More evidence the number of COVID-19 deaths is greatly exaggerated
The video report below notes that, according to CDC published data, almost all deaths now listed as COVID-19 deaths were actually caused by other factors.
Specifically, of the approximately 220,000 COVID-19 deaths listed so far, almost 94% were likely not caused exclusively by COVID-19, but by other chronic illnesses. While many of these other maladies, such as a variety of respiratory illnesses, probably worked closely in conjunction with the coronavirus to kill the patient, other illnesses were clearly the real cause of death. For example, the CDC says the 51,000 of today’s 218,000 COVID-19 deaths were caused by heart attacks or heart failure, not COVID-19.
If we subtract these coronary deaths, we are left with about 167,000 COVID-19 deaths. The CDC notes that of these, 88,000 were probably caused not by the coronavirus but by the flu and pneumonia. Hospitals listed them as COVID-19 deaths because the CARES act passed by Congress in the spring gives those hospitals a 20% bonus if they claim the death was COVID-19. This fact might also explain the almost complete lack of flu deaths this year, as listed by hospitals.
Based on this data, it appears that the coronavirus probably caused about 79,000 deaths, on top of the 88,000 flu and pneumonia deaths this year. These Wuhan virus deaths are probably excess deaths this year, but with an average age of 78 the deaths are still occurring almost exclusively among the aged sick, rather than the general population. For everyone else, COVID-19 remains relatively harmless, like the flu.
Interestingly, the CDC recently reported that in 2020 the total number of excess deaths is presently estimated at 300,000. Most significantly, the CDC also stated that
[As of October 3rd], the report notes only 198,081 of those deaths are directly attributed to COVID-19. So over one-third of excess deaths so far this year have not been directly associated with COVID-19.
The Scream by Edvard Munch
These numbers reasonably match with the numbers above. They also suggest strongly that the lock downs and house arrests and mask mandates might very well be causing many other unnecessary excess deaths, such as from suicides. The lock downs have also caused many unneeded deaths because patients did not get treatment for other illnesses when they should, either because hospitals were not allowed to provide them service (because of government edict) or because the patients were afraid to go to the hospital.
All told, the data continues to suggest that the panic over COVID-19 did more harm than good, especially because the early data, in March, was consistent with what we know now. Even then the data said the virus would be dangerous only to the elderly sick, but harmless to the young and healthy, just like the flu. Had our political and academic class been interested in that data, instead of the failed models they love to bow to, they would have allowed society to largely go on with life as normal, while instituting measures specifically aimed at protecting the elderly sick.
Instead, they did the exact opposite, and the evidence now tells us that those failed policies of panic killed many more people, for absolutely no reason.
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This particular piece of misinformation has been repeatedly and widely debunked. There is no credible public health official, infectious disease specialist or epidemiologist that believes this to be true. Twitter removed the tweet that originally started this lie, which was posted by a QAnon follower.
Although there are several easily discovered sources that repeatedly debunk this, the following is just one:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/debunking-the-false-claim-that-covid-death-counts-are-inflated
The only places that this lie continues to circulate is on right wing conspiracy theory sites, like OAN…and apparently Behind The Black.
Can you provide another source besides Scientific American? I stopped reading it years ago when it stopped being a Scientific magazine and went pure left wing political. Very sad.
So Bernard, people have already started dying from the flu this year.
Are you going to demand lockdowns and economic suicide for the flu?
Bernard,
You wrote: “This particular piece of misinformation has been repeatedly and widely debunked.”
O.M.G.! This “misinformation” comes from the very experts that you were asking me to provide for you. Yet now that Robert has provided this information, it becomes “misinformation” in your own mind, solely because it does not fit how you feel the world should be.
Real experts presented you with real data, yet you really rejected it, despite it being exactly what you had requested.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/us-sets-new-record-of-covid-19-cases-in-one-day/#comment-1091995
Are you embarrassed yet?
Bernard (Bernie), do you rely on “Experts” in media and polling to tell you who will be winning the presidential election also?
Bernard…………….MAGA
I want to relate a story I heard from a woman on a call in talk show who escaped from Socialist Brazil and who now happily lives in America. I think that her story and the point that she illustrated for me is applicable in most all of these conversations about politics and government and specifically the Democrat party and their stated agenda.
And the point that she brought out was, the Socialist government of Brazil helped destroy all private employment in the country. And the only place to find work to feed yourself and your family to exist?
THE GOVERNMENT.
That is the ultimate government social control mechanism. Other than just having a gun or the threat of a gun being pointed at your head.
And that is really what the Democrats in America are focused on in the end. They are to control who and when and where the people will work and will exist. And if you refuse to be controlled or employed by the government? Even Bernard can figure that out.
And this panel also brings out another government controlled motivation in the spirit of the Socialist model. The government can really only do two things, create incentive and disincentive, usually done through tax policy. What you want to grow you incentivize, and what you want to be diminished you dis incentivize.
The hospitals plainly understand that it is in their financial interests to over report Covid cases and Covid deaths. PERIOD.
So understanding that the numbers without doubt are inflated. And you do not have to be an expert to understand that.
1201AlarmSameType,
It is a trivial thing to find multiple sources for this. Posting multiple links subjects a comment to moderation. You can easily find just about every public health official and medical organization that has addressed this lie as it has become pervasive. If you believe Scientific American to be leftist propaganda, then you will likely not find a source with which you agree. Here is one from Reuters, though it includes various statements from the Mortality Statistics Branch at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, the medical director of the Stanford CROWN Clinic for COVID-19, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and others:
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-94-percent-covid-among-caus/fact-check-94-of-individuals-with-additional-causes-of-death-still-had-covid-19-idUSKBN25U2IO
Rick,
As you well know, this virus is not analogous to influenza. In addition to a much lower incidence of severe illness there is an effective vaccine for influenza that is quite effective at preventing and decreasing the severity of illness from that virus. But you know all this and simply wanted to make an absurd point.
Edward,
This particularly pervasive lie was certainly not put forward by the CDC. This was started by an obviously intentional misinterpretation of mortality data that was released by the CDC. The CDC and multiple other public health officials have debunked this and clarified that this is false. There is no public health official that believes this to be true. I would direct you to the link above, but I doubt that providing a link that details a statement from the CDC that debunks this lie interests you much.
Cotour,
No. I do trust them to conduct polls, which are inherently flawed.
You know, I think I haven’t given Trump enough credit. Through his vast incompetence, corruption, and cruelty he is going to hand us a government with solid Democratic control. By doing this, he truly will be making America great again.
And I did see your prior comment on a different thread. Pretty silly for you to think that Senator Sanders would spend any time here. I am certainly not a notable figure. But I don’t mind if you call me ‘Bernie’,
“Twitter removed the tweet”
That… kinda *increases* its credibility.
What an embarrassment if the people of America would empower someone like a Joe Biden and elevate him to the office of the president.
And I do not care who he is running against. Just despising Trump is no justification. Especially with credible allegations, with multiple layers of evidence, of pay for play and a total security risk as it relates to the #1 enemy of America, the Chinese. And he has been doing it for at least 30 years, one step removed through his agents, his brothers and his son. All of which is actively being censored by the Democrat hand maidens, the Main Stream Media.
Report from the real world:
One of my customers who is a hard core Democrat, I have spoken about her before, who despises Trump, who I knew was conflicted about the Trump V Biden contest has come to her decision. And she only shared it with me, she will not tell any of her insane Democrat leftist friends what she did. She voted for Trump. And it was very difficult for her.
I asked her: “What are you going to tell your Leftist Democrat girlfriends about what you did, who you voted for, when they ask?”.
Her: “I will just lie”.
How did she come to terms with what she decided to do? She told me she was leaving her work and stopped for a light and looked over and saw a sign in the grass that read simply:
‘”PRAY FOR OUR COUNTRY”
No political affiliation indicated. That is how simple it became for her, she understands that the Democrats and their party have lost their way, and their minds. And that in the real world is just how simple it is and was for her.
We wait.
A Boboulinski bonus: https://youtu.be/Wuul_R-vwhI
Nothing to see here, just move on.
I want to note something about these articles that supposedly make hash of this 6% figure. All of them (as well as Bernard) repeatedly push the strawman argument that anyone who raises that 6% figure is therefore claiming that 94% of all COVID-19 cases are not really COVID-19 cases.
This is of course blatantly false. In raising this CDC data the goal is to point out two fundamental facts:
1. It is likely that there is some inflation of the total COVID-19 numbers. In too many cases the CDC admits that hospitals and doctors have assigned COVID-19 as the cause of death, when in past years, before there was a bonus for COVID-19 deaths, the cause of those deaths would have been assigned to other issues, such as heart failure or pneumonia. This is the main point of the video above that I embedded.
2. And even if we assume that there is no exaggeration of COVID-19 deaths, this 94% number proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that COVID-19 is unable to kill almost anyone, if they are healthy. The virus only kills if the patient already has serious other health problems, is old, and thus can no longer resist it very much. For the healthy and young, getting COVID-19 is a non-issue. It will not kill them, just like the flu.
This in fact has always been my main point when I raise this number. COVID-19 is a variation of the flu, more dangerous to older sick people but less dangerous to everyone else. We need to stop quaking in fear over it so that we can finally start responding to it rationally.
Because right now rationality has nothing to do with the response of our government health officials and governors, nationwide.
Bernard
The “fact checkers” on this are based on the notion that “if that is what the death certificate says, then it must be true, and cannot be questioned”.
Another source.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-delays-explanation-20201024-jb2qc2plcvedzi6hg2e4rq2bke-story.html
The point of the article I post here is, the death certificates may not be accurate.
“Jay Wolfson, a professor of public health and health law at the University of South Florida in Tampa, said inconsistency has now become inevitable. “We have learned that the coding and reporting isn’t uniform not only between counties but between individual hospitals.””
Science is only as good as the data it gathers.
So if Death Certs were rushed, or not properly recorded, then the data is wrong, and the conclusions are skewed.
This does not mean that the numbers are higher or lower per se, but it does mean the accuracy is in serious question, and provides a larger margin of error.
On an amusing note, FL democrats are blasting the fact that this is even being questions. Much like climate science, “how DARE you have skepticism. ”
I also found this amusing:
““Dr. Nelson said long hospital stays may be behind some of the overlooked coronavirus deaths.. Because coronavirus patients are living longer, physicians lose track of the fact that what got the patient in the hospital and started the ball rolling was a Covid infection,” Dr. Nelson said. “They are saying the elderly person died from pneumonia or diabetes.”
So you see, the person lived so long, the doctor (you know, the professional in charge of their care) just plain forgot it was supposed to be a COVID death.
In the article you posted, in the section where they discuss co-morbidity, this exact issue was mentioned. If the primary cause of death was disease A, even tho the patient had diseases B and C, the cause of death should be listed as disease A. This Dr Nelson appears arguing the opposite, in a effort to drive up the number of COVID deaths, stating that the person came in for COVID (disease B or C in my example), and to disregard the actual cause of death. (Disease A). The person lived long enough that it was something else that caused death, and COVID merely a contributing factor.
Bernard,
You are making assumptions. I used to read Scientific American cover to cover since high school. My Engineering discipline came from an article in SA. I hold the Scientific Method above all politics. If SA started to support something like “intelligent design”, I would have dropped it for that too. SA no longer follows the Scientific Method. Reuters? Really? How about a link to a virology paper with data included? And since peer review is broken how about a second paper that confirmed the first? If you are not skeptical, you are not thinking.
Mr Z, you raise an excellent point, but this is typical one side in these discussions.
-If you do not accept the panic inducing numbers, you are a denier.
-If you were not in favor of every single policy and utterance of Barack Obama, you were a evil racist.
-If you do not accept Al Gore’s Man-Made Global Warming, then you want the air and water poisoned.
-If you think that labor unions need balanced and desire “right to work” statutes then you want of child labor.
-If you have different views on when exactly human life begins, then you are want all women enslaved.
-If you think that the nuclear family is the best option for raising children, then you are trashing single moms.
-If you think free market capitalism is the best way to create wealth and improve life for everyone, you are a fascist.
-If you think differently, you are wrong, ignorant, uneducated, backward, hick, redneck, stupid.
At one time or another, I have been accused of every one of these things.
I can go on with more examples. The fact is I have been maligned for so long for the simple act of disagreeing that it no longer phases me. I expect it, and am rarely disappointed. So when someone comes in screeching “you are anti-science” I know what they are.
Everything they claim the right will do is nothingbut them projecting their own thoughts and actions onto the right. Just ask yourself who lost their minds on Election and Inaugration Day? It will be worse when Trump gets re-elcted.
Great news! People dying of old age has decreased by 90% in the past few months!
Robert,
You keep pushing this false narrative that those that die from COVID were practically dead before they became infected. The 94% of patients that had a comorbid condition in that report may have simply had something like isolated high blood pressure. A person in their 50’s with well controlled hypertension but who is otherwise healthy can generally expect to live another 20 years. Of course many of those patients were of advanced age and with significant chronic health issues, but it is certainly not true that all patients that die from COVID were a few days from dropping dead before they were infected. Many of these patients had well controlled chronic health conditions and lost decades of life to COVID.
1201AlarmSameType,
As I said, I doubt that there is a source on this that you would trust given your statements. Alt-right and conspiracy theory websites are not going to be a good source for the truth on this.
Bernard: A fact: the average age of death from anyone with COVID-19: 78. Which by the way is also the average age of death for all Americans.
Bernard–
I would put forth the proposition you don’t know diddly about ‘the alt-right,’ or ‘conspiracies.’ Just sayin’.
The New Right: Journey to the Fringe of American Politics
Michael Malice at the Rubin Report May 2019
https://youtu.be/mNYGhsf5G1k
58:54
Bernard’s funny.
eddie-
stuff = outstanding!
Seems to me, especially from the absolutes of “no credible…” persons believe statements, that Bernard may suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect. There are always credible people who question or believe differently in unsettled or not fully known matters of studying such as a dynamically changing disease experience.
of study
Bernard,
Typical. I tell you I trust the Scientific Method and real data, and you try to win the argument by painting me with a political brush. I follow Robert for his great historical books on space and his fight for the Scientific Method. No one here has ever expressed any Alt Right views. Please tell me you are not a scientist or engineer. You would need to get your money back.
1201AlarmSameType,
Every public health official, medical organization, infectious disease specialist, and the CDC themselves have debunked this falsehood. All of them. If you persist in not believing any of them then there is obviously no source on the matter that will satisfy your particular approach to the scientific method.
Robert,
While it is true that the older population has borne the brunt of the mortality in this pandemic, younger people have not been completely spared:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
“The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years.§§ However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25–44 years (26.5%) (Figure 2). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged <25 years were 2.0% below average,¶¶ and among adults aged 45–64, 65–74 years, 75–84, and ≥85 years were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively."
There has been significant excess mortality among younger people as well this year. Your narrative has been and continues to be that only people already on their death bed die from this illness. That is simply not true.
But that is why you and others continue to push the falsehood that COVID deaths are being over-reported and why the misinformation that is the subject of this thread continues to circulate.
“the CDC says”
“the CDC recently reported”
I’m not doubting your claims, but please provide a direct citation to the CDC for each of those claims.
For example, when I say “the CDC reports” I actually link to the CDC to keep naysayers at bay and give credit where it’s due:
http://unsolicited.elementfx.com/blog/?p=3474
Thanks.
Keeping things in perspective:
** About 7500 people die every day in the USA from circumstances unrelated to Wuhan Flu
** Since March, that equates to 1,800,000 deaths nationwide
** Total reported USA Covid deaths 230,000 (actual Covid deaths prob much lower)
** In spite of mask mandates, social distancing, and shelter in place, reported Covid deaths in USA seem unaffected
** Daily Covid deaths in Sweden, where none of the above restrictions have been imposed, is close to zero.
** USA Covid deaths divided by USA population= 99.999% survival rate
** Is this a political or a medical epidemic?
Bernard: The numbers you cite here confirm my position. In the entire country only 841 people under the age of 25 have died with COVID-19 since January. That’s a tiny number, and I am willing to bet the bulk of these deaths occurred because the patients had some other serious health issues.
The fact remains: This disease is not the plague it has been made out to be. It generally only kills the elderly sick. In rare cases it also kills the sick in other age groups, but the risk is far less.
Most important, this pattern is exactly the same for the flu and pneumonia, and has been such for eons. We don’t panic each flu season, even though the risks are similar. We should not be panicking now for COVID-19.
Bernard, if this virus is so much worse than the flu, why do so many people find out that they have it from a random test?
Every time that I have had the flu, I definitely was SICK.
More and more doctors are saying that the PCR test is too sensitive, giving positive results from people with such low viral loads that they would never be sick much less contagious.
The test was meant to be part of the process, to go along with symptoms, to indicate required treatment.
The left has turned it into the end all scare tactic, that’s why you keep hearing total case count from day 1.
For instance, 269,000 cases in NC, who cares?
We have less than 1200 people in hospitals for any number of reasons, that just happen to have some number of virus particles in their body.
Out of 10.5 million residents. That’s a lot of zeros after the decimal point.
I will ask in this thread what I have in others. Please cite an expert in public health, epidemiology, or infectious disease that agrees with the denialist stance on the pandemic. The only evidence that you can provide consists of misinterpretations of data, cherry-picked data, and frank misinformation.
Robert, the death toll among the very young is undeniably small. The story does begin to change once you include the rest of the population, even excluding the elderly.
For people aged 25-74, the total death toll sits at 90,148, which represents 8.8% of all deaths in that age group this year. If we tighten the age range further to ages 25-64, the total death tolls is 44,197 or 7.8% of all deaths in that age group this year.
(https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm)
I do not consider those number to be trivial. Is it akin to the bubonic plague? Of course not. It is serious enough to warrant some kind of action other than ‘let er rip’? Absolutely.
The problem is that you and others here refuse to believe the basic facts about the pandemic. You reject the expert interpretations of the data and present instead misinformation and lies. Your comment “I am willing to bet the bulk of these deaths occurred because the patients had some other serious health issues.” summarizes nicely that situation. You have no evidence to back up that statement, but you and the others here strongly believe it to be true.
The numbers above will be attacked as false here, despite being agreed upon by every public health figure involved. You and the others here reject expert opinion, medical facts and occasionally basic reality in order to defend your false position
This winter is going to be difficult. Hospitals and healthcare systems may get overrun – we are seeing the start of that now in parts of Utah and Texas. The system is unlikely to collapse, but if things keep going as they are now it will be seriously strained. The death toll will continue to rise and by all accounts will likely nearly double before the end of winter. This is not like influenza. It is much worse. Whether you choose to believe that reality or not is irrelevant, but spreading this kind of misinformation is dangerous to public health.
Bernard
Ages 25 to 75… that is 2/3rd of the population.
So of course that number is large.
If your going to tighten the group, stop as 55. (ages 25 to 54 = 17163 deaths. or 6.6% total deaths of that age group)
All we are proving here is the younger you are, the less is your risk of a fatal outcome. It’s a curve. This, we all knew.
Early on they said the higher risk category starts at 50, so you are already including older high risk people in your VERY large sample if you include 55- 64.
From YOUR same link, the higher number of deaths is over in the category of “Deaths from pneumonia with OR without covid, excl flu”. It is higher than the “Deaths Involving COVID” (Note: “Involving” does not mean COVID killed them, but that is how you are counting them here. COVID could be listed as comorbidity, and not necessarily underlying cause).
https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia
If you narrow the chart here to the US only for consistency, the number of people dying just from pneumonia is on the rise. The last year charted was 2017, and it almost 94,000 a year and RISING. If you extrapolate the rise, we should be at approx 100,000 in 2020 (if COVID had not happened), just from pneumonia alone.
We know that COVID affects the lungs, just as pneumonia does.
Older people have additional issues. This is not news. But this demonstrates that the combination of pneumonia and COVD is quite deadly for older people, since it more than doubles the estimated annual deaths.
This proves Mr Z’s statement “I am willing to bet the bulk of these deaths occurred because the patients had some other serious health issues”.
But I would propose that all those death certificates that List COVID as the underlying (or primary) cause of death, and pneumonia as a co-morbidity should be looked at and re-examined. Which disease really killed them.
Yes yes, I read your links before, and as I posted elsewhere, that is the conclusion based on the data points. (The data points are the death certs.) If the death certs are suspect, then the conclusion may be wrong, or there should at least be a very large margin of error.
Bernard.
Evidence that deaths are not going up.
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths
Running 7 day avg is less than 800. It has been below 1000 since late August.
So when a certain Presidential Candidate said that they are dying 1000 a day, he was wrong. He used a one day high.
I believe you also used this talking point in a different thread.
“The death toll will continue to rise and by all accounts will likely nearly double before the end of winter.”
By ALL accounts? Really?
Even NPR disagreed a few days ago.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates
“To find out, Horwitz and her colleagues looked at more than 5,000 hospitalizations in the NYU Langone Health system between March and August. They adjusted for factors including age and other diseases, such as diabetes, to rule out the possibility that the numbers had dropped only because younger, healthier people were getting diagnosed. They found that death rates dropped for all groups, even older patients by 18 percentage points on average.”
If the death rates are dropping it not going to double.
Even if the rate rises to 1000 deaths a day, it will still not “double by the end of Winter” (I went with March 30th).
But as it is right now, it’s not going up.
Also, the treatments are shortening the time needed for hospitalization. The implication there is that shorter or fewer hospitalizations means that even with more positive diagnosis, there should be less strain on the health care facilities. We will have to wait and see on that.
Bernard – we deal in data and proven theorem not opinion.
When an “authority” says something we ask for data. This is especially true when these authorities are trying to limit our rights.
The opinion of my doctor with me MAY be ok in that one-on-one relationship. In a situation where a State Health Administrator or other “authority” is telling me what to do, or limiting my God-given rights, I say no. You need to give me open, verifiable data and a true crisis before I will consider any such violation of my rights. I will also want a complete plan of how these rights will be reinstated and when.
Bernard,
You wrote: “This particularly pervasive lie was certainly not put forward by the CDC. This was started by an obviously intentional misinterpretation of mortality data that was released by the CDC.”
This is why you are unable to interpret or understand data. You are unable to understand what is before you, so in your ignorance you depend upon others to tell you what to think and what to do. You reject everything your closed mind is unwilling to ponder. You also fail to understand who is trustworthy and who is not, and that is your downfall. You are unable to judge your benefactors’s motives or intentions, and they depend heavily on this ignorance.
Jonathan Gruber said it best when he said that the Democrats relied upon the stupidity of the American voter to pass Obamacare. Since the Republicans were not falling for it, Gruber meant the stupidity of the Democrat voter. Democrats tend to rely upon others for their sustenance, knowledge, and actions, not thinking for themselves. You fit that bill, too.
This is why you constantly lose your arguments. You cannot persuade us, because we know better, and we cannot persuade you because you do not, and due to your closed mind, you depend only upon your pre-selected benefactors for you knowledge.
“I will ask in this thread what I have in others. Please cite an expert in public health, epidemiology, or infectious disease that agrees with the denialist stance on the pandemic. The only evidence that you can provide consists of misinterpretations of data, cherry-picked data, and frank misinformation.”
This reply of mine to your question has dropped off BtB’s page 1, so you may have missed it:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/us-sets-new-record-of-covid-19-cases-in-one-day/#comment-1092323
“The problem is that you and others here refuse to believe the basic facts about the pandemic. You reject the expert interpretations of the data and present instead misinformation and lies.”
Actually, we do believe the experts, but we believe what they said before this flu became politicized. They had been saying it for decades, but only changed their tune when the politicians got involved. Politics is not science, but it can influence the funding for the science, and that can affect the science itself, even to the point of Lysenkoism.
“You have no evidence to back up that statement, but you and the others here strongly believe it to be true.”
Once again, your logic is flawed. How do you turn a bet (and uncertainty) into a strong belief? This is yet another reason why you keep being so terribly wrong. You understand nothing, especially what you are reading here on BtB. Then you draw conclusions based upon your own misunderstanding. That is hardly scientific.
“The numbers above will be attacked as false here, despite being agreed upon by every public health figure involved.”
You assume that the numbers that you present disprove our position (they do not) or that we have never considered them before. The truth is that they reinforce our position. But you didn’t realize that.
“It is serious enough to warrant some kind of action other than ‘let er rip’? Absolutely.”
But not serious enough to warrant the actions that are being taken in the U.S. The current actions have only led to increased deaths and additional waves of outbreaks. The actions taken in Sweden did not. The Swedish reaction was one correct reaction, especially for a region that was too infected for contact tracing to work, which is another correct action that had worked very well for a few countries that got ahead of their outbreaks. Instead, Bernard, the experts that you rely upon denounced travel bans, directed people to go to their local Chinatowns, and sent Wuhan-ailing patients into nursing homes. At that time, they even begged us — begged us — to not wear masks.
These days, your favored experts tell us different things.
Bourbon,
OK. You reject the data, as I said people here would.
Chris,
Where in my comment above, or any other comment I have made, did I endorse the idea of violating your rights? I have not been pushing the narrative that repeat lockdowns are needed. I have not been pushing the idea that business restrictions need to be implemented or broadened. I am only trying to get people to see the truth about what is happening with this virus. I don’t know what the solution to the problem is, but the first step in sorting that out is admitting that there is a problem. The people here are not willing to accept the science and even admit there is a problem. The discussion about the correct way to address the problem is difficult, but we can’t even get to that point with all the ant-science propaganda.
In the end my arguments are really meant for the regulars here. They attack any source that does not conform to their viewpoint, reject expert opinion, and misinterpret data to ‘prove’ their stance. My arguments are for anyone who happens on this place looking for information on COVID – those people should know the truth about what is happening and the lies and misinformation should not go unchallenged.
Bernard,
You wrote: “I am only trying to get people to see the truth about what is happening with this virus. I don’t know what the solution to the problem is, but the first step in sorting that out is admitting that there is a problem.”
No you’re not. As for not knowing the solution, you have advocated listening to “the experts,” who keep advocating solutions that we have shown to be more harmful than helpful. Yet you have argued that what we have argued is wrong, solely on the basis that it differs from the experts. We are fully aware that you are ignorant about any solutions to any of the problems, those you think we are unaware of as well as those that we have informed you of. Yet when we present our own solutions to all the problems you complain that we do not listen to the experts.
The experts have been proved to be wrong.
“The people here are not willing to accept the science and even admit there is a problem.”
Well, now you are lying. We have described a multitude of problems, but you reject all of them, because they differ from the only problem that you feel like considering. One of the problems is that the experts are only considering the Wuhan Plague From Hell and not considering the terrible side effects of the solutions they have imposed upon us. When we point out the results of these side effects you just complain that we have ignored the only problem that you consider to be important.
As for accepting the science, we are the only ones presenting any science. You only present opinion. You have presented some data, but your comments on that date demonstrate that you fail to understand the data you presented. You describe everything that you disagree with as anti-science, but we are the ones that have presented and understand the science. Unlike you, we know what science is. Indeed, the lies have come from you, because you have no idea what is going on, in addition to not having any idea as to solutions. We regulars here have been studying this for the entire year, reading science papers dating back decades, but you think that listening to what the experts are saying today is the correct thing to do.
But your experts have failed to present you with solutions. You are the one who rejects the empirical evidence that we have presented to you for solutions.
Bernard,
None of the regulars here reject data .What we reject is the fear mongering in the media driven by numbers. When this started, they were broadcasting the raw numbers, which aren’t really relevant. X number of people died per day from Y…..when the numbers were shifted by an economic policy rewarding the health system for recording deaths by COVID. What is relevant is the average death rate for all causes per day……COVID, with the exception of the nursing home deaths brought by terrible public policy barely shifted the needle. The morgues being unable to handle the death toll in NYC? Well, the morgue can’t handle the daily death toll in NYC anyway, so any uptick is going to cause problems. Why do you think trailer companies had the extra reefer trailers to rant to morgues? They’re used to having to do so.
If you look at data, not numbers, and wait for the data to be screened and sorted, there’s no need to panic. (which is why the media constantly pushes numbers and ignores data)
Bernard: thank you so much for your postings on this subject. Your comments on this and other postings by Mr. Zimmerman on Covid-19 largely match what I hear from a healthcare professional in my family who is right there on the frontline treating those sickened by this disease.
Hope you’ll keep the good fight.
Bernard – What Edward said.
(And, as always better than I usually say it.)
David. – see comments to Bernard from Edward and others.
Read the book – How Doctors Think – Jerome Groopman MD.
Also, please note the point made here over and over:
We deal in data – not opinion. When you point to a “healthcare professional in our family who is right there on the front line” that’s a single opinion. That person may be knowledgeable and experienced …etc. But it is a single opinion – not accurate data and a proven or indicated conclusion.
Bernard,
It’s quite clear that your primary objective is not to correct misinformation about Covid but rather to promote your political agenda. You’re likely thrilled about the pandemic in that you see it as damaging to President Trump and also an opportunity to show conservatives how much smarter (and morally superior) you are. You’d never admit it, but deep down, you’re happy that lots of Americans have died, and not just because you see it as helping your political tribe. After all, don’t Americans deserve punishment for America’s original sins? Isn’t America a systemically racist, misogynist, homophobic, xenophobic society?
Recent data shows that death rates for people sick enough to be hospitalized with Covid have plummeted around the world. The vast majority of people who get infected recover. We know who is vulnerable and who is not. Protect old folks and sick folks, open the schools and businesses. That, however, would be less advantageous to your political tribe than keeping people in general terrified of the virus.
So in your calculus, what’s an acceptable number of dead Americans, to you, if that figure would guarantee Trump’s defeat next week?
Bourbon,
“OK. You reject the data, as I said people here would.”
If there is evidence that the data points are in question (and their is), then the data should be questioned.
I did not reject it, but instead, suggests it needs to be re-examined.
Mr Z nailed it tho, you are all or nothing.
I am questioning.
One of these two stances is acceptable in science.
Chris – thank you for your thoughts. I do read everyone’s comments without hesitation when I actually read the comments section.
Regarding my comment about my family member, I guess I should’ve written that clearer. That it’s not just their opinion, but a combination of their observations of treatment and their constant review and analysis of the rapidly changing research and statistical data being developed on this disease. Some of what they are explaining to me matches up with a some of the points Bernard has tried to make on the various writings of Mr. Zimmerman. Some matches up with points Mr. Zimmerman puts forth.
Pandemics are not in my wheelhouse, so like us all I’m trying to learn what I can and sort through the flood of information.
As always, I wish you and everyone here good health in this trying time.
David,
Hey thanks. Trying to tell the truth around here gets a little lonely. This site is the same kind of denialist echo chamber that can be found all over the internet at this point. Misrepresentation and misinterpretation of data, outright lies and personal attacks against anyone who disagrees with their talking points. I will give Zimmerman props for actually letting people express a contrary position – generally consenting voices are quickly silenced to maintain the veneer of truth to the lies.
It’s impossible to keep up with all of the fabrications that are posted here. I usually try to pick a topic every once in a while and try to interject some truth. You can see how that usually goes. But hopefully if someone stumbles on this place in search of knowledge some of my comments will redirect them to sources that are more reliable.
Edward,
I followed your link, which linked to you linking yourself linking yourself in kind of a nonsensical diatribe roundabout. If you have a point, please try and be a little more succinct. I do not have time to try and make sense of a manifesto.
Johann,
Your statement that I am pleased with the deaths of nearly 1.2 million people worldwide is beyond despicable. I would argue that statement goes well beyond the ‘name-calling’ that Zimmerman so despises, but doubt that anything will come of it. I will not further dignify your comment with a response.
Bernard: I’ve told you before, please don’t double post if your comment doesn’t appear immediately. My spam filter sometimes dumps things improperly in the trash or spam folder. I get to them when I can.
Also, accusing you of not caring about the many who have died because they couldn’t get health care for chronic health issues not involving COVID-19 is not name-calling. It is calling you on your position, as you really have appeared to be only focused on stopping COVID-19 (an impossible task regardless), even if it means the cure will be worse than the disease. I am sure this is not true, but it is the impression you leave.
Also, your tendency to be insulting is illustrated by this quote in the comment above:
If you are going to accuse me or anyone of fabricating facts, you had better immediately back that accusation up. Otherwise, it is simply slander and character assassination.
Ah, one mans “Truth” is another mans misinformation.
As it has been clearly demonstrated here on BTB that, TRUTH, is a matter of perspective and interpretation.
Bernard,
You wrote: “In the end my arguments are really meant for the regulars here. They attack any source that does not conform to their viewpoint, reject expert opinion, and misinterpret data to ‘prove’ their stance.”
Actually, we don’t attack the sources that you present, we have pointed out that they do not present the evidence that you claim that they do. We are attacking your ignorance of the topic. Your sources are still sources, but they are not facts or science, just opinions. Opinions can be influenced by a number of things, such as science, biases, self-interest, or politics. Decades of science pointed one way, up until the Wuhan Plague became political, then the opinions pointed a different way after that politicization, so most of us here at BtB believe the pre-Wuhan science rather than the post-Wuhan opinions.
“My arguments are for anyone who happens on this place looking for information on COVID – those people should know the truth about what is happening and the lies and misinformation should not go unchallenged.”
You, Bernard, do not come here for knowledge. You come here to try to spread your own lies and misinformation.
Fortunately, your target audience comes to the right place, because they quickly understand that what you say is wrong, often lies and always misinformation, and it does not go unchallenged, as we continually challenge it. You, on the other hand, have been consistently unable to back up your lies and misinformation. You have failed to successfully challenge what we have been saying. Your best has been to provide opinion, rather than fact, data, or science, and to claim that unspecified experts agree with you. Which experts agree with you, and did they have that same opinion before March?
“Every public health official, medical organization, infectious disease specialist, and the CDC themselves have debunked this falsehood. All of them.”
Except that you are unable to find a single one to link to in order to support your point. Your problem is that the data speaks for itself. The actual CDC data shows that not all the deaths that have been attributed to Wuhan Plague were caused by it. The distinction is important. In your ignorance, you argue to the contrary.
Meanwhile, each time you comment, you prove Mike’s position that you project your own actions onto the rest of us.
You also prove Wayne’s point that you don’t know diddly and Robert Pratt’s point that you are suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect. You don’t understand the experts that you rely upon; they are misinforming you.
You cannot win your argument, Bernard. The horrific reaction to the Wuhan Flu has caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Americans, and no one knows how many have died worldwide, or how many will die in the near future, all because your experts are wrong. The World Trade Organization fears that a hundred million children will starve because of the devastated distribution systems and the reduced charity due to the damaged economy. These are truths that you have not been willing to tell your target audience. There deaths are not something that seem to concern you at all.
You say that you don’t know the solution, but in your ignorance you are willing to deny the solutions offered here. You defend experts who have brought more death and destruction than the flu ever could have done. Your position is one that defends a monster that has devoured our lives, our livelihoods, and our liberty. That is the truth about what is happening.
“I do not have time to try and make sense of a manifesto.”
You don’t have the time, or you don’t have the sense?
I can almost guarantee that headlines that are being pumped by the media like this:
CBS: “Covid cases continue to rise in 25 states, setting new infection records”, is misinformation or tweeked information in the efforts to tag trump with them as we grind towards the last days of this presidential election.
Are the cases rising in general as a function of the “Second wave”? Or are there generally just more and more tests being given?
I spoke with a doctor this evening, she works in the belly of the beast in NYC, she checked the Covid list this morning and told me there were 5 cases in the hospital.
I trust none of them, especially at this particular moment in time.
The actual truth is a rare animal in this jungle.
It is sad how US schools no longer teach the difference between opinion and fact.
I have also found they have forgotten to teach how to do real research on a subject.
I really started to notice the problem 15 years ago or more.
People who supported the Global Warming cause would link to 5 different opinion articles that all referenced the same three disproved research papers. For 10 years or more those same three papers were referenced in EVERY single GW article.
Now instead of real science and evidence they just claim its settled science and their is no more research that needs to be done to prove or disprove it. All scientists and governments finally agree its real so dissension is heretical.
The Covid panic is starting to go the very same way.
Bernard–
This link, is for you…..
The Universe in a Mirror:
The Saga of The Hubble Space Telescope and the Visionaries Who Built It
Robert Zimmerman
WGBH Forum June 30, 2008
https://youtu.be/5mNJAf83YTs
1:24:20
(Not Mr. Z’s favorite presentation, but one that is easily found.)
For all those who think face diapers work:
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/
The last 8 years will be a slow methodical transition from a once normal world to a dystopian nightmare before it is cleansed:
https://sumofthyword.com/2016/10/04/the-rapture-of-the-church-is-after-the-tribulation/
Historically, the CDC does not have a very good track record when it comes to telling the truth about so-called pandemics. The 2009 swine flu H1 N1 so-called called pandemic is evidence of that. Going back a little further- in 1976 there was another example of CDC corruption and lying.
https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/02/the-swine-flu-epidemic-that-was-not-as-cdc-advertised-podcast/
https://youtu.be/wIFnmuiW7I8
Robert:
From Johann’s post:
“You’d never admit it, but deep down, you’re happy that lots of Americans have died, and not just because you see it as helping your political tribe. After all, don’t Americans deserve punishment for America’s original sins? Isn’t America a systemically racist, misogynist, homophobic, xenophobic society?”
Exactly what in that statement could you possibly ever interpret as not caring “about the many who have died because they couldn’t get health care for chronic health issues not involving COVID-19”? It is pretty clear what he meant – that I take joy in the deaths of thousands because it politically hurts conservatives and that for some reason I believe that they deserved to die. This is an indefensible statement and clearly does not conform to your requirements of adult, civil discourse. You deride me for “slander and character assassination” but express nothing but support for this kind of statement? It is beyond hypocritical for you to ignore the clear intent of this statement simply because the poster is a fan of yours.
And with regard to accusing you of posting fabrications, I presented my argument that the entire premise of this thread is a fabrication as well as a clear rebuttal of your position that only people who are already essentially dead succumb to this virus. Do not accuse me of not backing up my claims when I have done so. Just because you choose not to believe the data and sources that I presented does not make me guilty of making baseless accusations.
Bernard: No, you did not prove anything posted on this site is a “fabrication.” You illustrated some data that might disagree with the real data I posted, demonstrating quite clearly what I certainly recognize as the uncertainty of what we know about this epidemic. That uncertainty is why I have no problem with people who disagree me from commenting on Behind the Black.
However, that some real data contradicts your narrow view of the world is not a “fabrication.” To call it that is what I said it was, a slander and a lie.
If you can’t recognize the difference, your time here will be very short. I am very much ready to ban you (though I would be interested in what my other readers think). You seem incapable of discussing any issue without accusing others of evil, simply because they don’t buy your arguments or data.
As for Johann’s post, I must repeat, your complete unwillingness to recognize the terrible cost of the lockdowns and the bad policy of many Democratic Party governors, leading to thousands of unnecessary deaths, makes his statement a reasonable one. In order to counter him, you need to address those facts. That you never do, but simply accuse others of “lying,” of “fabricating facts,” and of having an inability of seeing “your truth,” makes your arguments most unconvincing. It also makes everyone wonder about your real motives.
Please note: Except for you, the discussion here among everyone is quite civil. People respond badly to slander and insults. You routinely do that. You should not be surprised if you thus get slandered and insulted in turn.
I don’t like any of this. I could ban Johann, but in the end I would have to ban almost anyone who posts a comment who disagrees with you, because inevitably your insulting manner to them causes them to respond in kind.
Get your act fixed. Show some respect for others. Ask yourself repeatedly, “Is it possibly I might be wrong?” Do that, and you will find yourself pausing before posting something that is an insult or slander to those who disagree with you. You will recognize, they may have a point.
If you don’t, you will be gone. I don’t need the kind of ugly smears you like to spread. Neither does my website.
“I could ban Johann, but in the end I would have to ban almost anyone who posts a comment who disagrees with you, because inevitably your insulting manner to them causes them to respond in kind.”
Exactly what did I say to Johann to force him, apparently against his will, to accuse me of being subhuman garbage that gets pleasure out of the suffering and deaths of others? I don’t recall ever having a prior interaction with Johann, but perhaps you could refresh my memory. My only response was to point out the disgusting nature of the comment and then refused to dignify it with a further response. Which, given the situation, is a very civil response.
You very well know that his comment was not about Democratic policy and the efficacy of the lockdowns. His comment was a personal attack that accused me of taking pleasure in human suffering and death. If that doesn’t warrant at least moderation I don’t know what would.
Ban me if you wish. Obviously it is your prerogative to silence dissenting opinions.
Bernard wrote: “Ban me if you wish. Obviously it is your prerogative to silence dissenting opinions.”
There you go again, implying evil when there is none. I have made it very clear, repeatedly, that I have no problem with dissenting opinions. (You are still here, I must note.) What I also made clear was that I will ban you if you cannot control your tendency to be insulting and to imply evil of others.
Obviously, you still don’t get it. Maybe a week’s ban will make you rethink. Give you time to consider the manner in which you treat others.
You will be welcome to comment here again and express dissenting opinions, come November 6th. Until then find somewhere else to comment.
From the real world:
Just this afternoon a customer told me that she and her husband were thinking of selling their house and moving because local members of ANTIFA who her husband has had on going local political / social media confrontations with which have escalated into legal action against them are using various city agencies / departments and frivolous reports of violations to harass them. Fits their MO perfectly, aggression once removed.
(This is one reason that I do not participate at all on social media, especially the likes of Facebook. It can only escalate in intensity and develop into a dark shouting match instead of communicating and resolving anything. PS: I get along with both sides, I know them all. And truth be told I like them all. Some a bit better than others, but I generally like and get along with them all.)
Face to face, up close and personal these young, sensitive, always offended, 30 something, “Politically correct”, millennial, “men” would crap their pants. And where does this all stem from? A fundamental lack of understanding and respect IMO.
Bernard sounds like he would get along with them just fine.
Robert,
You wrote: “If you can’t recognize the difference, your time here will be very short. I am very much ready to ban you (though I would be interested in what my other readers think).”
In my not-so-humble opinion, in his ignorance he cannot recognize the difference. What are they teaching in school, these days? I think that we are thick skinned enough to cope with Bernard’s disagreeable demeanor, lies, and even his slander. It is kind of fun to argue with him, as he clearly does not understand what we are saying. It lets us get away with so much that we couldn’t say to another person. As Eddie willers pointed out: “Bernard’s funny.“.
I do not think that he has yet written anything that violates your rules, so until he crosses that line, my opinion is to let him continue.
Edward: Well, he will have to sit for a week. I can’t have someone coming on this site and accusing me of “fabricating” lies. For my readers, I agree, you can take it, but I have to think about the webpage. As they say, a lie will circle the globe before the truth has even gotten out of bed. Such slanders can do me real harm. I cannot look the other way.
Mr Z.
He WANTS to be banned.
I figured that out weeks ago.
He has been baiting you to do it.
That way he can play the victim card.
Mr. Zimmerman, for goodness sake, please don’t ban Bernard. I think you are over reacting for whatever reasons. If you are going to be fair, than to ban Bernard would mean banning others. And I appreciate Bernard’s thoughts and am envious of his ability to respond to multiple people offering multiple points (something that would require me to peck away for hours on end).
The comments section on your writings that delve into politics tend to be an echo chamber. Bernard and others who differ provide a needed breath of fresh air.
My two cents…
David: I honestly do not wish to ban Bernard, which is why I only suspended him this time. However, unlike you, who disagrees with me strongly but always discusses the issues with respect and decency, Bernard goes out of his way to cross the line. As sippin_bourbon mentions above, Bernard wants to be banned. He has been trying to bait me so that he can play the victim card.
And what you also do not know is the comment he tried to post since I suspended him. Trust me, he has no interest in a civilized debate, only hate and slander. And I will not have slander on my website, especially against myself. Too often the left has used it to smear decent people so that they become ostracized and “canceled.”
You might wish to read my essay, Obama’s Legacy of Hate. I will not have done to me what people like Bernard have done to the Proud Boys.
Given that the CDC uses numbers gathered using the sinus swab antibody test, which has been known for more than six months to give 90%+ false positives, and recently walked back their claims, admitting that instead of almost three hundred thousand deaths the figure is well under ten thousand, I don’t know how or why anyone anywhere continues to adhere to the older figure the CDC has already admitted was a lie. Oh, wait, yes. Yes, I do.
What’s going on here is that the CDC is still angry and still thirsting for revenge for when the Clintons politicized their agency 25 years ago, ordering them to treat the Second Amendment as a “public health emergency,” and Newt Gingrich shut them down and cut their funding. Ever since they’ve been yearning for revenge for that humiliation, by which I mean, more money and more statutory power over the lives of the hoi polloi. And with the Wubonic Plague–a disease that is approximately equal in severity to the common cold, harmless to anyone who doesn’t already have one foot in the grave and one on a banana peel–they’ve found their perfect instrument, the perfect tool to give them political cover for their outrageous demands and even more outrageous plans. If the Chinese Flu didn’t exist they’d have had to invent it. And it’s not entirely impossible that they did just that.
nomen nescio:
Given that the CDC uses numbers gathered using the sinus swab antibody test,
There is no such test, sinus swab tests are used to test for the virus RNA, antibody tests use blood samples to test for the antibodies the body produces to fight the virus.
which has been known for more than six months to give 90%+ false positives,
There are no tests being used, either RNA or antibody tests, that give such high false positive rates.
the CDC has already admitted was a lie.
The lie was by those making false claims about what the CDC actually said.
As for the rest of your comment, as soon as someone starts applying ideology to distort science you know they’re talking nonsense.
I happen to believe that covid 19 deaths are exxaderated. I heard that hospitals get a bonus for every death they count as covid 19. I actually have a friend who works in the hospital and said deaths from other illnesses is down significantly especially since may 2019.
I find this common thread very refreshing and enlightening I appreciate all the different opinions and facts that are being displayed he gives me hope that I’m not the only one who feels like this pandemic is highly fabricated.
I I feel since I’m commenting in layman’s term because I am just a simple person who works from home nowadays I am a care provider so I understand protocols and universal precautions I’ve worked through the H1N1 pandemic and other flu pandemics as well and understand the importance of universal precautions and distancing and protecting you and the person you’re serving when they are sick.
I think the most troublesome thing about this current pandemic is the insufficient evidence of it being the do-all end-all of all pandemics the way the media makes it sound if you watch the news everyday which I don’t. Coronavirus is the end of the world they only focus on the cases they don’t focus on the reality of it that it seems like it’s here to stay they don’t focus on keeping your immune system strong preventative measures they only focus on hiding yourself wearing the mask slow the spread it’s not slowing it’s here to stay it’s time to stop living in fear of it that’s how I feel that’s only my personal opinion and given the non-substantial evidence of the actual counts of the coronavirus and the actual real deaths of coronavirus alone I’m not convinced I feel like this is highly political and a money game and it’s very disturbing