SpaceX switches to newer Starship and Superheavy for orbital test
Capitalism in space: According to Elon Musk, SpaceX has decided that the company will no longer use Starship prototype #20 and Superheavy prototype #4 for the rocket’s first orbital test flight.
Instead, the company will fly two more recently built and upgraded prototypes, rumored to be numbers #24 for Starship and #7 for Superheavy. The company has also decided to switch from the first generation Raptor engines to Raptor-2s.
All these changes likely explain Musk’s announcement that the first orbital launch will not happen sooner than May. The changes also further suggest that SpaceX has realized federal permission to launch from Boca Chica will be further delayed, and thus it might has well push forward in other ways as it waits for the right to launch.
I suspect that if the federal government hadn’t moved in to block operations, it would have flown prototypes 20 and 4 two months ago, just to get some data. Now such a flight seems pointless, as more advanced prototypes are now almost ready to fly.
This decision also reinforces my prediction that no orbital flights will occur out of Boca Chica before summer, and are more likely blocked through November. It also increases my expectation that the first orbital flight might not occur at all in Texas. The longer the Biden administration delays SpaceX’s operations there, the greater the chance the entire Starship/Superheavy launch program will shift to Florida.
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Capitalism in space: According to Elon Musk, SpaceX has decided that the company will no longer use Starship prototype #20 and Superheavy prototype #4 for the rocket’s first orbital test flight.
Instead, the company will fly two more recently built and upgraded prototypes, rumored to be numbers #24 for Starship and #7 for Superheavy. The company has also decided to switch from the first generation Raptor engines to Raptor-2s.
All these changes likely explain Musk’s announcement that the first orbital launch will not happen sooner than May. The changes also further suggest that SpaceX has realized federal permission to launch from Boca Chica will be further delayed, and thus it might has well push forward in other ways as it waits for the right to launch.
I suspect that if the federal government hadn’t moved in to block operations, it would have flown prototypes 20 and 4 two months ago, just to get some data. Now such a flight seems pointless, as more advanced prototypes are now almost ready to fly.
This decision also reinforces my prediction that no orbital flights will occur out of Boca Chica before summer, and are more likely blocked through November. It also increases my expectation that the first orbital flight might not occur at all in Texas. The longer the Biden administration delays SpaceX’s operations there, the greater the chance the entire Starship/Superheavy launch program will shift to Florida.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
I suspect that if the federal government hadn’t moved in to block operations, it would have flown prototypes 20 and 4 two months ago, just to get some data. Now such a flight seems pointless, as more advanced prototypes are now almost ready to fly.
If the growing reports (from some reliable regulars on the inside) at NSF’s L2 forum are to be believed, there’s more fundamental reasons, alas, why Booster 4 (B4) is not in a position to launch – not without a heck of work. As the story goes, SpaceX ground crew weren’t sufficiently cautious during one of the cryo tests with B4 and managed to introduce some FOD (foreign object debris) to B4’s CH4 tank that spread throughout all the plumbing, and since SpaceX runs the LN2 through the engine plumbing as well during cryo tests, all of the Raptor engines are also contaminated and basically the whole propellant feed system.
If true, this is why we have seen no engine tests on B4. They couldn’t even if they wanted to, because they’d have to replace all the Raptor 1 engines, and SpaceX isn’t even making Raptor 1’s any longer. Alas, therefore, B4 is only good for cryo tests and testing out the ground equipment (which is not nothing.)
So it looks like they’ve known for a spell that the first orbital launch is going to have to be with a later prototype stack. Probably, B7/SN24, which will be equipped with Raptor 2’s. Elon is promising a test flight in May, but I suspect that even if the FAA delivers a clean bill of health on schedule, it’s gonna be a push for them do it in 2Q (i.e., before July). But I can always hope!
I never thought that B4 was going to fly because of all those SS “storage sheds” they have installed over the aft section external equipment. Those would be ripped off at some point during the assent and make a big mess.
I don’t know if the enclosures were flight risks, but I admit, they were awkward looking…
Anyhow, it looks like B7 has these systems in a very different (and more aerodynamic) layout. The truth is, B7 and SN24 will be pretty substantially different vehicles than B4 and SN20. It’s more than just having Raptor 2’s, or more of them (33 and 9 respectively, versus 29 and 6). They’ll have full autogenous pressurization; substantially redesigned tanks and thrust puck; an improved QD panel; improved TPS system; and lots of other odds and ends they haven’t even talked about publicly.
So in the end, it may be just as well that B7 and SN24 get to be the first ones to the dance. The data they’d get will be more relevant to the operational flight articles.
How very, very different this is to how NASA has developed space vehicles! It hasn’t gone as smoothly or quickly as Elon hoped, but it’s clear they’re making rapid and substantial progress. And learning a lot through iteration.
Tow the booster to Bonneville Salt Flats. Let it go out in style…
Where can we Mine for Dilithium Crystals?
“Where can we Mine for Dilithium Crystals?”
“Dilithium could be found on only a few planets in the galaxy, and was therefore a rare and valuable substance. Notable sources of dilithium included Coridan and Elas in the Federation, as well as Rura Penthe in the Klingon Empire and Remus in the Romulan Star Empire. It could also be found on Troyius, where it was known as radan, and had a variety of different uses, including jewelry.”
https://wiki.fed-space.com/index.php?title=Dilithium