Tag: commercial

After only seven commercial flights, Virgin Galactic retires Unity

9:33 am

The delays have never really ended: After only seven commercial flights (the most recent this past weekend), Virgin Galactic has now retired its Unity suborbital spacecraft, and will cease flights for two years while it builds a new generation suborbital craft.

Virgin Galactic flew the last commercial flight of Virgin SpaceShip (VSS) Unity yesterday. Future suborbital trips will have to wait until the new Delta-class spaceships are ready in 2026. They can carry six passengers instead of four, increasing revenue. This flight, Galactic 07, took a Turkish researcher and three private individuals across the imaginary line that separates air and space for a few minutes of weightlessness.

Founded in 2004 and largely funded by Sir Richard Branson as part of his Virgin Group, Virgin Galactic is still trying to demonstrate that commercial suborbital human spaceflight can be a profitable business. Last year Branson told the Financial Times he would stop investing in Virgin Galactic, putting pressure on CEO Michael Colglazier to cut costs and focus on getting the Delta version flying. After all these years of waiting to fly commercial passengers,VSS Unity will stop after just one year and seven commercial flights.

Branson had promised that Virgin Galactic would be flying hundreds of times per year by the mid-2000s. Didn’t happen. Virgin Galactic took deposits from hundreds (it claimed), but even now has only flown 30 people on those seven flights, many of whom have been recent customers, not the many original supporters. That’s the sum total of all of Richard Branson’s achievement with this company in two decades.

Now, with Branson out of the picture, the new management has to redo everything again, because what Branson designed was not profitable. I have serious doubts the company will fly again in 2026.

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SpaceX completes two Starlink launches hours apart

9:49 am

SpaceX last night completed two Starlink launches hours apart from opposite coasts. First its Falcon 9 rocket took 23 Starlink satellites into orbit, lifting off from Cape Canaveral. The first stage completed its 16th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Then, a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Vandenberg carried 20 Starlink satellites into orbit, its first stage completing its 21st flight (tying the record), landing safely on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

62 SpaceX
27 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 72 to 41, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 62 to 51.

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ESA signs deal with Vast to use its Haven-1 space station

2:51 pm

Vast Haven-1 station inside Falcon-9 fairing
Vast Haven-1 station inside Falcon-9 fairing

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the commercial space station startup Vast today signed an agreement that sets the initial terms for ESA to use Vast’s first space station, Haven-1, as well as any space stations to follow.

The agreement outlines the parties’ intention to foster human spaceflight, science, technology and commercialisation development and explore collaboration in low Earth orbit destinations other than the International Space Station. The collaboration will initially focus on exploring opportunities for access to space for Europe through the Vast Space Stations. These could include:

  • Access to the Vast Space Stations for ESA and its Member States, for astronaut missions and research activities as well as commercial business development.
  • Supporting European industry to supply subsystems and equipment for future Vast Space Stations.
  • Vast making use of future qualified European LEO cargo and/or crew transportation services, at market rates and commercially viable terms and conditions, also as a means for offsetting future ESA Astronaut Missions.
  • Vast and ESA jointly supporting European industry in getting certified for docking to future Vast Space Stations.

This deal is actually a very big deal, as Vast’s Haven-1 space station is the only one under construction that does not have a deal with NASA. It is being financed privately and will at first simply be a one module habitat set to launch as early as August 2025 on a Falcon 9 rocket, with the first 30-day 4-person manned mission to follow almost immediately on a Dragon capsule. Vast’s work is closely linked with SpaceX, as its station also has a deal to use Starlink for communications.

The plan is to add more modules in the coming years to build up to a full station.

This deal not only indicates that this independent station is going to give the NASA-supported stations some real competition, it indicates that Europe is committed to doing the same. Now that Europe has abandoned the government-owned and international cooperation model it has used for decades with decidedly mixed results and switched to the capitalism model, where it is merely a customer buying things from a competing private sector, it is doing so full speed ahead, without any hesitation.

The independence of this station also frees it and its customers from the heavy rules that NASA routinely imposes on anyone who deals with it. This aspect gives Vast a competitive advantage that many will clearly wish to take advantage of.

This deal is therefore a challenge that better be recognized by NASA and the other commercial stations. If they don’t react properly they could find themselves left in the dust completely.

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Boeing’s Starliner successfully docks with ISS

10:57 am

Despite several minor helium leaks and the failure of 6 of its 28 small attitude thrusters (four of which were reactivated during an improvised hot fire test during rendezvous operations), Boeing’s Starliner has successfully docked with ISS today.

Though now safely arrived at ISS, the hatch has not yet opened. The spacecraft carries NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, and will now spend about a week at the space station checking out its systems before undocking and returning to Earth.

All told, this docking is a success, though the various thruster issues are a concern that must be addressed by Boeing, especially because there were thruster issues as well during the previous unmanned demo flight.

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SpaceX successfully launches and lands Starship and Superheavy

7:20 am

Damaged but working flap on Starship
Damaged but working flap on Starship

SpaceX this morning successfully launched and landed both Starship and Superheavy in the ocean, with both vehicles splashing down in a vertical position as planned.

Some quick details:

  • One engine on Superheavy failed during launch, but the vehicle completed its job, successfully releasing Starship as planned.
  • Superheavy then completed a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, landing softly and vertically. It then tipped over into the water as planned. At this moment it is unclear how successful it was in landing precisely at its planned location. One engine during the landing burn failed.
  • Unlike the previous test, Starship flew under control for its entire flight, even though the camera view showed a flap actually begin breaking up.
  • That flap, despite damage, appeared to function through landing. The screen capture to the right was taken just before landing, as the flap adjusted its position despite the significant damage near its attachment point to the ship.
  • It appeared that Starship successfully completed its flip to vertical just before landing.
  • At landing it was unclear if the landing burn occurred as planned. It did appear the spacecraft splashed down softly, and the controllers announced the burn occurred, but the indicators on the screen showed no engine burn.

Overall, this launch was an incredible success. Based on the results, the fifth test flight should be approved by the FAA relatively quickly. The FAA’s responsibility is supposed to be limited to just issues of safety. As long as SpaceX demonstrates the rocket landed where it was intended, the FAA has no cause to delay future approvals.

If so, the next launch could occur very quickly, as the next prototypes are ready and waiting. We could see another launch within two months, at the most. I predict late July, though it could be a bit later if SpaceX engineers need more time to analyze what happened to Starship during descent and then apply that knowledge to the next prototype.

UPDATE: China also had a successful launch this morning. Pseudo-company Galactic Energy’s Ceres-1 rocket placed three satellites into orbit, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in the northwest of China.

Little information was released by China’s state-run press, which didn’t even bother to mention the pseudo-company’s name in its report. The solid-fueled lower stages landed somewhere inside China, but we have no idea where or how close to habitable areas.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

60 SpaceX
27 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 70 to 41, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 60 to 51.

Note that for context the U.S. total at this moment, 70 launches and achieved in less than half a year, matches the nation’s previous annual record set in 1966 and held until 2022.

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Firefly gets a major 25-launch contract from Lockheed Martin

9:02 pm

Firefly today announced that Lockheed Martin has awarded it a launch contract for 25 launches through 2029.

The contract “commits Lockheed Martin to 15 launch reservations and 10 optional launches.”

What is interesting about this agreement is who Lockheed did not give the launches to. Lockheed Martin has been a major investor in Rocket Lab, which is about to complete its 50th operational launch. It also has been a major investor in the rocket startup ABL, which in 2021 Lockheed Martin awarded its own giant launch contract for 58 launches through 2029.

ABL however has not yet had a successful launch. It tried twice in 2022, but has done nothing since. It could very well be that this new contract for Firefly is a signal that Lockheed Martin has lost faith in ABL, that there are more fundamental problems in that company. Those problems could also be related to the new regulatory burdens from the FAA that in the past two years appear to have slowed development by all American rocket startups.

That Lockheed Martin did not give this contract to Rocket Lab, which is flying, could be because Lockheed is trying to encourage the development of multiple small satellite launchers, in order to provide its main satellite-making business a variety of good options.

Either way, this deal strengthens Firefly’s position, even though its Alpha rocket has only had two launches (in 2022 and 2023), both of which put the payloads in orbit but failed to place them in the correct orbit. Moreover, the company has said it would launch four times in 2024, and as yet to launch once.

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ESA schedules first Ariane-6 launch for July 9, 2024

10:07 am

After years of delays and technical problems the European Space Agency (ESA) today announced that it has finally scheduled the first Ariane-6 launch, now to take place on July 9, 2024 from French Guiana.

The press release at the link tries to paint a glowing future for Ariane-6, as illustrated by this quote from Stéphane Israël, CEO of Arianespace.

“With 30 missions in our order book, Ariane 6 has already gained the trust of institutional and commercial customers. We are preparing to make Ariane 6’s second launch by the end of the year, followed by a steady rise to around ten launches a year once we reach cruising speed. It represents a splendid challenge for Arianespace and our partners.”

The simple fact is that Ariane-6 costs too much to launch and is not competitive with the new generation of reuseable rockets. If Amazon’s management had not decided to give it a big launch contract (in order to avoid giving that money to SpaceX), it would have very few payloads to launch. Once those launches are completed expect Ariane-6 to go the way of the dodo and the buggy whip, replaced by a new fleet of competing private European rocket companies capable of doing things faster and cheaper.

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ULA’s Atlas-5 launches Boeing’s Starliner capsule on its first manned mission

9:17 am

After many delays and scrubs involving both the rocket and the capsule, ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket today successfully launched Boeing’s Starliner capsule on its first manned mission, carrying NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams.

I have embedded the live stream below, cued to just before liftoff. The spacecraft will dock with ISS tomorrow, where Wilmore and Williams will spend a week checking out the capsule’s operations before undocking and returning to Earth.

As this was only the third launch this year for ULA, the leader board for the 2024 launch race doesn’t change:

59 SpaceX
26 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 69 to 40, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 59 to 50.

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SpaceX and Rocket Lab complete successful launches

8:45 pm

This evening both SpaceX and Rocket Lab completed launches only about an hour apart but on opposite sides of the world.

First, SpaceX this evening successfully launched another 20 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its 20th flight, landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Next, Rocket Lab completed the second to two launches for NASA, placing the second Prefire climate satellite into orbit, following the first launch on May 25, 2024. Its Electron rocket lifted off from Rocket Lab’s launchpad in New Zealand.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

59 SpaceX
26 China
8 Russia
7 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 68 to 40, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 59 to 49.

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