Blue Origin’s CEO wants to build more suborbital New Shepard spacecraft
Capitalism in space: Bob Smith, Blue Origin’s CEO, declared yesterday that the company has more space tourist customers than it can fly on its single New Shepard suborbital spacecraft, and wants to build more to handle the potential traffic.
Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin flew 14 people to space in 2021, and CEO Bob Smith on Thursday said the firm needs to build more of its New Shepard rockets to meet the demand from the space tourism market. “I think the challenge for Blue at this point is that we’re actually supply limited,” Smith said, speaking at the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference in Washington.
If true, this is good news, for the suborbital tourist market. It means there might be enough business for both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic to survive and make money, at least for a few years.
At the same time, Smith’s focus seems wildly misplaced, since it is the orbital market, not the suborbital space tourism market, where the future lies, as well as the really big money. Putting tourists on short ten minute hops to space might be exciting right now, but very soon it will seem very passe, as more and more orbital tourist flights take place.
I wonder if anyone asked Smith about the status of Blue Origin’s orbital rocket, New Glenn, which remains untested and years behind schedule, all because.the BE-4 engine that will power it is also years behind schedule. It would be nice to know when the first flightworthy engines will be delivered to ULA, as well as installed on New Glenn. Those engines were promised more than a year ago, and are still not a reality.
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Capitalism in space: Bob Smith, Blue Origin’s CEO, declared yesterday that the company has more space tourist customers than it can fly on its single New Shepard suborbital spacecraft, and wants to build more to handle the potential traffic.
Jeff Bezos’ space company Blue Origin flew 14 people to space in 2021, and CEO Bob Smith on Thursday said the firm needs to build more of its New Shepard rockets to meet the demand from the space tourism market. “I think the challenge for Blue at this point is that we’re actually supply limited,” Smith said, speaking at the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Conference in Washington.
If true, this is good news, for the suborbital tourist market. It means there might be enough business for both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic to survive and make money, at least for a few years.
At the same time, Smith’s focus seems wildly misplaced, since it is the orbital market, not the suborbital space tourism market, where the future lies, as well as the really big money. Putting tourists on short ten minute hops to space might be exciting right now, but very soon it will seem very passe, as more and more orbital tourist flights take place.
I wonder if anyone asked Smith about the status of Blue Origin’s orbital rocket, New Glenn, which remains untested and years behind schedule, all because.the BE-4 engine that will power it is also years behind schedule. It would be nice to know when the first flightworthy engines will be delivered to ULA, as well as installed on New Glenn. Those engines were promised more than a year ago, and are still not a reality.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
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Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Maybe one in each state.
To my mind, the people paying for a 10 minute suborbital ride are the same ones who pay to be hauled up to the summit of Everest, It’s all so they can boast “I summitted Everest” or “I’ve been to space”
See Jon Kakauer’s book “Into Thin Air” for a look at the Everest Tourist Industry
“A bank of clouds was assembling on the not-so-distant horizon, but journalist-mountaineer Jon Krakauer, standing on the summit of Mt. Everest, saw nothing that “suggested that a murderous storm was bearing down.” He was wrong. The storm, which claimed five lives and left countless more–including Krakauer’s–in guilt-ridden disarray, would also provide the impetus for Into Thin Air, Krakauer’s epic account of the May 1996 disaster….His account of an ascent of Mount Everest has led to a general reevaluation of climbing and of the commercialization of what was once a romantic, solitary sport”
https://www.amazon.com/Into-Thin-Air-Personal-Disaster/dp/0385494785/ref=asc_df_0385494785/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=205883782554&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12167996299286353393&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9004018&hvtargid=pla-399286515837&psc=1
Wait. So BO has customers lined up waiting for a flight?
And they need to build more rockets to meet that demand?
But they only managed 3 launches since July!
That’s an average 2 months between flights – why does it take that long to turn around a single stage sub-orbital system that spends only a few minutes in space and has minimal thermal loads compared to an orbiting spacecraft?
Brings this Carl Icahn story to mind:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSatPoD2W-o
Mitch S. asked: “why does it take that long to turn around a single stage sub-orbital system that spends only a few minutes in space and has minimal thermal loads compared to an orbiting spacecraft?”
Often it takes time to work out the operations for new system (e.g. the Falcon 9 has increased its cadence over the past decade but has yet to reach 52 per year for a weekly cadence). Blue Origin should be able to pick up the pace as they learn more about their operations, where and how to improve, and how to do it faster, better, and cheaper.
Edward,
Not arguing with your point in general but the timeline still surprises me and the lack of communication makes me wonder.
BO went through some staff departures/bad press after the first flight.
So the delay to the second flight was more than understandable. When they launched the third flight with 6 passengers in December I figured they had gained confidence in the system and the pace would pick up – unless they didn’t really have passengers ready to go.
So now Smith says there are plenty of passengers waiting but offers no insight as to why BO isn’t ready to launch then other than they they “should easily double” the number of flights. Hmm, so it looks like they expect to maintain a one flight every two months average for the next 12 months (at least). Hard to believe that’s the original plan.
Space X can never meet Musk’s optimistic projections but they do pretty much get there in what to reasonable observers is an impressive timeframe. And Musk has maintained confidence by not being shy to discuss some of the challenges that cause delays (such as Raptor 2’s melting combustion chambers).
Suppose (Virgin) Galactic should be encouraged – there is still time to beat BO (SpaceX might be another matter).
Mitch S.,
You noted: “Space X can never meet Musk’s optimistic projections but they do pretty much get there in what to reasonable observers is an impressive timeframe.”
In the aerospace business, a surprising percentage of announced schedule and budget projections are overoptimistic. This is why it is so common that SpaceX impresses observers with its timeframes. (SLS and JWST are examples of impressive in the opposite direction. Most aerospace projects are in-between.)
I doubt that Virgin Galactic will beat New Shepard any time soon, because that company will also have to go through a similar learning curve.
Beating SpaceX is also difficult, but Rocket Lab is rising to the challenge. Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and SpaceX are all changing the way we launch into orbit. I expect more companies to follow their lead.