December 22, 2023 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either. IMPORTANT! If you donate enough to get a book, please email me separately to tell me which book you want and the address to mail it to.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
When Worlds Collide (1951)
https://youtu.be/fLCIs7UpKjM
(6:59)
Which ended with the investor not even getting to ride in his own craft…which actually made me a bit angry…all for the best.
Gliese 710 is on its way in—so we have time :)
And this—is why I hate most businessmen and their lawyers.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60066.0
Robert said in the interview: “Elon Musk, after that mid-November flight, within a week said they should be ready in three to four weeks. I know he sets short timelines, but he also sets timelines that are not unreasonably short.”
This is rather typical of the schedules and timelines that I always worked with. The schedules we worked to assumed that no problems came along as we worked. Working to tight schedules like this tended to help us meet milestone deadlines, because problems often came up and we needed time to solve them. Starting with a tight schedule gave us that extra time. The same seems to happen with SpaceX, except that Musk tends to announce his problem-free timelines to the public, as though he truly believes that the company can meet them.
What we don’t see are many of the problems that come up. Despite a reputation of being open, they really do not tell us very much. They have very small properties, so those who watch what they do are able to see a whole lot more than with other aerospace companies, whose action takes place far from roads and other public venues. A lot of the SpaceX watchers are willing to speculate on what SpaceX is doing and why. “Speculate” may be the wrong word, as many of these people seem to know something about the engineering, so maybe “hypothesize” is a better word, as that means an educated guess.
SpaceX does have an amount of openness. They have publicized their test landings on their autonomous landing ships (called barges, at the time), but another company did not broadcast similar video of their own test landings. SpaceX’s development failures were shown to the public, but other companies were not so eager to show their own failures. At the time, we compared SpaceX’s rocket development with the U.S.’s rocket development six decades earlier. The U.S. broadcast its own tests, and their failures, on live television. The Soviets only announced their successes after the fact, and Soviet failures came out as rumors long afterward.
The timelines that Musk announces are another way of being open, and they seem reasonable, but only if problems do not arise. One difference between operations and development is that most of the problems have been worked out by the time the rocket has been operational for a few launches, and development searches for the problems that have yet to be solved.
Why does Musk announce schedules on development testing? Maybe he feels pressure from SpaceX fans. Announcing seemingly reasonable schedules certainly puts pressure on SpaceX employees to perform.
Edward asked, “Why does Musk announce schedules on development testing?”
I think that in the case of Starship/Superheavy, Musk is announcing these deadlines to apply political pressure on the administrative state and the Biden administration (that is allowing or forcing that administrative state to slow-walk launch approvals). Making it clear that SpaceX is ready fast shifts the blame to the regulators, when launches don’t occur as hoped.
Of course, for this to work Musk needs a journalist class that reports these facts, rather than covering for the administrative state or the Biden administration. Too bad most journalist no longer do their job.