Using archival Hubble images astronomers have rediscovered a moon of Neptune lost for twenty years.
Yesterday, despite the government shutdown, NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, and as I do every month, I am posting it here, below the fold, with annotations.
My interpretation of this data tells me that almost certainly the solar maximum has ended. We might see some later fluctuations whereby the sunspot number jumps, but the Sun is clearly beginning its ramp down to solar minimum.
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Making Martian clouds — on Earth.
They’ve recreated Mars-like conditions within a three-story-tall cloud chamber in Germany, adjusting the chamber’s temperature and relative humidity to match conditions on Mars — essentially forming Martian clouds on Earth. While the researchers were able to create clouds at the frigid temperatures typically found on Mars, they discovered that cloud formation in such conditions required adjusting the chamber’s relative humidity to 190 percent — far greater than cloud formation requires on Earth. The finding should help improve conventional models of the Martian atmosphere, many of which assume that Martian clouds require humidity levels similar to those found on Earth.
The required high humidity seems very counter-intuitive, considering Mars’s presently dry environment. I suspect it implies that there are other unknown factors about the Martian atmosphere that the scientists have not yet considered.
New data suggests that Pluto’s atmosphere is thick enough to not freeze out during the planet’s decades-long winter.
Key quote:
None of this portion of the IPCC assessment is drawn from peer-reviewed material. Nor is it consistent with the documents sent to external reviewers.
Apparently to hide the failure of models to predict the pause in temperature rise during the past fifteen years they tweaked their graphics aggressively, without explanation.
More negative reactions to the IPCC report here.
The weather on an exoplanet: Cloudy and clear.
Astronomers using data from NASA’s Kepler and Spitzer space telescopes have created the first cloud map of a planet beyond our solar system, a sizzling, Jupiter-like world known as Kepler-7b. The planet is marked by high clouds in the west and clear skies in the east. Previous studies from Spitzer have resulted in temperature maps of planets orbiting other stars, but this is the first look at cloud structures on a distant world.
This result is cool, but no one should take it too seriously. They have detected evidence of that to the scientists “suggest” clouds, but no one really knows.
A good global warming scientists comments on the IPCC report: “The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me.”
Read the whole post. Curry illustrates in blunt language how broken the IPCC process is, and how little it has to do with real science.
Divers have pulled fragments from the February 15 Chelyabinsk meteorite impact out of nearby Chebarkul Lake.
Posted from Gaitlinburg, Tennessee, the Coney Island of the Smoky Mountains. The drive today was sadly a lot longer than planned, as we hit bad traffic in Nashville.
Curiosity has found that water and other interesting things permeate the soil of Mars.
When [a soil sample was] heated, the instrument detected the abundance of water [about 2% of the sample] plus significant quantities of carbon dioxide, oxygen and sulfur compounds, according to the researchers. Carbonate materials — compounds that form in the presence of water — were also identified. The experiment confirmed the presence of oxygen- and chlorine-containing compounds — likely chlorates or perchlorates. Originally discovered by NASA’s 2008 Phoenix Mars Lander (and likely detected by NASA’s Viking landers in 1976), perchlorates were found in the soil of high-latitude arctic regions. This indicates that perchlorates occur globally over Mars. Though highly toxic to human biology, some microbes are known to use the oxidizing chemical for energy. This finding intensified the debate over whether hypothetical microbes on Mars could metabolize perchlorates in a similar way.
Perchlorates were proposed as an explanation for the Viking results by scientists who did not believe those results suggested the presence of microbiological life. I find it interesting that now scientists are saying that the perchlorates might actually be evidence of life. Once again, the uncertainty of science rules the day!
Physicists have made molecules out of light.
This is very cool, and could allow engineers to create something like the light sabers from Star Wars.
We are out of El Paso and heading into the barren wilds of western Texas.
Comet ISON has now brightened to 11th magnitude as it approaches its flyby of Mars.
The story above is hopeful the comet will put on a show in November, but I am increasingly doubtful. To be even visible to the naked eye it must brighten to 6th magnitude, and it appears to be brightening far slower than expected.
Posted as we drive through El Paso, Texas.
The uncertainty of science: The Antarctica icecap is now grown to be the largest it has been in 35 years.
Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world. On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.
Uh, maybe the world isn’t warming as predicted?
German politicians openly admit they are trying to squelch any mention in the IPCC report of the recent 15 year pause in global temperature rise.
Despite resistance from many researchers, the German ministries insist that it is important not to detract from the effectiveness of climate change warnings by discussing the past 15 years’ lack of global warming. Doing so, they say, would result in a loss of the support necessary for pursuing rigorous climate policies. “Climate policy needs the element of fear,” [German Green Party politician Hermann] Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.”
Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. “In climate research, changes don’t count until they’ve been observed on a timescale of 30 years,” claims one delegate participating in the negotiations on behalf of German Research Minister Johanna Wanka of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.” [emphasis mine]
I must admire the Green Party politician for admitting that his approach to science and politics is the use of fear. He might be the most honest, if fascist, politician in the world!
The IPCC and the climate science community should be warned, however. Their reputation for honest science is already in the tank. If the IPCC report to be released later this week makes believe that the climate pause hasn’t happened their ability to persuade anyone will be gone forever.
The head of the IPCC, railroad engineer Rajendra Pachauri, plans to step down in 2015.
I don’t know why he is waiting that long. When the next report is released next week the IPCC is likely to be finished. It is very doubtful the UN will get the funds to do another, especially as it appears that a lot of scientists are very disenchanted with how this political process has been warping the science.
A group of Serbian academics, disgusted with the poor state of their country’s research output, have scammed a Romanian science journal by getting it to accept their completely fabricated hoax article.
The paper is replete with transparent gimmicks — obvious, that is, had anyone at the publication been paying attention — including a reference to the scholarship of [singer Michael] Jackson, Weber, [porn star Ron] Jeremy and citations to new studies by Bernoulli and Laplace, both dead more than 180 years (Weber died in 1920). They also throw in references to the “Journal of Modern Illogical Studies,” which to the best of our knowledge does not and never has existed (although perhaps it should), and to a researcher named, dubiously, “A.S. Hole.” And, we hasten to add, the noted Kazakh polymath B. Sagdiyev, otherwise known as Borat.
Their paper is hilarious and completely ridiculous, and yet it was published in a so-called serious journal without question. The best part is that they list Alan Sokal’s hoax paper from 1996 as one of their sources.
The strange and alien plant life of Socotra Island.
The global warming scientists at the IPCC struggle to explain the lack of warming.
Though scientists don’t have any firm answers, they do have multiple theories. Xie has argued that the hiatus is the result of heat absorption by the Pacific Ocean — a little-understood, naturally occurring process that repeats itself every few decades. Xie and his colleagues presented the idea in a study published last month in the prestigious journal Nature.
The theory, which is gaining adherents, remains unproved by actual observation. Surface temperature records date to the late 1800s, but measurements of deep water temperature began only in the 1960s, so there just isn’t enough data to chart the long-term patterns, Xie said. [emphasis mine]
This theory, that the oceans are absorbing all the heat, is one of the new favorite explanations for the lack of warming by advocates of global warming. However, as this article correctly notes, we have no good data to support it, and even fewer theories to explain it.
The truth is really summed up by the article’s last paragraph:
“This unpredicted hiatus just reflects the fact that we don’t understand things as well as we thought,” said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder and vocal critic of the climate change establishment. “Now the IPCC finds itself in a position that a science group never wants to be in. It’s in spin management mode.”
The Senate has passed a bill to allow the continued sale of the government’s stockpile of helium, but this time at market prices.
The House has already passed a similar bill. The two sides of Congress now have to come to agreement. If they don’t, come October sales cease and the supplies dry up.
Flying in formation: Engineers have pushed the four orbiting Cluster satellites into their closest configuration yet.
In an orbital reconfiguration that will help to maintain the mission’s life span, two of the four satellites achieved their closest-ever separation on 19 September, closing to within just 4 km of each other as they orbited at up to 23 000 km/h high above Earth. “We’re optimising the Cluster formation so that the separation between Cluster 1 and the duo of Cluster 3 and 4 – which are on almost identical orbits – is kept below 100 km when the formation crosses Earth’s magnetic equator,” says Detlef Sieg, working on Cluster flight dynamics at ESA’s ESOC operations centre in Darmstadt, Germany.
This close formation will provide scientists better data, as they are finding that the Earth’s magnetosphere is far more complex than expected.
NASA has officially ended the Deep Impact mission.
Another leak from the IPCC shows that politicians in Belgium, Hungary, Germany, and the United States attempted to pressure the scientists writing the report to cover up the lack in global temperature rise since 1998.
[L]eaked documents seen by the Associated Press, yesterday revealed deep concerns among politicians about a lack of global warming over the past few years. Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries. Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change. Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for statistics, as it was exceptionally warm and makes the graph look flat – and suggested using 1999 or 2000 instead to give a more upward-pointing curve. The United States delegation even weighed in, urging the authors of the report to explain away the lack of warming using the ‘leading hypothesis’ among scientists that the lower warming is down to more heat being absorbed by the ocean – which has got hotter.
Two points: First, for this article to refer to any legitimate scientist who questions the theory of human-caused global warming to be called a “denier” offends me beyond words, as regular readers of this website know.
Second, this leak proves once again the foolishness of allowing politicians to get involved in the scientific process. They should be kept as far away as possible, at all times.
Despite data from orbiting probes that say there is methane in Mars’ atmosphere, Curiosity has detected none.
The detection of methane by orbiting satellites in certain regions of Mars was intriguing as it suggested the possibility of Martian microbiological life. Curiosity is not in those regions, but apparently the scientists thought they’d detect evidence of it from a distance. That they did not reduces significantly the possibility of life on Mars.
Modern science: “Close to 10% of the papers we receive show some sign of academic misconduct.”
This is not good news if an editor of a peer-reviewed science journal admits that 1 in 10 scientists routinely try to cheat when they submit a research paper.
Australia’s new government does the right thing, instantly shutting down its agenda-driven global warming bureaucracy. More details here.
Voyager 1 has enough nuclear fuel to keep doing science through to 2025, and then it will be dead, adrift. On its current trajectory, the probe should eventually end up within 1.5 light years of a star in Camelopardalis, a northern constellation that looks like a cross between a giraffe and a camel. No one knows if there are any planets around that star, nor if aliens will be in residence by the time the probe arrives. “But if they are there, maybe they will capture Voyager 1,” says mission scientist Tom Krimigis of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.
In addition to the above silliness, the article gives a good summary of the real data that Voyager 1 is sending back about interstellar space.
Another look at the leaked IPCC draft report. Key quote:
To those of us who have been following the climate debate for decades, the next few years will be electrifying. There is a high probability we will witness the crackup of one of the most influential scientific paradigms of the 20th century, and the implications for policy and global politics could be staggering.
The article also takes a close look at the contradiction between the data and the IPCC models and says this:
[W]hat is commonly called the “mainstream” view of climate science is contained in the spread of results from computer models. What is commonly dismissed as the “skeptical” or “denier” view coincides with the real-world observations. Now you know how to interpret those terms when you hear them.
Another story on the leaked IPCC report, and how that new report will admit the climate has not warmed as predicted.
After two months of travel, Curiosity on Mars is now taking a short break to study the rocks under its wheels.
Data from the 2011 Virginia 5.6 magnitude earthquake suggests that the North American continent had drifted above a mantle hotspot millions of years ago.
A newly leaked revised draft of the upcoming IPCC report suggests that the climate uncertainties have significantly grown since the last report in 2007.
Most important of all, the new IPCC draft finally admits that the climate has not warmed as predicted and that the climate field does not know why.
They recognize the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.
They admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.
The IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why.
A forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense has simply been dropped, without mention. This year has been one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history and the US is currently enjoying its longest-ever period – almost eight years – without a single hurricane of Category 3 or above making landfall.
The worst aspect of this new draft, however, is how its conclusions completely ignore these admitted uncertainties.
In the new report, the IPCC says it is ‘extremely likely’ – 95 per cent certain – that human influence caused more than half the temperature rises from 1951 to 2010, up from ‘very confident’ – 90 per cent certain – in 2007. [Climate scientists Judith] Curry said: ‘This is incomprehensible to me’ – adding that the IPCC projections are ‘overconfident’, especially given the report’s admitted areas of doubt.
As I’ve noted before, though Curry favors the theory that the climate is warming, she is also a good scientist willing to honestly discuss the uncertainties of the science.
One last point: Most of these newly admitted uncertainties in the upcoming IPCC report were originally discussed in detail in the first IPCC report back in 1990. That 1990 report was an excellent and fair assessment of the overall knowledge of the field, at the time. Since then, none of the science has really been able to reduce any of these uncertainties significantly. All that happened in the ensuing years is that too many climate scientists and in the IPCC decided to make believe the uncertainties didn’t exist any more. Thus, later IPCC reports were filled with false certainty and an unreasonable insistence that the climate field understood what was going on.
These false certainties have now come back to bite that climate field, in the ass.
