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February 25, 2025 Quick space links

3:16 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • On this day in 1969, Mariner 6 was launched on a Mars flyby mission
    Like the previous fly-by mission, Mariner 4, and Mariner 6’s parallel mission, Mariner 7 and launched at approximately the same time, Mariner 6 focused on getting images of the dark areas of Mars as seen from Earth, which we now know are the Martian cratered highlands. Thus, all these missions suggested quite incorrectly that Mars was just like the Moon.
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Pushback: North Carolina University quickly backs down when challenged over its remaining DEI policies

2:03 pm

NC State: Maybe rotten to the core
NC State: Rotten to the core?

The tide really is turning: Two weeks ago I reported the effort by Stephen Porter, a professor at North Carolina State University, to force it to eliminate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs (DEI) from its many policies. Porter had been ostracized and demoted by its faculty and staff back in 2021 for daring to question these policies then, but managed to keep his job.

Though the university had claimed in 2023 it had dropped DEI and instead instituted a “institutional neutrality” policy, Porter had no trouble finding DEI requirements and webpages still scattered everywhere in its rulebooks and webpages.

He decided to go to war, to file complaints with the NC Board of Governors about four different violations of its own “institutional neutrality” policy.

To his surprise, less than two weeks later the university responded somewhat positively. First, the university eliminated DEI from its overall strategic plan. That this hadn’t been done earlier either indicates sloppiness and incompetence by NC State’s administration, or a real reluctance to eliminate DEI. Either way, they have finally done so.

Second, they have quickly removed the still standing DEI websites that Porter had cited in his complaint.
» Read more

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon, any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Curiosity looks uphill into canyon

1:10 pm

Panorama taken on February 23, 2025
Click for full resolution. For original images, go here and here.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

The panorama above, reduced and sharpened to post here, was created by me from two photographs taken on February 23, 2025 (here and here) by the left navigation camera on the Curiosity rover on Mars.

The overview map to the right provides the context. The blue dot marks Curiosity’s present position, with the white dotted line its past travels and the red dotted lines its planned route. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by the panorama above.

Several things to note. The boxwork indicated on lower left of the overview map is the rover’s next major geological target. Though the rover team has made no announcement of a major route change, they have clearly diverged from that route by heading south and uphill into this canyon.

In reviewing the interactive map, I have not found any really good route up to the boxwork, other than this canyon. My guess is that the rover team is scouting it out as a possible new route. The panorama above is part of that scouting, and it certainly suggests that the canyon would be a good way to go.

They might also be considering this change because the old route would take them downhill, which would only have them studying geological layers they have already seen up close in Curiosity’s earlier travels. The team might have decided to forego the old route because it would not only look at geology already documented, it would add stress to Curiosity’s already stressed wheels. Since it appears the terrain up hill is going to continue to be this rough for as far as the eye can see, they likely decided it was better to move into unexplored geology now rather than later.

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Australia’s government proposes subsidies to build spaceport in Western Australia

10:28 am

Australian spaceports
Proposed commercial spaceports in Australia

The Labor Party that presently runs Australia has now proposed a $2 million program to “develop a business case” for a spaceport in the generally unpopulated state of Western Australia.

The red arrow and two X’s on the map to the right shows three potential locations. The Eucla and Christmas Island locations have been proposed by a private startup dubbed Space Angel. The Albany location has been proposed by a different startup called WA Australia.

At present, only the Bowen spaceport on Australia’s eastern coast has all its license approvals to do orbital launches, with the first now scheduled for mid-March. Southern Launch however has been a suborbital launch site for decades, and is also where many spacecraft returning from space have landed.

That the present leftist Australian government is considering a program to encourage new spaceports at these other locations instead makes me wonder if there isn’t a bit of political quid-pro-quo going on. Why favor these new locations in Western Australia exclusively? Why not offer this program to all the spaceports? I am especially suspicious of this proposal considering the regulatory burden the Labor government has placed on those other eastern spaceports, delaying approvals for years.

With so many commercial Australia spaceport proposals however suggests the political pressure to ease those regulations might be soon forthcoming.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

New calculations now say asteroid 2024 YR4 will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032

9:49 am

According to an announcement from NASA yesterday, the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in 2032 is now reduced to 0.004%, meaning that it almost certainly not a threat at that time.

There remains a 1.7% chance it will instead impact the Moon in 2032.

These refined calculations were likely achieved by looking not at the asteroid itself (it is now too far away), but at places where it might have been visible to ground-based telescopes in the past, assuming it had an orbit that will hit the Earth in 2032. Since those past observations did not see it, those orbits are thus eliminated, and the threat goes down.

Of course, the uncertainty remains. It also remains important that we obtain more detailed information about this asteroid, because it is still a potential threat to the Earth.

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More changes in NASA’s upper management

9:40 am

NASA yesterday announced more changes in its upper management, almost all related to its manned Artemis program.

NASA announced today that Johnson Space Center Director Vanessa Wyche is now Acting Associate Administrator, succeeding Jim Free who retired over the weekend. Cathy Koerner, who has been leading the mission directorate that manages the Artemis program, will retire this Friday. Her Deputy, Lori Glaze, will take over on an acting basis.

These are not major changes. The new appointees, Wyche and Glaze, have been upper managers for a long time within NASA’s manned management structure that has created the present Artemis program.

These changes are also tentative depending on what Jared Isaacman decides to do once he is confirmed by the Senate as the actual administrator, replacing Janet Petro, who was named last week as the acting administrator. If Isaacman and Trump decide on canceling SLS and restructuring the entire Artemis program, both might also decide it needs an entirely new management staff.

I must also note the lack of any men in this list. NASA’s DEI effort for decades as apparently left no guys in that upper management, or if they are there, it continues to push them aside to support DEI racial and sex quotas, even though it now does not use those terms.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

February 24, 2025 Quick space links

3:07 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

2 comments

Bumpy frozen lava on Mars

2:50 pm

Bumpy frozen lava on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool picture time! The photo to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on September 30, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled simply as a “terrain sample,” it was most likely taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the schedule in order to maintain the camera’s temperature.

The image is fascinating nonetheless, as the landscape is typically alien for Mars. What caused the many random ridges and knobs? Why are there oblong areas that are smooth and have no ridges? And why is there dark material inside that crater that appears to have been blown out to the northeast? If you click on the image to see the full image, not all the craters look this way. One has a similar dark feature, but others are as bland as the entire terrain.

The overview map below only increases these mysteries, even if it does provide some further data.
» Read more

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SpaceX now targeting February 28, 2025 for 8th Starship/Superheavy test orbital flight

1:13 pm

Superheavy captured for the second time
Superheavy captured for the second time,
on January 16, 2025

SpaceX today announced it will attempt the eighth Starship/Superheavy test orbital flight this coming Friday, February 28, 2025, with a launch window beginning at 5 pm (Central). From the company’s website update:

The upcoming flight will target objectives not reached on the previous test, including Starship’s first payload deployment and multiple reentry experiments geared towards returning the upper stage to the launch site for catch. The flight also includes the launch, return, and catch of the Super Heavy booster.

The company also published today a detailed report on its investigation into the loss of Starship soon after stage separation in the 7th test flight.
» Read more

4 comments

Hubble takes a close look at one tiny part of the Veil Nebula

12:47 pm

A small section of the Veil Nebula
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope of just one very tiny section of the supernova remnant known as the Veil Nebula, located about 2,400 light years away.

The white dot on the inset (showing the entire Veil Nebula) marks the area covered by this closeup, focused on the one bright section of nebula in the Veil’s southwest quadrant. From the caption:

This nebula is the remnant of a star roughly 20 times as massive as the Sun that exploded about 10 000 years ago. … This view combines images taken in three different filters by Hubble’s Wide Field Camera 3 instrument, highlighting emission from hydrogen, sulphur and oxygen atoms. This image shows just a small fraction of the Veil Nebula; if you could see the entire nebula without the aid of a telescope, it would be as wide as six full Moons placed side by side.

Astronomers have been using Hubble to take periodic pictures of the Veil Nebular since 1994 in order to track changes as these gaseous gossamer strands evolve over time.

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Close-up of Blue Ghost’s landing zone on the Moon

12:26 pm

Close-up of Blue Ghost's landing zone
Click for original image.

The science team for Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) on February 21, 2025 posted the picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, showing in close-up the March 2, 2025 landing zone for Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander.

The Blue Ghost landing region (image center, 18.56°N, 61.81°E) is heavily cratered due its ancient age (>3 billion years). … The landing region is near a large volcanic cone, Mons Latreille, which formed billions of years ago as part of the massive outpouring of basaltic magma that filled much of the Crisium basin.

Despite the many craters, there are plenty of smooth spots in this landscape. The real challenge for the lander is finding its way to them.

For a map showing this location on the Moon, go here.

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Eutelsat-Oneweb uses its satellite constellations to test technology for phone-to-satellite capabilities

9:17 am

The communications company Eutelsat-Oneweb announced today that it has successfully tested the technology that would allow smartphones to use its satellite constellations as orbiting cell towers in order to eliminate dead zones in their ground-based systems.

Based on the press release, it is unclear whether the tests actually included a cell phone.

The trial used Eutelsat OneWeb satellites, with the MediaTek NR NTN test chipset, and NR NTN test gNB provided by ITRI, implementing the 3GPP Release 17 specifications. Sharp, Rhode & Schwarz provided the antenna array and test equipment and the LEO satellites, built by Airbus, carry transponders, with Ku-band service link, Ka-band feeder link, and adopt the “Earth-moving beams” concept. During the trial, the 5G user terminal successfully connected to the 5G core via the satellite link and exchanged traffic. [emphasis mine]

That user terminal might have been a smart phone, or it could have been an engineering test terminal.

Either way, Eutelsat-Oneweb appears to be aggressively trying to enter the competition for cell-to-satellite business, competing with the systems already operational from Starlink and AST SpaceMobile.

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Thales Alenia completes the habitable module for Lunar Gateway

9:05 am

Lunar Gateway
The Italian company Thales Alenia last week announced it has completed construction and testing of the hull for the habitable module for Lunar Gateway, and is now preparing it for shipment to the U.S. for final outfitting.

HALO’s (Habitation and Logistics Outpost) primary structure is ready to be packaged for shipment to the United States. After successfully completing a series of environmental tests in Thales Alenia Space’s plant of Turin, Italy, HALO’s pressurized structure, built by our company, will be delivered to Gilbert, Arizona, where prime contractor Northrop Grumman will complete its outfitting ahead of launch to lunar orbit with Gateway’s Power and Propulsion Element.

Thales Alenia also builds the hull for Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus capsule, from which HALO was based. HALO is longer however, and has three docking ports for the attachment of Gateway’s other modules.

The press release at the link appears mostly designed to tout Gateway and Thales Alenia’s major contribution to it, which also includes building the airlock for the United Arab Emirates. The company also has European Space Agency contracts to build a lunar lander for delivering cargo to the Moon as well as a habitat for use on the Moon. All of these projects are presently threatened with major changes should the Trump administration decides to cancel SLS, Orion, and Lunar Gateway.

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Rocket startup Interstellar receives another grant from Japan

8:51 am

The Rocket startup Interstellar announced on February 21, 2025 that Japan’s program to encourage commercial space has awarded it a new $9.3 million grant, bringing the total amount the company has received to approximately $53 million.

The SBIR is a 3 phased governmental program aimed to promote the implementation of advanced technologies developed by startups in Japan. Interstellar was selected in September 2023 under the space section focused on the “Development and Demonstration of Private Launch Vehicles” were the company received up to ¥2 billion [$13.3 million] in funding for Phase 1. After passing the review for Phase 2 in September 2024, another maximum of ¥4.6 billion [$30.8 million] were awarded.

In addition, in early January Toyota invested $44 million in this startup.

This story indicates that the Japanese government is finally moving to encourage private commercial space. It had announced this grant program in late 2023, but its bureaucracy had initially seemed reluctant to issue grants. This appears to be finally changing.

Interstellar is in itself an interesting story. Five years ago it appeared to be aggressively building its Zero rocket. It then disappeared. I figured its investment capital had dried up and the company had shut down. It seems it has now been reborn.

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Gilmour announces target date for first launch of its Eris rocket

8:32 am

Australian commercial spaceports
Australia’s commercial spaceports. Click for original map.

The rocket startup Gilmour Space today announced that it is targeting March 15, 2025 for the first orbital test of its Eris rocket, lifting off from its private Bowen spaceport on the east coast of Australia.

The news follows final airspace approvals from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and Airservices Australia, clearing the last regulatory hurdle before launch. It also marks the culmination of years of innovative R&D and manufacturing by the Gold Coast-based company, which developed the Eris launch vehicle and Bowen Orbital Spaceport in North Queensland.

Gilmour Space made history in March last year when its Bowen spaceport was granted the first orbital launch facility licence in Australia, and when it secured the country’s first Australian Launch Permit for Eris TestFlight 1 in November. Now, with airspace arrangements finalised and mandatory notice given to the Australian Space Agency, the company is preparing for liftoff.

Obtaining its permits from Australia’s government has taken years. The company first hoped to launch in 2022, but the red tape stymied that possibility.

If successful however this company’s achievement will be multifold. It will not only beat into orbit numerous other startups in the U.S. and Europe, it will give Australia its own orbital rocket built in Australia. For a country whose government never had much interest in joining the world’s space power — and appeared for the past three years determined to squelch this private company — Gilmour’s achievement will be significant. If anything, its success could force that government to change its ways

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Blue Ghost instrument proves Earth-orbiting GPS-type satellites can be used to track location from the Moon

9:16 pm

Having now reached lunar orbit in preparation for its landing on March 2, 2025, an engineering test instrument on Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander has now proven that even from that distance spacecraft can use the multiple GPS-type satellites in Earth orbit to track their position.

The Lunar GNSS Receiver Experiment (LuGRE) acquired and tracked Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals for the first time in lunar orbit – a new record! This achievement, peaking at 246,000 miles, suggests that Earth-based GNSS constellations can be used for navigation in transit to, around, and potentially on the Moon. It also demonstrates the power of using multiple GNSS constellations together, such as GPS and Galileo, to perform navigation. After lunar landing, LuGRE will operate for 14 days and attempt to break another record – first reception of GNSS signals on the lunar surface.

This test is a very big deal. It tells us that operations on the Moon, at least those on the near side, will likely not require a GPS-type infrastructure in lunar orbit, thus allowing a lot of difficult missions to proceed sooner while saving a lot of money and time.

5 comments

China and SpaceX complete launches

7:36 pm

Two more launches today. First China launched a communications satellite into orbit, its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in the southwest of China. No word on where the rocket’s core stage and four side boosters crashed inside China. Nor has China released much information about the satellite itself.

Next SpaceX placed another 22 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

23 SpaceX
8 China
2 Rocket Lab

At this moment SpaceX’s 23 launches in 2025 is not far short of being twice as much as the 14 launches completed by rest of the entire world combined. It certainly is outpacing everyone else quite handily.

4 comments

Alison Balsom – Introducing the Baroque Trumpet

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Another music history lesson to start the weekend. As she says, listening to baroque music played on this instrument explains a great deal about that music, and definitely tells you what that music was expected to sound like when composed, compared to playing it on modern instruments. Far more haunting, a word I would never have used to describe Baroque music before.

Hat tip Judd Clark.

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February 21, 2025 Quick space links

4:39 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

11 comments

A Martian glacier of dust

3:14 pm

A Martian glacier of dust
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture above, rotated, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on September 2, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The tiny white dot near the lower center of the overview map below marks the location, on the northern wall of the smaller parallel canyon to the much larger part of Valles Marineris dubbed Coprates Canyon.

The scientists label this a “slope deposit.” What I see is a dust glacier flowing down hill in that long hollow (indicated by the arrows), with the ripple dunes actually acting almost like waves. Nor is this description unreasonable. On Mars the dust will gather in the hollows of these slopes and over time, with no rain and little wind to disturb them, will begin to flow down much like a glacier.

In this case, the descent is gigantic, considering the size of Valles Marineris. From the top to bottom of this image the elevation drop is about 14,000 feet over a distance of 11 miles.

Overview map

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Musk: ISS should be de-orbited quickly! And he may be right.

12:23 pm

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing ISS and outlining the airlieak annotated to show Zvezda and Poisk locations.

Food fight! Yesterday Elon Musk did a Donald Trump, issuing a bunch of tweets that are likely causing some heads to explode inside NASA, Congress, and Europe.

First — and far less significant — Musk got into a war of insults with European Space Agency astronaut Andreas Mogensen over his comments in recent days accusing the Biden administration of delaying the return of the two Starliner astronauts “for political reasons.” Mogensen accused Musk lying about this, and Musk responded by calling Mogenson “fully retarded” and an “idiot,” adding that “SpaceX could have brought them back several months ago. I OFFERED THIS DIRECTLY to the Biden administration and they refused. Return WAS pushed back for political reasons.”

Since Musk was there and Mogensen was not, it seems Musk won that battle. NASA meanwhile issued a mild statement saying everything it has done has been to maximize safety, a statement that matches the facts quite accurately.

Then Musk — on a far more important topic — stirred the pot more by tweeting his belief that ISS should be retired now.

It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the Space_Station. It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility. Let’s go to Mars.

In a second tweet he recommended the de-orbit should occur “two years from now.”

Left unstated by Musk was what might be his most important reason for retiring ISS so quickly: the fragile condition of the Russian-built Zvezda module. » Read more

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Airbus writes off $314 million for unnamed space program losses

10:45 am

Airbus on February 20, 2025 announced that it has written off $314 million due to issues in an unnamed program in its space division, adding to an almost billion dollar write-off in June 2024.

Airbus said Feb. 20 it took the 300-million-euro charge in the fourth quarter of 2024 as it completed reviews of a final, unnamed program in its space portfolio. The company had hinted in late October that it could take additional charges on that program as it completed a comprehensive review. “We had to go through the program in detail, bottom up, to fully review what we had in our portfolio, and that we have done,” Thomas Toepfer, chief financial officer of Airbus, said in a call with analysts. He did not identify that program.

The company took 900 million euros in charges in June 2024, and the company said the total charges against earnings on its space business in 2024 was 1.3 billion euros. Toepfer said that the company does not anticipate additional charges as it’s completed the review of all its space programs.

There are some hints that the program involved bad bids for satellite contracts and with suppliers. I can’t help wondering if it is also related to the overall failure of Ariane-6 to garner customers. Airbus builds and owns it in partnership with Safran.

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Billionaire who fought Sutherland spaceport now owns at least half of competing Saxavord spaceport

9:46 am

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea

Anders Povlsen, the Danish billionaire who aggressively fought the establishment of the Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland, where he owns lots of land, has increased his holding of the competing Saxavord spaceport on one of the Shetland Islands, raising his share of ownership there to at least 50%.

Danish billionaire Anders Povlsen has increased his stake in Shetland Space Centre via his company, Wild Ventures Ltd, which now owns more than half of its shares. New filings with Companies House also show that Lise Kaae, the chief executive of Mr Povlsen’s investment firm, Heartland, has been appointed as a director at the spaceport.

Mr Povlsen, who made his fortune in retail fashion and is reported to be Scotland’s largest landowner, has been involved in the spaceport since 2020 when Wild Ventures Ltd invested £1.5m.

Povlsen had for years aggressively opposed Sutherland, expressing that opposition with repeated lawsuits that caused years of regulatory delays. Those delays in turn impacted Sutherland’s biggest customer, the rocket startup Orbex, which had a fifty year lease on a launchpad and had hoped to start launches of its Prime rocket in 2022. In December 2024, with no sign it would get a launch license from the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority anytime soon, Orbex essentially gave up on Sutherland, announcing suddenly it was switching launch operations to Saxaford.

It now appears Povlsen’s lawfare effort has born fruit, which I think explains why he has now suddenly increased his ownership share in Saxavord

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New observations reduce odds of asteroid 2024 YR4’s 2032 Earth impact to practically zero

9:26 am

The uncertainty of science: According to a short update from NASA late yesterday, new ground-based observations have now reduced the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4’s will hit the Earth in 2032 to only 0.28 percent.

Observations made overnight on Feb. 19 – 20 of asteroid 2024 YR4 have further decreased its chance of Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032, to 0.28%. NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory. With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%.

Expect these numbers to change again in March, when the Webb telescope tracks the asteroid. And do not assume Webb will confirm these numbers. There remains great uncertainty in all these calculations, especially because there is great uncertainty about the size, mass, and make-up of 2024 YR4. It could be anywhere from 130 feet to 320 feet in diameter, and that difference makes these calculations uncertain.

In other words, it remains essential that work should begin on putting together a mission to visit and study this asteroid, now. Though it isn’t large enough to cause a worldwide extinction, it is big enough to do very significant damage, depending on where it hits.

5 comments

Justice Department drops absurd Biden-era discrimination lawsuit against SpaceX

9:15 am

As expected, the Justice Department now under Donald Trump’s presidency yesterday filed papers to end the insane Biden-era discrimination lawsuit against SpaceX that demanded it hire refugees and even illegal aliens, even though State Department rules forbid it to do so.

In an unopposed motion filed with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas, the Justice Department said it intended to file a notice of dismissal with prejudice, which means prosecutors would not be able to file these charges again.

Of all the lawfare initiated against Musk and SpaceX by the Biden administration, this lawsuit was by far the stupidest and most ridiculous. SpaceX doesn’t discriminate against non-American citizens. If they meet State Department rules and also have the qualifications, it hires them. And has done so. For one federal agency, Justice, to demand that SpaceX violate the rules of another agency, State, proves the lawsuit’s real purpose was harassment only.

That harassment has ended with the arrival of Trump.

3 comments

German rocket startup Isar Aerospace completes ground testing of Spectrum rocket

9:07 am

Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea
Proposed spaceports surrounding Norwegian Sea

The German rocket startup Isar Aerospace today announced that it has completed its static fire engine test program for both stages of its new Spectrum rocket, and is now readying that rocket for its first orbital launch “as soon as possible”.

Satellite launch service company Isar Aerospace is preparing for its first test flight, having successfully completed static firings of both stages of its launch vehicle ‘Spectrum’. The first flight will take place from Andøya Spaceport in Norway as soon as possible following Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) approval and licensing.

Based on how fast Norway’s bureaucracy has moved so far, that licensing process should not take that long. Expect this first launch to take place within months, even weeks. If so, Isar will have won the race to reach orbit among the half-dozen or so new European rocket startups that have popped up in the past three years, while Norway’s Andoya Spaceport will have won the race to initiate orbital spaceport operations, beating out the spaceports in the United Kingdom and Sweden.

Isar also notes that its next two rockets are already in production, which means it wants its orbital test program to move quickly to operational commercial flights.

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