Tag: spaceflight

Why this place in Valles Marineris is NOT a good place to establish trails and inns

11:57 am

Overview map

North rim and the top of the trail
Click for original image.

In my cool image yesterday I highlighted a location along the north rim of the gigantic Valles Marineris canyon on Mars that appeared a great place to establish a hiking trail. The trail would take hikers down from the rim to the floor of the canyon, a distance of more than 20 miles with an elevation loss of more than 31,000 feet, more than the height of Mount Everest. The image to the right shows the top of that trail, at the rim. The white dot on the overview map above shows its location in Valles Marineris.

Because of the trail’s length I also suggested that future colonists would likely set up inns along the way, so that hikers would have places to stay as they worked their way downhill day-by-day.

There is however one major reason not to build at this particular location, and it involves the most significant geological detail I noticed in the picture to the right. Note the arrows in both this image as well as the inset above. In the picture they mark a sudden drop paralleling the rim. In the inset they also show a series of parallel cracks further north.

The cliff and the cracks suggest that the entire cliff of this part of the north rim has subsided, and is in fact beginning to separate from the plateau, and will soon (in geological terms) collapse into a spectacular avalanche. If you look at the cliff face in the inset you can see two extended outflow piles that apparently came from smaller earlier such collapses.

Could this entire cliff face, the size of Mount Everest, actually separate and crash into the canyon? If you have doubts, then take a look at the image below.
» Read more

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Eutelsat-OneWeb stock plummets

10:02 am

Despite its merger with Eutelsat in 2023, the stock value of the combined Eutelsat-OneWeb satellite company has plummeted in the past year, more than halving the value of the OneWeb portion that was saved from bankruptcy by both the government of the United Kingdom and investors from India in 2020.

The collapse means the UK’s investment is worth €133m (£110m), representing a near £300m paper loss for the taxpayer. … However, while the all-share deal implied a value of €12 per share, Eutelsat’s stock has since imploded. In the past 12 months, it has halved and is trading at record lows of €2.58.

Eutelsat was facing its own collapse before the merger, as its business was geosynchronous communications satellites which are now losing their business to the low-Earth orbit constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlab and OneWeb’s. The merger was the company’s attempt to join this new market.

OneWeb however has had its own repeated problems completing that its constellation, and faced bankruptcy in 2020 because of delays from the COVID panic as well as delays in launching the Ariane-6 rocket. Then Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine in 2022 meant it lost all its remaining planned launches, forcing it to scramble to find other launch providers.

Stock market analysts don’t expect the combined company to begin earning profits for at least the next three to five years, which casts an even greater pall on its future.

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Parker probe phones home, signalling it has successfully survived its record-breaking closest approach to the Sun

9:42 am

Parker flight plan
The flight plan for Parker. Click for original.

NASA today reported that it has received a signal from the Parker Solar Probe, indicating all of its systems are in good health following its record-breaking closest approach to the Sun on December 24, 2024.

The mission operations team at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland received the signal just before midnight EST, on the night of Dec. 26. The team was out of contact with the spacecraft during closest approach, which occurred on Dec. 24, with Parker Solar Probe zipping just 3.8 million miles from the solar surface while moving about 430,000 miles per hour.

Not only was this the closest any human-built object has gotten to the Sun, it was the fastest any human-built object has ever traveled.

This close fly-by was Parker’s 22nd of the Sun since launch. In its nominal mission it plans to do two more close approaches as shown in the graphic to the right, both of which will be comparable to the record just set.

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Chinese solid-fueled rocket fails during launch

9:26 am

The commercial division of a Chinese space agency, dubbed CAS Space, late yesterday experienced a launch failure of its solid-fueled Kinetica-1 rocket, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

A statement by the pseudo-company described the failure tersely:

We can confirm that the first two stages were nominal. Stage 3 lost attitude three seconds after ignition and the self-destructing mechanism was activated.

Nothing was said about where the first two stages crashed inside China, or whether they landed near habitable areas.

According to the first link above, this was the second launch failure by China in 2024, which is incorrect. This was the third launch failure for China (see here and here for previous two). That article also says this was the 68th total launch this year, suggesting China has completed 66 successful launches. This does not jive with my count, which presently says China has had 64 successful orbital launches this year. I suspect the two additional launched might have been suborbital tests — such as first stage hop tests (here, here, and here) — which I do not include in these totals. It also might be including the accidental launch of one first stage during a static fire test when it broke free and launched itself unintentional.

The leader board for the 2024 launch race remains unchanged:

134 SpaceX
64 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

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Just one of many potential hiking trails down into Valles Marineris

12:10 pm

Overview map

Just one of many potential trails into Valles Marineris
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 15, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The white dot on the overview map above shows the location, on the northern interior wall of the vast Valles Marineris canyon on Mars.

As my readers know, I tend to look at the spectacular Martian photos coming back from the orbiters and rovers as much from a tourist perspective as that of a scientist. Thus, for this picture, my first thought was to consider the possibility of a trail weaving its way down the nose of that ridgeline and into the canyon. In the Grand Canyon such ridgelines often provide a route down where walking is possible the entire way, with no need for climbing or ropes.

To illustrate my thought, I have indicated the potential trail with the white line. All told this trail covers about 7.2 miles, and drops 12,500 feet. Such a drop is very steep for trails on Earth, with an average grade of 14 degrees and about three times the grade considered reasonable. On Mars, however, with its one-third gravity, I think a grade this steep would be reasonable, though certainly daunting mentally. You would not only be descending on a very steep slope, you would be doing so on the peak of this ridge, with drops of one to two thousand feet on either side.

Amazingly, the inset on the overview map shows that this trail gets you less than halfway to the bottom. All told, the drop from canyon rim to floor at this location is about 31,000 feet over 20 miles, a drop that is greater than climbing down from the top of Mount Everest. If I was to install a trail here I’d also build an inn or two along the way as rest stops for hikers.

What the trail would do is get you to the bottom of this particular ridgeline. From here the trail would have to drop off into the western hollow and from then on descend on top of its alluvial fill. The slope would be as steep, but it would be possible to alleviate that by putting in switchbacks. This would lower the grade, but increase the distance traveled significantly.

Geologically, this image shows to my eye one particular feature that is quite significant, at the rim. I will discuss this tomorrow, in my next cool image.

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Russia launches earth resources satellite

9:53 am

Russia today successfully launched the last in a five-satellite constellation of satellites focused on mapping Earth resources, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The rocket’s core stage and four side boosters fell into frequently-used drop zones in Kazakhstan and Russia.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
64 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

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Repost: The real meaning of the Apollo 8 Earthrise image

1:56 pm

I wrote this essay in 2018, to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the Apollo 8 mission to the Moon. I have reposted previously, but I think it is worth reposting again and again, especially because stories about Apollo 8 still refuse to show the Earthrise image as Bill Anders took it. Even today, the Air and Space Museum did it wrong again, and it seems to me to be a slap in the face of Anders himself, who died this year while flying.
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Earthrise, as seen by a space-farer
Earthrise, as seen by a space-farer

Today is the fiftieth anniversary of the moment when the three astronauts on Apollo 8 witnessed their first Earthrise while in orbit around the Moon, and Bill Anders snapped the picture of that Earthrise that has been been called “the most influential environmental picture ever taken.”

The last few days have seen numerous articles celebrating this iconic image. While all have captured in varying degrees the significance and influence of that picture on human society on Earth, all have failed to depict this image as Bill Anders, the photographer, took it. He did not frame the shot, in his mind, with the horizon on the bottom of the frame, as it has been depicted repeatedly in practically every article about this image, since the day it was published back in 1968.

Instead, Anders saw himself as an spaceman in a capsule orbiting the waist of the Moon. He also saw the Earth as merely another space object, now appearing from behind the waist of that Moon. As a result, he framed the shot with the horizon to the right, with the Earth moving from right to left as it moved out from behind the Moon, as shown on the right.

His perspective was that of a spacefarer, an explorer of the universe that sees the planets around him as objects within that universe in which he floats.

When we here are on Earth frame the image with the horizon on the bottom, we immediately reveal our limited planet-bound perspective. We automatically see ourselves on a planet’s surface, watching another planet rise above the distant horizon line.

This difference in perspective is to me the real meaning of this picture. On one hand we see the perspective of the past. On the other we see the perspective the future, for as long humanity can remain alive.

I prefer the future perspective, which is why I framed this image on the cover of Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 the way Bill Anders took it. I prefer to align myself with that space-faring future.

And it was that space-faring future that spoke when they read from Genesis that evening. They had made the first human leap to another world, and they wished to describe and capture the majesty of that leap to the world. They succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

Yet, they were also still mostly Earth-bound in mind, which is why Frank Borman’s concluding words during that Christmas eve telecast were so heartfelt. He was a spaceman in a delicate vehicle talking to his home of Earth, 240,000 miles away. “And from the crew of Apollo 8, we close with good night, good luck, a Merry Christmas, and God bless all of you — all of you on the good Earth.” They longed deeply to return, a wish that at that moment, in that vehicle, was quite reasonable.

Someday that desire to return to Earth will be gone. People will live and work and grow up in space, and see the Earth as Bill Anders saw it in his photograph fifty years ago.

And it is for that time that I long. It will be a future of majesty we can only imagine.

Merry Christmas to all, all of us still pinned down here on “the good Earth.”

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A Martian river of sand

11:33 am

Overview map

A Martian river of sand

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on July 26, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The red dot in the overview map above marks the location, within the western reaches of the vast Martian canyon dubbed Valles Marineris.

The picture looks at the flow of dust and sand going down the canyon’s southern rim, with particular focus on the central canyon in the picture’s center. The photo was taken as part of a long-term project, begun in 2020 to monitor this river of sand to see if any changes occur over time. Clearly the sand is flowing downhill, almost like a river, with the dunes almost resembling waves. The geological issue is to determine how fast. Based on the resolution available to me, it is impossible to tell it there have been any changes in the past four years, but the full MRO dataset might reveal more information.

To get an idea of scale, the elevation loss from the top to the bottom in this picture is about 6,000 feet. While this seems like a substantial amount, it pales when placed in the context of Valles Marineris. For example, the elevation loss for the canyon’s northern wall is about 25,400 feet, making that wall exceed in height most of the mountains in the Himalayas. And that wall extends for more than 1,500 miles.

Valles Marineris’ southern wall is more complex. It rises about 18,000 feet from the floor of the canyon to the top of the peak on which this slope sits, but then drops 6,700 feet into a parallel side canyon. From there the rise to the southern rim is about 11,000 feet. All told the southern rim sits about 23,000 feet above the canyon floor, once again a drop that would exceed most mountains on Earth.

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Using Hubble to monitor a fading supernova

9:38 am

Barred spiral
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope as part of a monitoring program of the fading supernova that occurred in this galaxy in 2014, 60 million light years away. I have added a white dot to indicate the approximate location [pdf] of that supernova, as it is now too dim to see clearly in the original image. From the caption:

Researchers have determined that SN 2014cx was a Type IIP supernova. The “Type II” classification means that the exploding star was a supergiant at least eight times as massive as the Sun. The “P” stands for plateau, meaning that after the light from the supernova began to fade, the level reached a plateau, remaining at the same brightness for several weeks or months before fading further. This type of supernova occurs when a massive star can no longer produce enough energy in its core to stave off the crushing pressure of gravity. SN 2014cx’s progenitor star is estimated to have been ten times more massive than the Sun and hundreds of times as wide. Though it has long since dimmed from its initial brilliance, researchers are still keeping tabs on this exploded star, not least through the Hubble observing programme which produced this image.

The blue regions in the galaxy’s periphery suggest younger stars, while the gold color in the interior suggests an older population.

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Dubai-based AI/3D printing company successfully test fires an aerospike engine

9:15 am

LEAP71's aerospike test engine
Click for original image.

The Dubai-based startup LEAP71, focused on using AI software to quickly develop rocket engine designs it can then 3D print, has successfully test fired a prototype aerospike engine on December 18, 2024 during a static fire test campaign conducted in the United Kingdom.

Aerospikes are more compact and significantly more efficient across various atmospheric pressures, including the vacuum of space. They forego the conventional bell-shaped nozzle by placing a spike in the center of a toroidal combustion chamber [as shown in the photo to the right]. Since it is surrounded by 3,500ºC hot exhaust gas, cooling the spike is an enormous challenge.

Josefine Lissner, CEO and Co-Founder of LEAP 71, stated: “We were able to extend Noyron’s physics to deal with the unique complexity of this engine type. The spike is cooled by intricate cooling channels flooded by cryogenic oxygen, whereas the outside of the chamber is cooled by the kerosene fuel. I am very encouraged by the results of this test, as virtually everything on the engine was novel and untested. It’s a great validation of our physics-driven approach to computational AI.”

The spike in the center acts as one wall of the nozzle, and the changing pressure of the atmosphere acting as the other side of the nozzle, allowing the nozzle size to change as the rocket rises, thus making its thrust as efficient as possible.

This test was apparently with a small scale prototype, not a full scale engine. LEAP71 engineers are going to have to go though a lot more iterations using their AI software and 3D printing to get to a version usable on a rocket. The company claims that development will go far faster this way. That this company did its testing in the UK but is based in Dubai suggests its capital comes from that Middle Eastern country, which is trying to develop a space industry of its own, but it is mainly relying on British designers — at this point — to get things done.

It will have to do so quickly, since another startup, German-based Polaris Spaceplanes, in November 2024 actually completed the first test flight ever of a prototype using an aerospike engine.

After decades of speculation about the advantages of an aerospike engine but no successful flights, we now have a race between two companies to be the first to fly one, and the effort is going on in Europe.

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SpaceX launches 21 Starlink satellites

10:44 pm

SpaceX tonight successfully launched 21 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Kennedy in Florida. Thirteen of the satellites were configured for direct-to-cell capabilities.

The first stage completed its fourteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
64 China
16 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 96, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 116.

Tonight’s launch was also the 250th worldwide in 2024, a record that approximately triples the average number of successful launches each year from 1957 to 2017, when SpaceX and China began to ramp up their launch counts.

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NASA awards four companies contracts to provide communications for operations in Earth orbit

11:30 am

Capitalism in space: Rather than continue to build its own constellation of communications satellites, NASA yesterday awarded four companies contracts to provide that service to the agency’s many Earth orbit operations.

The work will be awarded under new Near Space Network services contracts that are firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts. Project timelines span from February 2025 to September 2029, with an additional five-year option period that could extend a contract through Sept. 30, 2034. The cumulative maximum value of all Near Space Network Services contracts is $4.82 billion.

The companies are Intuitive Machines, SSC Space, Viasat (based in Georgia), and the Norwegian company Kongsberg Satellite services.

Not only will these companies provide a better service faster and at less cost than the NASA TDRS satellite constellation, that there are four of them provides redundancy as well as fosters competition.

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Defunct Pentagon weather satellite breaks up

10:40 am

According to the Space Force as well as two commercial space tracking companies, a defunct military weather satellite launched in 1997 has broken up into more than fifty pieces.

The satellite, dubbed DMSP-5D2 F14, was in a sun-synchronous orbit over the poles. What makes the break-up significant is that it is not the first of this design of weather satellites to do so.

DMSP-5D2 F14 is part of a family of spacecraft that have suffered breakups in orbit. The F12 satellite broke up in October 2016, following the breakup of F13 in February 2015. In 2004, the F11 spacecraft broke up, creating 56 pieces of tracked debris. All the satellites had a battery assembly with a design flaw that made them vulnerable to explosion.

A similar spacecraft design was used for a line of civilian polar-orbiting weather satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The NOAA-16 satellite broke up in November 2015, followed by NOAA-17 in March 2021.

Overall the military launched nine satellites of this design, while NOAA launched three. Of these twelve satellites six have now broken apart. We should expect a large percentage of the remaining six to also break up.

This story explains why in the last ten years a number of companies have appeared attempting to develop the technology to remove space junk. There is a desperate need in the satellite industry for this capability, and those space junk companies are aiming to make profit from this need.

Note I do not expect or want the government to take the lead in this. This issue is mostly a need of the satellite industry, of which the world’s governments are merely just one more participant. This industry should band together to set up a fund to pay for this work, with those governments joining as just one more partner.

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Liechtenstein signs the Artemis Accords

10:16 am

The tiny nation of Liechtenstein in Europe yesterday became the 52nd nation to sign the Artemis Accords.

The full list of nations now part of this American space alliance: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

There has been a flurry of new nations signing the accords since the November election of Trump. I suspect his coming encouraged these nations to sign, knowing the moribund leadership of Biden will soon be replaced with something more robust. It is also likely that these nations see a renewal of Trump’s original goals for the Artemis Accords, to create an international alliance, led by the United States, with the goal of overcoming the Outer Space Treaty’s limitations on private property.

I hope this turns out to be true. This alliance gives Trump a powerful lobby he can wield to force change.

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SpaceX and Rocket Lab complete two launches overnight

10:04 am

Though one SpaceX launch early last night had a launch abort, both SpaceX and Rocket Lab completed additional launches later in the evening.

First, SpaceX completed its second Bandwagon in which 30 payloads were sent to mid-inclination orbits, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage flew its twenty-first flight, landing successfully back its landing site at Vandenberg. The two fairings completed their 14th and 18th flights.

Next, Rocket Lab completed its sixth launch of sixteen for the commercial satellite company Synspective, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of its two launchpads in New Zealand. This was the 14th successful launch for Rocket Lab in 2024, a significant increase from the nine and eight launches it flew in 2022 and 2023.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

133 SpaceX
64 China
16 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 153 to 96, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 133 to 116.

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SpaceX experiences a launch abort at T-0

10:29 pm

During a launch attempt tonight from Cape Canaveral in Florida, SpaceX experienced a launch abort at T-0 seconds for reasons that have not yet been determined but apparently were complex enough that mission control decided to scrub for the evening. No new launch has been scheduled as yet.

The launch was to have placed four smallsats into geosynchronous orbit. The satellites were built by the satellite company Astranis, which appears to be the first to launch smallsats to geosynchronous orbit. It had already placed one in orbit, and these four satellites expand its constellation.

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China launches a communications test satellite

3:36 pm

According to China’s uninformative state-run press, it today launched “a test satellite for communication technology,” its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.

No other details about the satellite were released. Nor did the state-run press provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuel, crashed inside China.

As is usual for China, it is doing a lot of launches at the end of the year. Though weather might be a factor, I also suspect it is the ordinary “use-it-or-lose-it” symptom of a government-run communist society. Budgets are set for the year. Government agencies find that they better launch or they will lose that budgeted amount in the next year’s budget.

This might not apply to China but if so it would explain its strange end-of-year launch pattern.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

132 SpaceX
64 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 151 to 96, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 132 to 115.

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Perseverance takes its first good look west at its future journey

12:32 pm

Peservance looks west
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, reduced and enhanced to post here, was taken today by the left navigation camera on the Mars rover Perseverance. Though I am not 100% certain, I think this picture looks almost due west, and is aimed not only at the rover’s near term target, Witch Hazel Hill, but the rover’s long term and very important goal, the Nils Fossae ridge and canyon that appears to be crack formed during the impact that created giant 745-mile-wide Isidis Basin. Jezero Crater sits on the western rim of that impact basin.

The rover team expects to reach Witch Hazel Hill within days. To get there quickly the team has moved the rover more than a thousand feet west and dropped down from the rim about 170 feet in just the past ten days.
» Read more

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Oh no! The sonic booms of SpaceX are coming!

10:00 am

Superheavy after its flight safely captured at Boca Chica
Superheavy after its flight, safely captured at Boca Chica
on October 13, 2024.

When the current (but soon to step down) administrator of the FAA Mike Whitaker testified before Congress in September 2024 and attempted to explain his agency’s red tape that have significantly slowed development of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy rocket, he claimed that the sonic booms produced when Superheavy returned to land at the launchpad posed a “safety issue” that needed a detailed review.

“I think the sonic boom analysis [related to returning Superheavy back to Boca Chica] is a safety related incident.”

The sudden introduction of this issue was somewhat out of the blue. While loud, the sonic boom of a rocket launch is hardly a concern. The space shuttle produced the same for decades when it landed, and that was always considered a fun plus to watching the landing. And even if SpaceX begins launching its rockets once a day from any spaceport, that added noise does nothing to hurt anyone. In fact, it is a local signal of a thriving economy.

Since then it appears the leftist “intellectual elitists” that don’t like it when they don’t run everything — which is one reason they now hate Elon Musk — have run a full court press trying to make these rocket sonic booms a cause celebre that can be used to block SpaceX launches.
» Read more

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Land of dust devils

2:17 pm

Land of dust devils
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image to the right demonstrates that the atmosphere and climate of Mars is truly different in different places. The picture, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on July 22, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled simply as a “terrain sample”, it was likely taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule in order to maintain its proper temperature.

I post it today almost to illustrate the difference between this location and the spot where the lander Insight landed on Mars. Earlier this week the MRO camera team released a short movie created by images of the lander taken over six years, showing how the dust around it had changed over time. I noted further how those images showed a very small number of dust devil tracks, which explained why no dust devil every crossed over the lander’s solar panels to clean them of dust.

For the picture on the right, however, there are a lot of dust devil tracks, so many near the bottom that they almost completely darken the ground.
» Read more

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Vast signs deal with SpaceX for two ISS tourist missions

12:34 pm

Depending on whether it gets NASA contractual approval, the space station startup Vast has now signed a deal with SpaceX for flying two tourist missions to ISS.

These two missions expand Vast’s launch manifest with SpaceX, which includes the company’s Falcon 9 rocket delivering Haven-1 to low-Earth orbit and a subsequent Dragon mission to fly crew to the commercial space station. Haven-1 will also be supported by Starlink laser-based high-speed internet.

Axiom, which has flown three tourist missions to ISS and has a fourth planned, is also bidding for the next two tourist slots NASA has made available for ISS in the coming years. It is not clear who will get those slots. Axiom has the advantage it has done it before, but the rumors that it lost money on those flights and now has a cash shortage work against it. Vast hasn’t yet flown, but it is moving fast to fly and occupy Haven-1 next year. NASA might want to give it at least one of those slots to balance the scales.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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More evidence SLS and Orion are on the way out

11:12 am

An article today by a local Fox station in Orlando calling NASA’s decision to fly the next Artemis mission using the Orion capsule as a return to the bad culture that caused both shuttle accidents is strong evidence that the political winds are now definitely blowing against the future of both NASA’s SLS rocket and its Orion capsule.

The article interviews former NASA astronaut Charles Camarda, who expressed strong reservations about NASA’s willingness to make believe the failures of the Orion heat shield on its only test flight could be dismissed.

“The way they’re attacking the problem is echoes of Challenger and Columbia, using exactly the same bad behaviors to understand the physics of the problem,” [former astronaut Charles Camarda] said. “They’re not using a research-based approach.” Camarda worries NASA is pressing ahead with the current heat shields because he says “a lot of the engineers are afraid to speak up, and that’s a serious problem.”

The point is not the article itself, but that a mainstream propaganda news outlet is publishing this perspective. This fact suggests that there is a growing willingness within the political community to end both SLS and Orion, and articles such as this are used to strengthen that narrative. Politicos in DC have a great fear of canceling big projects, and for them to agree to do so requires a great deal of groundwork to make sure the public will accept the decision. Articles such as this one are thus published in the propaganda press for exactly this reason.

In other words, the Washington swamp has now begun its own campaign to cancel SLS and Orion.

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Activists sue Texas commission for allowing SpaceX to use its Superheavy deluge launch system

9:45 am

The same activist groups that have repeatedly used lawfare to try to block SpaceX’s operations at Boca Chica have now sued the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for allowing SpaceX to use its deluge launch system during Starship/Superheavy launches, claiming that dumping potable drinking water into the ground somehow damages the environment.

The groups — the South Texas Environmental Justice Network, along with the Carrizo/Comecrudo Nation of Texas, and Save RGV — filed the lawsuit Monday after the agency decided last month to allow SpaceX to continue its operations for 300 days or until the company obtained the appropriate permit.

These three groups represent only a very tiny handful of people in the Rio Grande Valley. The people the media interviews from Save RGV always includes the same persons, suggesting that few people in south Texas support it. The “Carrizo/Comecrudo Nation of Texas” in turn is a fake Indian tribe. It no longer exists, and when it did it existed in Mexico, not Texas. Finally, the “South Texas Environmental Justice Network” is simply an umbrella organization created on top of other two to make it appear they have more support than they do.

The real question that local journalists should be asking is where are these groups getting their money for all their lawsuits? I suspect it comes from outside the region, from leftist political organizations whose goals have nothing to do with the environment.

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Firefly’s Blue Ghost lunar lander wins its fourth lunar NASA contract

9:32 am

Peregrine landing site

NASA yesterday awarded the rocket startup Firefly a $179.6 million contract to carry six NASA science instruments to the Moon on its Blue Ghost lunar lander, the third lander contract the company has won and the fourth Moon contract overall.

[The four contracts include] three lunar landers as well as one to provide radio frequency calibration services from orbit to support a radio science payload on the second lander mission.

The first mission, Blue Ghost 1 or “Ghost Riders in the Sky,” is scheduled for launch in mid-January, with a landing in the Mare Crisium region of the near side of the moon about 45 days after launch. Blue Ghost 2 will follow in 2026, landing on the lunar farside. That mission will also deploy ESA’s Lunar Pathfinder communications satellite into orbit. Both the second and third Blue Ghost missions will use Firefly’s Elytra Dark as an orbital transfer vehicle, delivering the landers to lunar orbit. Those vehicles will remain in lunar orbit to provide communications services.

This new contract will have Blue Ghost land in the Gruithuisen Domes region, as shown on the map to the right. This had been the landing target for the Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander when it launched in January 2024, but that mission failed when it developed a fuel leak shortly after launch. Astrobotic was able to operate the spacecraft through most of its trip to and from the Moon, but had to cancel the landing.

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ESA awards Avio three contracts worth $372 million for its Vega rockets

9:16 am

Capitalism in space: The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday awarded the Italian rocket company Avio three different contracts worth $372 million to further develop its Vega family of rockets.

The first two contracts subsidize work on upgrading the Vega-C launch site at the French Guiana spaceport as well as developing the company’s planned new rocket, Vega-E.

The third contract is more significant, because it signals the coming end of Arianespace, ESA’s commercial arm. Instead of going through that government-run agency — as ESA has done for a quarter century — ESA simply bought a Vega-C launch from Avio directly, the first time it has obtained launch services directly from a European company. The contract is to place in orbit an ESA climate research satellite.

The end of Arianespace was further signaled today by the announcement that Arianespace’s chief executive since 2013, Stephane Israel, is stepping down. It was Israel who in 2015 discouraged ESA from making Ariane-6 reusable. It was Israel who for years poo-pooed competition and free enterprise, lobbying continuously that ESA should do its launches through Arianespace exclusively.

Now, more than a decade later, ESA has finally rejected Israel’s arguments, and is eliminating the middle-man Arianespace entirely, purchasing launch contracts directly from the rocket companies while having its member nations as well as itself encourage the development of many private rocket companies across Europe.

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Chinese pseudo-company launches four satellites

8:41 am

According to China’s state-run press, China early this morning successfully launched four satellites using a commercial rocket, Ceres-1, that lifted off from an off shore launch platform on the country’s northeast coast.

The rocket supposedly belongs to the pseudo-company Galactic Energy, but China’s state-run press did not think this information was important enough to mention, illustrating why I think the company is not real. The satellites were likely communications satellites intended for one of the several giant satellite constellations China is building, but that information was also left out of China’s reporting.

132 SpaceX
63 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 151 to 95, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 132 to 114.

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Axiom to speed up assembly of its space station

6:59 pm

Axiom's new module assembly sequence
Axiom’s new module assembly sequence

Capitalism in space: In order to be able to fly its space station independent of ISS more quickly, Axiom has rearranged the order it will launch some modules.

Originally, the plan was to attach Habitat 1 (AxH1) first, before the power and thermal module. Now, the on-orbit assembly sequence will start with the Payload Power Thermal Module (AxPPTM), followed by AxH1, an airlock, Habitat 2 (AxH2), and finally the Research and Manufacturing Facility (AxRMF). “The result – free-flight capability after the launch and berthing of PPTM,” [Mark Greeley, Axiom Space COO and station program manager,] explained, “[will allow] us to add modules while on orbit once we have separated from station. Our goal is to ensure a smooth transition from a government to a commercial platform, maintaining a continuous human presence on orbit to serve a community of global customers and partners, to include NASA.”

The AxPPTM primary structure will be built by Thales Alenia Space in Turin, Italy, and then relocated to Houston no earlier than fall 2025, where the integration of the internal structure and systems will take place at Axiom Space facilities.

The new sequence is shown in the graphic above. This change will allow Axiom to fly free two years sooner than previously planned, in 2028. It appears NASA pushed for this change possibly because it considers remaining attached to ISS until 2030 a risk that should be avoided. NASA apparently is increasingly concerned about the state of Russia’s Zvezda module, and fears it might have a catastrophic failure due to the stress fractures in its hull. The sooner Axiom can get free of ISS the better.

This modification also appears to include some major changes from previous Axiom graphics. It appears the airlock module and its solar panels have undergone a major design change.

Below is my present ranking for the launch of the four space stations being designed and built:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, and plans to launch and occupy it in 2025 for a 30 day mission. It will then build its mult-module Haven-2 station.
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, which has also launched three tourist flights to ISS. Though there are rumors it is experiencing cash flow issues, today’s announcement suggests those rumors might be unfounded.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Though Blue Origin has apparently done little, Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building the station’s modules for launch.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman.
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SpaceX launches reconnaissance satellite

4:08 pm

SpaceX yesterday launched a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) satellite, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

The first stage completed its 22nd flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. The two fairings completed their ninth and tenth times respectively.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

132 SpaceX
62 China
16 Russia
13 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 151 to 94, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 132 to 113.

Hat tip to reader Geoffrey Carman. I had missed this launch and he let me know.

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Curiosity looks down and across Gale Crater

10:43 am

Curiosity looks down across Gale Crater
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was part of a panorama created by 24 photos taken by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Curiosity on December 16, 2024.

The view looks west at the foothills that fill the lower slopes of Mount Sharp. In the far distance, about 20 to 30 miles away, can be seen the western rim of Gale Crater, obscured by the dust in the Martian atmosphere.

Curiosity is presently contouring west along the mountain slope. As it goes it will pass a series of canyons coming down the mountainside. The goal is to eventually reach the canyon the science team has chosen to take for climbing that mountain.

Note the rocky ground. One of the surprises found as Curiosity left the crater floor and started climbing Mount Sharp about four years ago is the rockiness of the terrain. Unlike Earth, Mars’s atmosphere and environment does not have the activity to smooth out this landscape. While science data suggests flowing water was once present here, it wasn’t here long enough to smooth things out. And the atmosphere is just too thin.
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New manned Dragon capsule forces NASA to shuffle ISS crew launch and return schedules

9:03 am

In order to give SpaceX more time to complete work on a new manned Dragon capsule, raising its fleet of capsules to five, NASA has shuffled its springtime ISS crew launch and return schedules.

The change gives NASA and SpaceX teams time to complete processing on a new Dragon spacecraft for the mission. The new spacecraft is set to arrive to the company’s processing facility in Florida in early January. “Fabrication, assembly, testing, and final integration of a new spacecraft is a painstaking endeavor that requires great attention to detail,” said Steve Stich, manager, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.

…NASA and SpaceX assessed various options for managing the next crewed handover, including using another Dragon spacecraft and manifest adjustments. After careful consideration, the team determined that launching Crew-10 in late March, following completion of the new Dragon spacecraft, was the best option for meeting NASA’s requirements and achieving space station objectives for 2025.

This decision however impacts the return of the Dragon crew presently on board ISS, including the two astronauts launched in June on Boeing’s Starliner capsule and whose stay was extended from its initial length of one-to-eight weeks to more than six months when NASA made the decision to bring Starliner home unmanned. Instead of returning in February 2024, that crew will now have to return after the next crew arrives in late March.

Most of the press has focused on this two month extension to the Starliner crew, but to me the real news is that SpaceX is building a fifth manned capsule, as yet unnamed. Having five reusable capsules will give the company greater flexibility. I suspect SpaceX decided to build this additional capsule because, in addition to its ISS missions for NASA, it is going to be flying in 2025 both an Axiom mission to ISS as well as a 30-day mission to Vast’s Haven-1 space station. That latter mission will tie up one manned capsule for many months both before and after that long flight.

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