Unmanned test flight of manned Dragon delayed again?
SpaceX has applied for a new launch license from the FAA for its unmanned test flight of its manned Dragion capsule that sets the launch date as no earlier than March 2nd.
This does not necessarily mean the launch is delayed until then. As noted by commenter Kirk Hilliard here at Behind the Black, “their previous license was valid through 1 March, so they may just be covering their bases here while still planning on launching under the authority of their previous license.”
Regardless, I have seen nothing to change my opinion about the cause of these delays: the NASA bureaucracy. SpaceX has been ready to do this launch since December. It has already done two successful launch rehearsals, one in which they did a successful static fire test, as is standard for the company. Both illustrate their readiness. The launch would use their leased launchpad using their launch crew. There has been no indication of any technical reason for the delays, other than a demand that SpaceX complete paperwork for NASA and the government shutdown (which has not prevented other launches from government facilities).
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SpaceX has applied for a new launch license from the FAA for its unmanned test flight of its manned Dragion capsule that sets the launch date as no earlier than March 2nd.
This does not necessarily mean the launch is delayed until then. As noted by commenter Kirk Hilliard here at Behind the Black, “their previous license was valid through 1 March, so they may just be covering their bases here while still planning on launching under the authority of their previous license.”
Regardless, I have seen nothing to change my opinion about the cause of these delays: the NASA bureaucracy. SpaceX has been ready to do this launch since December. It has already done two successful launch rehearsals, one in which they did a successful static fire test, as is standard for the company. Both illustrate their readiness. The launch would use their leased launchpad using their launch crew. There has been no indication of any technical reason for the delays, other than a demand that SpaceX complete paperwork for NASA and the government shutdown (which has not prevented other launches from government facilities).
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
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Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Discussion over at NSF has been predicting this slip into March for several days now. The main driver seems to be that the previous delays pushed the launch to mid/late February, but the ISS schedule at those times is full, so it’s slipping to March for that reason.
I’ve heard conflicting reports on whether SpaceX was truly ready to do this launch or not. It’s pretty clear that there are concrete things they haven’t done yet, but it seems to me that this is just because they’re driving to the external schedule, they know that launch in December or January was not going to happen, so they haven’t rushed to get some of those things done.
On the shutdown, it seems like if this was being treated as a conventional launch, the facilities and range were operational and it could have gone off. But since this isn’t being treated that way and is facing all the various program approval meetings etc, that’s where the delay is. Of course, that raises the question of why this demo flight needs the overwhelming amount of oversight and review it’s getting. The answer is probably equal parts CYA, not invented here, and just administrators that see an opportunity to administrate.
Well … layoffs as Tesla, layoffs at SpaceX … I get the impression Elon is pinching the pennies a bit these days, not necessarily because he’s staring at any real financial problems, but maybe just on general principles. I mean, one of that standard reasons we give for preferring commercial developments in space (and elsewhere) is that entrepreneurs can do things more frugally than outfits working on a “cost-plus” basis.
Rough on would-be and actual employees, let’s concede, but what with a month long partial government shutdown and potential cutbacks in launches of large comm satellites, it makes sense to hedge a bit against uncertainties.
Regardless of the cause of these delays, a month for month or week for week slip in schedule is a bad sign. There is no convergence in sight for the event to occur. The lack of progress and seeming inability to get to a point of progress is unsettling. Whenever such schedule slips lasted this long on projects that I had worked on, higher authorities would begin to look into ways to get things moving again toward completion.
Edward: In this case however the higher authorities in NASA appear quite content with the delays, for political reasons.
Robert,
You wrote: “the higher authorities in NASA appear quite content with the delays, for political reasons.”
I have seen this kind of thing happen on defense contracts, and that is wasteful of money and the talent that could finish the job and get on to other projects. This is bad enough when it is done on a “cost plus” program, as that costs the tax payers a pretty penny, but to do it to a fixed-price contract is terrible. It means that the customer is unreliable, makes new companies wary of bidding on the next project, and makes every company consider bidding higher on future projects for fear that politics will cost them too much money.
I only hope that SpaceX is able to assign the technicians, engineers, and other staff to other projects or to work ahead on the CCDev contract in order to reduce their overall costs.