite an amazing achievement.

And as Al Jolson once said, “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”

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China’s Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter snaps fuzzy picture of interstellar comet 3I/Atlas

9:22 am

Comet 3I/Atlas, as seen by China's Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter
Click for original image.

Chinese engineers have successfully taken a picture of interstellar comet 3I/Atlas as it passed its closest to point to Mars, about 19 million miles away, using their Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter.

The Tianwen-1 team began preparing for the observation in early September. After repeated simulations and feasibility assessments, they determined to use the high-resolution camera on the orbiter and designed optimal imaging strategies, ultimately achieving successful observation.

That image is to the right. Based on the fuzziness of the surrounding stars, the camera was not able to get a perfect focus during the observations. The main take-away is that the images once again prove 3I/Atlas is a comet not unlike those from our own solar system.

The mainstream press and some untrustworthy press-seeking scientists have tried to make a big deal about any interesting data point that has been observed from Comet 3I/Atlas, trying to claim it is some weird alien object of momentous importance. It is not. It is like every other solar system comet, though like those comets it is unique in its own way.

The big discovery here is how similar it is from solar system comets, suggesting that the processes that created our solar system are somewhat common throughout the galaxy.

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State Department blasts the European Union’s proposed Space Act

9:06 am

The European Union
This label would be more accurate if it read
“NOT made in the European Union”

In a comment the State Department posted on November 4, 2025 on the European Commission’s website for public comment in connection with the European Union’s proposed Space Act, the Trump administration lambasted that law as imposing “unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.”

As a general matter, the United States expresses deep concern regarding measures in the proposed Act that would impose unacceptable regulatory burdens on U.S. providers of space services to European customers.

As close partners in civil, commercial, and security aspects of space cooperation for decades, the EU should proceed cautiously when developing and refining the proposed EU Space Act to ensure it provides a permissive and adaptable framework that promotes innovation, investment, and fair competition for the U.S., EU, and EU member states commercial sectors, while respecting each other’s sovereignty. Otherwise, the ability of the United States, the EU, and EU members to maintain government-to-government burden-sharing partnerships could be threatened. These non-tariff barriers would introduce challenges in the areas of space weather, remote sensing, space exploration, spaceflight safety, space debris mitigation and remediation, communications, as well as cooperations with the European Space Agency.

No one should be surprised by this response. Trump has always been aggressive in his desire to limit regulation. He has also been passionate about defending U.S. sovereignty. As I noted in June 2025 when the law was first released,
» Read more

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Trump renominates Jared Isaacman for NASA administrator

8:51 am

Jared Isaacman
Billionaire Jared Isaacman

President Donald Trump late yesterday announced that he has renominated billionaire Jared Isaacman as his nominee to become the administrator of NASA.

Just as Trump had given no reasons why he had withdrawn Isaacman’s nomination in late May, in his announcement yesterday Trump made no effort to explain why he had changed his mind.

One week ago I would have said that Isaacman’s nomination would proceed very quickly to a vote in the Senate, as he had already been vetted completely in the spring and was fully expected to be confirmed within days when Trump pulled the nomination. Now however I expect the Senate might want to bring Isaacman back for questioning in response to the leak this week of a policy paper he had written in the spring outlining his plans for NASA should he be approved.

That paper, still not released to the public, apparently contained a lot of specifics about Isaacman’s plans to reshape NASA that appeared to raise the hackles of the many swamp creatures in DC that live off the government trough. Isaacman addressed that leak in a very long and very detailed tweet yesterday that outlined in detailed but general terms what his goals were in that paper, and it could be his reasoning in this tweet that convinced Trump to renominate him. As Isaacman concluded:

This plan never favored any one vendor, never recommended closing centers, or directed the cancellation of programs before objectives were achieved. The plan valued human exploration as much as scientific discovery. It was written as a starting place to give NASA, international partners, and the commercial sector the best chance for long-term success. The more I see the imperfections of politics and the lengths people will go, the more I want to serve and be part of the solution… because I love NASA and I love my country

These speculations however are all worthless. As we really don’t know the exact reasons why Trump pulled the nomination in May, it is difficult to guess why Trump changed his mind now.

It will be interesting to see how the Senate responds to this new Trump decision.

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Arianespace launches European radar satellite

8:32 am

The commercial arm of the European Space Agency, Arianespace, yesterday successfully launched Europe’s Sentinel-1D radar satellite, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from France’s French Guiana spaceport.

As noted here,

The 2,184-kilogram Sentinel-1D satellite is a twin of Sentinel-1C, which was launched aboard a Vega C rocket in December 2024. Given that the Ariane 62 can deliver more than 10 tonnes to low Earth orbit, launching the 2.3-tonne Sentinel-1D on a dedicated flight appears excessive, particularly as its twin was launched on a Vega C rocket.

Officials claimed the reason was a need to get the satellite in orbit because one in orbit had failed, and because of the delay in Vega-C launches because of a launch failure. Since Vega-C however has fixed the nozzle issue that caused the failure and resumed launches, this argument is unconvincing. I suspect the real reason is that Arianespace has had problems getting customers for Ariane-6. Other than Amazon, which purchased 18 launches, European companies and nations have been generally reluctant to use Ariane-6 because it is too expensive (it is expendable).

This was only the fifth launch by Europe in 2025, so the leader board for the 2025 launch race remains unchanged:

143 SpaceX
67 China
13 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 143 to 111.

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China delays return of Shenzhou 20 crew due to possible capsule damage from “space debris”

11:02 pm

Shenzhou-16 after undocking in 2023
Shenzhou-16 after undocking in 2023. Click for source.

In a very brief statement today by China’s state-run press, it announced the planned return on November 6, 2025 of the Shenzhou-20 crew that has just completed their six month mission on the Tiangong-3 space station has been delayed indefinitely due to “a suspected impact from tiny space debris” on their Shenzhou capsule.

According to the statement “impact analysis and risk assessment are under way.”

A new crew arrived at the station on October 31, 2025 on the Shenzhou 21-capsule, and after a few days transition were to take over operations while the crew of Shenzhou-20 returned home.

We do not know the extent of the damage or even when it was first detected. Depending on the damage, China has several options. First, after review it could decide to return the crew on Shenzhou-20.

Second, it could decide that a fresh replacement capsule needs to be launched. If so, the old crew’s mission might be extended for a few months, as happened to a Soyuz crew on ISS in 2023 because of a leaking coolant system. First Russia launched a new empty capsule to ISS, and then the damaged capsule returned unoccupied. That way a lifeboat was always docked for that stranded crew.

It might also be possible to patch the damage, depending on its size and location.

In every case, the situation should not be critical. I am assuming the station is well stocked at this time, so that a crew of six instead of three could manage there for about three months. I am also assuming China has more Shenzhou capsules in the pipeline and can prepare a new one relatively quickly. Finally, I am also assuming China’s Shenzhou capsules can dock autonomously, as do their unmanned Tianzhou freighters.

And then again, if any of my assumptions are wrong, this situation could become more serious.

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More Washington shenanigans over who will be NASA’s next administrator

12:17 pm

Two news outlets in the past day (Politico and Ars Technica) have posted stories about a 62-page plan — supposedly written by Jared Isaacman while he was still the nominee to become NASA administrator — that was recently leaked to them as well as others inside and outside NASA.

The plan itself, dubbed “Project Athena”, has not been made available, though the descriptions at both sources suggest it matches closely with the overall Trump effort to cancel SLS and Orion and shift space operations out of NASA and more into the private sector.

The nature of this plan of course threatens NASA’s established work force and the big space contractors who have worked hand-in-glove with NASA for decades, producing little but distributing a lot of money and jobs to these groups. Not surprisingly, both news sources quote extensively from anonymous sources within that NASA work force and those big space contractors, lambasting the plan and blasting Isaacman for proposing it. From the Politic article:

Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy: “Pick me! Pick me!”

Putting all of these plans into writing is a “rookie move,” and “presumptuous,” said an industry insider who has seen the document and thought it would stoke congressional skepticism around his nomination. Many of these ideas would need congressional approval to enact, and Congress could always block them.

The Ars Techica article speculates that interim NASA administrator Sean Duffy was the source of the leak, in his effort to become NASA’s official administrator. If the plan is Isaacman’s, it generates opposition to renewing Isaacman’s nomination as NASA administrator while garnering support for Duffy from NASA’s workforce and those big space contractors.

All of this is pure Washington swamp, however, which really matters little in the long run. First of all, none of this is real. We are talking about an unreleased plan that no one has seen publicly, and the reactions of anonymous sources criticizing that unseen plan. It is all the stuff of ghosts and fantasy. For we know, it is all made up, just like the Russian collusion hoax was manufactured against Trump.

Second, and more important, who runs NASA next is becoming increasingly unimportant. » Read more

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First unmanned test flight of India’s Gaganyaan capsule likely slips to next year

9:47 am

Artist rendering of India's Gaganyaan capsule
Artist rendering of India’s Gaganyaan capsule

Though India’s space agency ISRO still insists it will attempt the first unmanned orbital test flight of its Gaganyaan capsule before the end of 2025, its chairman has also indicated this schedule might slip into early next year due to agency’s upcoming launch schedule.

The problem is that it only has one launchpad for its largest rocket, LVM3 (recently nicknamed Bahubala) that Gaganyaan must use, and it has a contract with the American satellite company AST SpaceMoble to use Bahubala to launch one of its satellites next month. Furthermore, a Bahubala launch just occurred on that pad two days ago to launch a communications satellite for the Indian government. Thus, to do both the AST and Gaganyaan launches by the end of this year would mean it would have to do three launches from that pad in less than two months, something ISRO has never done.

ISRO plans to do at least three unmanned test flights of Gaganyaan before it attempts a manned orbital mission in 2027. If the first mission is slips into 2026, next year will be a very active one for ISRO, more active than that agency has been since it shut down during COVID.

Based on the present schedule, it appears that ISRO will set a pace of about one Bahubala launch every two months to complete this schedule, with the first Gaganyaan launch occurring around February 2026, and the next two Gaganyaan test launches in summer and fall. That would set the stage for the manned mission in early 2027.

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China will launch its upgraded manned Mengzhou-1 capsule in 2026

8:01 am

Mengzhou as of 2023
Mengzhou mock-up from 2023. Click for source.

China this week revealed that it plans the first flight of its new larger Mengzhou-1 manned capsule next year, launching from its coastal Wengchang spaceport on its new Long March 10 rocket.

Mengzhou features a modular design consisting of a return capsule and a service capsule and will operate as the primary link between Earth and the space station.

The first flight of Mengzhou-1 will utilize the Long March-10A rocket from the Wenchang Space Launch Site in Hainan, targeting a docking with the space station’s core module radial port. This debut mission will validate the craft’s systems while transporting environmental monitoring devices, technical payloads, astronaut supplies, and experimental gear for science and technology demonstrations.

Both capsule and rocket are intended as China’s future mainstays for its manned program, both in Earth orbit and beyond. Mengzhou is intended as the manned capsule that will get its astronauts to lunar orbit, where its Lanyue lunar lander will take them to and from the surface. Both will be launched separately by the Long March 10 rocket.

Long March 10 has been in development since 2017, and will have the ability to place 70 tons in low Earth orbit and 27 tons to lunar orbit. It is thus comparable to SLS, but costing far less with its first stage incorporating recovery and reuse. It will also be capable of launching much more frequently and at a much faster pace.

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A think tank releases its detailed review of the American satellite communications industry

11:09 am

The state of the satellite constellation industry
Go here and here for originals.

Link to the press release is here. To read the actual report go here.

The report was issued by the LEO Policy Working Group, which calls itself “an independent body dedicated to providing forward-looking, data-driven analysis and policy recommendations to ensure the successful and sustainable deployment of next-generation Low Earth Orbit satellite systems.” In reviewing the membership of this group, I noticed that only one member appeared drawn from the industry itself (a former OneWeb advisor). The rest of the members were from lobbying groups, government agencies, academia, or DC think tanks.

Thus, I immediately wondered if this report was aimed against SpaceX and its present dominance, designed to justify further government regulation against it.

In reviewing the report however it does not seem so, at least on the surface. The report very accurately and detail describes the present state of the industry and all the players, including all the present constellations in orbit or under construction. It also describes the state of the launch industry on which they depend, including the risks entailed by SpaceX’s present dominance. At the same time it also notes at length that there is no evidence that SpaceX is doing anything to take advantage of that dominance.

Its recommendations are generally vague, and can be summed up simply as “Government should remain vigilant but do nothing drastic at this time.”

The report’s main benefit however its overall summary of the industry, as well as its detailed description of how the spectrum is regulated by government agencies.
» Read more

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Is the German government holding up Rocket Lab’s purchase of German space communications company Mynaric?

10:08 am

Even though Rocket Lab announced in March that it was acquiring the German laser communications company Mynaric for $150 million, and entered into the stock purchase agreement in September, the company has not yet gotten approval for the purchase from the German government, raising questions that approval might be denied.

A central question for regulators and industry observers is whether Mynaric, once owned by Rocket Lab, would still be deemed a European entity — a status that could determine its eligibility to compete for Europe’s planned sovereign communications network, known as IRIS² (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite). The multibillion-euro program, backed by the European Union, is designed to strengthen Europe’s independence in secure satellite communications and may restrict participation to European-controlled firms.

Those regulators however also have to consider whether IRIS will even fly. Designed to provide a government option to the internet constellations being operated or built by Starlink, Kuiper, and several Chinese projects, it is significantly delayed, vastly over budget, and unlikely to compete very successfully. There have been rumors several EU nations are even balking at building it at all.

If Rocket Labs’ purchase of Mynaric is denied, it will likely not harm that company significantly. It will however be another example of Europe cutting off its nose to spite its face. It will block this American company from providing business to Europe, even as its own government projects wither on the vine.

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Update on Vast’s first planned space station, Haven-1

9:51 am

Haven-2
Haven-2 station once completed

Link here. The article essentially puts together a number of X links that Jay has provided Behind the Black previously in his daily Quick Space Links reports to provide an overall picture. Two aspects stand out however.

One, the demo Vast launched this weekend on SpaceX’s bandwagon mission is expected to fly for about six months, and has successfully deployed its solar panels. During its flight the company will “test out key capabilities, such as Reaction Control Systems (RCS), power systems, and propulsion, in preparation for Haven-1”, which it hopes to launch in the spring.

Two, Haven-1’s planned mission remains unchanged. The company still intends to fly four crewed missions to it during its three-year mission, though who will make-up the crew and passengers remains unknown. This single module station is aimed at proving Vast’s capabilities at space station design and operation to convince NASA to award it a much larger contract to build its much larger Haven-2 multi-module station.

Max Haot [Vast’s CEO] described Haven-1 as the “minimum viable product”. With its one docking port and reliance on a SpaceX Crew Dragon for key life support systems, the station will enable the company to test out capabilities needed for larger stations in the future. The Dragon spacecraft requires a daily change of its CO2 scrubber; therefore, the station will launch with the necessary amount needed for 30-40 days on station for four astronauts.

All in all, Vast appears to be strongly demonstrating its capabilities, on schedule, making my listing it number one as most likely to win that big NASA contract increasingly correct. That ranking is made even more reasonable with the decision by NASA to now award several of those contracts, at smaller amounts, in a step-by-step process that matches milestones. Below is my updated rankings of the four commercial stations under development:
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China launches “remote sensing” satellite, setting a new national record for annual launches

9:26 am

China early today successfully placed what its state-run press described as a “remote sensing satellite” aimed at Earth observations, its Long March 7 rocket lifting off from its Wenchang coastal spaceport.

The only thing that state-run presssaid was the satellite would “primarily [be] used in disaster prevention and relief, land resource surveys, hydrology, meteorology, and other related fields.” As for the launch, this was a coastal launch, with the rocket’s lower stages landing in the ocean.

This launch was the 67th for China in 2025, which breaks the annual record of 66 it set in 2023. As China tends to bunch more launches in the last two months of the year, expect it to add at least ten to this number.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

143 SpaceX
67 China (a new record)
13 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 143 to 110.

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Two former NASA administrators express wildly different opinions on NASA’s Artemis lunar program

1:07 pm

At a symposium yesterday in Alabama, former NASA administrators Charles Bolden and Jim Bridenstine expressed strong opinions about the state of NASA’s Artemis lunar program and the chances of it getting humans back to Moon before the end of Trump’s term in office and before China.

What was surprising was how different those opinions were, and who said what. Strangely, the two men took positions that appeared to be fundamentally different than the presidents they represented.

Charles Bolden
Charles Bolden

Charles Bolden was administrator during Barack Obama’s presidency. Though that administration supported the transition to capitalism, it also was generally unenthusiastic about space exploration. Obama tasked Bolden with making NASA a Muslim outreach program, and in proposing a new goal for NASA he picked going to an asteroid, something no one in NASA or the space industry thought sensible. Not surprisingly, it never happened.

Bolden’s comments about Artemis however was surprisingly in line with what I have been proposing since December 2024, de-emphasize any effort to get back to the Moon and instead work to build up a thriving and very robust competitive space industry in low Earth orbit:

Duffy’s current messaging is insisting it’ll be accomplished before Trump’s term ends in January 2029, but Bolden isn’t buying it. “We cannot make it if we say we’ve got to do it by the end of the term or we’re going to do it before the Chinese. That doesn’t help industry.”

Instead the focus needs to be on what we’re trying to accomplish. “We may not make it by 2030, but that’s okay with me as long as we get there in 2031 better than they are with what they have. That’s what’s most important. That we live up to what we said we were going to do and we deliver for the rest of the world. Because the Chinese are not going to bring the rest of the world with them to the Moon. They don’t operate that way.” [emphasis mine]

In other words, the federal government should focus on helping that space industry grow, because a vibrant space industry will make colonizing the Moon and Mars far easier. And forget about fake deadlines. They don’t happen, and only act to distort what you are trying to accomplish.

Meanwhile, Jim Bridenstine, NASA administrator during Trump’s first term, continued to lambast SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander contract, saying it wasn’t getting the job done on time, and in order to beat the Chinese he demanded instead that the government begin a big government-controlled project to build a lander instead.
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China launches three astronauts to its Tiangong-3 space station

9:24 am

China today successfully launched a new crew of three astronauts to its Tiangong-3 space station, its Long March 2F rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

No word from China’s state-run press where the rocket’s lower stages, which use very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed. The Shenzhou capsule is expected to dock with the station later today, which is tomorrow in China.

With this launch, China also tied the record it set in 2023 for the most successful launches in a single year, 66. The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

141 SpaceX
66 China
13 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 141 to 108.

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Latvia signs Artemis Accords

9:09 am

According to a report out of Latvia today, that nation has now signed the Artemis Accords, becoming the 60th nation to join this American-led space alliance.

The report, which apparently comes from a government agency aimed at encouraging industry in Latvia, also noted that Latvia had this year also became a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty.

Because of the government shutdown, there has been as yet no confirmation of Latvia’s signing. If confirmed, the full list of Artemis Accords signatories is as follows: The full list of nations who have signed the accords: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

With this signing, not only have all the former European subject nations to the Soviet Union joined, so have Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, all three of which were occupied and made part of the Soviet Union against their will after World War II. These events suggest that Russia’s neighbors really don’t like the bully that lives next door. It also suggests they are less fearful of it, as they are now willing to ally themselves with the U.S., located on the other side of the globe.

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SpaceX: Starship will be going to the Moon, with or without NASA

12:27 pm

Artist's rending of Starships on the Moon
SpaceX’s artist’s rending of Starships on the Moon.
Click for original.

In what appears to be a direct response to the claim by NASA’s interim administrator Sean Duffy that SpaceX is “behind” in developing a manned lunar lander version of Starship, SpaceX today posted a detailed update of the status that project, noting pointedly the following in the update’s conclusion:

NASA selected Starship in 2021 to serve as the lander for the Artemis III mission and return humans to the Moon for the first time since Apollo. That selection was made through fair and open competition which determined that SpaceX’s bid utilizing Starship had the highest technical and management ratings while being the lowest cost by a wide margin. This was followed by a second selection [Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander] to serve as the lander for Artemis IV, moving beyond initial demonstrations to lay the groundwork that will ensure that humanity’s return to the Moon is permanent.

Starship continues to simultaneously be the fastest path to returning humans to the surface of the Moon and a core enabler of the Artemis program’s goal to establish a permanent, sustainable presence on the lunar surface. SpaceX shares the goal of returning to the Moon as expeditiously as possible, approaching the mission with the same alacrity and commitment that returned human spaceflight capability to America under NASA’s Commercial Crew program.

The update then provides a list of the testing and engineering work that SpaceX has been doing on the Starship lunar lander, including full scale drop tests simulating lunar gravity, qualification of the docking ports, and the construction of a full scale mock-up of the Starship cabin to test its systems.

A close list of the work done is actually not that impressive, but at the same time this is not surprising. SpaceX is now mostly focused on getting Starship into orbit, proving it can be refueled there, and proving it can fly for long enough to get to the Moon. This part of the update was most exciting, as it confirms what I have suspected for next year’s flight program:
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Colorado sues the Trump administration over its decision to move Space Force headquarters to Alabama

11:47 am

The Democratic Party attorney general of Colorado yesterday announced he is suing the Trump administration over its decision to relocate the headquarters of the Space Force from Colorado Springs to Huntsville, Alabama.

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser is suing President Donald Trump’s administration over its “retaliatory” decision to relocate U.S. Space Command from Colorado Springs to Huntsville, Alabama.

In a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court of Colorado on Wednesday, Weiser wrote that the president “could not have been clearer about his motivations” for the move, citing Trump’s comments during the Oval Office announcement last month acknowledging that Colorado’s elections, which he falsely described as “crooked,” were a “big factor” in his decision.

That admission makes Trump’s decision to vacate Space Command’s temporary location in Colorado — the latest twist in a years-long battle over the permanent home of Space Force headquarters — an unconstitutional violation of state sovereignty, Weiser said in a press conference. “The executive branch isn’t allowed to punish, retaliate, or seek to coerce states who lawfully exercise powers that are reserved to them,” Weiser said. “And that includes the power to oversee the time, place and manner of elections.”

Weiser’s lawsuit has little chance of winning in court. No state can tell the federal government where to place its facilities, no matter what the reason. The suit is mainly a crumb Weiser is throwing to his local Democratic Party supporters, showing them he as is equally controlled by Trump Derangement Syndrome as they are.

I should note that I also strongly disagree with Trump’s decision in this case. It will cost a lot of money, and will gain us nothing. The military’s space operations have been based in Colorado for more than a half century. Though a major reorganization of this bureaucratic structure is warranted, it would be far better to reorganize it there, rather than try to recreate it elsewhere.

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Roscosmos forced to replace next manned Soyuz capsule due to damage during test

11:38 am

Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has replaced the Soyuz capsule it was going to use in the next manned mission to ISS, scheduled for launch in late November, because of “major damage” the capsule experienced during normal pre-flight testing.

[D]uring routine post-production tests at ZEM’s Checkout and Test Facility, KIS, Vehicle No. 759 reportedly suffered major damage to its thermal protection system, which could not be repaired in time for the Expedition 74 launch at the end of 2025. According to one source, quoting an officer within the military certification service, Voennaya Priemka, which traditionally oversees quality control in the Russian rocket and space industry, the ship’s main thermal control heat shield, attached to the base of the Descent Module, was accidentally jettisoned, perhaps by a stray signal triggering the pyrotechnic bolts, connecting the Frisbee-shaped structure to the capsule. According to another source, the thermal layers of the shield peeled off, as a result of botched thermal tests.

That Russia can quickly swap capsules this late in the game speaks well of its Soyuz capsule manufacturing process. It doesn’t just build one or two capsules, it has an assembly line.

That the capsule was damaged during the test however once again raises questions about the overall quality control within the Russian space industry, as well as the reliability of its workforce. It has been building Soyuz capsules now for more than a half century, during which it has steadily implemented upgrades along the way. For there to be “a stray signal triggering the pyrotechnic bolts” during routine testing is disturbing. The circumstances are too similar to the earlier sabotage to both Progress and Soyuz capsules, where the evidence suggested someone on the ground had drilled holes in their hulls prior to launch, then patched them to hide their existence until later while in orbit.

Under Putin the living wages of Russian engineers has suffered. It remains a distinct possibility that there are more than a few malcontents within Roscosmos willing to do such stuff. That Roscosmos investigated the previous sabotage, claimed it identified the cause, but refused to release any information about its conclusions, suggests strongly that this is what what happened in those earlier cases. This new incident in turn raises the possibility now of further sabotage.

It once again is critical that the U.S. get out of its space station partnership with Russia as soon as possible. There are too many known and unknown risks.

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A slew of propaganda today from China’s state-run press attempts to hide the delays in its manned lunar program

10:27 am

The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured
The Tiangong-3 station, as presently configured

Generally China’s state-run news agency Xinhua posts no more than one to two short space-related articles per day, with most confined to simply announcing the launch of a rocket.

Today however that state-run agency posted a dozen short articles, linked it appeared to the two press conferences held in connection with tomorrow’s launch of a new crew to China’s Tiangong-3 space station.

The list above is not complete, leaving out a few other short propaganda pieces. Some of these stories — such as those directly related to that new crew launch tomorrow — could have easily been folded into one report. They were not, however, in order to create a large number of separate reports, which in turn hides the fact that there is only one news outlet reporting anything from those two press conferences.

Out of this plethora of stories, two news items stand out however. One, China has now agreed to fly a Pakistani to Tiangong-3. Negotiations for that mission began in 2018. Training has now finally begun. China is also moving forward on flying astronauts from Hong Kong and Macao, two places formally run by western powers that China now controls, quite oppressively. Like the Soviet Union, it is using its space program for propaganda stunts to distract those regions from its iron rule.

Second and more important, Chinese officials claim their program to do a manned lunar landing is still on schedule for a 2030 launch.
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