More launch news: The launch of the climate satellite Glory was postponed again today. No new launch date is set.
Glory launch postponed until early Friday.
Is there a crack in the monolith? A play about the persecution of a scientist who expresses skepticism about global warming is running in London, with favorable reviews!
Listen to the squealing: Scientists criticize the House vote to cut off funds to the IPCC. Key quote:
Without the federal support, [Stanford ecologist Chris Field] said, “We’d have no ability to organize meetings, we’d have no ability to coordinate chapters.”
In other words, no more jaunts to Cancun in the midst of winter. What a shame!
Considering the insincere effort of the IPCC and its scientists to correct its numerous errors, as well as their admitted political agenda, it seems completely appropriate to stop funding it with U.S. tax dollars. If these environmentalists want to issue a report, they should pay for it themselves.
In today’s listing of new science papers published by the American Geophysical Union, two papers illustrate quite clearly why the certainty of knowledge expressed by Presidential Science Advisor John Holdren in his testimony before Congress on Thursday is both mistaken and dangerous.
» Read more
The following story is why the advocates of global warming are losing the debate: At House hearings yesterday, Obama’s science advisor John Holdren admitted that using the term “deniers” to describe scientists who had doubts about global warming is inappropriate. “It was not my intent to compare them to Holocaust deniers, and I regret it,” he replied. “In the future I will find other terms to use.”
Sounds good, doesn’t it? Shortly thereafter, however, during the same hearing, Holdren then said this about a list of 100 climate scientists [word file] who remain skeptical about global warming:
“I haven’t seen the list,” Holdren began. “But in the past, most of the names on such petitions have turned out not to be climate scientists, and one could assume that they had not spent much time reviewing the literature.”
Without any knowledge, he slams these scientists, accusing them of being ignorant of the science.
» Read more
The great wind scam. Key quote:
“With demand for power at record levels because of the freezing weather, there have been days when the contribution of our forests of wind turbines has been precisely nothing,” wrote Richard Littlejohn in the Daily Mail Dec. 27. “It gets better,” Mr. Littlejohn continued. “As the temperature has plummeted, the turbines have had to be heated to prevent them from seizing up. Consequently, they have been consuming more electricity than they generate.”
Wanna bet? A new study predicts the sea will rise by one meter by 2100.
How they come up with this number is a mystery to me, as every study I have read, including every IPCC report, says the sea has been rising about 1 to 2 millimeters per year for the last few centuries. At this rate, it will take between five hundred and a thousand years to get a rise of one meter.
The sleepy kitten awakes! The Sun released its most powerful solar flare since 2006 last night.
The law of unintended consequences: Low-income groups are challenging California’s cap-and-trade climate law.
Get those winter coats out of storage! Yesterday NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center published its monthly update of the Sun’s sunspot cycle. I’ve posted the newest graph below, showing the continuing slow rise in sunspots (blue/black lines) in comparison with the consensis prediction made by the solar science community in May 2009 (red line).
Though the sunspot count made a slight recovery in January, it was not enough to make up for the plunge in December. Essentially, the Sun continues to act like a sleepy kitten that really doesn’t want to wake up. This suggests that even the newest and wimpiest prediction for the next solar maximum, from solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is still overstating the Sun’s upcoming sunspot activity.
In the past a wimpy Sun has been linked to cold weather, for reasons that scientists as yet don’t quiet understand. And this next solar maximum continues to look like the wimpiest in more than 200 years (see the graph on this page)!
Mo Brooks (R-Alabama), the new chairman of the House subcommittee that oversees National Science Foundation (NSF), NASA, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Commerce, gives his perspective on science and the budget. Two quotes of interest:
Q: Do you believe that federal research should be exempt from a rollback in federal spending to 2008 levels?
Brooks: I would love for that to happen. But we just don’t have the money. … We have no choice but to look at everything. If we don’t balance our budget over a short period of time, the federal government is going to collapse and there won’t be money for any of these things. So if we’re going to save money for research and advancement in science, we’re going to have to get our house in order now.Q: Do you think the government should increase funding on research once things turn around?
Brooks: Do you mean if the budgetary situation turns around? I don’t see that happening in the next 4 to 5 years. We’ve got a $1.5 trillion budget deficit, and Admiral Mullen, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has declared it the number one security threat to the country. And if our creditors would cut us off, there would be zero money for national defense or NSF or anything else.
Note how the interviewer, from Science, can’t seem to get his head around the idea of budget cuts.
Q: Is human activity causing global warming?
Brooks: That’s a difficult question to answer because I’ve talked to scientists on both sides of the fence, especially at the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Some say yes, and some say no. I’m also old enough to remember when the same left-wing part of our society was creating a global cooling scare in order to generate funds for their pet projects. So 30-some years ago, the big scare was global cooling, and once they drained the government, they shifted to global warming. So I’m approaching the issue with a healthy degree of skepticism. If the evidence is there to prove it, then so be it.
The space war over NASA continues: A group of House Republicans want to cut NASA’s climate research budget — increased significantly by Obama — and put it back into manned spaceflight.
Time for some more sightseeing on Mars. A recent news release from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter noted the discovery of seasonal avalanches on Mars. This new image of the northern martian sand dunes illustrate again how the surface of Mars changes seasonally. The white patches on the ridges of the sand dunes is frozen carbon dioxide, dry ice that condenses on the crowns of the dunes every winter. When spring comes, the dry ice evaporates, and as it does so it disturbs the underlying sand, which then tumbles down the sides of the dunes, producing the dark streaks.
The process is less dramatic, however, than the avalanches seen in the previous news release, as suggested by this image below, showing the same dunes in summer without the dry ice. The dark streaks in the second image are not significantly different from the first, indicating that the process that forms them is slow and subtle.
Snowball Earth! Or at least, half a snowball: NOAA satellite images show almost the entire northern hemisphere covered in snow.
For reasons unknown, for the past thirty years high altitude noctilucent clouds have been getting brighter.
New research finds that the Himalayan glaciers are not melting. Key quote:
The new study by scientists at the Universities of California and Potsdam has found that half of the glaciers in the Karakoram range, in the northwestern Himlaya, are in fact advancing and that global warming is not the deciding factor in whether a glacier survives or melts.
The last part of the above quote, on global warming, is almost certainly an overstatement of what we do or don’t know. Warming will cause glaciers to melt, but how much and when are factors that are still not understood. Moreover, we are still not sure how much warming has even occurred.
Solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have once again revised downward their prediction for the intensity of the next solar maximum. Key quote:
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.
If this prediction holds, the upcoming solar maximum could be the lowest since the cycle came back to life in around 1715 following the Maunder Minimum.
Climate scientists admit that a climate change study which claimed the Earth would warm by more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit in about a decade had “significant errors”. Key quote:
Scientist Scott Mandia forwarded to AFP an email he said he sent to Hisas ahead of publication explaining why her figures did not add up, and noting that it would take “quite a few decades” to reach a warming level of 2.4 degrees Celsius. “Even if we assume the higher end of the current warming rate, we should only be 0.2C warmer by 2020 than today,” Mandia wrote. “To get to +2.4C the current trend would have to immediately increase almost ten-fold.”
2010 sea level: The largest drop ever recorded? Key quote:
2006 was the first year to show a drop in the global sea level. 2010 will be the 2nd year to show a decrease in sea level. That is correct, 2 of the past 5 years are going to show a decrease in sea level. 2010 could likely show a significant drop global sea level. By significant I mean it is possible that it will likely drop between 2-3 mm from 2009.
All IPCC predictions insist that increased carbon dioxide will cause sea level rise. All these predictions are now wrong, as carbon dioxide is still increasing in the atmosphere but the sea level has actually been going down.
For today, and today only, the Sun was blank. This blankness ended, however, when a sunspot rotated into view from the far side.
As I asked the last time the Sun was blank in December, will this be the last blank day of the just-ended but very prolonged solar minimum?
The bands that scientists attach to penguins to track them actually do harm. The data also suggests that certain climate research might also be skewed because of this. Key quote:
Overall, the team found, bands were bad for penguins. Banded penguins had a 16% lower survival rate than unbanded birds over the 10 years, the researchers report online today in Nature. Banded birds also arrived later at the breeding grounds and took longer trips to forage for food. As a result, they produced 39% fewer chicks. . . . [The researcher noted] that his team’s results suggest that research using banded penguins may be biased. For example, he says, several high-profile studies have used banded penguins to investigate the impact of climate change on the birds. The findings of those studies aren’t necessarily wrong, but the numbers need to be reconsidered, he says.
What does this story really tell us? Electric cars are wonderful — except that the dealer hasn’t sold any.
Black gold! Three to four billion barrels of oil — 25 times more than previously predicted — are now thought to lie under certain geological formations in North Dakota and Montana.
Russian scientists are about to drill into Lake Vostok, a lake buried for the last 14 million years beneath the almost two and a half mile thick Antarctic icecap.
The next time someone begins ranting about how the money from “big oil” is used to attack the science of global warming, tell them to take a look at this post, which outlines in detail the more than $2 billion that the U.S. government plans to spend on climate change research in 2011 alone (too much of which is unfortunately used by partisans like James Hansen to try to prove the Earth is warming).
In a paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union, scientists describe how they have been able to produce remarkably detailed images of the ground buried almost a mile under the ice sheet of Greenland. These radar techniques are the same used in the past by spacecraft to image the hidden surface of Venus, only far more sophisticated.
This image from the paper compares the radar image of the Greenland surface (on the left) to an photograph of a known surface feature in the Northwest Territories of Canada, produced thousands of years ago by the giant icesheets of the last Ice Age. Both are at the same scale, about a third of a mile across, and are looking at the surface at an oblique angle of about 45 degrees. With the radar-produced image on the left, sunlight is simulated as coming from the right, with the elevation increasing as the colors go from green (lowest) to yellow to brown to purple (highest).
The long grooves, generally 30 to 100 feet deep and extending sometimes several miles, are produced as the icesheet slides across the ground. In the radar image, however, these grooves are slowly being ground out now.
It is the resolution of this technique that is so exciting. That they can look through ice almost a mile thick and resolve objects that are only tens of feet across tells me that someday it will be possible for spacecraft to map the smallest features on the surface of Venus or Titan. More exciting, this suggests that the technology will one day exist to even map the unknown surface of gas giants like Jupiter or Saturn, and do it in breathtaking detail.
Yowza!
From Watts Up With That: Data from the Argos ocean floats says that the Earth’s climate, as measured by the heat content of the ocean, has been cooling since 2001, not warming as predicted by climate models. You can download the actual science paper, “The Energy Balance of Earth,” here.
A nation choking on endless laws. I like the subtitle for this article as well: “The rising dictatorship of the bureaucrats.”
