Tag: SpaceX

As SpaceX and the Wall Street gear up for the June 12, 2026 initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX stock, there have been a number of articles published in the past week expressing skepticism about it, mostly aimed at trying to predict what will happen in order to advise potential buyers.

Much of this is guesswork, but the people speaking are people who do this for a living, so it might be worthwhile to take a look at what what they have to say. Below are a few examples.

First, the New Yorker published a detailed article questioning the overall $1.75 trillion valuation of SpaceX listed in its IPO. It doubts the reality of the company’s AI division, its plan to launch a constellation of data satellites, and notes that Starlink and the launch divisions don’t make up the difference. Overall, its analysis concludes the valuation is over-rated, and should be approached with caution.

Business Insider also posted an article expressing reservations about the IPO’s unusual requirement that 30% of all shares be reserved for the retail market, made up of small individual buyers.

Here’s how it’s instead been interpreted by the retail-investor commentariat: They’re capitalizing on trader excitement and relying on it to supplement demand from institutions. The heavy allocation is essentially setting up retail to hold the bag after longer-term shareholders take profits.

I myself have had this analysis confirmed by one source, that the major big stock buyers are themselves planning to hold back their purchases for at least the first few months, believing the stock price will be pumped up initially by this flood of small enthusiastic buyers. They will wait for it to drop — as they expect — and then buy, taking their profits then.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal posted two articles with contradictory conclusions:

• Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX’s Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040
• What the ‘Dean of Valuation’ Thinks Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Really Worth [$1.3T]

The first article is very optimistic. The second is less so, approaching the situation more carefully.

For my readers who wish to invest, I strongly suggest you read them all, and consider them all. Investment here might not be as great as you think.

For SpaceX and the future of space exploration however the situation is excellent, whether or not buyers are going to make money on its IPO. The company is certain to bring in more than $75 billion, maybe as much as $86 billion, giving it the capital to do everything it wants in the next few years. It will build Starship. It will send it to both the Moon and Mars. It will have the resources to fuel Elon Musk’s fundamental dream, building a major human civilization throughout the solar system.

In this alone the IPO will be historic, as it lays the groundwork for the human colonization of space. History begins now, and it does so under the aegis of capitalism and freedom.

SpaceX yesterday filed the full prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its planned initial public offering (IPO) of stock, revealing a plan to sell 555.6K shares at $135 per share, resulting in a total cash acquisition of just over $75 billion. Additionally, the company’s earlier investors will have separate options to buy other shares, raising about $11 billion more, for a total of $86 billion in capital raised.

The stock offering would set SpaceX’s value at about $1.77 trillion, and would make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. This would also be the largest IPO in history. The full prospectus at the link above has a lot of details, which this CNN article distills nicely:

SpaceX plans to sell 555.6 million shares at an initial price of $135 a share, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The decision to dictate one price target, as opposed to offering a range, is a unique move that reflects the hot IPO market around the AI craze and Musk’s own tendency for mega-scale goals.

Musk, who currently owns half of SpaceX, would still control nearly half of the company’s total shares after the offering. However, some of those are special shares with greater voting power, and Musk will control 82.4% of the voting power after the IPO, according to the filing.

The date of this IPO, when stocks will go on sale, is presently set for June 12, 2026. The stock will be traded on Nasdaq, under the label SPCX.

In addition to this $86 billion, SpaceX already earns about $12 billion per year from its more than 10 million Starlink subscribers, and has previously raised more then $12 billion from those initial private investors. All told, the company will have more than $110 billion in cash on hand after this IPO. That is more than four times NASA’s annual budget.

As I have said repeatedly in the past two years, SpaceX is the real American space program. NASA is begin carried along by it.

One detail of interest revealed in some viewgraphs that SpaceX is showing to potential investors is its intention to begin launching commercial payloads on Starship before the end of this year. In other words, expect much more frequent flights in the coming months, moving quickly to orbital tests, placing operational version 3 Starlink satellites in orbit as well as testing refueling in orbit involving two week missions and two Starships.