Researchers: Miami COVID-19 infections could be 20x higher than estimated
Researchers at the University of Miami now estimate that the number of COVID-19 infections in Miami-Dade County could be twenty times higher than presently estimated, thus driving down the disease’s fatality rate to no different than the flu.
Scientists from the Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the university’s Miller School of Medicine revealed in a virtual meeting on Friday that a county-wide COVID-19 survey, which followed 1,400 participants over a two-week period, indicated that at least 4.4 percent, and as much as 7.9 percent of the county, could have already contracted the coronavirus.
That is a substantially larger number than the official data set logged by the state of Florida, which on Saturday afternoon had recorded just over 11,000 infections in Miami-Dade County, far and away the most out of any county in the state. Miami-Dade is the most populous county in Florida, with over 2.6 million residents.
The new numbers would also significantly drive down the county’s COVID-19 fatality rate, which with 295 deaths officially stands at around two percent. At the upper bound of the researchers’ new estimates, the death rate would fall to around 0.1 percent, roughly in line with that of the seasonal flu. [emphasis mine]
In other words, what was clearly obvious more than a month ago, the entire Wuhan flu panic was entirely unnecessary. And even if coronavirus returns next year, it still appears it will be comparable to the flu in its impact.
We have never bankrupted our society and nullified the Bill of Rights for past flu seasons, some of which were far worse than this year’s COVID-19 season. But then, we have never had such a bankrupt, idiotic, and brainless intellectual and political class as we do now. The left is driven by hate, hate of whites, hate of America, hate of Trump, while the right is driven by fear, fear of minorities, fear of the press, fear of themselves. None of them have the courage to be intellectually honest, to follow the facts where they go, and to determine their actions based on reality, not emotion, fear, hate, and passion.
Thus, welcome to the Great Wuhan Depression, brought to you by our elected leaders. I hope you have some financial cushion to weather the storm. And whether you do or not, is it not time to fire them all?
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Researchers at the University of Miami now estimate that the number of COVID-19 infections in Miami-Dade County could be twenty times higher than presently estimated, thus driving down the disease’s fatality rate to no different than the flu.
Scientists from the Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Center at the university’s Miller School of Medicine revealed in a virtual meeting on Friday that a county-wide COVID-19 survey, which followed 1,400 participants over a two-week period, indicated that at least 4.4 percent, and as much as 7.9 percent of the county, could have already contracted the coronavirus.
That is a substantially larger number than the official data set logged by the state of Florida, which on Saturday afternoon had recorded just over 11,000 infections in Miami-Dade County, far and away the most out of any county in the state. Miami-Dade is the most populous county in Florida, with over 2.6 million residents.
The new numbers would also significantly drive down the county’s COVID-19 fatality rate, which with 295 deaths officially stands at around two percent. At the upper bound of the researchers’ new estimates, the death rate would fall to around 0.1 percent, roughly in line with that of the seasonal flu. [emphasis mine]
In other words, what was clearly obvious more than a month ago, the entire Wuhan flu panic was entirely unnecessary. And even if coronavirus returns next year, it still appears it will be comparable to the flu in its impact.
We have never bankrupted our society and nullified the Bill of Rights for past flu seasons, some of which were far worse than this year’s COVID-19 season. But then, we have never had such a bankrupt, idiotic, and brainless intellectual and political class as we do now. The left is driven by hate, hate of whites, hate of America, hate of Trump, while the right is driven by fear, fear of minorities, fear of the press, fear of themselves. None of them have the courage to be intellectually honest, to follow the facts where they go, and to determine their actions based on reality, not emotion, fear, hate, and passion.
Thus, welcome to the Great Wuhan Depression, brought to you by our elected leaders. I hope you have some financial cushion to weather the storm. And whether you do or not, is it not time to fire them all?
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Just another antibody testing program in a community with low infection rates.
Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez purchased 10,000 kits to test random cross sections of the population. Florida Power and Light is helping with the process of randomly selecting addresses. Those residents will receive a recorded call from Mayor Gimenez asking if they would like to participate.
http://med.miami.edu/news/sylvester-researchers-collaborate-with-county-to-provide-important-covid-19
Nothing about study validation of the kits or even on the manufacturers claims on false positive rates for these test kits, and, as with the Santa Clara study, a false positive rate typical of antibody test kits could be responsible for the bulk of the positive test results.
You know, I suspect that all of the disagreements and misconceptions about CV are somewhat normal and innocent, and occur in any new pandemic. I am even willing to go as far as saying that the secrecy and misinformation practiced by the Chinese, although dastardly, are hardly unprecedented. We have even been here before with the “we’re-all-gonna-die” predictions that ended up baloney, but all that didn’t keep us from reacting to this one with a sense of urgency.
So this one shouldn’t make us dangerously blasé and vulnerable to just shrugging off another dangerous one, Right? Well, except for one thing… the way the Democrats and the media tried to ramp up panic to destroy the economy as a way to destroy President Trump, and win the next election.
By shamelessly using this pandemic for self-serving political gain, the Democrats and their allies in the media have created a real possibility that warnings about a future pandemic of greater danger will be shrugged off as gamesmanship, leading to catastrophe. Talk about blood on your hands! Keep washing them, Democrats… what you have done may never wash off.
I owe you my promised comparison between predicted and [reported] deaths.
US: (1,209 @ 25Mar2020)
31Mar2020: 3,600 [5,151]
05Apr2020: 11,000 [11,793]
15Apr2020: 105,000 [32,712]
Re the US numbers I wrote, “Let’s hope that the American containment measures will show effect between April 5 and 15 and we can switch to the logistic growth phase.” That did and didn’t occur. It slowed down between April 5–15, but its growth is now linearly, not logistic.
In one of Bob’s earlier postings (March 26), he mentioned seasonal flu deaths. The worst season (2018/19) saw 61,000 deaths. Now the US has over 55,000 C19 deaths and it took only three months to get there. Since new cases are growing linearly, further C19 fatalities will follow accordingly. It’s a matter of days that we reach those 61,000. Then what? How many more deaths until it switches from nothing burger to something burger at least?
Sweden: (105 @ 27Mar2020)
31Mar2020: 300 [180]
05Apr2020: 1,100 [401]
15Apr2020: 15,000 [1,203]
I was reeeally off with that one. The growth rate from the time span when I’ve made the prediction went down shortly after. Since I didn’t update the prediction, the gap became huge. Sweden’s growth of fatalities is still going up and my predictions might come true, I’m just bad with timing.
—
Now to Bob’s posting (and me as the drama queen making alarming statements).
driving down the disease’s fatality rate to no different than the flu.
Assume the fatality rate is the same, but it’s more contagious. Then way more people get infected and thus way more die. It’s also spreading faster than the flu, thus more people get infected faster, being unable to work at the same time, needing medical care at the same time. That reduces the workforce and puts load on the health care system at the same time.
Now to the larger problem. Those with no or mild symptoms seem not to be immune (or not immune for a longer time). The presence of antibodies doesn’t mean immunity. Those antibody tests are (as of now) usually not accurate, they could indicate the past presence of all kinds of coronaviruses. Those with asymptomatic cases show (in varying numbers) [permanent] damages at the lungs, heart, kidney, brain, etc. [bear with me to deliver prevalence data on that] The virus might stay dormant, leading to reactivation (like herpes). Now after the first (survived) infection, you have preexisting conditions. Every new C19 infection reduces your health a bit more. With no vaccine or cure in sight (though mitigating treatments might be available). No herd immunity either.
Now this widespread asymptomatic infection doesn’t look so good anymore, does it?
My, guess on trends on March 27 wasn’t so pessimistic, in fact what’s actually happened has been worse.
The US cumulative cases is likely to reach 200,000 on about the 4th April with daily cases at peaking at perhaps 25,000 – 6 times the Chinese peak.
The total US cases would reach 500,000 – 600,000.
US deaths would peak about 15th April at about 1000/day.
Cumulative US deaths would eventually reach 20,000 just over 2 months from now.
But I did quality that with: I expect the tail in the US to be longer due to US efforts being less coordinated than those in China.
So I was too optimistic.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-is-not-going-to-overwhelm-our-healthcare-system/#comment-1078058
The question, “How many people are or will be infected?” is irrelevant for a disease where most cases are asymptomatic. What we need to know is, if everyone gets infected, how many will die? Nembro, Italy answers that question for us: About one percent, most of them elderly. Could be half a percent in Nordic countries owing to their greater genetic resistance to respiratory illness. That would be one or two million people in the USA.
Isolating the elderly while letting the virus burn through the young sounds like a good idea, but it wipes out the nursing-home population because, well, we know what sort of people work in nursing homes. Instead of overloading hospitals, COVID has emptied them out as people stay away for fear of infection. Besides handing out HCQ/AZT/Zinc blister-packs and oxygen bottles, there isn’t much that hospitals can do for COVID patients; ventilators turned out to be useless.
I’m trying to avoid COVID because it sounds like a very bad flu that can persist for months while causing lasting damage to lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, and brain, and my wife is high-risk. I’m not the only working-age person who feels this way, so even if all politicians decide to end the lock-down tomorrow, once-crowded entertainment venues will take a very long time to recover.
Ian C.,
You wrote: “Now this widespread asymptomatic infection doesn’t look so good anymore, does it?”
Considering that bad things are not happening as a result, it does not look bad at all. Indeed, because bad things are not happening, it looks like your analysis is as accurate as the predicted numbers. And just as useful for setting policy.
Dave wrote: “What we need to know is, if everyone gets infected, how many will die?”
This is how mission creep harms us. What we really need to know is whether the medical system will be overwhelmed. If not, then we should open up the system for the rest of us to get our more routine medical care — before small things turn into life threatening situations.
If making the clinics and hospitals available to the rest of us will save just one life, as de Blasio says, it would be worth it.
Dave–
minor quibbling:
–AZT is Azidothymidine (Trade name: Retrovir) classified as an antiretroviral and used for HIV.
–Azithromycin (Trade Name: Zithromax) is an antibiotic, particularly effective for bronchitis & pneumonia. (and for off Label uses.) –Works very fast –peak blood levels after 1 dose around hour 3, and with a half-life of almost 72 hours. (This is why you only need to take it for 5 days rather than a ‘normal’ [7-10 day] course of antibiotics.)
While I’m at it, I’ll toss this in, for no particular reason except I like the headline:
“Fact-Checking the Media’s Trump/Lysol Lies”
Steven Crowder- Dan Crenshaw Guests
Good Morning MugClub Episode 12, April 24, 2020 (free all month)
https://youtu.be/D0heJh3YD3c
1:25:17
“Did President Trump tell people to drink or inject themselves with “lysol” or did the fake news media? We look at the actual words spoken by the president for the answer! Also, do you think the Cuomo family is the perfect example of celebrity privilege when it comes to COVID-19? On one side, Chris Cuomo pushes for continued lockdowns and bashes protesters who want otherwise, but on the other hand, he himself breaks quarantine while positive for the disease, and his wife pushes fake cures on her blog!
Andrew W, come on man, the Communist Chinese are LYING about their Cases and Deaths, its beyond ridiculous the numbers they are putting out there. Dr Birx and Dr Fauci though diplomatically, have made that very clear. You can’t use China as any kind of a reference, you know better than that.
This virus, delivered to the world so generously, compliments of the Communist Chinese leadership, is a perfect metaphor for the Communist Chinese leadership.
It / they silently work their way into your lives through subterfuge and lies and look to take you over and may in the end kill you.
The Communist Chinese leadership, all strategy all the time, no morality. And to be honest we allowed this situation to get to this degree of unacceptability on our side of the equation. Time to disinfect.
I normally post as Brian here not B-town Fan my mistake.
Ha! Your entire response to this pandemic has been based on emotion, fear, hate, and passion. Following the facts where they go? Let’s try that.
The ONLY flu season that was far worse than Covid-19 was the 1918 Spanish flu, and during that pandemic we mandated many of the same social distancing methods we’re mandating now, including closing down businesses, bars, restaurants, and churches and also mandating the wearing of masks in public.
It’s dismaying how many people form an opinion of an event early on in its lifecycle and then never change their opinion as new facts come in. For example, this notion that Covid-19 is “just the flu.” One prolific commenter on Chicago Boyz insisted that even a year from now, you’ll be able to count the number of Americans who died from this disease on your fingers. Another on Althouse blog estimated the death toll would be 1,500 Americans. Libertarian writer Richard Epstein estimated 500 Americans. Yet even as the actual death toll skyrocketed past their absurdly low estimates, none of them changed his basic opinion that Covid-19 is “just the flu.”
Here is some data for comparison. The flu season begins in the United States on October 1st. In the seven months of this flu season, the flu killed 24,000 Americans. The ten-year average is 38,058 deaths, and that’s with no unusual social distancing mandates whatsoever. Covid-19 has killed over 56,000 Americans in just the last eight weeks, and that’s with nearly the entire country in lockdown. It is continuing to add to that total at a rate of about 2,000 deaths per day.
The first American to die of Covid-19 did so on Feb 29th. The 10th death occurred on Mar 4th. The 500th death was on Mar 22nd. The 1,500th on Mar 26th. On Apr 6th the death toll passed the 2011-2012 flu season total of 12,000. On Apr 9th it passed the 2009 swine flu pandemic toll of 18,449. On Apr 11th it passed the current 2019-2020 flu season total of 24,000. On Apr 16 it passed last year’s 2018-2019 flu season total of 34,200. On Apr 18th the ten-year average total of 38,058. On Apr 23rd it passed the worst flu season in the 30-year span from 1976 to 2007 at 49,000. And on Apr 27th it passed the 2012-2013 flu season total of 56,000.
If you looked at the numbers a few weeks ago and formed your opinion about Covid-19 then, those numbers and your opinion are way out of date now.
If you’re interested, the only normal flu season with a death toll higher than Covid-19 is the 2017-2018 season at 61,000. Covid-19 will almost certainly pass that mark by the end of the week. At that point only the worldwide pandemics of the 1958 Asian flu (69,800 American dead), the 1967 Hong Kong flu (100,000) and the 1918 Spanish flu (675,000) remain. We’ll likely hit 70,000 by the end of May and 100,000 by the end of summer. Hopefully we’ll never catch 675,000.
So it’s already the 4th largest pandemic ever to hit the United States. It will almost certainly be third by the end of May and quite possibly 2nd by the end of the summer. The point of all of this social distancing is to prevent it from taking the crown.
We can argue about which mandates are useful and / or Constitutional, but the argument that Covid-19 is “just the flu” is not borne out by the numbers.
Yes, I incorrectly used “AZT” as an abbreviation for azithromycin, a widely-used antibiotic that also has antiviral properties.
Hospitals are empty not because they fear getting overloaded but because people who frequent hospitals tend to have chronic health problems that make them high-risk for COVID-19. However if you’re having chest pains, slurred speech, partial paralysis, etc. you should probably take the risk and go anyway.
B-town fan/Brian, I used the Chinese numbers to attempt to establish a curve for the progress of the disease in the US, China was the only sizable country that had more-or-less gotten numbers back down to very low levels, finished a wave of it. Whether the Chinese data was useful in that you can judge for yourself.
mkent “We’ll likely hit 70,000 by the end of May and 100,000 by the end of summer.”
I’ve been hoping it would stay below 100,000, I’m now giving that only about a 1 in 20 chance, while a dozen states look to be getting on top of this virus the majority are not.
Andrew W, what do you mean “you can judge for yourself” the Chinese data, is Not Useful that is the point, it’s garbage. It’s coming from the Chinese Communist Party they are Communist, by definition they lie and deceive. I don’t know how more plain to make it.
Anybody about 50 or older can remember back in the day. when the Soviet Union would state something or issue news through Pravda or another source, everybody in our country like 99% of people knew like as if the sun was coming up, everybody knew it was just a fact of life that the Soviet Union was lying, that’s just the way it was. That’s the way we here in the US are going to have to get, with the Communist Chinese.
Over the last 4 months the Communist Chinese have not been honest about this virus to us or the world even a little bit. This should be a huge wake up call to people. I think some are beginning to, but if you, “meaning people in general” haven’t yet, then you need to pay attention, because you are being shook by your shoulders right now, to Wake Up.
You can judge for yourself whether or not the projection for the US that I based on the Chinese data was fairly close or miles away from what has happened.
“the Chinese data, is Not Useful that is the point, it’s garbage.”
It’a as garbage as the US data, the Italian data, data from most of the rest of Europe, the Santa Clara study, the Miami study, all “garbage” if you define “garbage” as faulty or very incomplete so unreliable.
Most of the data is of little value because testing has been so incomplete or the studies were obviously flawed or because people just leap on and promote whatever suits them. There are a few countries with huge testing programs from which useful but still incomplete data is available and a couple of ships from which nearly complete data is available but where the people on board were not representative of the general population in Western countries.
You go on about “It’s coming from the Chinese Communist Party they are Communist”. Yes they are sort of, (though if China were actually communist there wouldn’t be lots of privately owned businesses in China, it would be a paradise controlled by the workers with the wealthy people in subjugation and the subjects of loathing by the proletariat controlled government. The Chinese economy would not be growing as it is because a centrally planned and controlled economy is inefficient. If China were truly a communist nation the economy would, in short, be stuffed and certainly not growing as it has been.
Evidently you believe that the data from China is garbage, not for the same reason that the US data and European data is garbage, but because “Communist!” The interesting thing about those who claim the Chinese data is garbage because “Communist!”, is that they’ll claim that Covid-19 is a nothing burger out of one side of their mouths while simultaneously claiming that there’s a huge “Communist!” cover-up in China and that in “Communist!’ China the virus actually killed zillions of people, that the “Communist!” Chinese were covering up how bad it actually is – but it’s actually not that bad cos 99% of people that get it in the US don’t even know they have it so we really shouldn’t worry about social distancing and other measures to combat its spread. SMH.
Andrew_W–
Come on….. don’t apologize for chinese communists.
If Nancy can not recognize Tara Reade, then Andrew W can apologize for the Chinese.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/27/nancy-pelosi-tara-reade-christine-blasey-ford-brett-kavanaugh-joe-biden/
Same thing, makes perfect sense to me.
Doesn’t even get my blood pumping, there exits a kind of person in this world who allows themselves their own delusional reality because it serves their agenda. Im used to it, and so should you be Wayne.
Cotour–
(I never get used to it!)
I do wonder….if raising the ambient air pressure to 6psi, is an effective viricide?
“I Wake Up Early” (Thinking About the Enemy)
Akira the Don & Jocko Willink
January 2019
https://youtu.be/dytkGtCK2Ks
5:22
Andrew, most of the “privately owned” businesses in China are the property of the PLA…in other words “private” in that the warlords pocket the profits, and the state gets the tech transfers.
The more things change…
I (and many others) claim the Chinese “data” is suspect because the CCP is the new generator of pravda. Their GDP estimates are routinely exaggerated, and the amount they spend on their military is understated by massive amounts. They control their currency, so they spend what they say they do. Their bootlickers in the western media never question anything the PLA publishes.
You know I always love your raising the air pressure to 6 psi, classic Wayne!
Oh, and Im always thinking about the enemy.
Always and every day, they just can not get a rise out of me, they are revealed to me. Their dishonesty and constant need to lie is really no different then the Communist Chinese leadership need to do the same. Its exactly the same.
mkent,
You wrote: “We can argue about which mandates are useful and / or Constitutional, but the argument that Covid-19 is “just the flu” is not borne out by the numbers.”
You used the official numbers of deaths in order to argue that COVID-19 is more than just the flu, but we know that the numbers that you used are inflated and unreliable. Thus, your conclusion is also just as unreliable, and this is one of the problems that results from corrupted or fudged data. Your argument may sound good to you, but those of us who depend upon good data for our jobs know that corrupt data is bogus data. Your argument cannot hold water using the U.S. data.
How many of the deaths that you cite came from New York’s nursing homes? The state required COVID19-positive patients go to nursing homes without adequate measures to prevent contagion to the rest of the residents. While you were doing your part to prevent the rapid spread, New York state was undermining all your heroic sacrifices and raising the number of those reported as dying with Coronavirus. This resulted in even more bogus ammunition for your argument. This flu is worse than it should have been, because the state’s requirements resulted in more contagion, not less.
In addition, the reason for our complete shutdown (not just a few bars and restaurants, but medical care, too) was because this Coronavirus flu was supposed to be far more contagious and deadly than it is turning out to be. The medical system was not overwhelmed but was underwhelmed. Indeed, as we gain more knowledge, the more it looks like just a flu. Just because the numbers are higher than other recent flus does not make it something else — even the Spanish flu, with its much higher number of deaths, was just a flu. It was just a flu that took three years to do most of its damage.
Edward,
“You used the official numbers of deaths in order to argue that COVID-19 is more than just the flu, but we know that the numbers that you used are inflated and unreliable.”
We have excess mortality numbers, allowing us to compare the deaths this year with those last year. They indicate an underestimation of deaths from Covid almost everywhere that such numbers are available, from NYC to Italy, from the UK to Ecuador.
Robert “it’s still just the flu and it always will be” Zimmerman: h
How can a man be a space groupie without understanding arithmetic? In NYC, 0.2% of the population has already died–same for Lombardy. And those two regions are not done dying. No flu has killed anything like that percentage of the population in America or in Europe since 1918.
“Andrew_W–
Come on….. don’t apologize for chinese communists.”
There’s no apology for anyone or any system in my comment. What I’ve done is point out the obvious, China hasn’t been a communist country in anything but name since Deng Xiaoping. The only reason the autocratic regime still calls itself “communist” is because the old proletariat fools that support the regime do so because of an emotional attachment to the word “communism”, much like other old fools outside of China have an emotional aversion to that word, getting all excited at the chance to use an archaic word that to them describes evil incarnate.
Using a false flag in this way has always been a popular trick of autocratic governments, Hitler called himself a Nazi because socialism appealed to the German worker, so they voted for him, Hitler despised socialists, rounding up those that pointed out his deception and shipping them off the the camps. Similarly very undemocratic regimes love to incorporate the word “democracy” into the name of their country just another silly game only fools buy.
To me the regime that compares most closely to the one in China would be Pinochet’s government in Chile. Autocratic with a President for life that relies on the support of the generals who profit from crony capitalism.
If anyone wants to argue that the economic system in China today is based on communist principles please, do so, it’d show a lot more guts than this pathetic labeling of me an apologist for Chinese communism nonsense when such a thing no longer even exists outside of the minds of hoodwinked fools.
@Andrew Claiming the PRC is communist in name only triggers some people, no out of concern that it apologizes for China, but that it apologizes for communism. It’s part of an argument made by supports of communism who claim that there has never been a true communist country — that all the authoritarian states which called themselves communist are not proper counterexamples to the superiority of true communism and are thus not an argument against striving for the creation a true communist nation.
(I’ve always pictured their true communist nation consisting of “true Scotsmen.”)
Craken,
You wrote: “We have excess mortality numbers, allowing us to compare the deaths this year with those last year.”
I’m glad that I don’t fly on the airplanes that you make.
Bogus numbers do not get any less bogus, no matter what you compare them with. Thus, your conclusion to Robert is also invalid. By your own admission, the numbers are excessive.
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Edward,
your analysis is as accurate as the predicted numbers.
My numbers are the result of 2-minutes back-of-the-envelope calculations. They’re pretty good for that, considering that most people have no idea of quantitative consequences of anything. When I made the predictions, C19 deaths in the US were around 1,200. Saying that they might reach 100,000 in a rather short time span (and saying why) is outrageous to many. Now in hindsight my numbers are “obvious.” I added the remark about effects of containment measures for a reason and was pretty spot on with it.
That’s why I don’t work as a prophet. If your predictions are inconvenient, you lose social reputation. If those predictions become somewhat true, someone else with intact reputation will enter the stage and lead the mob. Nobody will say “thanks” or “sorry” to you. All will have convenient lies why “nobody could know” and “we were all surprised.” That is what consultants and professional futurists do when they tell politicians and C-level managers why everything they did was okay and for the blunders they’re totally not responsible.
And just as useful for setting policy.
You’d update those predictions obviously and wouldn’t rely on such simple models (mine was super simple, I just predicted for the early exponential phase). I didn’t update my predictions because I wanted to see how well they age. They did okay for that.
Ian C.,
You wrote: “ I added the remark about effects of containment measures for a reason and was pretty spot on with it.”
Considering that the numbers we are dealing with are bogus, such a conclusion is unwarranted. In addition, you are confusing effect as meaning a certain cause. Lower deaths and lower hospitalizations could be due to the disease not being as bad as originally advertised (e.g. just a flu that targets one demographic hard).
Because the data has been so badly compromised, going from deaths cause by, to deaths with, to deaths suspected, to deaths assumed (the excess deaths are merely assumed to be COVID deaths, not even suspected), all analyses and comparisons for U.S. numbers are completely useless. All that we know at this point is that the numbers can be considered as “no greater than.” We no longer know whether, like China is reporting, there are no longer many deaths due to COVID-19. I think that possibility is very low, but it is there, but we have absolutely no way to determine whether it is so.
This whole thing has become a complete cluster bleep, and much of what we think we are learning from it may be worse than useless in future outbreaks.
Andrew_W–
so, the problem with the Chinese communists, is they are too ‘right-wing.’ (the good-olde-days, under Mao?)
How do you feel about Stalin?
The Chinese government is too right-wing to be accurately described as communist.
How do I feel about Stalin? What sort of dumb question is that? Stalin was an autocratic thug who killed and impoverished millions, the mass impoverishment being in no small part due to the inefficiencies of socialism.
Edward,
In addition, you are confusing effect as meaning a certain cause
I looked at the data (and graphs) from several countries. When they took steps, the growth of new infections slowed down. I’m a strong believer in American Exceptionalism, but not in this case.
Because the data has been so badly compromised
We need to look at the excess mortality and put them into sensible relation to total deaths to have a better picture of the true impact. And we should wait until late May or so.
Andrew_W:
Q:
So, was Mao a communist, or what?
“The Chinese government is too right-wing to be accurately described as communist.”
In other words the Communist Chinese leadership is soooooo far Right they have become Left, Orwellian in fact.
Some people are so half and semi informed that it is almost entertaining. Almost, if it were not so dangerous.
Ian C., wrote: “When they took steps, the growth of new infections slowed down.”
As though there cannot be any other factors involved in the observations, such as the end of flu season.
“We need to look at the excess mortality and put them into sensible relation to total deaths to have a better picture of the true impact. And we should wait until late May or so.”
Late May’s data will not be any less compromised. The analyses will still give bogus results.