Tag: spaceflight

Could Japan’s Hayabusa-2 next target asteroid be instead a failed Soviet Mars probe?

9:53 am

Artist rendering of Phobos-1 in orbit around Mars
Artist rendering of Phobos-1 in orbit around Mars

Scientists reviewing the data known about the asteroid 1998 KY26, the next goal of Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe, now speculate that it might not be an asteroid at all but could instead be the failed Soviet Mars probe, Phobos-1.

The researchers came up with this possibility due to 1998 KY26 small size, its inexplicable orbital shifts, and the fact that its solar orbit closely matches that of Phobos-1 after it failed to enter Mars orbit when a mistyped command shut down its systems.

Hibberd points out that the 10-metre (32.8ft) span of its solar panels matches the estimated size of 1998 KY26 and that the craft would be expected to have a high albedo. The non-gravitational acceleration of the object would be explained by solar radiation pressure as sunlight reflects off the probe’s shiny metallic surfaces.

For the interplanetary trajectory of Phobos 1 to fit the measured orbit of 1998 KY26, the probe would need to have subsequently fired its rocket twice, say the team: once on 2 September 1988 (shortly after contact was lost) and then again on 19 May 1996. This isn’t impossible for a malfunctioning spacecraft and there is some evidence that Phobos 1 did indeed fire its rocket without being commanded.

The last supposition, that the spacecraft fired its engines on its own, is the most implausible part of this theory, but not impossible.

Hayabusa-2 is scheduled to arrive at 1998 KY26 in 2031, assuming its last ion thruster does not fail. We shall then find out if this wild theory is right. If so, the probe will have an entirely different job. Rather than studying a very small asteroid, it will be studying a piece of human space history.

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Watching the 13th orbital test flight of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy

9:10 am

Starship/Superheavy at T-4:00 minutes on July 13th
Starship/Superheavy at T-4:00 minutes on July 16th.
Click for source.

Originally posted July 19, 2026. Bumped to today, the launch date.

Original post:
————————–
Now that SpaceX has confirmed the launch date for the 13th orbital test flight of Starship/Superheavy for July 20, 2026 July 23, 2026, with a 90-minute launch window beginning at 5:45 pm (Central), it is time to provide my readers with the many ways they can watch the launch. I have embedded several live streams below. SpaceX’s live steam can be found here. I will embed it once it begins.

The flight plan remains the same as last week, a low orbit that will bring the ship down in the Indian Ocean. The main goals are to test the Raptor-3 engines, bring Superheavy back as planned, relight a Raptor-3 engine in orbit, and test the ship’ thermal tile system during re-entry. In addition, the company will attempt to deploy 20 actual Starlink satellites rather than dummies.
» Read more

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Locals officials in Louisiana hold meeting about possibility of SpaceX spaceport

9:04 am

Pecan Island SpaceX facility?
Pecan Island SpaceX facility?

A state senator and local realtor yesterday held a public meeting — attended by hundreds — to describe the ramifications to the community should SpaceX or some other big space company establish a spaceport in Vermilion Parish, where the unincorporated village of Pecan Island is located, as shown on the map to the right.

Hundreds of residents gathered at the Erath Community Center to hear from state Sen. Bob Hensgens of Abbeville and local realtor Jim Keaty about the possibility of aerospace development — potentially involving SpaceX — coming to Vermilion Parish, with both men acknowledging the rumors while stopping short of confirming any deal.

Hensgens, a Republican representing District 26, opened the meeting of the Abbeville Rotary Club by making clear the limits of what he knew. “I wanna thank y’all for coming and, and I wanna start off the statement by saying I know no details of any hyper deal economic development in Vermilion Parish right now,” he said. “But like the rest of my constituents, I’ve heard over the last six months the rumors,” he added.

Realtor Jim Keaty added some advice for businesses in the construction trade.

He said those working in construction-related trades in Acadiana may want to prepare now, noting that SpaceX already accepts applications from prospective vendors. “If I was into construction and I was in a trade, like electrical engineer or a contractor, I certainly would try to apply to become a vendor for SpaceX,” he added.

Keaty is the realtor who first revealed the rumors in May. At this moment however nothing is confirmed. SpaceX has not made any firm statement about Louisiana or the 200-plus squaire-mile plot owned by Exxon that is appears to be for sale. Nor has any state official, all of whom like Hensgens say they have no confirmed information about a deal.

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Starlink now available in the Seychelles Islands off the eastern coast of Africa

8:48 am

Starlink has now offering terminals to citizens of the Seychelles Islands, located about 800 miles east of Africa.

Starlink has launched commercial satellite internet services in Seychelles, expanding its footprint to 28 African countries. Unlike its previous African markets, Seychelles already has one of the continent’s highest internet penetration rates and affordable broadband.

The one tidbit of information from this story that struck me was its claim that 28 African nations have approved Starlink. I had not thought it was that high, considering the number of stories of African governments opposing the SpaceX company.

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China launches a communications satellite for its manned space program

8:43 am

China last night successfully launched a communications satellite used by its manned space program, its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.

No mention was made in China’s state-run press as to the crash sites of the rocket’s lower stages, which use very toxic hypergolic fuels.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

88 SpaceX
47 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 88 to 82.

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Crater impact in the ice sheets of the northern Martian lowlands

11:34 am

Crater impact in the ice sheets of the northern Martian lowlands
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on June 1, 2026 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this a crater with “layered deposits,” referring to the terraced glacial debris inside the crater. Researchers have found so many craters on Mars with similar features that they have given it a name, concentric crater fill. Thousands of craters in both the north and south mid-latitudes have this fill, thought to be buried glaciers protected by a mantle of dirt and dust.

The image however reveals a lot more about the ubiquitous presence of ice on Mars. Note the splash apron around the crater. Note also the gaps in the crater rim. The impact that created this crater hit a surface that had a lot of near surface ice, which immediately vaporized and melted to form the splash apron and allow the crater rim to form so unevenly.
» Read more

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Scientists use Juno to get first below surface temperature reading of Jupiter’s moon Io

9:14 am

Global map of Io's temperature, just below the surface
Global map of Io’s temperature, just below the surface.
Click for original.

Using data obtained during two fly-bys of Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io, scientists have now been able to measure for the first time the temperature up to ten to thirty feet below the surface.

The global map to the right, Figure 9 from their paper, shows the range of temperatures detected. Io is known for its many active volcanoes, generated by the tidal heat created by Jupiter’s gravitational pull.

During flybys on Dec. 30, 2023, and Feb. 3, 2024, the solar-powered Juno spacecraft came within about 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) of the moon’s surface. “The instrument measured Io’s thermal emission at depths ranging from a few inches down to tens of feet. Everywhere we looked, we found the temperature rising by more than 40 degrees Fahrenheit just several feet into the surface — a gradient far steeper than solar heating alone can explain,” said Shannon Brown, the paper’s lead author at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

The data suggests two possible explanations. First, heat could be rising steadily through a conductive crust. While this background heat flow — measured at 1 to 3 watts per square meter — is relatively gentle on a local scale (roughly equivalent to a small nightlight glowing under every square yard), across the entire moon it represents a release of energy up to 30 times Earth’s average.

Alternatively, the signal could be coming from cooling lava flows, capped by roughly 30 to 35 feet (9 to 11 meters) of solidified crust, that cover about 10% of the moon’s surface at any given time.

The data also suggested that between Io’s volcanic mountains the rest of the planet is remarkable smooth, like the Great Plains of the U.S. That smoothness is not surprising, as it is probably the result of numerous flood lava events that have coated the surface.

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Chinese pseudo-company launches nine satellites from ocean platform

8:50 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Orienspace today successfully placed nine satellites into orbit, its solid-fueled Gravity-1 rocket lifting off from an ocean platform off the coast of northeast China.

This was the third launch of Gravity-1, all successful. Though supposedly privately designed and built, solid-fueled rockets are routinely used for military missiles. It is thus very likely this “company” was closely supervised by China’s military in developing the rocket, which also likely controls its actions in all ways.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

88 SpaceX
46 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 88 to 81.

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Rocket Lab wins another War Department suborbital contract, worth $266 million

8:31 am

The War Department yesterday announced it has awarded Rocket Lab a second big contract, worth $266 million, for launching its HASTE suborbital version of its Electron rocket.

Rocket Lab USA Inc., Long Beach, California, has been awarded a $266,000,000 firm-fixed-price completion contract for suborbital launch. This contract provides for the launch of 12 suborbital launch vehicles, with six optional launches. Work will be performed at Pacific Spaceport Complex, Alaska, and is expected to be completed by Dec.31, 2028. [emphasis mine]

This deal is on top of a $190 million Pentagon contract Rocket Lab got in March 2026 to do 20 HASTE suborbital hypersonic launches.

Though the announcement does not specifically say the new contract adds 12 HASTE launches to the total, it is the only way Rocket Lab can do suborbital missions. The announcement also carries one very interesting additional detail, as indicated by the highlighted sentence. Rocket Lab presently has launchpads in New Zealand and Wallops Island, Virginia. To launch HASTE from Alaska would require a new pad entirely.

The location however would provide the military greater security and secrecy. Suborbital launches from Wallops are difficult if not impossible to hide. For example, Rocket Lab tried very hard to limit any information about a HASTE launch in April, but the public knew about as it happened. Suborbital launches from Alaska however could occur without anyone knowing. It also might provide the military a hypersonic launch site that could reach Russia and China.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Northrop Grumman writes off $91 million because of its solid-fueled booster nozzle failures

8:01 am

Unexpected debris falling from rocket at about T-1:00
Nozzle failure during February 12, 2026 Vulcan launch

In releasing its second-quarter earnings report, Northrop Grumman revealed it has taken a charge of $91 million as a result of the repeated nozzle failures on its GEM 63XL solid-fueled boosters, used by ULA on its Vulcan rocket.

This charge against earnings is on top of a write off of $71 million in the first quarter, for the same reasons.

ULA is itself losing many millions as well, as it can’t launch and earn revenue. Worse, some customers have begun switching to other launch providers, eliminating that revenue completely.

As for fixing the nozzle issue:

Neither Northrop nor ULA has disclosed details about the cause of the anomaly. In an earnings call, Kathy Warden, president and chief executive of Northrop Grumman, said the company had taken unspecified “corrective actions” that included new components for the motor. “We progressed on the root cause investigation on the GEM 63XL program, and we are implementing corrective actions to address the anomaly we experienced on a launch in the first quarter,” she said. “These include a component redesign, which has now been proven in a successful static-fire test.”

However, she indicated that the redesigned motors may not be delivered for several months. “We expect to begin delivering the redesigned motors by the end of the year,” she said.

This delay also impacts Amazon and its Leo constellation, which awarded ULA a 39-launch contract for launching its Leo satellites. Amazon only has 396 satellites in orbit, and has to get more than 2,660 launched by July 30, 2029 to meet its FCC license. Without those Vulcan launches the company will be hard-pressed to make that date.

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SpaceX launches Northrop Grumman’s MRV robotic servicing satellite

2:22 pm

In doing its second launch in less than eight hours, SpaceX today successfully placed Northrop Grumman’s Mission Robotic Vehicle-1 (MRV) into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral Space Force station in Florida.

The MRV carries three Mission Extension Pods (MEPs), each assigned to attach to a different geosynchronous satellite to provide them fuel and power and extend their life for up to eight years. Two pods will attach to two Intelsat satellites, and the third will attach to an Australian Optus communications satellite. Though Northrop has done this kind of extension mission before, this is the first time it is launching an MRV with multiple pods. Previous robots, dubbed Mission Extension Vehicles (MEV), attached to only one satellite per mission.

The rocket’s two fairings completed their 7th and 31st flights respectively. The first stage (B1069) completed its 32nd flight (81 days after its previous mission). Because of the fuel required to get the MRV to geosynchronous orbit where its target satellites are located, the first stage was not recovered. Instead it splashed down in the Atlantic. The flight however solidified the booster’s position in sixth place in the rankings for the most reused launch vehicle:

39 Discovery space shuttle (retired)
36 Falcon 9 booster B1067
35 Falcon 9 booster B1071
33 Atlantis space shuttle (retired)
33 Falcon 9 booster B1063
32 Falcon 9 booster B1069 (retired)
29 Falcon 9 booster B1077
29 Falcon 9 booster B1078

Sources here and here.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

88 SpaceX
45 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 88 to 80.

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Scientists rally to observe the Falcon 9 that will hit the Moon on August 5, 2026

12:48 pm

Falcon 9 impact location

On August 5, 2026 at precisely 2:35 am (Easten), the upper stage used by the Falcon 9 rocket that launched in 2025 the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R lunar landers will impact the Moon.

Scientists have now published a paper [pdf], outlining the details of that impact and calling on the astronomical community, both professional and amateur, to conduct observations. The image to the right, showing the location on the Moon where the impact will occur, comes from Figure 1 of the paper. From the paper’s conclusion:

The upcoming Falcon 9 upper stage impact on the Moon on 2026 August 5, presents an ideal opportunity for observers in the Americas and space-based assets to study a significant lunar impact in real time. Potential observables from this event include the flash at the time of impact (likely lasting less than a second) and the ejecta plume (lasting minutes to tens of minutes) Although some specifics of the impact (such as its precise visual magnitude) remain unclear due to the complexity of the physical processes involved, this event is an ideal opportunity to calibrate measurements of flash brightness and plume dynamics against a known event, should either be detected.

This event also provides an opportunity to test pipelines for measuring flash properties to locate impact events seismically, and to better understand the multi-modal hazards posed to future lunar infrastructure and astronauts from space debris impacting the Moon. It also provides an opportunity to test our capability to monitor the cislunar environment. Given the renewed interest in the lunar exploration, the impact of artificial bodies on the Moon could is almost certain to become more frequent. To avoid uncontrolled increases in the amount of space debris in lunar orbit (as is the case now in low Earth orbit), advancing monitoring of cislunar space from ground- and space-based facilities will be key.

The scientists note that the impact will occur at night when the Moon is visible in South America and in the low and mid-latitudes of North America. Though the impact flash could be as bright as magnitude 3 (thus visible to the naked eye), its location during the lunar day will likely make it too faint for ordinary observers. They say that a telescope will be needed, that binoculars will not be sufficient.

The paper is also very enlightening in that it provides a detailed history of past observed lunar impacts, both natural and artificial.

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Update on the launch status for three new rockets from Relativity, Rocket Lab, and PLD

11:32 am

Link here. The article describes in detail the present state of development for the three rockets, Relativity’s Terran-R, Rocket Lab’s Neutron, and PLD’s Miura-5.

In the case of Relativity and PLD, it appears both are still on schedule for their first launch before the end of the year.

In the case of Rocket Lab, the company is still targeting a launch before the end of the year, but that date is more questionable because “the program has experienced some hardware setbacks earlier in the year, including the loss of components originally intended for flight use.” In January 2026 the company lost a tank intended for flight during a pressure test. Though the company said it would provide an update in February, no such update has so far been issued.

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The United Kingdom’s leftist government issues press release, touting how much it is spending on space

10:04 am

The leftist Labor Party that is presently in power in the United Kingdom today issued a press release extolling the “more than £62 million [$83 million] in government funding” it is spending to encourage its home-grown space industry.

The funding – unveiled on Monday 20 July at Farnborough International Airshow by Space Minister Liz Lloyd – will support new satellite communications systems and space innovation projects, helping turn early-stage ideas into commercial products, strengthen the UK’s ability to monitor and protect assets in orbit, and build a more resilient domestic space sector.

$56 million of this fund will go to “UK businesses, universities and research organisations,” while the remaining $27 million will go “to support the development of space technologies across UK industry, universities and research organisations.” Not only is this funding small potatoes, insufficient to do more that fund small design studies, much of it is likely going to pie-in-the-sky research not grounded in profit or reality.

This press release contrasts nicely with the statement issued today by the leftist Labor government in Australia. In Australia the government recognized regulation is a problem and vowed to stream line it. In the United Kingdom the Labor government said nothing about this at all, even though the red tape in the UK is far worse than in Australia, having bankrupted two rocket startups and one spaceport.

Based on this UK statement, do not expect much to change in the UK. The Labor government is pouring money into the industry as subsidies, but doing little to fix the country’s more fundamental bureaucratic problems. If anything, these subsidies will worsen things, as a good percentage are going to the very entities in leftist academia that are the source of the problem.

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Australia’s leftist government issues a new policy statement on space

9:46 am

The leftist Labor party that is presently running Australia’s government today issued a new policy statement on the nation’s space industry, focused on trying to encourage its growth.

You can read the statement here [pdf]. Though it is mostly filled with meaningless bureaucratic and leftist jargon, including an an “acknowledgement” of the primary land rights of the aborginal population (or as it calls them, “the many nations of First Peoples”), the statement has one item at the very end that suggests this government recognizes its bureaucracy is slowing development.

After many pages of gobbly-gook that has little substance in reality, that last action item is the following:

Action: Advance regulation and international governance:

  • Evolve domestic regulatory frameworks to support current and emerging
    Australian space activities, ensuring safety, security and national interests
    while enabling entrepreneurship and innovation.
  • Shape international governance by contributing to global rules and norms
    for the safe and sustainable use of outer space.

It appears the Labor government recognizes the regulatory framework in Australia is slowing development, and is at least willing to say it wishes to fix the issue. At the same time, it also vows its continuing allegiance to international globalist regulations and the need to make space “safe and sustainable.”

These two goals are generally opposed to each other. How Labor will square this circle is quite unclear, but at least it appears it is aware of the regulatory issues. Its ability to fix them however will I think be hampered by that party’s very “woke” focus. For example, the statement opens by endorsing ancient aboriginal religious beliefs, but never once recognizes the very basic western values of private property and law that built the country that presently exists.

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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites

9:15 am

SpaceX this morning successfully placed another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage (B1082) completed its 23rd flight (51 days after its previous mission), landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

87 SpaceX
45 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 87 to 80.

SpaceX plans a second launch later today, to place Northrop Grumman’s Mission Robotic Vehicle-1 (MRV) into orbit. The MRV-1 is the first of that company’s next generation of robotic servicing spacecraft. It carries three pods that the company has contracts to deploy to dock with three different geosynchronous satellites and extend their life.

A launch later today by a Chinese pseudo-company is also expected, though this schedule is not as certain.

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Solar scientists come up with another “method” for predicting the Sun’s future sunspot activity

2:41 pm

The uncertainty of science: Using archival data from the last four sunspot cycles, solar scientists think they have found a new method for predicting the Sun’s future sunspot activity, based on what they claim is a “switch-off” moment in each cycle when the most extreme solar events stop happening.

The new prediction method builds on Professor Chapman’s previously developed ‘sunclock’, which maps the Sun’s irregular cycles onto a standard clock. This revealed that the most extreme space weather does not gradually fade away but instead switches off at a distinct point in each solar cycle.

Professor Chapman’s team has found that the number of sunspots present at this switch-off point is closely linked to the peak number of sunspots in the following solar cycle. This provides a new forecasting method that can predict the strength of the next solar cycle around six to seven years before it reaches its maximum, giving a longer lead time than current methods, which rely on waiting until the solar minimum.

Sounds good, eh? I would not bet one plugged nickel on this prediction method. It might work, or it might not, but even if it does, it is not based on any real understanding of why sunspots rise and fall every eleven years. Nor does it explain why the Sun’s magnetic field flips polarity in line with that sunspot cycle. This prediction is merely using past behavior to predict future actions, a method that every stock broker will tell you is fraught with danger.

Knowing however that there is a moment in each cycle where the most active sunspots and solar flares stop happening is useful. This pattern could help theorists figure out what is really going on inside the Sun.

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Another bad indicator relating to the UK’s space effort

2:30 pm

A space junk removal demo mission first proposed in 2024 by the United Kingdom’s space agency has apparently missed a deadline for issuing the final contract award to one of two startups to fly the mission.

The UK Space Agency has missed a deadline to award a £75.6 million contract for the country’s first mission to capture and remove dead satellites from low Earth orbit.

A call for Phase 3 of the mission’s development was published in July 2025, with the contract initially expected to be awarded by 30 March 2026. However, in its final annual report as an independent entity, published on 14 July, UKSA admitted that the contract award had been delayed. The agency is now targeting summer 2026 but has not explained the reason for the delay or provided a more precise timetable.

The two companies are Astroscale (based in Japan with a UK division) and Clearspace, which has been attempting to launch a junk removal mission for the European Space Agency now for almost a decade, with nothing getting off the ground.

This delay should not be a surprise. The Labor government that is presently in power has been in the process of shutting down the space agency, even as it has allocated a half billion dollars for space-related government projects. It has also done nothing to eliminate the red tape that is squelching its private space industry.

It thus makes great sense that this contract hasn’t been issued. For one, the bureaucracy involved is probably in chaos as the Labor government rearranges deck chairs. For another, there is probably little interest by the private sector to do any work in the UK, because the red tape there is stifling, and has already bankrupted two rocket startups and one spaceport. It is very possible both companies declined to bid. Or if they did, the confusion in the government made any decisions impossible.

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India’s government invests approximately $7 million in home-grown satellite company

9:21 am

In a complicated arrangement involving the Indian government and an Indian venture capital firm, the Indian satellite company Dhruva announced last week that it obtained approximately $7 million in private investment.

The money comes out of a government investment fund of just under $200 million — dubbed the Antariksh Venture Capital Fund — established by the agency IN-SPACe but administered by the venture capital company SIDBI Venture Capital Limited. Unlike India’s space agency ISRO — which has for decades run India’s entire space program — IN-SPACe is focused on encouraging a competitive and independent private space sector.

This was the first investment in that government investment fund, coming just before the first successful launch this past weekend by a private Indian rocket company, Skyroot. Besides building satellites, Dhruva appears to also act as a satellite aggregator, obtaining launch services from rocket companies for other satellite companies and then serving to integrate and deploy their satellites. With this investment the company now has $330 million in capital in hand.

It is a bit puzzling why this first investment went to a satellite company, rather than a rocket startup, of which India has several. For India’s space sector to really grow, it needs home-grown commercial rockets. Satellites can’t reach orbit without rockets.

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Russia launches 2nd set of Rassvet satellites

8:51 am

Russia today successfully launched 16 more Rassvet satellites as part of its own Starlink-type internet constellation, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

This launch was originally scheduled for April but never occurred. Furthermore, Russia issued multiple flight plans for this launch covering a period of 24 hours, all likely designed to prevent the Ukraine from targeting the actual launch with drones. The Ukraine considers this constellation a direct military threat, and it appears it has attempted to use drones to attack Plesetsk during earlier launches.

With this launch the Rassvet constellation has 31 satellites in orbit. It is being built by Bureau (Buro) 1440, a so-called private company in Russia, which hopes to get the full 700+ satellite constellation in orbit by 2035.

The leaders in the 2026 launch race:

86 SpaceX
45 China
10 Rocket Lab (plus two suborbital HASTE launches)
10 Russia

For the third straight year SpaceX leads the entire world combined in total launches, 86 to 80.

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