Tag: capitalism

South Korea: Numerous close calls between its lunar orbiter and others

9:58 am

A South Korean official has revealed that during the ongoing mission of its lunar orbiter Danuri it has had to act to avoid dozens of potential collisions with three other spacecraft.

In a presentation at the Secure World Foundation’s Summit for Space Sustainability here July 11, Soyoung Chung, senior researcher at the Korea Aerospace Research Institute’s (KARI’s) strategy and planning directorate, said her agency had received 40 “red alarms” of potential collisions among spacecraft orbiting the moon in the last 18 months.

The warnings primarily involve close approaches involving KARI’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and the Chandrayaan-2 orbiter from India’s space agency ISRO, which are all in similar low orbits around the moon. The three agencies voluntarily share information about the orbits of their spacecraft using a NASA platform called MADCAP that generates collision warnings.

In addition, engineers had to institute a maneuver to avoid Japan’s SLIM lunar lander, and in that case the warning occurred only a day before the potential collision was to occur.

The official noted that at present there is no system to coordinate lunar orbits and spacecraft, as exists for Earth orbit. South Korea and Romania have proposed giving this power to the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, which based on UN politics would likely be a very bad thing for the commercial space industry. I guarantee that UN agency would quickly favor government missions in its decision, and would also favor authoritarian governments over capitalist nations.

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Spanish rocket startup PLD gets $34 million loan to build orbital rocket

9:43 am

The Spanish rocket startup PLD has obtained a $34 million bank loan to build its Miura-5 orbital rocket.

On 12 July, PLD Space announced that it had received a €31.2 million syndicated loan from Banco Santander, EBN Banco, and the Instituto de Crédito Oficial. A syndicated loan is provided by a group of lenders to distribute the financial risk among the participating lenders.

…According to the company, the loan amount will primarily be used for the Miura 5 rocket development programme, which includes both the development of the rocket and the expansion of the company’s industrial capabilities. It will also be used to support the company’s growth, with PLD planning to surpass 300 employees by the end of 2024.

For a rocket startup to get significant financing through a bank loan like this is very unusual. Almost always banks are reluctant to loan money for such a risky project. Instead, rocket startups get investment capital from venture capitalists, who are willing to take greater risks. PLD itself has already raised $164 million in this manner, $46 million of which came from the Spanish government itself.

I therefore wonder if some political pressure from the Spanish government helped convince the banks to approve the loan.

Regardless, PLD hopes to do the first orbital test launch of Miura-5 in 2025, with operational flights to follow the next year.

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Europa Clipper mission threatened by faulty transistors

9:31 am

Engineers have learned that transistors installed on NASA’s Europa Clipper mission were not built to the right specifications and could fail in the harsh environment surrounding Jupiter.

The issue with the transistors came to light in May when the mission team was advised that similar parts were failing at lower radiation doses than expected. In June 2024, an industry alert was sent out to notify users of this issue. The manufacturer is working with the mission team to support ongoing radiation test and analysis efforts in order to better understand the risk of using these parts on the Europa Clipper spacecraft.

Testing data obtained so far indicates some transistors are likely to fail in the high-radiation environment near Jupiter and its moon Europa because the parts are not as radiation resistant as expected. The team is working to determine how many transistors may be susceptible and how they will perform in-flight. NASA is evaluating options for maximizing the transistors’ longevity in the Jupiter system. A preliminary analysis is expected to be complete in late July.

This issue could be disaster for the mission, which has a launch window that opens on October 10, 2024. If it is impossible to replace the bad transistors, NASA will be faced with two choices, neither great. It could launch regardless and hope for the best. It could delay the mission to fix the problem, which might involve a delay of years waiting for a new launch window.

This story appears to illustrate once again the decline in quality control that appears to be happening across much of American industry. The technology for building radiation-hardened equipment has been standard for decades. For a company to deliver equipment below standard now suggests incompetence or fraud, neither of which speaks well for it and the entire industry.

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SpaceX launch experiences a failure of upper stage

10:52 pm

Second stage engine with leak

For the first time since June 2015, a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch experienced a failure today after lifting from Vandenberg in California. During a launch tonight of twenty Starlink satellites, the upper stage showed signs of a fuel leak during its initial burn, and according to a tweet from Elon Musk, it exploded when it relit to make a final orbital adjustment.

Upper stage restart to raise perigee resulted in an engine RUD [rapid unscheduled dissembly] for reasons currently unknown. Team is reviewing data tonight to understand root cause.

Starlink satellites were deployed, but the perigee may be too low for them to raise orbit. Will know more in a few hours.

The arrow on the screen capture from the live feed, taken during the upper stage’s initial burn, indicates that apparent leak.

The first stage however successfully completed its nineteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

This failure ended an incredible string of 344 successful launches, a record unmatched by any rocket ever in the history of space exploration. It was also the very first launch failure of SpaceX’s Block 5 Falcon 9, the rocket’s final design that has allowed the first stages to be reused now more than twenty times.

The next SpaceX launch is presently scheduled for July 14, 2024, but we should expect that launch to be postponed while engineers investigate the failure tonight. We should also expect that delay to last no more than several weeks, at most.

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India picks astronauts to train for manned mission to ISS

10:36 am

India has now reduced from four to two the astronauts it is training for the fourth Axiom commercial mission to ISS, planned for launch no earlier than October 2024.

Only one of these two men will fly on that Axiom mission, with the other being the back-up should a change be required. The decision on who has not yet been made.

The astronauts will have to go to the United States ahead of the mission to train on the specifics of the ISS. “While they have general training for space-fairing, much of their training in India focussed on Gaganyaan modules. They will have to be familiarised with ISS modules and protocols,” the official said.

The names of the two astronauts has not been released, as far as I can find. Either way, this training will be used in preparation for India’s own manned Gaganyaan orbital mission, now scheduled for 2025, since three of these four men will fly on Gaganyaan.

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Axiom signs $125 million deal with startup Gravitics to build a module for its space station

10:22 am

Artist conception of Gravitics' Starmax module
Artist conception of Gravitics’ Starmax
module, designed to fit inside Starship

The space station company Axiom on July 9, 2024 awarded a $125 million contract to the Seattle-based startup Gravitics to build a module for its upcoming space station.

The space station modules Gravitics is designing range from 3 meters (9 feet) to 8 meters (26 feet) in diameter. The largest module, which the company boasts will have the “largest interior volume in a standalone spacecraft,” is dubbed StarMax, a name inspired by SpaceX’s towering Starship rocket.

“We started by looking at Starship and saying, ‘Someone is going to maximize that payload volume,'” Doughan said.

It appears this contract is for one of the company’s smaller modules, though this could change with time.

Up until now, Axiom has hired the European company Thales Alenia to build the modules for its Axiom space station, with the first modules to initially be docked with ISS and then undocked to fly independent when ready. This contract, which is not exclusive, indicates Axiom’s desire to develop resources in America.

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India now has its own private company building space station modules

9:45 am

Even as India’s space agency ISRO gears up to build its own government space station, a Indian startup is proposing to build and launch its own commercial space station inflatable module, capable of carrying “6 to 16 personnel.”

The company, AkashaLabdhi, says it is negotiations with SpaceX for a launch target in 2027.

Founded in 2023, AkashaLabdhi has prepared its prototype model of the habitat called ‘Antariksh HAB’, according to a report by The Times of India. Antariksh HAB contains features such as an expandable shell that ensures ‘exceptional orbital debris and radiation protection’, the company says on its website. According to AkashaLabdhi, the design has multiple purposes besides space habitation. It can be used for microgravity experiments, satellite maintenance, orbital logistics storage. The company also hopes to see its usage for space tourism, armed forces operations among others.

“With a forward-looking perspective, this adaptable habitat holds potential for long-term lunar surface exploration,” the company said on its website. Built with several layers, the structure is meant to reach its intended orbit of 1,100 km. AkashaLabhi CEO Siddarth Jena told TOI on Wednesday that the structure will take about seven days to fully inflate, once it reaches its desired destination.

How real the plans of this company is unknown. That it exists at all and is proposing such ambitious plans illustrates however the capitalism in space revolution that is going on in India. The country has the technical capabilities to do such things, and is now free to go ahead due to the policies of the Modi government that has forced ISRO to provide aid and support, rather than control everything.

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Starliner return delayed until after ground thruster tests are completed and analyzed

9:15 am

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked during the unmanned demo
flight in May 2022

According the NASA and Boeing officials yesterday, they are in the process of doing ground thruster tests to emulate the problems that occurred on the thrusters during docking procedures to ISS in early June, and will not decide on a return date for Starliner until after those tests are completed and analyzed, expected sometime in the next two weeks.

It appears some of the ground tests were delayed slightly due to the arrival of Hurricane Beryl in Texas.

It is very important to note that the astronauts are not “stranded” on the station, as a lot of news organizations are still claiming. The thrusters on Starliner that failed are part of the service module, which will not return to Earth when the astronauts come home on the the capsule. They therefore want to do as much research as possible beforehand in order to determine the cause of the failures in order to prevent them on future capsule flights. For example, the ground tests are first attempting to duplicate precisely what happened during docking, and will then do tests attempting to duplicate what will happen during de-orbit.

In the meantime, they appear to have no doubt that they can use Starliner for return, no matter what. At the moment only one thruster appears out-of-commission, and none of the thrusters that failed during docking are used for the de-orbit burn. They are only used for orientation, and the capsule has ample redundancy for this function sufficient for de-orbit.

In addition, it is a good thing for them to extend Starliner’s total flight time. I suspect even if everything had worked as planned they would have extended this mission as they have. This allows them to prove out the in-space operation of the capsule and service module. So far it appears that operation has been excellent, which is one reason they are willing to delay the return to do the ground tests.

Overall, my impression is that the situation is entirely under control, and in fact NASA is reasonably satisfied with the capsule’s operation in general. It appears that the agency will likely have no problem in flying future manned missions with Starliner, though it will want the thruster issue solved beforehand.

As for Boeing, these problems have stained its reputation further, and have likely made it much more difficult to sell future capsule flights to other customers. I would say however that after listening to the last few press briefings it seems to me that Boeing’s manned space division is now doing the proper due diligence it should have done before. For example, the thruster problems appear to be related to overheating during use, which is a very fixable issue.

These facts actually makes me more confident in the capsule, and future potential customers should do the same review themselves.

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Japanese company proposes building a module to add to Axiom’s space station

9:24 am

Axiom's space station assembly sequence
The assembly sequence for Axiom’s space station while attached to ISS.
Click for original image.

The Japanese company Mitsui has now proposed building a module — based on Japan’s HTV cargo freighter that did several missions to ISS — and sell it to the commercial space stations now under construction.

Mitsui has created a subsidiary called LEO Shachu to develop the module. What makes this project very likely to happen is that Mitsui is also an investor in Axiom’s space station, and according to the article at the link, a Axiom official who is also a retired Japanese astronaut who flew to ISS has expressed interest in it.

This story also helps outline the international landscape of the future stations. While Voyager Space’s Starlab station has been partnering extensively with Europe and Airbus, Axiom appears to be partnering more closely with NASA and Japan. The third station that has obtained NASA money, Blue Origin’s Orbit Reef, had made an earlier deal with Mitsubishi, but appears to have obtained few other outside partners, and that Mitsubishi deal only involved “development work,” not specific hardware. Moreover, Mitsubishi later made a new deal with the Starlab station, suggesting it had broken up with Blue Origin.

A fourth station, being built by the private company Vast with no NASA money, has partnered with SpaceX and ESA. It is also likely to be the first to launch its first module in August 2025, followed soon thereafter by a 30 day 4-person Dragon mission.

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Astroscale’s ADRAS-J test spacecraft continues successfully maneuvers around abandoned rocket upper stage

9:04 am

abandoned upper stage, taken by ADRAS-J
Click for original image.

The Japaneses orbital tug startup Astroscale has revealed that its ADRAS-J test spacecraft has successfully completed more complicated autonomous proximity maneuvers around an abandoned H2A rocket upper stage that it rendezvoused with in March 2024.

Astroscale announced July 9 that its Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan (ADRAS-J) spacecraft conducted a “fly around” maneuver, going part way around the H-2A upper stage it has been inspecting for the last few months. ADRAS-J used sensors to maintain a distance of just 50 meters from the stage.

However, about one third of the way through the maneuver, ADRAS-J encountered what the company called an “unexpected attitude anomaly” that triggered an automatic abort. The spacecraft moved away from the stage as designed to avoid any risk of a collision. “The abort maneuver implemented during the fly-around operation demonstrated that ADRAS-J can maintain safety even while performing close approach observations of non-cooperative objects,” the company said in a statement, adding that engineers had found the cause of the anomaly and were preparing for another close approach to the stage.

The picture to the right is of that upper stage, taken shortly after ADRAS-J arrived near the stage in the spring. According to the company, the stage is in remarkably good condition despite fifteen years in orbit, and also is flying in a very stable manner, tumbling almost not at all. This data suggests a mission to grab it and de-orbit it safely would be relatively easy.

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Europe at last launches Ariane-6

12:47 pm

Ariane-6 seconds after liftoff
Ariane-6 seconds after liftoff

Arianespace, the commercial rocket arm of the European Space Agency (ESA) today successfully completed the first launch of its new Ariane-6 rocket, lifting off from French Guiana in South America carrying nine cubesats plus two re-entry test capsules.

As of posting, the nine cubesats have been deployed. Of the remaining payloads, one is a smallscale version of the return cargo capsule being built by the French company The Exploration Company. It will test the re-entry technology for that capsule.

UPDATE: There was an issue restarting the upper stage later in the flight that prevented the last payloads from being released. The bigwigs at the press conference at this link repeatedly insisted the flight was a complete success, but this failure of the upper stage is not a good thing, but hardly a disaster. It is similar to problems Firefly had on some of its early flights, which the company was able to overcome.

If all goes as planned, Arianespace and Arianegroup (the private company that builds and owns the rocket) hope to ramp up launches over the next three years, doing one more in 2024, six in 2025, eight in 2026, and ten in 2027. It says the rocket has contracts for thirty launches, eighteen of which are for launching Amazon’s Kuiper internet constellation.

I expect Ariane-6 to face heavy competitive pressure over that time period, not only from SpaceX but from the new European rocket startups that should begin launching at far less cost. The pressure should make the future of Ariane-6 somewhat dim, unless the European Union steps in and mandates its use by European satellite companies. If the latter happens, expect Europe’s entire space industry to suffer badly.

This was Europe’s first launch in 2024, so the leader board in the 2024 launch race has not changed:

71 SpaceX
30 China
8 Russia
8 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 83 to 46, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 71 to 58.

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Japan dithers about capitalism in space

9:38 am

Despite its government creating in November 2023 a new “Space Strategic Fund” worth more than $6 billion designed to encourage capitalism in space and handing it to Japan’s space agency JAXA to administer, JAXA officials continue to dither on how to use that money to encourage private enterprise in space.

Japan’s space agency is seeking industry proposals for technologies that could contribute to future commercial space stations as the government studies what role it would play in supporting efforts to replace the International Space Station.

…That work will inform plans by Japan on how it can participate in commercial space stations being developed by American companies in partnership with NASA. “We are discussing how we will join NASA’s Commercial LEO Destination program,” said [Yasuo Ishii, senior vice president of JAXA]. “Our responsibility is not clear yet, but, of course, commitment at the government level is essential to commercial operations.” [emphasis mine]

The highlighted phrases above reveal the underlying motives of JAXA, which is not to encourage private independent space companies and reduce its involvement. Just the opposite. And it appears Japan’s government is a partner in this. While Japan gave that money to its space agency, which seems to be searching for ways to hold onto its power, both Europe and India instead quickly took power and funding away from their government agencies (Arianespace and ISRO respectively) to encourage independent private space companies to flourish.

This dithering will only put Japan further behind these countries as well as China, a reality that has become increasingly embarassing for the island nation.

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