Sunspot update: The Sun continues what appears will be a weak maximum
As I have done each month since 2011, I am now posting an annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph, tracking the solar sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. The NOAA updated graph was posted at the start of March, covering activity through the end of February, so this report is a little later than normal.
That graph is below. In February sunspot activity remained essentially steady, only slightly higher than the activity from the month before. Those numbers also hovered at about the same level seen since August 2023.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Overall, the Sun continues to tell us that it wants this solar maximum, predicted to peak in the middle of 2025, to have begun already and be a double-peaked maximum, with the first peak having already occurred in the summer of 2023. When the second peak will occur however the Sun refuses to say. If it occurs before the middle of 2025 it would suggest one of two things. Either this maximum will be an unprecedented triple-peaked maximum, or it will begin and end much earlier than expected, producing a short solar cycle.
If the latter, the Sun will have for the second cycle in a row broke the pattern of the past, where a short cycle meant a very active maximum. The last cycle was short, but its maximum was weak, and double-peaked.
Last month I made the following guess:
If we are now in maximum, sunspot activity throughout the rest of 2024 should fluctuate at the level it is right now, with it suddenly rising again near the end of the year for a period lasting through the first half of 2025. After that it should begin its ramp down to solar minimum.
So far the Sun is making me look good, but it will do what it wants, not what I (or any solar scientist) predict. No one at this moment really understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle. We know that sunspots are caused by activity in the Sun’s magnetic field. We know the cycle is linked to the 11-year process whereby that magnetic field flips its polarity.
Why the Sun does these things, as well as sometimes does other things, remains unclear. We can only wait, watch, record the data, and hope we will eventually gather enough information to solve the mystery.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
As I have done each month since 2011, I am now posting an annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph, tracking the solar sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. The NOAA updated graph was posted at the start of March, covering activity through the end of February, so this report is a little later than normal.
That graph is below. In February sunspot activity remained essentially steady, only slightly higher than the activity from the month before. Those numbers also hovered at about the same level seen since August 2023.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Overall, the Sun continues to tell us that it wants this solar maximum, predicted to peak in the middle of 2025, to have begun already and be a double-peaked maximum, with the first peak having already occurred in the summer of 2023. When the second peak will occur however the Sun refuses to say. If it occurs before the middle of 2025 it would suggest one of two things. Either this maximum will be an unprecedented triple-peaked maximum, or it will begin and end much earlier than expected, producing a short solar cycle.
If the latter, the Sun will have for the second cycle in a row broke the pattern of the past, where a short cycle meant a very active maximum. The last cycle was short, but its maximum was weak, and double-peaked.
Last month I made the following guess:
If we are now in maximum, sunspot activity throughout the rest of 2024 should fluctuate at the level it is right now, with it suddenly rising again near the end of the year for a period lasting through the first half of 2025. After that it should begin its ramp down to solar minimum.
So far the Sun is making me look good, but it will do what it wants, not what I (or any solar scientist) predict. No one at this moment really understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle. We know that sunspots are caused by activity in the Sun’s magnetic field. We know the cycle is linked to the 11-year process whereby that magnetic field flips its polarity.
Why the Sun does these things, as well as sometimes does other things, remains unclear. We can only wait, watch, record the data, and hope we will eventually gather enough information to solve the mystery.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
The activity so far in March should give a really interesting review come April.