Tag: ULA

Speculation on future New Glenn launch schedule

9:26 am

According to anonymous sources at Blue Origin, the company has now delayed the second launch of its New Glenn rocket to September, ten months after its first launch in January 2025, and hopes to quickly follow with three more launches by the middle of 2026.

The September launch will launch NASA’s two smallsat Escapade Mars orbiters.

After Escapade, Blue Origin has several missions tentatively plotted out. However, sources cautioned that the manifest could be moved around due to the readiness of subsequent New Glenn vehicles and their payloads. Based upon information received by Ars, the launch manifest could look something like this:

  • New Glenn 2: ESCAPADE (fall 2025)
  • New Glenn 3: Firefly’s Elytra orbital transfer vehicle (end of 2025, early 2026)
  • New Glenn 4: Blue Moon MK1 lander (first half of 2026)
  • New Glenn 5: First batch of 49 Amazon Project Kuiper satellites (mid-2026)

Whether this schedule will occur as speculated is unknown. Blue Origin’s long term track record — slow and timid — suggests it is very unlikely. And even if it does fly as planned, it suggests strongly that Amazon is not going to meet its FCC license requirement to have 1,600 Kuiper satellites in orbit by July 2026. So far Amazon has only placed 54 operational Kuiper satellites into orbit, on two Atlas-5 launches. It has contracts to launch these satellites 46 times on ULA rockets (8 on Atlas-5 and 36 on Vulcan), 27 times on Blue Origin’s New Glenn, 18 times on ArianeGroup’s Ariane-6, and 3 times on SpaceX’s Falcon-9.

Except for the Falcon 9, none of the other rockets have begun flying with any frequency. Vulcan has only launched twice, New Glenn once, and Ariane-6 twice. All three have been extremely slow to ramp up operations, with months passing between each launch. To meet Amazon’s FCC license requirements, they will have to achieve between 35 to 60 launches in the next twelve months, a pace of three to six launches per month. At this point none of these companies appear capable of even coming close to doing this.

Nor does Amazon have the option to switch these launches to the Falcon 9. SpaceX would certainly accept the business, but the manifest for the Falcon 9 is presently very full. It is doubtful it could do more than double or triple its commitment to Amazon.

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Nozzle blows off of Northrop Grumman SLS solid rocket booster during static fire test

1:05 pm

During a static fire test of a new upgraded strap-on solid-fueled booster to be used on the second version of NASA’s SLS rocket, it appears the nozzle broke off near the end of the test.

I have embedded the video below.

This failure is not good for getting the upgraded version of SLS built, dubbed Block 2. Block 1 has flown once unmanned, and is planned for the next two manned missions. Block 2 would be for further manned missions beyond that. The Trump administration has proposed cancelling it, ending SLS after those two Block 1 flights. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has instead introduced a bill that would save it in order to fly two Block 2 SLS manned missions.

This failure is definitely going to delay and add cost to Block 2 development, a program that is already over budget many times over and a decade-plus behind schedule. These additional delays and cost overruns are not going to help it politically. It justifies the Trump administration’s desire to cancel it.

Moreover, this nozzle failure suggests a very fundamental design problem. Northrop Grumman, which built and was testing this booster, also builds the solid-fueled strap-on boosters used on ULA’s Vulcan rocket, which had a similar nozzle failure during Vulcan’s second launch in October last year. Both Northrop Grumman and ULA have said they had identified and fixed the cause of that failure, and the military has certified it for operational launches, but nonetheless Vulcan still remains sidelined, more than eight months later.

I suspect ULA is going to have to do more testing of the Northrop Grumman Vulcan side boosters before its next Vulcan launch, delaying that rocket further.
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ULA launches the second set of Kuiper satellites into orbit

8:44 am

ULA this morning successfully placed 27 Kuiper satellites into orbit, its Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was the second set of Kuiper satellites launched for Amazon. It now has 54 satellites in orbit, with a requirement to launch about 1,600 by July of 2026.

As this was only the second launch in 2025 for ULA, both Atlas-5 launches of Kuiper satellites, the leader board in the 2025 launch race remains unchanged.

77 SpaceX
35 China
8 Rocket Lab
7 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 77 to 58.

ULA had predicted it would do 20 launches in 2025. It appears the company will not only not reach that goal, it will not do so by a lot.

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ULA scrubs 2nd Kuiper constellation launch due to technical issue

10:24 am

ULA today scrubbed its second Atlas-5 launch to place 27 more of Amazon’s Kuiper constellation satellites into orbit due to “an engineering observation of an elevated purge temperature within the booster engine.”

At the moment no new launch date has been scheduled.

So far Amazon has only placed 27 operational Kuiper satellites into orbit, on a single Atlas-5 launch in April. According to its FCC license, it must have 1,600 satellites in orbit by July 2026. Though it has contracts to launch these satellites 46 times on ULA rockets (8 on Atlas-5 and 36 on Vulcan), 27 times on Blue Origin’s New Glenn, 18 times on ArianeGroup’s Ariane-6, and 3 times on SpaceX’s Falcon-9, except for SpaceX all these companies have had problems getting off the ground.

Whether Amazon can meet the FAA licence requirement by next year is becoming increasingly questionable.

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SpaceX launches GPS satellite for military

10:51 am

SpaceX this morning successfully placed a military GPS satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic. As of posting the satellite has not yet been deployed.

This was the second military GPS launch that the Space Force has taken from ULA and its Vulcan rocket and given to SpaceX instead. Even though Vulcan was certified in late March by the military for these kinds of military launches, delays in getting Vulcan operational forced the Space Force to find another more reliable launch provider. Even now, two months after that certification, ULA has still not announced a launch schedule for this rocket. The company in December 2024 had predicted it would launch 20 times in 2025, with 16 of those launches being by Vulcan. The year is almost half over now and ULA has only launched once, using an Atlas 5 rocket.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

66 SpaceX
32 China
6 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 66 to 51.

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Pentagon official blasts ULA’s slow Vulcan launch pace to Congress

10:00 am

In written testimony to Congress submitted on May 14, 2025, the acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration, Major General Stephen Purdy, blasted ULA’s very slow effort to get its new Vulcan rocket operational, causing launch delays for four different military payloads.

“The ULA Vulcan program has performed unsatisfactorily this past year,” Purdy said in written testimony during a May 14 hearing before the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. This portion of his testimony did not come up during the hearing, and it has not been reported publicly to date. “Major issues with the Vulcan have overshadowed its successful certification resulting in delays to the launch of four national security missions,” Purdy wrote. “Despite the retirement of highly successful Atlas and Delta launch vehicles, the transition to Vulcan has been slow and continues to impact the completion of Space Force mission objectives.”

The full written testimony [pdf] is worth reading, because Purdy outlines in great detail the Pentagon’s now full acceptance of the capitalism model. It appears to be trying in all cases to streamline and simplify its contracting system so as to more quickly issue contracts to startups, which were not interested previously in working with the military because they could not afford the long delays between proposal acceptance and the first payments.

In the last decade it appears this process is having some success, resulting for example in the space field the launch of multiple hypersonic tests by a variety of rocket startups. Purdy’s written testimony outlines numerous other examples.

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ULA launches Amazon’s first 27 Kuiper constellation satellites; SpaceX launches more Starlinks

4:17 pm

Two more launches today. First, SpaceX completed another Starlink launch, placing 27 satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California, with its first stage completing its 25th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

Next, ULA successfully launched the first 27 Kuiper internet constellation satellites for Amazon, its Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

As of posting the Kuiper satellites have not yet been deployed. As this was ULA’s first launch this year, the company is not included in the leader board for the 2025 launch race.

49 SpaceX
22 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 49 to 38. Two more launches are still scheduled for today, one by SpaceX placing more Starlinks into orbit, and a second a classified Angara launch out of its Plesetsk spaceport in northeastern Russia.

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Watch Atlas-5 launch of Amazon’s first 27 Kuiper satellties

3:23 pm

I have embedded below the live stream of the launch today of ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket, carrying the first 27 satellites for Amazon’s planned 3,200 satellite Kuiper internet constellation designed to compete directly against SpaceX’s Starlink.

The first launch attempt several weeks ago was scrubbed due to weather. This is one of fifteen Atlas-5’s still in ULA’s inventory, eight of which are reserved for Kuiper launches, six of which are reserved for future missions of Boeing’s manned Starliner capsule, and one of which will place into geosynchronous orbit a communications satellite for Viasat.

After these launches ULA will rely entirely on its new Vulcan rocket.

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Space Force gives SpaceX launch originally contracted to ULA

8:45 am

For the second time in less than a year, the Space Force has taken a launch away from ULA and given the payload to SpaceX to launch.

The GPS III SV-08 satellite, the eighth in the GPS III constellation, is now scheduled to launch no earlier than late May aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, the Space Systems Command announced April 7.

This marks the second time in recent months that the Space Force has reassigned a GPS launch from ULA to SpaceX. Last year, the GPS III SV-07 satellite was moved from a planned ULA Vulcan rocket launch in late 2025 to a SpaceX Falcon 9, which successfully launched on December 16 in a mission called Rapid Response Trailblazer.

Both switches were apparently triggered because of the delay in getting ULA’s new Vulcan rocket certified by the military, resulting in all of ULA’s launches in 2025 being pushed back significantly. That certification finally occurred a few weeks ago, but it appears the Space Force has decided that ULA won’t be able to get all those launches off this year as planned. It therefore decided to shift this launch to SpaceX.

This situation once again highlights the importance of private companies to move fast in the open competition of private enterprise. SpaceX has always done this, and thus it gets contracts and business that other companies that move with the speed of molasses lose.

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Space Force awards SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin $13.7 billion in launch contracts

10:41 am

The Space Force yesterday awarded a combined $13.7 billion in launch contracts to SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin, covering military launches through 2032.

The contracts, announced April 4 by the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command, are part of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 procurement, a cornerstone initiative designed to bolster the Pentagon’s access to space for its most sensitive and risk-averse missions.

SpaceX emerged as the leading contractor, securing $5.9 billion in anticipated awards, followed by ULA at nearly $5.4 billion and Blue Origin at nearly $2.4 billion. The three companies are expected to collectively perform 54 launches under the agreement between fiscal years 2025 and 2029.

Based on the contracts, SpaceX will do 28 launches, ULA 19, and Blue Origin 7. Since these launches include many military payloads that must go on “risk-adverse” rockets, the distribution of launches makes sense. While SpaceX’s rockets (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy) are well proven to be reliable, both ULA and Blue Origin launch with new rockets, Vulcan and New Glenn respectively, that have barely yet left the factory. Vulcan has done only two launches, with the second having technical issues (supposedly resolved). Blue Origin has done only one successful launch, though it failed to land the first stage as planned.

The distribution however serves the needs of both the military and the American rocket industry. It gives the Pentagon redundancy, multiple launch providers. And it gives America the same, three competing rocket companies striving for business and profit.

The result is going to be a very vibrant American space effort, doing a lot of things having nothing to do with the Pentagon.

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ULA and Amazon schedule first Kuiper satellite launch for April 9, 2025

9:49 am

The launch of the first 27 satellites in Amazon’s 3,200-plus satellite Kuiper internet constellation has now been scheduled for April 9, 2025, using ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The Kuiper constellation, intended to compete directly with SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, was first conceived at about the same time as Starlink. Since then — while Amazon moved slowly launching only two test satellites — SpaceX launched thousands and signed up millions of customers, grabbing market share that it will be difficult for Kuiper to re-capture.

The launch will also be the first in 2025 for ULA, which had hoped to do as many as 25 launches this year with its old soon-to-be-retired Atlas-5 and new Vulcan rocket. The six-month delay in getting the Pentagon to finally certify Vulcan for commercial military launches has put a damper on that plan. Right now ULA will be lucky if it can complete half those launches.

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Space Force finally certifies ULA’s new Vulcan rocket for commercial military launches

9:26 pm

After significant delays in developing ULA’s new Vulcan rocket, and then further delays after the rocket’s second test launch (which experienced technical issues), the Space Force today finally announced that it has certified the rocket, thus allowing ULA to proceed with several military launches that have been stalled for months. From ULA’s press release:

In September 2016, ULA entered into an agreement with the U.S. Air Force and outlined the plan to certify Vulcan according to the Air Force’s New Entrant Certification Guide. Over the last few years, the collective ULA and Space Force team have completed 52 certification criteria, including more than 180 discrete tasks, two certification flight demonstrations, 60 payload interface requirement verifications, 18 subsystem design and test reviews, and 114 hardware and software audits.

What was not revealed was the criteria the Space Force used to finally put aside as critical the loss of a nozzle on one of Vulcan’s two side booster’s during the second test launch. While the rocket successfully got its payload into the proper orbit, for a booster to lose a nozzle is not trivial. ULA has recently said it had found the cause and has fixed it, but few details have been revealed. Nor has this new announcement revealed any further details about the fix.

Regardless, this certification is very good news for ULA. Expect it to move as quickly as it can (which will seem slow in comparison to SpaceX) to launch a number of delayed military launches.

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ULA pinpoints reason a nozzle fell off a Vulcan rocket side booster during last launch

9:11 am

During a press briefing earlier this week, ULA’s CEO Tory Bruno noted that a manufacturing defect was the reason a nozzle fell off one of the two solid-fueled strap-on boosters during the second launch of the company’s new Vulcan rocket.

In a March 12 media roundtable, Tory Bruno, president and chief executive of ULA, said the anomaly was traced to a “manufacturing defect” in one of the internal parts of the nozzle, an insulator. Specific details, he said, remained proprietary. “We have isolated the root cause and made appropriate corrective actions,” he said, which were confirmed in a static-fire test of a motor at a Northrop test site in Utah in February. “So we are back continuing to fabricate hardware and, at least initially, screening for what that root cause was.”

The company however still awaits approval by the Pentagon to begin Vulcan commercial military launches. That delay has forced it to shift its first launch in 2025 from Vulcan to an Atlas-5 launch of Amazon’s first set of operational Kuiper satellites. Bruno also revealed during the press briefing that the company has scaled down the number of launches it hopes to complete in 2025 from 20 to 12, with the reduction caused almost entirely by fewer Vulcan launches.

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ULA & Northrop Grumman complete static fire test of Vulcan strap-on booster

9:13 am

As part of its investigation into the loss of a strap-on booster nozzle during the second launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket in October 2024, ULA and Northrop Grumman on February 13, 2025 successfully completed a static fire test of another strap-on booster.

The test was also apparently done in order to convince the Space Force to certify Vulcan for military launches. The Pentagon originally required Vulcan to complete two launches before certification, something that second launch achieved despite the loss of the nozzle. It has held off that certification however, insisting on more information into the nozzle loss.

The investigation has scrambled ULA’s planned launch schedule. The company had hoped after the second certification launch to fly two Space Force commercial launches before the end of 2024. Both launches were pushed back into 2025, so much so that ULA has been forced to de-stack a Vulcan rocket so it can instead do an Atlas-5 launch first, carrying the first set of Amazon’s Kuiper satellites.

Whether the results of this static fire test will satisfy the military is at present unknown. No details about the test were revealed, other than the companies were studying the results.

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ULA swapping Vulcan for Atlas-5 for first 2025 launch

11:18 am

ULA has decided to destack the Vulcan rocket it had planned as its first launch in 2025 (launching a military payload) and is now replacing it with one of its remaining Atlas-5 rockets to put the first batch of satellites for Amazon’s Kuiper internet constellation.

It appears the military is not ready to certify this launch after the second Vulcan launch in October 2024 experienced a problem with one of its strap-on boosters. The payload got to its proper orbit, but the loss of that booster’s nozzle appears to be an issue the military remains concerned about.

Rather than wait, ULA decided to switch to the Kuiper launch. The company wants to complete up to 20 launches in 2025, many of which are for Amazon using its last ten or so Atlas-5 rockets. When it can start commercial launches of Vulcan remains somewhat uncertain. The military has indicated it will make a final decision of certification in the spring, and has also said that first operational flight will follow soon after.

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ULA’s CEO outlines a bright 2025 for its Vulcan rocket

4:18 pm

In an interview for the website Breaking Defense, ULA’s CEO Tory Bruno outlined his optimistic outlook in 2025 for its Vulcan rocket, despite the loss of a nozzle from a strap-on booster during its second test launch.

The important take-aways:

  • He expects the military to certify the rocket “momentarily”, though this could mean one to several months.
  • The company plans 20 launches in 2025, with 16 Vulcans already in storage.
  • Eventually Bruno expects to be launching 20 to 30 times per year.
  • Blue Origin has so far delivered 12 BE-4 engines, of which four have flown.
  • Blue Origin’s production rate is presently one per week.

The last two items are significant. If this production rate is the fastest Blue Origin can do, it will limit the number of Vulcan and New Glenn launches significantly per year. For example, Vulcan uses two engines per launch. To do 20 launches in 2025 will require 40 engines. Blue Origin however wants to also launch its New Glenn a number of times in 2025, and it uses seven BE-4 engines per launch. A production rate of one per week means that Blue Origin will not be producing enough engines for the number of launches planned for both rockets. Either ULA will have to delay its Vulcan launches awaiting engines, or Blue Origin will have to do the same for its New Glenn.

Of course, it is also possible that Blue Origin will be able to up this production rate with time. It has certainly made progress in this area in the past year, since a year ago it was having trouble producing one engine per month.

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The next two Vulcan launches for the Pentagon slip to 2025

9:14 am

Both the Space Force and ULA have now admitted that the next two Vulcan launches, which both had hoped to launch before the end of this year, have now been delayed until 2025, and that Vulcan remains uncertified as yet by the military for its launches.

The United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan will not be able to conduct two planned national security missions on its launch manifest for this year after delays with certifying the heavy-lift rocket. The comments came hours after a Space Force official cast doubt that the missions could be completed before the end of 2024.

ULA launched its second certification flight in October, roughly a month behind schedule, following a first flight in January that was nearly four years behind schedule. The Space Force is still assessing data from the October launch in partnership with ULA.

The military had said if ULA completed two Vulcan successful launches it would approve Vulcan for these launches. Though the second launch got its payload to its correct orbit, during launch the nozzle on one of its strap-on solid-fueled boosters fell off. Though officials keep saying they expect certification anyway, that certification has not happened. It appears right now that the military won’t do so until the investigation into the problem is completed and a fix is installed.

At the moment the only rocket company that can launch large payloads for the Pentagon is SpaceX. Though that company has not gouged the military in bidding (though it it could) this is not a good situation. The military wants options and redundancy, not simply to save money, but to give it flexibility. It needs ULA and Blue Origin to finally deliver their rockets.

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ULA begins stacking Vulcan for military launch, anticipating Pentagon approval

8:56 am

Though the Space Force is still reviewing the nozzle issue on the second flight of ULA’s Vulcan rocket and has not yet certified the rocket for military operational launches, ULA has begun stacking the next Vulcan for an anticipated military launch of a national security satellite.

On Monday [October 21], ULA shared photos of the 109.2-foot-long (33.3 m) booster being hoisted into the Vertical Integration Facility to begin the stacking process. In the days and possibly weeks to come, the 38.5-foot-long (11.7 m) Centaur 5 upper stage will be added along with four solid rocket boosters and the payload fairings.

It appears that the military has accepted Vulcan for this launch because — despite the nozzle falling off of
a strap-on side booster — the rocket was successful in placing its payload in its precise orbit. The Space Force is simply completing the paperwork required for certification.

No date however has been set, but the company hopes to complete two military Vulcan launches in 2024, so it won’t be that far in the future.

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Space Force awards SpaceX big launch contract

10:24 am

Space Force yesterday awarded SpaceX a $733 million contract for what appears to be a total of eight future launches of military and national security payloads.

Few details were released about the payloads, including the launch timeline. The deal was issued as part of the military launch contracting system, which in June named SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers for the next five years.

However, one official’s comment appeared to suggest this contract award was the military’s expression of disgust at the delays at ULA and Blue Origin in getting their rockets launchworthy.

“In this era of Great Power Competition, it is imperative to not leave capability on the ground,” Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, said in an emailed statement on Friday. “The Phase 3 Lane 1 construct allows us to execute launch services more quickly for the more risk-tolerant payloads, putting more capabilities on orbit faster in order to support national security,” Panzenhagen added. [emphasis mine]

In other words, the Space Force wanted to split this contract between the three companies, but it decided to give it all to SpaceX because it expected any launches given to ULA and Blue Origin would not launch on time, and it didn’t want “to leave [that] capability on the ground.”

In the case of ULA, its Vulcan rocket finally made its first two launches this year, four years late, but on the second launch had a failure on one of its solid-fueled strap-on boosters (the nozzle fell off). Though the rocket successfully placed its dummy payload into the correct orbit, the military has either decided that it can’t yet certify Vulcan for military launches, or sees further delays while the investigation and fixes are installed.

As for Blue Origin, its New Glenn rocket is also four years behind schedule, and likely won’t launch until next year. To get it certified will also probably require two launches, and since that company never seems to be in a hurry to do anything (NASA removed its payload from New Glenn’s first launch because the company had failed to meet the required interplanetary launch window), the Pentagon probably decided it can’t give it any contracts at this time.

And so, more launches and profits for SpaceX. While it is great for that company, with revenue that will likely aid in developing Starship/Superheavy, this is not a healthy situation for the American space industry. As a nation we need more than one launch provider. We need these other companies to stop dithering around and get the job done. That’s the true American way. Have they forgotten how to do it?

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ULA recovers nozzle debris that fell off during second Vulcan launch

9:05 am

ULA has recovered some of the debris that fell to earth after the nozzle on one of Vulcan’s two solid-fueled strap-on boosters fell off during the early stages of the rocket’s second launch on October 4, 2024.

Julie Arnold, a ULA spokesperson, confirmed to Ars that the company has retrieved some of the debris. “We recovered some small pieces of the GEM 63XL SRB nozzle that were liberated in the vicinity of the launch pad,” Arnold said. “The team is inspecting the hardware to aid in the investigation.”

The booster was built by Northrop Grumman. Vulcan can use from from two to six on each flight (in pairs), depending on the mass of its payload and the mission requirements. At the moment ULA has 35 of these boosters in storage awaiting future flights. It is expected that once the company has an idea of the root cause of the failure, it will have to inspect each booster to avoid a repeat of the problem.

Though ULA has not announced any changes in its plans to launch twice more before the end of the year, both for the Pentagon, that schedule is now uncertain due to this problem. For example, there as yet is no word on whether the military is willing to certify the launches. It had required ULA to complete two test flights of Vulcan before doing so, and the nozzle issue has cast a cloud on that plan.

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FAA and the Biden administration proves it is out to destroy SpaceX

9:47 am

The FAA to SpaceX
The FAA to SpaceX “Nice company you got here.
Sure would be a shame if something happened to it.”

In the past week the FAA proved unequivocally that it is abusing its regulatory powers for political reasons, imposing much harsher regulatory restrictions on SpaceX while allowing other companies much more free rein.

That reality became most evident first with the FAA response to the serious failure of one of the strap-on solid-fueled boosters during the second test launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket on October 4, 2024. During that launch something went seriously wrong with that booster 38 seconds after launch, involving an explosion and what appeared to be ejection of that booster’s nozzle. Though the launch succeeded in placing its payload into the correct orbit, it required the rocket’s main engines to compensate aggressively.

Despite this, the FAA decided no investigation by it was necessary.

The Federal Aviation Administration, which licenses commercial space launches in the United States, said in a statement that it assessed the booster anomaly and “determined no investigation is warranted at this time.” The FAA is not responsible for regulating launch vehicle anomalies unless they impact public safety.

This decision is correct, but the contrast with the FAA’s treatment of SpaceX is quite striking. If the FAA applied the absurd standard it has been using against SpaceX, it would claim that this Vulcan launch threatened public safety because the incident occurred 38 seconds after launch and was thus relatively close to Florida, where an out of control rocket could potentially threaten public safety.

Such a threat of course really doesn’t exist, as the FAA correctly concluded, because the rocket has a self-destruct system to prevent it from crashing in habitable areas.

Yet the agency failed to use this logic with SpaceX. Instead the FAA decided anything SpaceX launches that doesn’t work perfectly poses a serious public safety threat, no matter where or how it happens, and thus has repeatedly grounded SpaceX launches. A first stage, flown already 23 times, falls over after soft-landing successfully on its drone ship in the middle of the Atlantic, and somehow this justified the FAA grounding SpaceX due to the threat to public safety. A second stage, after successfully placing two astronauts into orbit, misfires during its de-orbit burn but still lands in the middle of the ocean, far from any habitable regions, and somehow this justified the FAA grounding SpaceX due to the threat to public safety.

And the fact that a Superheavy returning to its launchpad at Boca Chica will cause a sonic boom — as do every Falcon 9 landings at Cape Canaveral or Vandenberg — is now justification for grounding Starship/Superheavy test launches, even though sonic booms pose zero threat to anyone other than startling them with the sudden noise.

The FAA further illustrated its bias against SpaceX when it decided to allow the company to do its launch this morning of Europe’s Hera asteroid mission, but specifically stated that the company’s other launches remain grounded.
» Read more

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ULA successfully completes second test launch of its new Vulcan rocket

8:36 am

ULA this morning successfully completed the second test launch of its new Vulcan rocket, lifting off from Cape Canaveral from Florida.

It placed a dummy test payload into orbit in order to obtain from the Space Force certification that will allow the company to begin operational military launches and actually make money from the rocket. ULA hopes to launch two such Vulcan launches before the end of the year, and then hopes to do ten more Vulcan launches in 2025, along with ten Atlas-5 launches as it closes out that rocket’s inventory before retiring it.

UPDATE: An explosion on of Vulcun’s two solid-fueled strap-on boosters during the launch today might prevent a quick certification from the military. Though the rocket successfully put the payload into its correct orbit, it appears the nozzle failed on that booster, throwing it out sideways, fortunately away from the rocket. The video here shows this clearly. I was startled by this explosion during the launch, but then forgot about it (until my readers reminded me) when the payload reached orbit as planned.

The strap-on boosters are manufactured by Northrop Grumman. Before using them again ULA needs to get clarity on this issue. We also must wonder if the FAA will step in as it has for SpaceX to ground ULA. At the moment it has decided not to do so.

This was ULA’s fifth launch in 2024, so there is no change in the 2024 launch race leader board.

95 SpaceX
44 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 112 to 67, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 95 to 84.

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ULA’s big plans for 2025

12:31 pm

As ULA prepares for the second launch of its new Vulcan rocket, presently scheduled for launch tomorrow at 6 am (Eastern), it held a press briefing on October 2, 2024 to provide an update on the rocket’s present and future status.

The key takeaways, assuming this launch succeeds as planned, as noted in a tweet by reporter Jeff Foust from Space News:

  • ULA still plans on completing two national security Vulcan flights before the end of the year
  • It is targeting 20 launches in 2025, half with Vulcan and half with Atlas-5
  • The first Atlas-5 launch of Amazon’s Kuiper satellites won’t happen until 2025
  • When Sierra Space says Dream Chaser is ready, ULA will launch it

Completing three Vulcan launches in the next three months will almost match the four launches the company has so far completed in the first nine months of the year. Furthermore, considering that ULA’s previous record for launches in a single year is 16, set in 2009, and that the company has not completed more than ten launches in a year since 2016, these plans are very ambitious indeed.

If it succeeds however in just getting close to these numbers, ULA will be doing very well indeed.

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Sierra Space in negotiations to buy ULA

10:26 pm

According to the Reuters news agency, Sierra Space is negotiating with the joint owners of ULA, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, to buy the rocket company.

The sources, which are all anonymous, said the sale price is in the range of $2 to $3 billion. Those same sources said no deal has yet been worked out, and might not happen at all.

For Sierra, the deal would give it its own launch vehicle, Vulcan, for placing its Dream Chaser mini-shuttles into orbit. It would also give it a profit stream from the many military and commercial launch contracts already on ULA’s manifest. The combined cababilities of ULA and Sierra will create a formidable new player in the aerospace launch market.

For Boeing, it would provide it some much needed cash that it will be able to use to both restructure and revitalize its presently questionable operations.

It is unclear what Lockheed Martin will gain from the sale, other than the cash and the removal of this Frankenstein-like partnership with Boeing, which in the long run has probably not done it a lot of good.

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ULA losing launch crews to other rocket companies

9:23 am

ULA, which hopes to set a company launch record next year, is right now suffering a major loss of its launch crews to SpaceX and Blue Origin.

This year alone, ULA has lost about 45 of its 105 Launch Operations engineers — the people who test, assemble and prepare every rocket and its cargo to fly — at its primary launch site in Florida, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information. The lack of experienced personnel has postponed work for future missions, the person said.

The article says the loss of these launch crew employees is because of higher pay offered by the other companies, but I suspect a contributing factor is ULA’s low rate of launches in recent years (3 in 2023 and 4 so far in 2024). These people have nothing to do, and see the lack of work as detrimental to their future careers. Better to move on, either to SpaceX where a lot of launches occur, one almost every other day, or to Blue Origin, where the rocket is new and the company has plenty of cash.

The flight of crews could also be because people do not see a future at ULA. For almost a year there have been rumors that Boeing and Lockheed Martin, which own it jointly, want to sell it. It was thought that sale would happen after the first Vulcan rocket launch, but it did not. In recent months those rumors have subsided, suggesting that the interest in buying the company has trailed off.

Despite these problems, ULA’s problems could very well be temporary. Its manifest has a lot of launches scheduled, and once Vulcan is certified for the military and operational for all its customers, it is expected to be launching more than twice a month next year. If those launches take place as planned, these issues will be begin to vanish very quickly.

In fact, it does appear that if you are an engineering student with an interest in rocketry, your future is extremely bright. There will be plenty of work opportunities for you in Florida in the future, from any one these companies.

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SpaceX’s new Raptor-3 methane-fueled engine is so advanced the CEO of ULA doesn’t understand it

12:31 pm

SpaceX's new Raptor-3 engine
Click for original image.

When Elon Musk on August 2, 2024 proudly tweeted a picture of SpaceX’s new Raptor-3 methane-fueled engine, the third iteration of the engine it uses on this Starship/Superheavy rocket, Tori Bruno, the CEO of ULA, looked at the image (to the right) and complained that Musk and SpaceX were touting pictures of a “partially assembled engine.” As Bruno tweeted:

They have done an excellent job making the assembly simpler and more producible. So, there is no need to exaggerate this by showing a partially assembled engine without controllers, fluid management, or TVC systems, then comparing it to fully assembled engines that do.

It turns out that this engine is so advanced that Bruno — the CEO of SpaceX’s best competitor — didn’t understand it. Both Musk and SpaceX’s CEO Gywnne Shotwell immediately responded with images of this same engine operating during hot fire tests. As Shotwell tweeted, “Works pretty good for a ‘partially assembled’ engine :).”

Musk in one of his first tweets describing the engine’s specifications was also right when he described it as “Truly, a work of art.” Look at it. For what is the most powerful rocket engine ever built it looks as streamlined and a simple as the slant-6 car engine I had in my 1969 Plymouth Valient, built long before environmental regulations caused car engines to become incredibly overbuilt and complicated.

This little anecdote illustrates quite starkly how advanced SpaceX is over its competitors. It is now building rocket engines with technology beyond the immediate understanding of the CEO of the United States’ second largest rocket company.

Almost a decade after SpaceX successfully reused a Falcon 9 first stage, and now does it routinely, no other rocket company as yet to do the same, and only one company, Rocket Lab, is doing flight tests in an attempt to eventually do so.

SpaceX has no competition because too many of its competitors are simply not trying to compete. It is both sad and shameful.

Hat tip to reader Rex Ridenoure.

44 comments

ULA squelches independent photography of its launches

10:27 am

For reasons that appear fundamentally stupid, ULA early in July announced that it will now forbid independent freelance photographers who use the remote sites inside the launch facility at Cape Canaveral from selling their pictures independently.

The language was clear: Photographers were welcome to set up remote shots at ULA launches if they worked for the media or wanted to post their work on social media. However, photographers could not sell this work independently, including as prints for fellow enthusiasts or for use in annual calendars.

“ULA will periodically confirm editorial publication for media participating in remote camera placement,” the email stated. “If publication does not occur, or photos are sold outside of editorial purposes, privileges to place remote cameras may be revoked.”

In other words, photographers who come to Cape Canaveral to take pictures will only be allowed to do so it they are working for professional media, or are selling their work to news outlets. Photographers who make a living selling prints to collectors, or simply post them on social media in order to garner traffic, will eventually lose their access to the sites.

The article suggests this policy was instituted because managing the number of photographers had become unwieldy, but that is a pure guess, since ULA has not provided any explanation, nor has it responded to any questions from other press outlets.

From a PR point of view, this decison by ULA makes no sense. All it does is antagonize the public and the press, while reducing its public footprint. In this age of social media, publicity comes not just from major media outlets, but from the independent individuals writing for their own websites or X feeds.

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ULA completes its 4th launch this year and last Atlas-5 launch for the Space Force

9:10 am

Though ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket still has a number of launches on its manifest before it is retired, early this morning the company successfully completed the last Atlas-5 launch for the Space Force, the rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was ULA’s fourth launch in 2024, the most in a year for the company since 2022. The leader board for this year’s launch race remains unchanged:

74 SpaceX
31 China
8 Rocket Lab
8 Russia

American private enterprise however now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 87 to 47, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world combined, including American companies, 74 to 60.

Note: A Rocket Lab that had been scheduled for today has been delayed two days.

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ULA replaces Sierra’s mini-shuttle with dummy payload to launch Vulcan in September

9:28 am

Because of continuing delays in preparing Sierra Space’s Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle for launch, ULA has been forced to remove it from the second launch of Vulcan in order to proceed with the launch in September as planned.

ULA needs to launch Vulcan for the second time and as soon as possible in order to get approval from the Pentagon to do military launches. The delays in getting Tenacity ready for launch has already impacted that schedule, as ULA had originally hoped to launch Vulcan on its second flight — with Tenacity as the payload — several months ago. Further delays beyond September would seriously damage not only ULA’s bottom line, but the military’s own needs. It is all for these reasons that ULA has now set up a new review team to force this schedule forward, likely under pressure from the Pentagon.

Sierra Space meanwhile says that Tenacity is still on track to be ready to launch before the end of the year, but it is unclear what rocket will carry it. ULA will likely offer another Vulcan rocket for the purpose, but to do so it will probably have to delay some other payload, and it is certain it will not do that to any upcoming military launches. Based on the announced launch schedule, it does not look like this launch can occur on a ULA rocket in 2024. ULA says it hopes to launch at least 20 times in 2025, so one of those launches will likely carry Tenacity.

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Space Force names SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers for the next five years

9:14 am

As part of the military’s program for issuing launch contracts, the Space Force yesterday announced that it has chosen SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as its launch providers, allowing them to bid on $5.6 billion worth of planned launched over the next five years.

The NSSL Phase 3 program was structured into two “lanes.” Lane 1 is for less demanding launches to low Earth orbit, while Lane 2 is reserved for heavy lift rockets capable of delivering payloads to nine reference orbits, including some of the most demanding national security missions.

The selection of Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA for Lane 1 contracts confirms that no other launch providers met the criteria. Seven bids were submitted, according to the DoD announcement.

The Space Force apparently rejected the other four unnamed companies because they “are still maturing their launch capabilities.” It will allow them to re-submit applications next year, and could approve others for bidding at that time, which is a major change from past policy. Previously the military would name approved companies, but not reconsider others for years, a policy that limited its options and reduced competition. Now it appears it will be doing so frequently, possibly every year, in order to regularly increase the number of companies that can bid on military contracts.

This change is excellent news for the American launch industry, as it means the Pentagon has finally ended its long standing launch policy that played favorites.

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