Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

At the council meeting of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) member nations taking place this week in Bremen, Germany, the council approved a major 32% budget increase for the agency over the next three years.

The largest contributions in the history of the European Space Agency, €22.1 bn, have been approved at its Council meeting at Ministerial level in Bremen, Germany.

Ministers and high-level representatives from the 23 Member States, Associate Members and Cooperating States confirmed support for key science, exploration and technology programmes alongside a significant increase in the budget of space applications – Earth observation, navigation and telecommunications. These three elements are also fundamental to the European Resilience from Space initiative, a joint response to critical space needs in security and resilience.

“This is a great success for Europe, and a really important moment for our autonomy and leadership in science and innovation. I’m grateful for the hard work and careful thought that has gone into the delivery of the new subscriptions from the Member States, amounting to a 32% increase, or 17% increase if corrected for inflation, on ESA’s 2022 Ministerial Council,” said ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher.

How ESA will use this money however remains somewhat unclear, based on a reading of the various resolutions released in connection with this announcement. As is typical for ESA, the language of every document is vague, byzantine, and jargon-filled, making it difficult to determine exactly what it plans to do. Overall it appears the agency will continue most of the various projects it has already started, and do them in the same manner it has always done them, taking years if not decades to bring them to fruition (if ever). It also appears the agency will devote a portion of this money to create new “centers” in Norway and Poland, which as far as I can tell are simply designed to provide pork jobs for those nations and ESA.

The resolutions also placed as the agency’s number one goal not space exploration but “protect[ing] our planet and climate” (see this pdf), a focus that seems off the mark at a very base level. While I could find nothing specifically approving the odious space law that attempted to impose European law globally (and has been vigorously opposed by the U.S.), the language in this document suggests the council still heartily wants to approve that law, and if it doesn’t do so in total it will do so incrementally, bit by bit, in the next few years.

The most hopeful item among these resolutions was the €4.4 billion the council reserved for space transportation, with the money to be used to pay for upgrades to both the Ariane-6 and Vega-C rockets and the facilities in French Guiana, as well as expand ESA’s program encouraging the new rocket startups from Germany, Spain, and France. If ESA uses this money wisely — mostly for the latter item — it will do much to create for itself a competitive launch industry, something it presently does not have.

It will take a bit of time to see how these decisions play out. It remains very unclear at this moment if Europe is choosing the Soviet or the capitalism model for its future in space.

It appears that the European Space Agency (ESA) is now recognizing that two of its major partnership deals with NASA are likely going to fall apart, and it has therefore begun putting forth new proposals to repurpose those projects during a meeting in Germany this week of its member states.

The two projects are ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter intended to bring Perseverance’s Mars samples back to Earth, and its service module for NASA’s Orion capsule. In the former case, NASA’s decision to cancel the Mars Sample Return Mission leaves that orbiter in limbo. NASA might still fly a sample return mission, but it will almost certainly not do it as originally planned, involving numerous different components from many different sources in a complex Rube-Goldberg arrangement. ESA is now considering repurposing this orbiter as a research spacecraft studying the Martian atmosphere while also being a Mars communications satellite for other missions.

As for the Orion service module, ESA is now recognizing that it is unlikely NASA will continue funding Orion after it completes its presently scheduled missions, totaling at most four. ESA has contracted to build six service modules, and is now studying options for using the last few in other ways, such as a cargo tug in low Earth orbit.

ESA officials are also reviewing its entire future at the conference, considering how private enterprise has completely outrun it in all ways. Its expendable Ariane-6 rocket is a long term financial bust, being too expensive to compete in the modern launch market of reusable rockets. Its proposed IRIS2 satellite constellation will cost too much and launch far too late to compete with the private constellations already in service or being launched by SpaceX, AST-SpaceMobile, Amazon, and China.

To counter this trends, ESA has already made some major changes, shifting ownership and control of its rockets back to the private companies that build them. However, its bureaucracy has appeared resistant to this change, and is apparently lobbying for more funding and control at this week’s meeting, asking the member nations to increase their funding to the agency, giving it a total budget of 22.2 billion euros. There has also been lobbying by ESA supporters for a new Space Law that would supersede the individual space laws of its member states, and also attempt to impose its regulations on non-member nations, beyond its sovereign authority. That law is strongly opposed by the U.S., the private sector, and even some of ESA’s member nations.

The bottom line however is that the nature of the European Space Agency is undergoing major changes, with its work increasingly shifting to its member nations instead of being part of a cooperative effort. While ESA bureaucrats continue to push to protect and strengthen their turf, ESA’s member nations have been increasingly pushing back, and winning that battle.