Tag: engineering

Astronomers propose a new explanation for “Bright Blue Outbursts”

1:16 pm

Among the number of quick transient events discovered by the new automated survey telescopes on the ground and in space that have been built in the past two decades are something astronomers have labeled “bright blue outbursts”, bright flashes of blue and ultraviolet light that appear quickly and then fade away, leaving behind X-ray and radio emissions.

There are several theories as to what causes these flashes, but none are accepted whole-heartedly. Now a team of astronomers have looked at one flash and proposed a new theory.

This curious class of objects is known as luminous fast blue optical transients (LFBOTs), and with slightly more than a dozen discovered so far, astronomers have debated whether they are produced by an unusual type of supernova or by interstellar gas falling into a black hole.

Analysis of the brightest LFBOT to-date, named AT 2024wpp and discovered last year, shows that they’re neither. Instead, a team led by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, concluded that they are caused by an extreme tidal disruption, where a black hole of up to 100 times the mass of our Sun completely shreds its massive star companion within days.

… “The sheer amount of radiated energy from these bursts is so large that you can’t power them with a core collapse stellar explosion — or any other type of normal stellar explosion,” says Natalie LeBaron, UC Berkeley graduate student and first author on the paper presenting the Gemini data [1]. “The main message from AT 2024wpp is that the model that we started off with is wrong. It’s definitely not just an exploding star.”

The researchers hypothesize that the intense, high-energy light emitted during this extreme tidal disruption was a consequence of the long parasitic history of the black hole binary system. As they reconstruct this history, the black hole had been sucking material from its companion for a long time, completely enshrouding itself in a halo of material too far from the black hole for it to swallow.

Need I mention that this theory, while better explaining the data, remains unconfirmed and decidedly uncertain.

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France and U.S. militaries complete rendezvous maneuvers in orbit

9:21 am

According to a statement by France’s military, the U.S. and France have successfully completed planned rendezvous maneuvers by two of their satellites in orbit.

These operations also apparently included the United Kingdom.

While the neither the US nor its allies have made public the satellites involved in any of the joint RPOs, the private space tracking firm COMSPOC said Sept. 19 that the maneuvers with the UK involved a US Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) neighborhood watch bird. The GSSAP satellite, USA 271, began moving on Sept. 5 and on Sept. 12 stopped just 13 kilometers (8.1 miles) from the UK’s SKYNET 5A military communications bird, the firm explained.

COMSPOC also watched the Franco-American pas-de-deux, which a company spokesperson told Breaking Defense involved another GSSAP, USA 324, and France’s SYRACUSE 3A. The satellites performed three sets of maneuvers: Nov. 11-14; Nov. 22-23; and Nov. 28-29, according to COMSPOC’s observations. “In all these movements, SYRACUSE 3A seems to lead and USA 324 seems to follow as the maneuvers performed by USA 324 is lagged by a day,” the spokesperson said, with the closest approach being about 25.1 kilometers (15.6 miles). [emphasis mine]

I have highlighted the distances above because these military maneuvers are actually quite unimpressive when compared with similar recent commercial rendezvous and proximity tests in orbit. The just completed Impulse/Starfish test for example got within 1.25 kilometers. And in 2024 Japan’s Astroscale did proximity operations within 50 meters of an old abandoned upper stage.

I suspect the best thing these militaries could do is to stop wasting money trying to do this themselves, and just hire the commercial companies instead. They’d do much better.

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Two launches early today

9:02 am

Both China and the American company ULA successfully completed launches since yesterday.

First, China placed the third satellite in an new Earth observation constellation, its Long March 4B rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in northeast China.

Developed by the China Academy of Space Technology, the satellite will join the Ziyuan III 02 and 03 satellites already in orbit to form a high-precision observation constellation. Equipped with a stereoscopic mapping camera, multispectral camera, and laser altimeter, it will capture high-resolution 3D imagery critical for geographic data collection and natural resource management.

It appears however that this constellation is used by China’s military, so I suspect its purposes do not exactly match this description. China’s state-run press also provided no information as to where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

Next, ULA launched another 27 Leo satellites for Amazon, its Atlas-5 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Amazon now has 181 satellites in orbit, with a requirement to get about 1,600 in orbit by July 2026 to meet its FCC license obligations. As it took about eight months to get those first 181 satellites into space (with SpaceX launching 72), Amazon’s three launch providers, ULA (42 launches), Arianespace (18 launches), and Blue Origin (27 launches), will have to ramp up their launch rate significantly to get even close to meeting those obligations in the next six months. There is also a question whether Amazon can manufacture enough satellites at a fast enough pace for those rockets.

As for the rocket, ULA now has only ten Atlas-5 rocket left in stock, with four reserved for Leo launches and six for Boeing’s Starliner manned capsule.

This was also ULA’s sixth launch in 2025. The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

166 SpaceX
84 China (a new record)
16 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 166 to 138.

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Updates on the status of two Mars missions, Maven and Escapade

7:59 pm

NASA today posted two separate updates on the status of two of its missions to or at Mars.

First, it appears there is an issue with one engine on one of the two Escapade orbiters on their way to their parking orbit where they will await the right moment to head to Mars.

During trajectory correction maneuvers for NASA’s twin ESCAPADE spacecraft on Dec. 8 and Dec. 12, the mission operations team noticed low thrust during the burn for one of the spacecraft. The team is working to identify the cause and will attempt a trajectory correction maneuver in the coming weeks.

The other spacecraft has successfully completed its two trajectory correction maneuvers, as planned. Both spacecraft are operating normally otherwise, and currently there are no long-term impacts from the trajectory correction delay.

While not the best news, this issue does not at this moment appear critical.

The second update however was even more negative. It appears engineers have not yet been able to re-establish contact and control of the Mars orbiter Maven.

To date, attempts to reestablish contact with the spacecraft have not been successful. Although no spacecraft telemetry has been received since Dec. 4, the team recovered a brief fragment of tracking data from Dec. 6 as part of an ongoing radio science campaign. Analysis of that signal suggests that the MAVEN spacecraft was rotating in an unexpected manner when it emerged from behind Mars. Further, the frequency of the tracking signal suggests MAVEN’s orbit trajectory may have changed. The team continues to analyze tracking data to understand the most likely scenarios leading to the loss of signal. Efforts to reestablish contact with MAVEN also continue.

It appears the loss of Maven is also impacting communications with the two Mars rovers Curiosity and Perseverance. While NASA has use of three orbiters at present, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and Europe’s Trace Gas Orbiter, to relay data from the ground to Earth, the loss of Maven reduces that communications network by 25%. Engineers are revising plans to make up some of the loss, but operations for both rovers will be for the time being reduced somewhat.

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An Impulse tug using Starfish equipment has successfully completed autonomous rendezvous maneuvers

9:42 am

Remora rendezvous
Images taken by Starfish’s camera.

A Mira orbital tug built by the startup Impulse Space has successfully completed rendezvous and proximity operations near a previously launched Mira tug, using software and equipment provided by the startup Starfish Space.

The Remora mission marked an industry first: a fully autonomous rendezvous executed by Starfish with a single lightweight camera system and closed-loop guidance, navigation and control software running on a peripheral flight computer.

Starfish and Impulse conducted the mission using Impulse’s Mira spacecraft that was flown on the Impulse LEO Express 2 mission. Starfish’s payloads enabled Mira to perform close-proximity maneuvers with another Impulse Mira spacecraft on orbit, which had been previously used for the LEO Express 1 mission. During operations in LEO, Starfish software autonomously controlled the LEO Express 2 Mira, guiding the satellite through a series of maneuvers which ultimately brought it to within approximately 1,250 meters of the LEO Express 1 Mira.

The significance of this test is its simplicity. Starfish has now demonstrated rendezvous technology that cubesats can use. Previously such precise maneuvers could only be done by larger satellites using more complex equipment. Starfish has orbital tug contracts using its own Otter tug, and will use this technology on those missions.

Impulse meanwhile demonstrated the maneuverability of its own Mira tug. And both companies demonstrated the ability to put this mission together quickly, in about nine months, and then launch it on a SpaceX rocket.

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SpaceX launches another 29 Starlink satellites

9:13 am

SpaceX last night successfully placed another 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 9th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

166 SpaceX (a new record)
83 China
16 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 166 to 136.

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Software issue forces Russia to delay Proton launch until next year

11:28 am

Because of a software issue detected once the rocket was arrived in Baikonur, Russia has been forced to delay one of its last Proton launches from next week until next year, with the new launch date undetermined.

[O]n Dec. 13, 2025, final checks revealed a problem in the Block DM-03 upper stage which forced to postpone the launch, Roskosmos announced. According to the Zakryty Kosmos Telegram channel, a software issue will require the return of the rocket back to the processing building and the disassembly of the payload section. The potential need to ship the onboard avionics back to the manufacturer would likely push the mission well into 2026.

Proton has largely been retired, though it appears it has some undetermined number of military and government launches left on its manifest. In 2023 there were discussions to restart its assembly line, but nothing since has been announced.

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Components for the first Ariane-6 Amazon’s Leo launch shipped to French Guiana

11:20 am

The components for the first Ariane-6 launch in its 18-launch contract with Amazon are now on their way by boat to French Guiana for a launch earlier in 2026.

Amazon’s low Earth orbit satellite network, Amazon Leo, reached another milestone this week as Arianespace’s hybrid industrial cargo ship, Canopée, departed from Bordeaux, France, transporting essential components of the Ariane 6 rocket for its first Amazon mission planned for early next year.

…Canopée’s voyage is supporting Amazon Leo’s inaugural mission on Ariane 64—an Ariane 6 variant featuring four additional boosters for maximum satellite launch capacity. The vessel will transport the rocket’s central core stage, upper stage, and other critical components on a weeks-long journey across the Atlantic to the European Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Once there, the components will undergo final assembly and integration in preparation for the LE-01 mission.

Though Ariane-6 has successfully launched four times, none of those versions were this most powerful version. The plan is for it to place in orbit 32 Leo satellites, some of which Amazon has already shipped to French Guiana.

Arianespace plans six Ariane-6 launches in 2026, though it is unclear how many of these launches will be for Amazon. Amazon, which has about 154 satellites in orbit, needs to get about 1,450 more launched by July to meet its FCC license obligations. Both ULA and Blue Origin say they will be ramping up their launch pace in 2026 to meet this need, but it remains unclear if all three rocket companies can get the job done on time.

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Vast opens Japanese office

11:06 am

As part of its recent push to establish links with as many foreign governments as possible, Vast announced earlier this week the opening of a new Japanese office, to be headed by a retired Japanese astronaut.

In November Vast announced preliminary agreements with Uzbekistan, the Maldives, and Columbia. This new office in Japan continues that trend. The company is clearly marketing its demonstration single module space station Haven-1 to these international customers. None have yet committed to a flight, but expect a lot of action once Haven-1 launches in the spring and is proven operational. The company wants to fly four 30-day manned missions to the module during its three year mission, and if launched successfully these international customers are likely to sign on for flights.

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The two American launches today set a new global annual launch record exceeding 300+

10:56 pm

Liberty enlightens the world
Now liberty is enlightening the solar system!

Two American companies today successfully completed launches from opposite sides of the globe, and in doing so set a new global benchmark for rocket launches in a single year.

First, Rocket Lab placed a Japanese technology test smallsat into orbit, its Electron rocket taking off from one of its two launchpads in New Zealand. The satelliite, dubbed Raise-4, was built by Japan’s space agency JAXA and carries eight different experimental payloads from a variety of academic and industry entities, including a test of a new solar sail design.

SpaceX then followed, launching another 27 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The first stage completed its 9th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

165 SpaceX (a new record)
83 China
16 Rocket Lab (a new record)
15 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 165 to 136.

More significantly, with these two launches the total number of successful orbital launches in 2025 has now exceeded 300, for a present total of 301. To put the spectacular nature of this number in perspective, until 2020 it was rare for the world to exceed 100 launches in a year, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. Most often, the total each year ranged between 50 to 80 launches.

Those numbers are now history, and it has been competition and freedom that has made all the difference.
» Read more

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China launches recoverable capsule; satellite launched two days ago just misses Starlink satellite

11:03 pm

Two Chinese launch-related stories tonight. First, one of the nine satellites launched on a Kinetica-3 rocket on December 10, 2025 apparently almost collided with a Starlink satellite after deployment in orbit.

As far as we know, no coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites operating in space was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between one of the deployed satellites and STARLINK-6079 (56120) at 560 km altitude.

The government-owned pseudo-company that launched the rocket, CAS Space, responded shortly thereafter.

Our team is currently in contact for more details. All CAS Space launches select their launch windows using the ground-based space awareness system to avoid collisions with known satellites/debris. This is a mandatory procedure. We will work on identifying the exact details and provide assistance as the LSP.

It is possible China did the proper due diligence but the large number of satellites in orbit as well as being launched simply makes these events increasingly likely. It is also possible CAS Space is lying, and it didn’t do a thorough analysis prior to launch. Either way, this incident should force it to do a better job in the future.

Next, China tonight (December 13, 2025 in China) continued its annual end-of-year ramp up of launches, placing the first Dear-5 recoverable capsule into orbit, its Kuaizhou-11 rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. This capsule is comparable to Russia’s Bion capsule, designed to be used for research in orbit for return to Earth for sale.

China’s state-run press made no mention where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

164 SpaceX
83 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 164 to 135.

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The beginnings of a planetary nebula

9:49 am

Calabash Nebula
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope back in 2017 but released this week by NASA’s PR department. It shows what astronomers have nicknamed the Calabash Nebula. From the Wikipedia page:

The Calabash Nebula, also known as the Rotten Egg Nebula or by its technical name OH 231.84 +4.22, is a protoplanetary nebula (PPN) 1.4 light years (13 Pm) long and located some 5,000 light years (47 Em) from Earth in the constellation Puppis. The name “Calabash Nebula” was first proposed in 1989 in an early paper on its expected nebular dynamics, based on the nebula’s appearance.[5] The Calabash is almost certainly a member of the open cluster Messier 46, as it has the same distance, radial velocity, and proper motion.[6] The central star is QX Puppis, a binary composed of a very cool Mira variable and an A-type main-sequence star.

The star in the center is an ancient red giant that is in the initial stages of dying. As it does so it periodically erupts, sending out jets of material from its poles. The result is this elongated shape. According to the release, “the gas shown in yellow is moving close to a million kilometers an hour.”

Over the next few thousand years these eruptions will shape the planetary nebula. Since the central star is actually a binary, those two stars will likely act like the blades in a mixer, adding more interesting forms to the material as it is shot out to form this nebula.

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Iraq and SpaceX close to signing Starlink deal

9:28 am

Meetings this week between SpaceX officials and the Iraqi government appear to have finalized an agreement that would allow Starlink to be marketed inside Iraq.

The meeting on Thursday concluded with discussions on “the final procedures related to granting satellite internet licenses, including the license designated for SpaceX, as well as avenues for strengthening cooperation in the telecommunications sector, the services provided by the company, and its prospective coverage areas,” the statement added.

It is not clear if the deal has been signed, or is simply written and still needs review. Based on the little information provided, it sounds as if SpaceX will be marketing its terminals directly to Iraqi citizens. I suspect however that some Iraqi government entity will demand a cut, and might even demand the right to do the marketing itself, as a number of other nations have done.

Regardless, Starlink continues to expand worldwide, and in doing so makes censorship increasingly difficult for the petty power-hungry thugs that run many of these third world nations. And when Amazon Leo begins operations, that censorship will become even more difficult.

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Avio to build $500 million rocket facility in Virginia

9:18 am

The Italian rocket company Avio has selected Virginia as the location where it will build a $500 million solid-fueled rocket facility as part of establishing its American-based division.

Italian rocket builder Avio has announced that it has selected the state of Virginia to build its planned US-based production facility. The $500 million project forms part of the company’s expansion of its defence business.

Avio founded its wholly owned US subsidiary, Avio USA, in 2022 to capitalise on a market opportunity created by constrained solid rocket motor production capacity relative to surging demand for tactical propulsion solutions. Since then, the company has signed contracts with the US Armed Forces, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin.

Avio presently builds the Vega-C solid-fueled rocket, which until this year was managed and controlled by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) commercial division, Arianespace. That arrangement however is ending. Beginning next year, Arianespace will be out of the picture. Avio is already marketing its own rocket, as indicated above, and as part of that process the company has been expanding operations, such as creating this U.S. division.

And for Avio this situation presents a great opportunity. The only company producing solid-fueled rockets and missiles in the U.S. appears to be Northrop Grumman, and the lack of competition has made its rockets expensive. There is room for competition. Moreover, the decisions of the Biden administration to provide the Ukraine a very large percentage of the Pentagon’s missile stock means there is a big need to replenish those stocks.

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Turkey begins construction of spaceport in Somalia

9:07 am

Somalia

According to statements by one Turkish official this week, his nation has begun building its own spaceport on the southeast coast of Somalia at a location not yet specified.

Türkiye has begun construction of a space launch facility in Somalia, marking the country’s entry into an exclusive group of nations with oceanside spaceports, Board Chairman of Baykar Selcuk Bayraktar announced on Thursday. “Türkiye now has a space launch station. Normally, you need to be by the ocean. Türkiye has a 30 kilometer by 30 kilometer area in Somalia,” Bayraktar said during a panel at Take Off İstanbul 2025. “When you have oceanside access, you can deploy launch vehicles, meaning you have a spaceport. There are 12 such places in the world. Because Somalia is part of our heartland geography, there will be a space station there,” he noted.

This plan has been in the works since earlier this year, though few real details (such as its specific location) have not been released. It appears however that Turkey wants to use it to test both ballistic missiles and eventually launch orbital rockets. The location on the coast will permit test flights of bigger missiles that Turkey cannot do from its present test sites inside Turkey.

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China launches nine more Guowang internet-of-things satellites

8:56 pm

China today successfully launched another nine internet-of-things satellites for the Guowang (or SatNet) constellation, its Long March 12 rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport.

China’s state-run press did not reveal the number of satellites, but the previous three Long March 12 launches that carried Guowang satellites all launched nine, so I think it is safe to assume nine launched today as well. This was the sixteenth launch for this constellation, which now has about 119 satellites in orbit, with a planned 13,000 once complete.

The Long March 12 is expendable. Though the launch proceeded over the ocean, one drop zone for the rocket’s lower stages was in the Philippines, where authorities warned its citizens to avoid those zones and to exercise caution if they see any likely rocket debris.

An upgraded version, the Long March 12A, with a first stage designed to land vertically and be reused, is scheduled to launch sometime in the next two weeks.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

164 SpaceX
82 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 164 to 134.

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Scientists posit that Neptune and Uranus might be rockier than previously theorized

12:35 pm

Scientists doing new computer modeling of the known data now posit that Neptune and Uranus might not be as icy as previously believed and instead could be more like the inner terrestrial planets like Earth, much rockier in their interior.

According to the work carried by the UZH scientific team, Uranus and Neptune might actually be more rocky than icy. The new study does not claim the two blue planets to be one or the other type, water- or rock- rich, it rather challenges that ice-rich is the only possibility. This interpretation is also consistent with the discovery that the dwarf planet Pluto is rock-dominated in composition.

…With their new agnostic, and yet fully physical model, the University of Zurich team found the potential internal composition of the “ice giants” of our Solar system, is not limited at all to only ice (typically represented by water). “It is something that we first suggested nearly 15 years ago, and now we have the numerical framework to demonstrate it,” reveals Ravit Helled, a professor at the University of Zurich and initiator of the project. The new range of internal composition shows that both planets can either be water-rich or rock-rich.

This new hypothesis might also help explain the multi-polar magnetic fields of both planets.

All is uncertain of course, as this is just a computer model based on limited data. Nor is it a surprise that an alternative conclusion appears to work. We know so little about these distant worlds that it is likely that multiple theories could fit the data, and all could be wrong when we finally learn more.

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French startup The Exploration Company now building an in-orbit servicing spacecraft

12:28 pm

The French startup The Exploration Company, which has been developing an unmanned cargo spacecraft called Nyx to supply the commercial space stations under development, has now also gotten funds from the European Space Agency (ESA) to build an in-orbit spacecraft designed to provide refueling and servicing capabilities as well.

More information here.

In a 25 November update on its progress with an ESA-funded project, the company revealed that it is also working on a spacecraft called Oura, designed to refuel satellites in orbit, thereby extending their operational lifespan.

…As part of the 25 November update, the company announced that it had been awarded a Phase B2 contract for the InSPoC-1 programme. The Phase B2 development of the project will include activities up to Technology Readiness Level 6, which represents the development of a prototype and its demonstration in a relevant environment.

Once again, this contract from ESA is radically different than its past policy of building and owning everything itself. Instead, it is hiring this French company to develop this capability, which this French company will then own and be able to sell for profits to others.

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Scientists map the outside edge of the Sun’s atmosphere

12:22 pm

The mapping of the Sun's atmosphere

Using multiple solar observatories in space, scientists have now been able to map the approximate location of the outside edge of the Sun’s atmosphere, the point “where the speed of the outward solar wind becomes faster than the speed of magnetic waves.”

The panels to the right are a sampling of that mapping, and is figure 3 of the peer-reviewed paper [pdf]. The bulk of the data (black) comes from five spacecraft observing the Sun from the L1 point a million miles from Earth. The blue line is data from Solar Orbiter, while the red line is data from the Parker Solar Probe. From the press release:

Astronomers have produced the first continuous, two-dimensional maps of the outer edge of the Sun’s atmosphere, a shifting, frothy boundary that marks where solar winds escape the Sun’s magnetic grasp. By combining the maps and close-up measurements, scientists from the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian (CfA) showed that the boundary grows larger, rougher and spikier as the Sun becomes more active.

…The boundary in the Sun’s atmosphere where the solar wind’s outward speed becomes faster than the speed of magnetic waves, known as the Alfvén surface, is the “point of no return” for material that escapes the Sun and enters interplanetary space; once material travels beyond this point, it cannot travel back to the Sun. This surface is the effective “edge” of the Sun’s atmosphere, and provides scientists with an active laboratory for studying and understanding how solar activity impacts the rest of the solar system, including life and technology on and around Earth.

This new data further refines the nature of the boundary, as earlier probes had already given scientists a rough idea of its size and nature.

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Pentagon decides New Glenn must fly four times before its certifies it for military launches

11:33 am

Pentagon officials yesterday announced that before it will certify Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket for commercial military payloads, it must complete two more successful orbital launches, for a total of four flights.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket will have to complete four successful orbital flights as its pathway to certification under the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant said Dec. 10 at the Spacepower conference. Garrant, who leads the Space Systems Command, said Blue Origin selected the four-flight benchmark and the government agreed. “The government is supporting a four-flight certification for New Glenn,” he told reporters. The rocket has logged two successful missions so far, and Garrant said a third launch is expected “earlier in the new year than later.” If upcoming flights stay on track, he added, “I think they’re going to be in a fantastic place to become our third certified provider and compete for missions.”

If certified, Blue Origin would join SpaceX and United Launch Alliance as the Space Force’s third heavy-lift launch provider.

It is surprising that the military is requiring four successful flights from Blue Origin, but required only two from ULA’s new Vulcan rocket, and certified that even though there were problems on Vulcan’s second flight.

These extra flights should not cause a significant delay, since Blue Origin is expecting to complete a number of launches in 2026 to meet its obligations under its Amazon Leo contract

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Abstract art produced by nature within Mars’ north pole ice cap

1:17 pm

Abstract art created by nature on Mars
Click for original

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, sharpened, and annotated to post here, was taken on October 27, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I have also rotate the image so that north is to the top.

The science team labels this “Exposure of North Polar Layered Deposits,” an apt description of the horizontal red and grey and blue layers that dominate the image and make this geology look more like an abstract painting than a natural landscape. What we are actually looking at is a canyon 800-to-1,200 feet deep within the north polar ice cap of Mars.

The picture was taken in the summer with the Sun about 12 degrees above the horizon to the south. Thus, the northern cliff face is illuminated, revealing its many colored layers, while the south face is mostly in shadow, hiding those layers.
» Read more

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Chinese astronauts complete spacewalk inspecting damaged Shenzhou capsule

12:53 pm

Two Chinese astronauts yesterday completed their first spacewalk since arriving on China’s Tiangong-3 space station, during which they inspected the damaged viewport on the Shenzhou-20 capsule as well as installed a cover to protective that damage when the capsule returns to Earth.

Shenzhou-21 mission commander Zhang Lu and rookie crewmate Wu Fei began an extravehicular activity (EVA) at 9:28 p.m. Eastern, Dec. 8 (0228 UTC, Dec. 9), when Zhang opened the Wentian experiment module airlock hatch and exited the Tiangong space station.

The more than eight-hour EVA concluded at 5:42 a.m. Eastern (1042 UTC) Dec. 9, with the pair safely back inside Tiangong. Zhang and Wu, wearing Feitian EVA suits with red and blue markings respectively, were assisted by the space station’s robotic arm, crewmate Zhang Hongzhang from inside Tiangong, and teams in mission control. New, upgraded Feitian suits were delivered to Tiangong via the July Tianzhou-9 cargo mission.

The first series of tasks centered on the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft, the return module of which suffered a suspected debris impact to a viewport window, rendering the spacecraft unsafe to return its three-astronaut crew to Earth in early November. At around 12:19 a.m. Eastern, Zhang Lu approached the viewport window of the Shenzhou-20 return module while attached to the Tiandong robotic arm and photographed and assessed the damage.

China has said that the damage was caused by a millimeter-sized object that impacted at high speed. It has yet however to release any images of the damage, and provided no other details.

Thus, we still do not know the damage’s exact nature, other than what that state-run press has told us. It could very well be that this damage was caused by some other factor that China does not wish to reveal.

NOTE: This is a recreation of a post published on December 10, 2025 that was lost during this morning’s server outage.

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Unconfirmed anonymous sources at Reuters and Bloomberg claim SpaceX is planning a public stock offering

12:46 pm

Two stories from Reuters and Bloomberg yesterday suggest Elon Musk is considering making SpaceX a publicly traded company, with an initial stock offering sometime in 2026. From the Reuters’ report:

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is looking to raise more than $25 billion through an initial public offering in 2026, a move that could boost the rocket-maker’s valuation to over $1 trillion, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. The company’s move towards a public listing, which could rank among the largest global IPOs, has been largely driven by the rapid expansion of its Starlink satellite internet business, including plans for direct-to-mobile service and progress in its Starship rocket program for moon and Mars missions.

SpaceX has started discussions with banks about launching the offering around June or July, the person said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential information.

Since both stories rely entirely on anonymous sources, we should not take either very seriously. I only post this now merely to put it on the record. And though Elon Musk has since hinted there might be some truth to both, he has also been very vague about his plans. While a public offering would garner him a lot of cash, it would bring with it a lot of regulatory headaches that would seriously interfere with what he wants to do. In the end I think (and hope) he will decide it ain’t worth it. Starlink right now is bringing in enough money to allow him to accomplish everything, and more.

If anything, these stories illustrate again the corruption in our modern propaganda press. Such stories would have been considered junk four decades ago. Then it was traditional practice that a story needed at least two independent sources, one of which was not anonymous. No longer. Anyone can push any lie, and these news outlets will publicize it, for the sake of clicks.

NOTE: This is a recreation of a post published on December 10, 2025 that was lost during this morning’s server outage.

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Engineers lose contact with Mars orbiter Maven

8:48 am

NASA announced late yesterday that the engineering team running the Maven Mars orbiter lost contact with the spacecraft on December 6, 2025, and are still trying to figure out what happened and regain communications.

NASA’s MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) spacecraft, in orbit around Mars, experienced a loss of signal with ground stations on Earth on Dec. 6. Telemetry from MAVEN had showed all subsystems working normally before it orbited behind the Red Planet. After the spacecraft emerged from behind Mars, NASA’s Deep Space Network did not observe a signal.

The spacecraft and operations teams are investigating the anomaly to address the situation. More information will be shared once it becomes available.

No other information was released.

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SpaceX completes its 11th launch this year for the National Reconnaissance Office

1:46 pm

SpaceX today successfully placed its 11th payload into orbit this year for the National Reconnaissance Office, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral. The rocket’s two fairings were both new, flying their first mission.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

162 SpaceX (a new record)
79 China
15 Rocket Lab
15 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 162 to 131.

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Academia makes its first comprehensive attempt to plan science missions to Mars using Starship

1:28 pm

Figure 2-2 from the NAS report
Figure 2-2 from the National Academies
of Science report

A new report released today by the National Academies of Science, entitled “Highest Priority Science for the First Human Missions to Mars,” is essentially the first attempt by the planetary science community to plan its future science missions to Mars using the gigantic capabilities that SpaceX’s Starship is expected to provide them.

You can download the report here.

Even though the report made the search for life on Mars its big priority — a bugaboo that NASA and the science community trots out repeatedly to garner clicks from the ignorant propaganda press — this report is radically different then all previous similar NASA studies proposing future Mars exploration, as indicated by the graphics from figure 2-2 of the report to the right. Unlike those past studies, which were badly limited by the inadequate capabilities of any spacecraft NASA could send to Mars, this new report recognizes how much the game is changed by SpaceX’s Starship.

First, the new panel did not attempt to place any limit on any landing zones. Earlier reports had forbidden landings in the high latitudes or high altitudes because of the risks to NASA’s proposed landers. Starship overcomes much of those risks, giving researchers much greater flexibility.

Second, the focus of the missions will not be solely devoted to scientific or geological research, as had been the case for all previous similar reports by NASA and the academic community. Instead, the proposed research goals includes important engineering and human exploration requirements outside of science, including efforts to use the resources on Mars itself as well as find locations better suited for human habitation. Once again, the vastly greater capabilities of Starship influenced this change.

Even more important, the study doesn’t assume the future missions will be unmanned, as all previous NASA reports have done. In fact, it does the opposite, proposing multiple 30-day manned missions, as shown in the graphic. One set of three missions would go to three different locations, while another set of three missions would focus on one place in particular.

Much of this shift towards manned flight I think stemmed from the presence on the panel of representatives from the private companies SpaceX and The Exploration Company (a French startup), as well as an engineer from the National Academy of Engineering. Previously studies were almost always entirely dominated by planetary scientists, so the goals outlined were always focused on their interests. Now the idea of human exploration has become prevalent.

The panel’s work was clearly also influenced by the realization that SpaceX’s Starship is not only far more capable, its first flights are just around the corner. SpaceX plans sending it numerous times to Mars in the very near future, as shown in the graphic below that Elon Musk released during a presentation in May 2025.
» Read more

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New data detects potassium and chlorine in Cassiopeia supernova remnant

11:30 am

The Cassiopeia supernova remnant
Click for original.

Using the Japanese orbiting XRISM space telescope, astronomers have now detected evidence of both potassium and chlorine in the ancient Cassiopeia supernova remnant.

The picture to the right, reduced to post here, shows the evidence for potassium in the remnant, overlaid onto an image of Cassiopeia produced by combining data from X-ray data from Chandra, infrared data from Webb, and optical data from Hubble. The green grid boxes indicate strong evidence of potassium, while the yellow grid boxes indicate weaker evidence.

The roughly circular Cas A supernova remnant spans about 10 light-years, is over 340 years old, and has a superdense neutron star at its center — the remains of the original star’s core. Scientists using NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory had previously identified signatures of iron, silicon, sulfur, and other elements within Cas A.

In the hunt for other elements, the team used the Resolve instrument aboard XRISM to look at the remnant twice in December 2023. The researchers were able to pick out the signatures for chlorine and potassium, determining that the remnant contains ratios much higher than expected. Resolve also detected a possible indication of phosphorous, which was previously discovered in Cas A by infrared missions.

The orientation and position of these grid boxes on the face of the expanding supernova remnant suggest the original star and explosion might have formed unevenly.

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Nova explosions appear to have multiple slow and fast explosive outflows

10:46 am

Nova
Click for original.

According to new observations of two different recent nova events have shown that the star’s eruption is complex, with multiple outflows moving at both fast and slow speeds.

The graphic and images to the right come from figure 1 of the paper, and show the evolution of one of these novae, Nova V1674 Herculis. The initial slow flow along the star’s equator, indicated at the top, acts to force the later fast flow to move out along the star’s poles, as shown at the bottom. From the paper’s abstract:

The images of the very fast 2021 nova V1674 Her, taken just 2–3 days after discovery, reveal the presence of two perpendicular outflows. The interaction between these outflows probably drives the observed γ-ray emission. Conversely, the images of the very slow 2021 nova V1405 Cas suggest that the bulk of the accreted envelope was ejected more than 50 days after the eruption began, as the nova slowly rose to its visible peak, during which the envelope engulfed the system in a common-envelope phase. These images offer direct observational evidence that the mechanisms driving mass ejection from the surfaces of accreting white dwarfs are not as simple as previously thought, revealing multiple outflows and delayed ejections.

Novae are stellar explosions of a much smaller scale than supernovae, and occur when a white dwarf star gathers enough material on its surface stolen from a binary star companion for that material to go critical. Because the stars are binaries, with some systems this process is periodic.

That these better observations, including good high resolution visuals, reveal the explosions are more complicated than “previously thought” should not be a surprise to anyone. In fact, to even suggest that anyone expected the process to be simply is absurd. Whenever we get a better view we discover new details that increase the complexity of any phenomenon.

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Three astronauts return from ISS in Soyuz capsule

9:09 am

Early today one American and two Russians safely returned to Earth, their Soyuz capsule touching down on the plains of Kazakhstan after spending more than eight months on ISS.

NASA astronaut Jonny Kim returned to Earth on Tuesday alongside Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergey Ryzhikov and Alexey Zubritsky, wrapping up an eight-month science mission aboard the International Space Station to benefit life on Earth and future space exploration. They made a safe, parachute-assisted landing at 12:03 a.m. EST (10:03 a.m. local time), southeast of Dzhezkazgan, Kazakhstan, after departing the space station at 8:41 p.m. on Dec. 8, aboard the Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft.

Over the course of 245 days in space, the crew orbited Earth 3,920 times, traveling nearly 104 million miles. They launched to the space station on April 8. This mission marked the first spaceflight for both Kim and Zubritsky, while Ryzhikov completed his third journey to space, logging a total of 603 days in space.

There remains on ISS one Soyuz, with its crew of three, with a planned return in July 2026. Getting its replacement crew launched however remains an unknown right now because of the damage to the Soyuz-2 rocket launchpad in Baikonur that occurred when they were launched two weeks ago. Roscosmos has provided no public updates about its plans to fix the pad or replace it, and until such plans are revealed, the Russians have no ability to launch any further manned missions.

This is why I speculated earlier that the present Soyuz crew might be starting an extended mission, awaiting repairs to the launchpad.

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