Tag: Russia

Read the full transcript of Tuesday’s briefing in Russia on the subject of the U.S./Russian cooperation in space.

8:39 am

Read the full transcript of Tuesday’s briefing in Russia on the subject of the U.S./Russian cooperation in space.

It is very worthwhile reading the entire thing. The text makes it very clear that Russia is not kicking us out of ISS, as has been wrongly reported by several news agencies. It also makes clear that the Russians consider the Obama administration’s actions childish, thoughtless, and unproductive. They also emphasize how the U.S. government is generally an “unreliable” partner in these matters, something that I have noted before when our government has broken space agreements with Europe.

The text also clarifies the GPS situation. The stations we have in Russia are in connection with scientific research, something they wish to do also in the U.S. If an agreement isn’t reached, that research will cease. Actual use of GPS for navigational purposes will not be effected.

Side note: NASA says that they have not yet received any official notice from Russia concerning the briefing above. This might be because Rogozin’s briefing was meant merely as a shot across the bow, or it could be that the Russians have not yet gotten around to doing it. We shall see.

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Russia fights back

9:50 am

Much has been made about the sanctions the Obama administration has imposed on any cooperation with Russia due to the situation in Ukraine and how those sanctions might damage the commercial and manned space efforts of the United States.

So far, all evidence has suggested that the sanctions have little teeth. The Obama administration exempted ISS from the sanctions. It also appears to be allowing the shipment of all commercial satellites to Russia for launch. Even a court injunction against using Russia rocket engines in U.S. military launches was lifted when the Obama administration asked the judge to do so.

The Russians now have responded. Why do I take their response more seriously?
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Obama administration officials from three departments have asked a federal judge to lift her injunction against Lockheed Martin’s use of Russian engines in its Atlas 5 rocket.

9:31 am

Obama administration officials from three departments have asked a federal judge to lift her injunction against Lockheed Martin’s use of Russian engines in its Atlas 5 rocket.

Not much teeth in these sanctions imposed by the Obama administration, is there? They exempt ISS, which is the bulk of NASA’s effort with the Russians. Now they wish to exempt the Atlas 5. Pretty soon I expect them to exempt almost everything else.

Putin and the Russians are certainly watching this story unfold, and will use what happens here to help gauge how much they can get away with in the Ukraine. And based on some fascinating information conveyed by a caller to my appearance last night on the Space Show, the Russians are definitely going to have to grab more of the Ukraine to make their capture of the Crimea stick. Expect that situation to remain very hot for the near future.

I will again be discussing this subject in depth tonight on Coast to Coast with George Noory.

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On the radio

1:57 pm

In addition to my May 6 at 7 pm (Pacific) appearance on the Space Show with David Livingston to discuss the situation with the Russians and ISS, I am also going to appear on Coast to Coast with George Noory on May 7 from 10 to 11 pm (Pacific) to discuss the same topic.

The Russian situation is a difficult one for the United States, and the reason it is difficult is because of a long series of incredibly stupid decisions by our elected officials, from both parties, for the past decade. Nor is my complaint here 20-20 hindsight. From the day George Bush proposed retiring the shuttle in 2010 and not replacing it until 2014, at the earliest, I have said this is stupid and astonishingly short-sighted. Sadly, Congress liked Bush’s short-sightedness and has been endorsing it now for a decade. Hearing them complain now about our dependence on Russian space capabilities is more than infuriating. Where were they when they might have done something to prevent this situation?

Listen in. I think it will be entertaining.

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A gigantic forest fire threatens Russia’s new spaceport under construction in Vostochny.

9:12 am

A gigantic forest fire threatens Russia’s new spaceport under construction in Vostochny.

[Spaceport construction chief Konstantin] Chmarov reportedly characterized the fire-fighting effort in the region as “chaos.” Fueled by hot weather and strong winds, the fire approached the airport in Svobodny and was also moving toward Vostochny. In the meantime, satellite images showed heavy smoke blanketing the future space center.

The Putin government has been giving the completion of this spaceport a high priority. Having it burn down before completion is not what they want.

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SpaceX has won an injunction from a federal judge, preventing ULA from buying any further Russian engines.

9:03 am

SpaceX has won an injunction from a federal judge, preventing ULA from buying any further Russian engines.

Federal Claims Court Judge Susan Braden said her preliminary injunction was warranted because of the possibility that United Launch Alliance’s purchase of Russian-made engines might run afoul of the sanctions. NBC News’ past coverage of the issue was cited in Braden’s ruling.

Wednesday’s injunction prohibits any future purchases or payments by the Air Force or United Launch Alliance to NPO Energomash, unless and until the Treasury Department or the Commerce Department determines that the deal doesn’t run counter to the U.S. sanctions against Russian officials. Braden stressed that her ruling does not affect previous payments to the Russians, or purchase orders that have already been placed. United Launch Alliance says it already has some of the engines on hand.

This injunction is not directed specifically at the Air Force’s bulk buy from ULA, nor does it address the cartel-like nature of the ULA monopoly for Air Force launches that SpaceX is challenging. However, it does put a serious crimp, if temporary, on the use of Lockheed Martin’s Atlas 5 rocket, which depends on the engine for all its launches. Though the company has engines in stock, they will quickly run out with no way to immediately replace them.

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On the radio

10:49 pm

I will be making a special appearance on the Space Show this coming Tuesday, May 6, at 7 pm (Pacific) to discuss at length how the political friction between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine might impact the situation at ISS.

Should be quite fun. Feel free to tune in and to call in questions.

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More delays seen in the completion of a new and critical module to the Russian portion of ISS.

9:40 am

More delays seen in the completion of a new and critical module to the Russian portion of ISS.

The delays have nothing to do with the Ukraine and everything to do with poor quality control in the Russian company building the module.

This quote stood out however:

With its central position in the architecture of the Russian segment, the MLM’s troubles also stall the launch of all subsequent Russian components of the station, including the Node Module, UM, (already under construction) and the NEM laboratory and power supply module, whose full-scale development started in 2012.

Given such a prolonged delay, combined with worsening political relations between Russia and its partners in the ISS project, the questions were raised whether the MLM module and the successive components of the Russian segment could be grounded until the assembly of the new all-Russian station in the post-ISS era. Under such a scenario, the troubled spacecraft could play a role of an early hub for the future orbital outpost.

If the Russians get enough modules built to launch their own station, I expect them to do it and cut their ties with ISS.

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Russia responds to new U.S. sanctions by threatening U.S. astronauts on ISS.

10:06 am

Uh-oh: Russia responds to new U.S. sanctions by threatening U.S. astronauts on ISS.

Moscow reacted with fury to the inclusion in the sanctions of high-tech exports to Russia and threatened reprisals. “If their aim is to deliver a blow to Russia’s rocket-building sector, then by default, they would be exposing their astronauts on the ISS,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said, according to the Interfax news agency.

“Sanctions are always a boomerang which come back and painfully hit those who launched them,” added Rogozin on a visit to Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in March. [emphasis mine]

Was Rogozin actually hinting that Russia might strand U.S. astronauts on ISS?

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A proposed House bill would forbid use of Russian rocket engines in launching any American military payloads.

4:52 pm

A proposed House bill would forbid use of Russian rocket engines in launching any American military payloads.

This bill is being put forth partly because of the Ukrainian situation and partly to support SpaceX’s effort to break the ULA Atlas/Delta monopoly on military launches. Whether it makes any sense or not is of course beside the point.

Meanwhile, the State Department has expanded the sanctions on satellite exports to Russia, which might threaten some future commercial Proton launches.

Both actions suggest that Elon Musk’s political clout is growing. Obviously his company’s concerns are not the prime motivation behind these decisions, but we should note that both actions hurt his direct competitors, while doing little harm to SpaceX.

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Russia has noticed literally no change in cooperation with NASA since the U.S. government announced two weeks ago that all such cooperation, excluding ISS, was being cut off.

9:59 am

Surprise, surprise! Russia has noticed literally no change in cooperation with NASA since the U.S. government announced two weeks ago that all such cooperation, excluding ISS, was being cut off.

Russia’s Roscosmos space agency has yet received no official notifications from NASA on curtailing cooperation, and working contacts continue, Roscosmos chief Oleg Ostapenko said in an interview with Vedomosti newspaper Wednesday. “Roscosmos has received no official notifications on suspending cooperation, we continue working contacts with NASA and other space agencies,” Ostapenko told Vedomosti adding: “Recently I held talks with the NASA leadership and European colleagues.”

More info here.

I had said that so-called NASA cut-off was all show and aimed not at Russia but at Congressional budget negotiations over NASA’s commercial crew program. This story only proves it.

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Russia is accelerating construction of its new spaceport in Vostochny.

9:52 am

The competition heats up: Russia is accelerating construction of its new spaceport in Vostochny.

The schedule doesn’t appear to have been pushed up, with the first launch still set for 2015, but they are going to initiate a second shift, and will have monthly meeting with the government to monitor progress. Under the top-down Russian way of doing things, this is how they make sure their high priority projects get finished on time and successfully.

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Congress and NASA administrator Charles Bolden battled over ISS, Russia, crew transport, and commercial space yesterday in a hearing before Congress.

8:20 am

Congress and NASA administrator Charles Bolden battled over ISS, Russia, crew transport, and commercial space yesterday in a hearing before Congress.

Not surprising. Congress wants to know what NASA will do if Russia pulls out of ISS and Bolden really has few options if they do. He in turn was trying to get Congress to focus on funding commercial space so that we can launch our own astronauts to ISS and not depend on the Russians. A true confederacy of dunces. More here.

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According to the deputy head of Russia’s space agency, they are not planning any retaliatory sanctions against NASA.

2:45 pm

According to the deputy head of Russia’s space agency, they are not planning any retaliatory sanctions against NASA.

Whew! That’s a relief.

Seriously, I never expected them to do anything, as the sanctions NASA has imposed, excluding ISS, are so minor that they mean nothing to Russia. The only people NASA really hopes will react to these sanctions are Congressmen and Senators when they realize how dependent we are on the Russians to get to space.

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NASA’s short statement, in connection to the Obama administration’s decision to suspend all non-ISS related activities with Russia, is almost entirely a demand for more funding for its commercial space program.

9:36 am

NASA’s short statement, in connection to the Obama administration’s decision to suspend all non-ISS related activities with Russia, is almost entirely a demand for more funding for its commercial space program.

To quote:

NASA is laser focused on a plan to return human spaceflight launches to American soil, and end our reliance on Russia to get into space. This has been a top priority of the Obama Administration’s for the past five years, and had our plan been fully funded, we would have returned American human spaceflight launches – and the jobs they support – back to the United States next year. With the reduced level of funding approved by Congress, we’re now looking at launching from U.S. soil in 2017. The choice here is between fully funding the plan to bring space launches back to America or continuing to send millions of dollars to the Russians. It’s that simple. The Obama Administration chooses to invest in America – and we are hopeful that Congress will do the same.

Though I agree with them about accelerating manned commercial space, I can’t help wondering if this suspension of activities was actually instigated to generate this lobbying effort. ISS comprises the bulk of the U.S.’s cooperative effort with Russia, and by exempting that from this suspension the Obama administration essentially exempts practically everything, making the suspension somewhat meaningless.

What the suspension does do, however, is highlight our fragile dependency on Russia, just as Congress begins debate on the 2015 budget.

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In a vague announcement with unclear ramifications, a NASA memo today suspended “all contact with Russian government officials,” though it exempted all activities in connection with ISS.

12:38 pm

In a vague announcement with unclear ramifications, a NASA memo today suspended “all contact with Russian government officials,” though it exempted all activities in connection with ISS.

Given Russia’s ongoing violation of Ukraine¹s sovereignty and territorial integrity, until further notice, the U.S. Government has determined that all NASA contacts with Russian Government representatives are suspended, unless the activity has been specifically excepted. This suspension includes NASA travel to Russia and visits by Russian Government representatives to NASA facilities, bilateral meetings, email, and teleconferences or videoconferences. At the present time, only operational International Space Station activities have been excepted. In addition, multilateral meetings held outside of Russia that may include Russian participation are not precluded under the present guidance.

It appears they are suspending all NASA activities with Russia except ISS, which means that the most important and the bulk of the cooperative work will continue. However, it does mean that the Obama administration has decided to politicize NASA’s operations with Russia in a way that has not been done since the fall of the Soviet Union.

I will be doing a segment on John Batchelor tonight on this developing story.

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Scientists from the joint European/Russian ExoMars rover mission have narrowed their candidate landing sites to four.

9:43 am

Scientists from the joint European/Russian ExoMars rover mission have narrowed their candidate landing sites to four.

Last week, 60 scientists met at ESA’s European Space Astronomy Centre near Madrid to discuss eight potential sites. On 27 March, they cast an informal vote, and four sites emerged as favourites: Mawrth Vallis, Oxia Planum, Hypanis Vallis and Oxia Palus. An expert working group tasked with recommending a final landing site will now consider the proposals, before announcing a formal shortlist of three or four sites in June. Following detailed studies of the shortlisted sites, the panel will make a single recommendation to ESA and Roscosmos in late 2016.

This is maybe the most risky mission to Mars in decades, as the landing design is coming from the Russians, who have not had a successful interplanetary mission since the era of the Soviet Union, and even then had a 100% failure rate for their missions to Mars. (On a more optimistic note, the European Mars Express mission used a Russian rocket to take off, making it the first Mars mission with Russians participation that actually succeeded.)

One of the factors that has made this mission more risky is the fact that the U.S. was once a participant and backed out very late in the game. The Russians are our replacement, and have had to scramble to catch up.

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Though engineers still don’t know why the Soyuz spacecraft was oriented incorrectly, thereby preventing a scheduled engine firing, they have uploaded new software and have subsequently executed two additional burns successfully.

10:10 pm

Though engineers still don’t know why a Soyuz spacecraft carrying three astronauts to ISS was oriented incorrectly — thereby preventing a scheduled engine firing yesterday — they have uploaded new software and have subsequently executed two additional burns successfully.

The engine firings are excellent news, since they demonstrate that the capsule can make the necessary orbital maneuvers to get it to ISS.

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An expected engine burn on board the Soyuz capsule taking three astronauts to ISS did not take place as scheduled, forcing at minimum a two day delay in the rendezvous and docking.

8:46 am

An expected engine burn on board the Soyuz capsule taking three astronauts to ISS did not take place as scheduled, forcing at minimum a two day delay in the rendezvous and docking.

[NASA spokesman Rob] Navias said the engine burn was aborted due to a problem with the Soyuz’s attitude control system, but further details were not immediately available. “Right now we don’t understand exactly what happened,” a mission manager at Russian Mission Control told the Soyuz crew late Thursday. Ground controllers planned to download data from the Soyuz and determine whether the glitch was due to a hardware or software problem. [emphasis mine]

Though the astronauts are not in any immediate danger, this is very worrisome. Indications from various other news stories suggest the problem was software related, which in a sense is a good thing. They would still have the option to manually fire their engines to do a manual rendezvous and docking. However, if it isn’t a software issue, and the vagueness of the reports so far makes me wonder about this, they might instead be stranded. Let us hope not.

Update: This report gives a little more information. It appears the capsule itself was not in the right orientation at burn time, and the computer software, sensing this, canceled the burn. If so, the problem might be software (incorrectly gauging the position of the spacecraft) or mechanical (something failing so that the capsule is not oriented correctly). Engineers need to find out which.

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Arianespace and the Russian-owned Sea Launch are seeking to get the restrictions against them removed so that they can sell their services to more customers.

9:26 am

The competition heats up: Arianespace and the Russian-owned Sea Launch are seeking to get the restrictions against them removed so that they can sell their services to more customers.

Arianespace wants to sell its launch services to the U.S. government, something it is not allowed to do right now because of U.S. restrictions. These are the same kinds of restrictions that has prevented SpaceX from launching military satellites and which that company is now contesting.

Russia meanwhile wants to use Sea Launch for its own payloads, but because Sea Launch’s platform is based in California, the Russian government won’t allow their payloads on it because of security reasons. They want the platform moved to Russia so that they can use their own company to launch their own satellites.

The article also describes how Japan is trying to reduce the cost of its H-2A rocket by 50% so that it can become more competitive.

All in all, I would say that the arrival of SpaceX has done exactly what was predicted, shaken the industry out of its doldrums. How else to explain this sudden interest in open competition and lowering costs? These companies could have done this decades ago. They did not. Suddenly a new player arrives on the scene, offering to beat them at their own game. It is not surprising that they are fighting back.

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The Russian company that owns the Proton rocket is considering a redesign that would allow them to launch two satellites on one rocket.

8:36 am

The competition heats up: The Russian company that owns the Proton rocket is considering a redesign that would allow them to launch two satellites on one rocket.

Launching two or more satellites during a single launch is not ground-breaking technology, but the Russian have never done it with their Proton. If they make this change, it will allow them to reduce the cost for a commercial launch considerably, thus making them more competitive against companies like SpaceX.

That they have decided to consider this now, after almost three decades of commercial operation since the fall of the Soviet Union, is more proof that the low prices of SpaceX are forcing innovation and an effort to lower costs across the entire launch market.

Update: My statement above about Proton never launching more than one satellite is wrong. They have done it numerous times, something I am very aware of but for some reason completely forgot when I was writing this post. (The jet lag from the trip to Israel must still be affecting my brain.) In fact, they have just rolled to the launchpad a Proton with two communications satellites on board, a fact that makes the story at the first link above very puzzling.

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