Tag: spaceflight

200-foot-wide asteroid has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032

10:12 am

New data that has refined the solar orbit of 200-foot-wide asteroid discovered in 2024, dubbed 2024 YR4, suggests it has a 1-in-83 chance of hitting the Earth on December 22, 2032.

“Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83,” Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”

Amateur astronomer Tony Dunn shared a simulation of the asteroid approach on his X feed. “Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this.”

The asteroid is rated three on the Torino risk scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants close attention from astronomers and an over 1% chance of impact.

Though most reports say the asteroid is about 200 feet across, there is great uncertainty in that number. It could also be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet.

At the moment the risk of impact is still small. If it does occur, there is a chance it could either cause a major airburst similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor impact in 2013 that injured more than 400 people, or even impact the ground or ocean. If it hits the ocean there is a considerable risk of tsunamis. At the moment it appears its path will cross from South America to Africa in the southern hemisphere, but this data remains very uncertain at this time.

Though there will be doom-sayers, overall this is not a world destroyer. It carries some risk, but we have eight years to refine our knowledge significantly, especially when it will make a close approach of five million miles in 2028. At that time scientists should be able to better measure its size as well as its future orbit, determining more precisely whether it will even hit the Earth in 2032.

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Juno detects the largest volcanic event on Io yet

9:51 am

Changes on Io since April 2024
Changes on Io since April 2024. Click for original image.

Infrared detection of volcanic hot spot
Infrared detection of volcanic hot spot.
Click for original image.

Using Juno’s Italian JIRAM infrared instrument image as well as its optical camera, scientists have detected what appears to be the largest volcanic event yet measured on the Jupiter moon Io, covering an area larger than Lake Superior,

Scientists with NASA’s Juno mission have discovered a volcanic hot spot in the southern hemisphere of Jupiter’s moon Io. The hot spot is not only larger than Earth’s Lake Superior, but it also belches out eruptions six times the total energy of all the world’s power plants.

…The JIRAM science team estimates the as-yet-unnamed feature spans 40,000 square miles (100,000 square kilometers). The previous record holder was Io’s Loki Patera, a lava lake of about 7,700 square miles (20,000 square kilometers). The total power value of the new hot spot’s radiance measured well above 80 trillion watts.

The pictures above were taken by Juno’s optical camera during the last three close flyby’s, looking down at the south pole, with the red arrows indicating the change to the pole’s right during each pass. The infrared image to the right shows a similar view during the fly-by, and shows that same hot spot as the bright area to the pole’s right.

Juno will do another fly-by of Io in March, though from a greater distance. Scientists plan to use both instruments to see how this hot spot has changed again since the end of December.

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United Kingdom awards rocket startup Orbex $25 million

9:29 am

The government of the United Kingdom has made a sudden and unexpected $25 million grant to the British rocket startup Orbex, which recently announced it was abandoning its launchpad at the Sutherland spaceport and switching to the Saxavord spaceport on the Shetland Islands.

While the UK Government has supported Orbex through grants awarded via the European Space Agency’s Boost! programme, the £20 million investment appears to represent the state acquiring a stake in the company and its future. This signals a significant show of support from the government as the company gears up to compete in the European Launcher Challenge.

Channeling former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Technology Secretary Peter Kyle declared that the government’s backing of Orbex would enable the launch of “British rockets carrying British satellites from British soil.”

It seems to me that this cash award is less an investment in the company and more a kind of guilt payment by the United Kingdom government because the red tape of its bureaucracy, the Civil Aviation Authority, prevented Orbex from launching at Sutherland for almost three years, delays that eventually forced the switch to Saxavord, which after its own long red tape delays finally has its license approvals not yet issued to Sutherland.

Orbex has probably indicated to the government that these delays have caused it significant cash flow problems, similar to what happened to Virgin Orbit where red tape delays eventually drove it to bankruptcy. The company also probably told the government it needed extra cash to prepare the launchpad at Saxavord for its rocket, money it had already spent at Sutherland and no longer had.

Thus, this $25 million government grant. The UK government realized that if a second rocket company went belly-up due to its red tape, it would likely end forever any chance of getting any rocket company from considering launching from the United Kingdom.

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Blue Ghost makes second orbital burn, setting up transfer from Earth to lunar orbit

9:14 am

Blue Ghost's first view of the Moon
Blue Ghost’s first view of the Moon.
Click for original image.

Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander has successfully completed its second orbital burn, raising its Earth orbit in preparation for its shift into lunar orbit in the coming weeks.

Routine assessments while Blue Ghost is in transit show that all NASA payloads continue to be healthy. Firefly and NASA’s payload teams will continue to perform payload health checkouts and operations before reaching the Moon, including calibrating NASA’s Lunar Environment Heliospheric X-ray Imager (LEXI), continued transit operations of the Lunar GNSS Receiver Experiment (LuGRE), and analysis of radiation data collected from the Radiation Tolerant Computer (RadPC) technology demonstration.

The picture to the right looks across the top of Blue Ghost, with the small bright object beyond its first image of the Moon. The actual landing is at least four weeks away.

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The blobby bottom of Utopia Basin

3:05 pm

The blobby bottom of Utopia Basin
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 25, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled merely as a “terrain sample,” it was likely taken not as part of any specific research project, but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule so as to maintain the camera’s proper temperature.

The terrain is definitely blobby, with some hollows appears to have ripple dunes suggesting dust and sand. The rounded mounds and some hollows however suggest instead near surface ice or places where sublimation of that underground ice caused the hollows.

Some of the circular depressions might suggest impact craters, but if so, those craters have been significantly modified and softened since impact. Some do appear to be filled with glacial debris.
» Read more

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Arianespace to launch Ariane-6 five times in 2025, with the first launch targeting February 26th

9:27 am

Arianespace now plans to launch the Ariane-6 rocket five times in 2025, with the first launch scheduled for February 26, 2025.

On 13 and 14 January, the Ariane 6 core stage stack and two solid-fuel boosters were successfully brought together on the ELA-4 launch pad. While this process was occurring, an Antonov transport plane touched down at Felix Eboué Airport carrying the rocket’s payload, the CSO-3 reconnaissance satellite.

This will be the first commercial payload launched by Ariane-6, a military reconnaissance satellite for France.

In addition, the Vega-C rocket is scheduled for six flights, though some of those flights might be arranged and controlled by the rocket’s Italian builder, Avio, not the European Space Agency’s commercial arm, Arianespace. Sometime in the next two years Arianespace’s responsibiilty for Vega-C is being phased out, so that Avio will own and sell all further launches.

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Firefly planning five launches from Vandenberg in 2025

9:00 am

In announcing its plans to begin launches from both Wallops Island in Virginia and Esrange in Sweden in 2026, Firefly has also said it is planning five launches from Vandenberg in 2025.

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea

The company is also building a launchpad at Cape Canaveral, so if these plans reach fruition it will eventually have four different launch sites. One issue for all these sites remains red tape. For example:

[Firefly VP Adam] Oakes said Firefly is continuing to work on regulatory issues for launches from Esrange. “The regulatory piece can really put you back if you want to let it,” he said. “We have a lot of paperwork in place. We’re not quite there on everything but things are moving in the right direction.”

One serious problem for Esrange is its interior location in Sweden. Any orbital launch will have to cross land, with most crossing significant territory of other countries. While the site has been used for decades for suborbital test launches, no orbital launches have ever taken off from there, and getting clearance will not be easy for orbital rockets to cross either Norway, Finland, or Russia. And unless the lower stages are reusable they will have to crash inside those territories, or inside Sweden itself.

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SpaceX launches another 21 Starlink satellites, including 13 with direct-to-cell capabilities

3:13 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 21 Starlink satellites, including 13 with direct-to-cell capabilities, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 20th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. At this time the first iteration of the direct-to-cell Starlink sub-constellation is largely complete, and the company has begun beta testing using these satellites directly with smartphones on Earth.

The 2025 launch race:

12 SpaceX
6 China
1 Blue Origin

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Barren Mars

10:45 am

Panorama by Perseverance on sol 1400, January 27, 2025
Click for full resolution panorama. For original images, go here, here, and here.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Cool image time! The panorama above was created by me using three pictures taken today (here, here, and here) by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Perseverance. The top of the rover can be seen to the right, as well as its tracks.

The overview map to the right provides the context. The blue dot marks Perseverance’s present position. The white dotted line its past travel route, with the red dotted line indicating the planned route. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by the panorama.

Though the planned route had the rover head west and then south, the rover team instead had the rover retreat eastward about 450 feet the past few days, where it sits now. At the previous western location the team had attempted to find a location to drill a sample core, but apparently the ground was not satisfactory. By retreating to this previous location it could be they think they will have better luck.

What strikes me about this hilly terrain just outside Jezero Crater is its barrenness. You would have great difficulty anywhere on Earth finding terrain so empty of life. On Mars however there is nothing but dirt and rocks, for as far as the eye can see.

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Strap-on booster of Long March 3B launched yesterday crashed next to home

9:53 am

Long March 3B
Long March 3B

One of the four strap-on boosters used by a Long March 3B rocket that was launched yesterday from the Xichang spaceport in southwest China ended up crashing right next to a home.

The TJS-14 satellite launched on a Long March 3B rocket from Xichang Satellite Launch Center on Thursday at 10:32 a.m. EST (1532 GMT; 11:32 p.m. local time). The satellite is safely on its way to geostationary orbit, but one of the rocket’s four strap-on side boosters fell to Earth in a populated area of Zhenyuan County in Guizhou province.

Security camera footage posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo captured the scene of two family members reacting to an explosion near their home that lit up the night sky. Fortunately, the booster, which exploded on impact, fell in what appeared to be hills above the house.

The video can be viewed here. While the booster apparently missed the house, any remaining hypergolic fuel in the booster posed a very serious health threat, especially if it was released as a gas. That fuel is extremely toxic, and can dissolve skin if it makes contact. I would expect that until a major clean-up occurred at the crash site, the people that lived in that home will have to evacuate.

China has said that it intends to replace all of its hypergolic-fueled rockets with liquid-fueled, and is expanding operations at its Wenchang coastal spaceport as well. When however these rockets stop launching from its interior spaceports remains unknown. It is likely in fact that toxic stages will continue to fall on the heads of Chinese citizens for years to come.

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European rocket startups team up to send letter to ESA outlining their priorities

11:18 am

In a surprising joint action, six European rocket startups have sent a detailed letter to the European Space Agency (ESA) outlining several recommendations about policy required by these rocket startups in order for their industry to prosper.

The companies involved were HyImpulse, Latitude, MaiaSpace, Orbex, Rocket Factory Augsburg and The Exploration Company. The letter’s recommendations were wide-ranging and appeared focused on getting ESA to free up the industry from traditional European red tape.

  • Provide funding in the range of €150 million to a limited number of rocket companies, not all. The companies say that funding will make it possible for the winning companies to raise another €1 billion in private investment capital. Limiting the number of companies getting awards will also force competition and achievement. The awards should also be granted only after specific milestones are achieved, not based on promises of eventual achievement.
  • Ease access to launchpads both at French Guiana and in Norway and the United Kingdom. Right now French rule-making at French Guiana is hindering that access, and ESA rules about launches make it harder to use the new commercial spaceports in Norway and the UK.
  • Red tape must be reduced. For example, ESA should not set rules on the size of payloads, but give companies “the freedom to determine their payload capabilities, allowing market dynamics to drive innovation rather than imposing artificial requirements.”

That the German rocket startup Isar Aerospace did not sign this letter is interesting, especially since it is now only a few months from completing its first orbital test launch of its Spectrum rocket from the new spaceport in Andoya, Norway. It also has a twenty-year lease for that launchpad.

It is also interesting that the letter did not include the newly proposed orbital spaceport Esrange in Sweden. That launch site has been used for decades for suborbital tests. It is now attempting to make itself available for orbital tests as well. Its interior location however is likely the reason these rocket companies left it out. Too many issues for them to consider launching from there.

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