Sunspot update: The Sun continues what appears will be a weak maximum
As I have done each month since 2011, I am now posting an annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph, tracking the solar sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. The NOAA updated graph was posted at the start of March, covering activity through the end of February, so this report is a little later than normal.
That graph is below. In February sunspot activity remained essentially steady, only slightly higher than the activity from the month before. Those numbers also hovered at about the same level seen since August 2023.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Overall, the Sun continues to tell us that it wants this solar maximum, predicted to peak in the middle of 2025, to have begun already and be a double-peaked maximum, with the first peak having already occurred in the summer of 2023. When the second peak will occur however the Sun refuses to say. If it occurs before the middle of 2025 it would suggest one of two things. Either this maximum will be an unprecedented triple-peaked maximum, or it will begin and end much earlier than expected, producing a short solar cycle.
If the latter, the Sun will have for the second cycle in a row broke the pattern of the past, where a short cycle meant a very active maximum. The last cycle was short, but its maximum was weak, and double-peaked.
Last month I made the following guess:
If we are now in maximum, sunspot activity throughout the rest of 2024 should fluctuate at the level it is right now, with it suddenly rising again near the end of the year for a period lasting through the first half of 2025. After that it should begin its ramp down to solar minimum.
So far the Sun is making me look good, but it will do what it wants, not what I (or any solar scientist) predict. No one at this moment really understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle. We know that sunspots are caused by activity in the Sun’s magnetic field. We know the cycle is linked to the 11-year process whereby that magnetic field flips its polarity.
Why the Sun does these things, as well as sometimes does other things, remains unclear. We can only wait, watch, record the data, and hope we will eventually gather enough information to solve the mystery.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
As I have done each month since 2011, I am now posting an annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph, tracking the solar sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. The NOAA updated graph was posted at the start of March, covering activity through the end of February, so this report is a little later than normal.
That graph is below. In February sunspot activity remained essentially steady, only slightly higher than the activity from the month before. Those numbers also hovered at about the same level seen since August 2023.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Overall, the Sun continues to tell us that it wants this solar maximum, predicted to peak in the middle of 2025, to have begun already and be a double-peaked maximum, with the first peak having already occurred in the summer of 2023. When the second peak will occur however the Sun refuses to say. If it occurs before the middle of 2025 it would suggest one of two things. Either this maximum will be an unprecedented triple-peaked maximum, or it will begin and end much earlier than expected, producing a short solar cycle.
If the latter, the Sun will have for the second cycle in a row broke the pattern of the past, where a short cycle meant a very active maximum. The last cycle was short, but its maximum was weak, and double-peaked.
Last month I made the following guess:
If we are now in maximum, sunspot activity throughout the rest of 2024 should fluctuate at the level it is right now, with it suddenly rising again near the end of the year for a period lasting through the first half of 2025. After that it should begin its ramp down to solar minimum.
So far the Sun is making me look good, but it will do what it wants, not what I (or any solar scientist) predict. No one at this moment really understands the fundamental processes that cause this sunspot cycle. We know that sunspots are caused by activity in the Sun’s magnetic field. We know the cycle is linked to the 11-year process whereby that magnetic field flips its polarity.
Why the Sun does these things, as well as sometimes does other things, remains unclear. We can only wait, watch, record the data, and hope we will eventually gather enough information to solve the mystery.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The activity so far in March should give a really interesting review come April.