A journalist takes objective look at global warming
For the past week there has been a new spat of articles written about human caused global warming, instigated by an op-ed (subscription required) written by scientist Richard Muller in the New York Times, where he wrote:
Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.
Not surprisingly, the mainstream press has jumped on this op-ed and the public release of new data by Muller’s team as further proof that the debate over global warming is settled and we should all bow to our governmental overlords and agree to any regulations they propose to save the planet.
Not so fast.
Yesterday there was this remarkable article published on the blog page of the journal Nature, in which science writer Jeff Tollefson did something I have not seen done by a mainstream journalist at a mainstream publication in literally years: provide a balanced fair-minded look at the issue, not only noting Muller’s conclusions but also outlining the honest and legitimate questions raised by those scientists who disagree with him.
Tollefson correctly noted these valid points:
- Muller’s data release is not peer-reviewed. He bypassed this process, to the chagrin of some of his reviewers.
- At least one member of Muller’s own team refused to sign the release, questioning its validity.
- Even global warming scientist Benjamin Santer questioned the release. Santer was one of the scientists whose emails in the climategate scandal indicated a willingness on his part to squelch skeptical debate about global warming.
- There are serious issues with the data itself, centered on the location of some temperature gauges.
- Finally, Tollefson recognizes the work of Anthony Watts and others, outlining in detail the problems with the temperature data. Like Muller, Watts’s team has bypassed peer-review to release their results early, but they did so apparently in response to Muller’s release.
While I applaud Tollefson for doing his job properly, I find it depressing that his article is noteworthy for this fact. What Tollefson has done should be the standard, not the exception. That his report is an exception indicates how far modern science journalism has fallen by the politicization of the climate research field.
One final note: Even if Muller’s data is 100% correct, there is nothing in it to justify his claim that the increase in temperature is solely due to human behavior. All his data shows is that the global temperatures has risen. It does not show why. Fossil fuels might be a factor, but for all we know from this data, the increase in temperatures could be the Earth’s final warming as we transition out of the Little Ice Age in the 1600s.
For a scientist to make this unjustified leap is one reason why I and others should remain skeptical of his results.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
This guy was never a skeptic, it is spin:
see:
http://www.populartechnology.net/2012/06/truth-about-richard-muller.html
“For a scientist to make this unjustified leap is one reason why I and others should remain skeptical of his results.”
Muller himself encourages you to hold on to that skepticism, even if he has lost it, and even if he now thinks the IPCC report is understated. In the TImes he says:
“These facts don’t prove causality and they shouldn’t end skepticism, but they raise the bar…”
Was the study peer reviewed? He says almost all of it has been, but he is putting it out now rather than wait for completion. But in the past you have criticized the entire peer review process as largely worthless, or less than trustworthy, so I am not sure what difference it would have made for you anyway. But if we can agree on the validity of the peer review process, I’ll take that. The excuse that Watts also did not wait for peer review because of Muller is rather shallow, then.
Did Judith Curry dissent? Indeed. I was curious if she would have agreed with Muller, but she does not. But that is science…Muller himself once thought like she did, and he changed. Her opinion is valued.
Were the temperature gauges trustworthy? Clearly Watts says no, based on his non-peer reviewed study, but Muller says that he was careful in this regard…he claims that he has used 100% of the stations available rather 20%, and that he separated out good ones from bad ones.
“One final note: Even if Muller’s data is 100% correct, there is nothing in it to justify his claim that the increase in temperature is solely due to human behavior. All his data shows is that the global temperatures has risen. It does not show why.”
Well, thats Ok to have that opinion, and I’m glad to see that you distance yourself from that silly posting below from c3headlines, which said the earth was cooling. Muller has concluded differently, he believes that his leap is entirely justified given where he has come from, and he believes “…to be considered seriously, an alternative explanation must match the data at least as well as carbon dioxide does.”
Maybe that will alternative will come. But I’ll take for now those things we can agree upon: the validity of the peer review process, the fact that the temperature of the earth is rising, and that AGW believers criticize each other if they think shortcuts were taken.
Wondering if anyone has any thoughts about this explanation of a 60 year cycle?
http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/SixtyYearCycle.htm