Scientists confirm 2023 data that suggested active volcanism on Venus

Active lava flows on Venus
Click for original video

Scientists have now confirmed a 2023 paper that had found evidence in archival data from the Magellan orbiter that there was active volcanism on Venus. From the abstract of the new paper:

To investigate more widespread alterations that have occurred over time in the planet’s surface morphology, we compared radar images of the same regions observed from 1990 to 1992 with the Magellan spacecraft. We found variations in the radar backscatter from different volcanic-related flow features on the western flank of Sif Mons and in western Niobe Planitia. We suggest that these changes are most reasonably explained as evidence of new lava flows related to volcanic activities that took place during the Magellan spacecraft’s mapping mission with its synthetic-aperture radar.

The image to the right is a screen capture, annotated to post here, from a video computer animation created by the science team based on that Magellan data. The red areas are where the scientists detected lava flow changes on the flanks of the volcano Sif Mons. From the press release:

Using flows on Earth as a comparison, the researchers estimate new rock that was emplaced in both locations to be between 10 and 66 feet (3 and 20 meters) deep, on average. They also estimate that the Sif Mons eruption produced about 12 square miles (30 square kilometers) of rock — enough to fill at least 36,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The Niobe Planitia eruption produced about 17 square miles (45 square kilometers) of rock, which would fill 54,000 Olympic swimming pools. As a comparison, the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, Earth’s largest active volcano, produced a lava flow with enough material to fill 100,000 Olympic pools.

There is uncertainty of course with this result, due to the difficulty of analyzing radar data properly. Nonetheless, this result reinforces last year’s results, which saw evidence of changes between the two Magellan data sets in a different region near the volcanoes Ozza Mons and Maat Mons. It also reinforces previous work going back decades that has repeatedly suggested Venus was volcanically active.

SpaceX launches more Starlink satellites

The bunny never stops. SpaceX this morning successfully placed another 23 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage successfully completed its tenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

56 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
6 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 64 to 36, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 56 to 44.

North Korea’s orbital Chollima-1 rocket explodes shortly after launch

North Korea’s third launch of its orbital Chollima-1 rocket, supposedly carrying a spy satellite, failed today when the first stage exploded shortly after launch.

North Korea’s official state news agency said it launched a spy satellite aboard a new rocket from its main space centre tonight. But it added that the rocket blew up during a first-stage flight soon after liftoff due to a suspected engine problem.

Video of the explosion showed up on social media almost immediately. I have embedded that video below.

Based on when the explosion occurred — early in the flight — and the planned flight path east from North Korea’s west coast Sohai spaceport, the rocket debris very likely crashed inside North Korea, its toxic hypergolic fuels pouring down possibly in habitable areas.
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Visiting a galactic bar

Visiting a galactic bar
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope as part of a research project studying the flow of gases inside barred galaxies. It shows a spiral galaxy, NGC 4731, edge on, located about 43 million light years away. From the caption:

Barred spiral galaxies outnumber both regular spirals and elliptical galaxies put together, numbering around 60% of all galaxies. The visible bar structure is a result of orbits of stars and gas in the galaxy lining up, forming a dense region that individual stars move in and out of over time. This is the same process that maintains a galaxy’s spiral arms, but it is somewhat more mysterious for bars: spiral galaxies seem to form bars in their centres as they mature, accounting for the large number of bars we see today, but can also lose them later on as the accumulated mass along the bar grows unstable. The orbital patterns and the gravitational interactions within a galaxy that sustain the bar also transport matter and energy into it, fuelling star formation.

Astronomers don’t really understand why these barred structures develop, since you would expect the overall gravity of the galaxy would promote a spiral or spherical shape. There must are factors not yet understood or completely identified (such as the magnetic fields of such galaxies).

South Korea establishes its own version of NASA

The South Korean government today announced the establishment of its own version of NASA, dubbed the Korea AeroSpace Administration (KASA), with what appears to be a focus on establishing a long term space program and using this to foster an aerospace commercial sector.

KASA was established under a special law passed by the National Assembly in January to unify government organizations in charge of space policy and projects. Based in Sacheon, South Gyeongsang Province, KASA has an annual budget of 758.9 billion won ($556 million) this year. The agency currently has around 110 employees and will eventually have a total of 293.

In March, the government established the 2024 Space Development Promotion Action Plan and set five major missions — including space exploration, space transportation, space industry, space security and space science.

In line with the government’s policy, KASA will establish a roadmap for Korea’s space exploration and plans to promote reusable launch vehicles, development of the country’s own global positioning system (GPS) and a lunar lander program. In particular, it plans to develop a lunar lander with a goal of landing on the moon in 2032, and to design and develop engines to enter the commercial launch service market.

A second South Korea news report quotes the head of this new agency as follows:

“Until now, the country’s space development projects have been led by the government,” Yoon Young-bin, KASA’s inaugural chief, said earlier. “The most important role of the space agency will be supporting the private sector to lead space development.”

He pointed out that the world’s space industry is moving toward the so-called “new space” era, where private companies are actively leading innovation in space technologies with more economic feasibility. “The global paradigm is shifting,” Yoon said, noting that top space companies, such as SpaceX, have developed reusable space rockets and launched a group of small satellites with capabilities similar to medium- and large-sized satellites.

If KASA maintains this approach, then South Korea’s future as a space power is bright. If instead KASA moves to control all space development, including the design and ownership of its rockets and spacecraft, then that program will be stifled, as America’s was by NASA for forty years after the 1960s space race.

China’s X-37B releases object in orbit

China’s copy of the U.S.’s military’s X-37B reusable mini-shuttle, dubbed Shenlong apparently released an object during its ongoing third orbital mission.

A new object (59884/2023-195G) has been cataloged associated with the Chinese CSSHQ spaceplane in a 602 x 608 km x 50.0 deg orbit. It seems to have been ejected about 1900 UTC May 24.

It is possibly this object is to test recapture maneuvers, as was done by during the mini-shuttle’s previous flight. It is also possible this release is preliminary to the end of the mission and the return of Shenlong to Earth. It is also possible it has a completely different purpose, since China has released practically no information about this spaceplane or any of its missions.

The present mission began a little more than seven months ago, releasing six small satellites a few days after launch. The previous two lasted two days and 276 days respectively. As with everything else, we have no idea how much longer it will remain in orbit.

North Korea notifies Japan of planned orbital launch

North Korea

North Korea today notified Japan that it plans a new orbital launch sometime between today and June 3, 2024, indicating several potential drop zones for the rocket’s lower stages.

It designated three areas where debris will fall — two west of the Korean Peninsula and the other east of the Philippines’ island of Luzon, according to the news outlet.

Pyongyang has made public a plan to launch three more satellites this year following its first military reconnaissance satellite launch in November.

The launch will apparently take place from North Korea’s Sohai spaceport on its west coast, and will fly over the country heading east. The payload will also likely be a reconnaissance satellite of some kind, similar to what the country launched in November 2023.

Rocket Lab launches NASA climate satellite

Rocket Lab today successfully launched the first of two NASA PREFIRE climate satellites, its Electron rocket lifting off from its launchpad in New Zealand.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

55 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
6 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 63 to 36, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 55 to 44.

NASA/Boeing/ULA confirm new June 1st launch date for Starliner

In a press briefing this morning officials from NASA, Boeing, and ULA confirmed the new June 1, 12:25 pm (Eastern) launch date for the first manned flight of Boeing’s Starliner manned capsule.

The officials provided a more detailed explanation of the helium leak in a valve that effects the capsule’s service module attitude thruster system, noting that it is not a design flaw but some specific issue in this particular valve. Because of this, they are confident the system can function safely even with the leak, which is relatively small.

However, the officials also noted that during their reviews in the past two weeks they discovered a new software issue in the spacecraft’s de-orbit engines that — under very unusual and unlikely circumstances — could actually cause those engines to fail to operate. They have figured out a work-around, whereby they fire the engines at a lower thrust in two stages rather than once.

Should the launch on June 1st be scrubbed for weather, they have back up dates on the next few days, though by June 4th ULA might have to swap out batteries on its Atlas-5 rocket that will require a longer stand down of several additional days.

SpaceX tentatively announces a June 5, 2024 Starship/Superheavy launch date

Starship/Superheavy flight profile
Click for original image at high resolution.

SpaceX today tentatively announced a June 5, 2024 launch date for the fourth Starship/Superheavy orbital test launch.

Before going into any details of the flight plan, as shown in the flight profile above, it is important to quote the first sentence in the announcement:

The fourth flight test of Starship could launch as soon as June 5, pending regulatory approval. [emphasis mine]

SpaceX has not yet gotten a launch permit from the FAA. It is likely it has inside information from the agency suggesting that permit will be issued by this date. It is also likely that SpaceX by making this announcement is applying pressure to the FAA to either get its paperwork done or waive the need so its red tape doesn’t delay the flight unnecessarily.

As for the flight itself, the flight profile is essentially the same as the previous test flight, with the Starship’s orbit designed for safety to bring it down in the Indian Ocean.

The fourth flight test turns our focus from achieving orbit to demonstrating the ability to return and reuse Starship and Super Heavy. The primary objectives will be executing a landing burn and soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico with the Super Heavy booster, and achieving a controlled entry of Starship.

To accomplish this, several software and hardware upgrades have been made to increase overall reliability and address lessons learned from Flight 3. The SpaceX team will also implement operational changes, including the jettison of the Super Heavy’s hot-stage following boostback to reduce booster mass for the final phase of flight.

All in all, this announcement is good news. SpaceX is ready to launch.

SpaceX launches more Starlink satellites

More bunny action. SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its thirteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Increasingly, SpaceX is treating its rockets and launchpads like the airlines treat their airplanes: They only have value if they are flying, and SpaceX is trying to keep both rockets and launchpads flying at all times.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

55 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 62 to 36, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 55 to 43.

Astronomers discover nearby Earth-sized exoplanet only slightly hotter than Earth

Using the TESS space telescope as well as a number of ground-based telescopes astronomers have discovered an Earth-sized exoplanet only 40 light years away that has a surface temperature estimated to be about 107 degrees Fahrenheit, assuming it has no atmosphere.

The host star, called Gliese 12, is a cool red dwarf located almost 40 light-years away in the constellation Pisces. The star is only about 27% of the Sun’s size, with about 60% of the Sun’s surface temperature. The newly discovered world, named Gliese 12 b, orbits every 12.8 days and is Earth’s size or slightly smaller — comparable to Venus. Assuming it has no atmosphere, the planet has a surface temperature estimated at around 107 degrees Fahrenheit (42 degrees Celsius).

At the moment however scientists do not yet know if the exoplanet has an atmosphere or not. Follow-up observations using the Webb Space Telescope are planned to find this out. Based on the data presently available, the exoplanet could either be like Venus, too hot to sustain life, or like Earth, cooler with water and an atmosphere and thus very habitable.

Gliese 12 b could therefore become one of the primary targets for the first interstellar missions once humanity begins such exploration.

Euclid releases new images and first science results

Euclid image
Click for original image.

The Euclid science team today released five early science images in connection of the publication of ten papers.

The picture to the right is one of those images, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here. From the caption:

In this image Euclid showcases NGC 6744, an archetype of the kind of galaxy currently forming most of the stars in the local Universe. Euclid’s large field-of-view covers the entire galaxy, capturing not only spiral structure on larger scales but also exquisite detail on small spatial scales. This includes feather-like lanes of dust emerging as ‘spurs’ from the spiral arms, shown here with incredible clarity.

Scientists are using this dataset to understand how dust and gas are linked to star formation; map how different star populations are distributed throughout galaxies and where stars are currently forming; and unravel the physics behind the structure of spiral galaxies, something that is still not fully understood after decades of study.

Euclid is a wide-field space telescope that has instruments that observe in both visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Its primary mirror at 1.2 meters is half the width of Hubble’s. More details about these early images and links to the new science results can be found here.

Unlike Hubble, it appears Euclid will not be used as a general observatory, at least initially. Its primary goal is to do a survey of one third of the sky, focusing on extragalactic sources outside the Milky Way. Once this is complete however it is possible the space telescope will be made available for other observations.

Psyche gets clean bill-of-health after completing six-month checkout since launch

Psyche's flight path to the asteroid Psyche
Psyche’s flight path to the asteroid Psyche.
Click for original image.

The probe Psyche has successfully completed its six-month checkout since its launch in October 2023 and is now using its ion engines to steadily increase its speed as it heads to a 2029 rendezvous with the metal asteroid Psyche.

The orbiter is now more than 190 million miles (300 million kilometers) away and moving at a clip of 23 miles per second (37 kilometers per second), relative to Earth. That’s about 84,000 mph (135,000 kph). Over time, with no atmospheric drag to slow it down, Psyche will accelerate to speeds of up to 124,000 mph (200,000 kph).

The spacecraft will arrive at the metal-rich asteroid Psyche in 2029 and will make observations from orbit for about two years. The data it collects will help scientists better understand the formation of rocky planets with metallic cores, including Earth. Scientists have evidence that the asteroid, which is about 173 miles (280 kilometers) across at its widest point, may be the partial core of a planetesimal, the building block of an early planet.

The graphic to the right shows the path Psyche will take to get to the asteroid.

SpaceX to FAA: Let us launch Starship/Superheavy before you complete the red-tape for the previous flight

Superheavy/Starship lifting off on March 14, 2024
Superheavy/Starship lifting off on March 14, 2024

According to the FAA, SpaceX has officially asked the FAA to allow it to launch the next Starship/Superheavy test orbital launch before the agency officially completes its mishap investigation into the previous flight in March.

In a statement sent to ValleyCentral, the FAA stated that on April 5, SpaceX requested the FAA make a “public safety determination” as part of the Starship flight test mishap. “If the FAA agrees no public safety issues were involved in the mishap, the operator may return to flight while the mishap investigation remains open, provided all other license requirements are met.”

With this modification in place, SpaceX would be able to launch the fourth Starship test flight while the mishap investigation of the third flight is still open.

When these requests are received, the FAA evaluates safety-critical systems, the nature of the consequences of the mishap, adequacy of existing flight analysis, safety organization performance and environmental factors, the statement added. The FAA stated it is reviewing the request and will be “guided by data and safety at every step of the process.”

What does this request tell us? First, as expected SpaceX has completed its own investigation into the March launch and installed the upgrades it considers necessary. Second, the FAA however has not, even though the FAA has absolutely no competence in this matter. It is merely retyping the SpaceX report.

Third, SpaceX now realizes that the FAA will not have finished that retyping when SpaceX is ready to launch sometime in the next three weeks. Rather than sit and wait, as it did on the previous two test launches, it wants the FAA to recognize reality and let it proceed. Why wait when the FAA is literally contributing nothing to the process?

Will the FAA do so? I suspect there are people in the FAA who would very much like to. I also know that there are others both in the FAA and higher up the command chain (mostly in the White House) that like the idea of slowing SpaceX down, mostly for petty political reasons. We should not be surprised if those higher ups use their clout and insist the FAA reject this request.

If so, the fourth test launch of Starship/Superheavy will likely be further delayed, though by how much is unclear. Shortly after the March test launch I predicted that the next flight would occur in the June/July timeframe, not early May as SpaceX was then predicting, and the delay will be mostly because of FAA red tape. It now appears that prediction will be correct.

Boeing/NASA now targeting a June 1, 2024 launch of Starliner

In a brief update posted today by NASA, the agency announced that Boeing, NASA, and ULA have a new 12:25 pm (Eastern) June 1, 2024 launch date for the first manned flight of Boeing’s Starliner capsule.

The announcement was incredibly obscure about what the issues are that have caused this additional week delay:

Work continues to assess Starliner performance and redundancy following the discovery of a small helium leak in the spacecraft’s service module. As part of this work, and unrelated to the current leak which remains stable, teams are in the process of completing a follow-on propulsion system assessment to understand potential helium system impacts on some Starliner return scenarios. NASA also will conduct a Delta-Agency Flight Test Readiness Review to discuss the work that was performed since the last CFT launch attempt on May 6, and to evaluate issue closure and flight rationale ahead of the next attempt, as part of NASA’s process for assessing readiness. The date of the upcoming Flight Test Readiness Review is under consideration and will be announced once selected.

It appears that engineers are worried the leak — which is linked to one of the attitude thrusters in the capsule’s service module — might impact the ability of Starliner to return to Earth safely. It also appears there is concern about the spacecraft sitting on the launchpad for more than a month, and an evaluation is on-going on whether this might be an issue as well.

I am guessing however. A more detailed explanation might be forth-coming after press update scheduled for 11 am (Eastern) tomorrow.

Two of Voyager-1’s four instruments resume science operations

Engineers have resumed getting science data from two of Voyager-1’s four instruments for the first time since in November 2023, when corrupted computer memory caused the spacecraft to send only incoherent data.

The plasma wave subsystem and magnetometer instrument are now returning usable science data. As part of the effort to restore Voyager 1 to normal operations, the mission is continuing work on the cosmic ray subsystem and low energy charged particle instrument. (Six additional instruments aboard Voyager 1 are either no longer working or were turned off after the probe’s flyby of Saturn.)

Engineers hope to begin getting good data the other two instruments in the next few weeks.

SpaceX launches more Starlink satellites

March on bunny! SpaceX last night successfully launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its eighth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

54 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the world combined in successful launches, 61 to 36, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 54 to 43.

ESA awards contracts to two companies to build unmanned orbital freighters

The European Space Agency (ESA) today awarded contracts worth 25 million euros each to two European companies — the French startup The Exploration Company and the established Italian contractor Thales-Alenia — to begin development of their own unmanned freighters capable of bringing cargo to and from orbit.

During phase 1 development, the selected companies will mature the design of their respective vehicles, focusing on mission requirements, architectures, technology maturation, and de-risking activities. This phase of development is expected to run from June 2024 to June 2026.

Phase 2 of the initiative will see the companies develop and execute a demonstration mission that must be launched by the end of 2028. However, the commencement of Phase 2 will be subject to decisions and appropriations made at ESA’s next ministerial-level council meeting, which will take place in late 2025.

These contracts only cover phase 1. If successful, these capsules will compete with the cargo capsules that SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Sierra Space fly in providing supplies to the four commercial space stations presently being built.

SpaceX launches NRO reconnaissance satellite(s)

SpaceX last night successfully placed a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) reconnaissance payload into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. Because of the classified nature of the flight, it is unclear whether the payload is one or several satellites.

The first stage completed its 16th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific. The fairings completed their 12th and 3rd flights respectively.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

53 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 60 to 36, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 53 to 43.

Starliner manned launch delayed again; no new launch announced

In a very terse statement that apparently was only sent out by email to some sources, NASA and Boeing announced last night that the May 25, 2024 launch of the first manned Starliner mission on ULA’s Atlas-5 rocket had been postponed, with no new launch date set.

NASA, Boeing, and ULA are foregoing the Saturday, May 25 launch attempt for NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test. The team has been in meetings for two consecutive days, assessing flight rationale, system performance, and redundancy. There is still forward work in these areas, and the next possible launch opportunity is still being discussed.

NASA will share more details once we have a clearer path forward,

The first launch scrub prior to the first launch date of May 6th was due to a valve issue on the Atlas-5 rocket. ULA quickly replaced that valve and the launch was rescheduled for May 17th. Then Boeing engineers detected a helium leak related to one of the attitude thrusters in the capsule’s service module. The launch was first delayed until May 21st, then delayed again until May 25th. Now it is delayed indefinitely.

Whether that helium leak remains the cause of this new delay remains unknown. That no new launch date has been proposed suggests the need to bring the rocket and capsule back to the assembly building to destack it in order to fix the problem. That NASA, Boeing, and ULA are being so coy about revealing any details suggests however that some additional issue might have been uncovered.

Regardless, this new extended delay is very bad publicity for Boeing. While the comparison is somewhat unfair, it continues to make Starliner look like an American version of a Yugo, not the kind of vehicle one would nonchalantly climb into for a flight into space.

Glacial tributaries draining south on Mars

Glacial tributaries draining south on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on March 27, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows what the scientists label as a “valley network”, what appears to be several tributaries flowing downhill from the northeast to come together into a larger single flow to the southwest. The elevation drop from the high to the low points in this picture is about 600 feet.

What formed the valleys? This location is at 35 degrees south latitude, so we are almost certainly looking at what appear to be shallow glaciers within those valleys, protected by a thin veneer of dust and debris. It also appears that the stippled surrounding plains might also contain a lot of near-surface ice, also protected by a thin layer of dust and debris. The stippling indicates some sublimation and erosion.
» Read more

China’s Kuaizhou-11 rocket launches four satellites

China yesterday successfully placed four satellites into orbit, its solid-fueled Kuaizhou-11 rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

The only information about the satellites released by China’s state-run press was that one was “an ultra-low orbit technology test satellite,” likely similar to the reconnaissance satellites that Redwire is producing here in the U.S.

The state-run press also made no mention on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

52 SpaceX
23 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 59 to 36, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 52 to 43.

Sierra Space’s Tenacity mini-shuttle arrives at the Cape

Capitalism in space: Sierra Space’s Tenacity Dream Chaser mini-shuttle has finally arrived at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida for its final testing and assembly onto ULA’s Vulcan rocket.

Upon arrival at Kennedy, teams moved Dream Chaser Tenacity to the high bay inside the Space Systems Processing Facility, where it will undergo final testing and prelaunch processing ahead of its launch scheduled for later this year.

…The remaining pre-flight activities at Kennedy include acoustic and electromagnetic interference and compatibility testing, completion of work on the spaceplane’s thermal protection system, and final payload integration.

If all goes right, Tenacity’s first mission will last 45 days, delivery about 7,800 pounds of cargo to ISS, and prove out the reusable mini-shuttle for up to seven more flights to ISS.

ESA narrows Ariane-6 launch date to first two weeks in July

In an announcement today, the European Space Agency (ESA) narrowed the launch window for the first launch of its new Ariane-6 rocket to the first two weeks in July.

It also stated that the final launch date will be revealed in the first week of June, during presentations at an air show in Berlin, Germany.

In the next month the rocket will undergo a full dress rehearsal countdown on the launchpad. It will then be “drained of fuel in preparation” for the actual launch.

This rocket is built and mostly owned by the private consortium ArianeGroup, made up of a partnership of Airbus and Safran, and working in conjunction with ESA. Though Arianespace, ESA’s long time commercial arm, is mentioned as ESA’s “launch service provider” for this launch, it is very clear that it is being pushed aside and will soon become irrelevant. The rocket is four years behind schedule and being entirely expendable it is too expensive to compete in the modern launch market. The member nations of ESA have rejected it, and so they are shifting to a capitalism in space model, whereby they no longer have a government commercial “launch service provider” like Arianespace, but instead buy launch services from competing private European rocket companies.

Europe’s problem is that it will take time to develop these private companies. In the interim it will be forced to use Ariane-6, but likely only for a few years. There are at least five new rocket companies in Europe, with three (Rocket Factory Augsburg, PLD, and Hyimpulse) having already completed their first launch tests.

Solar storms are simply no longer a threat

The sunspot cycle as of May 2024
The sunspot cycle as of May 2024. Click
for full details.

Today’s Chicken Little Report: When NOAA predicted on May 9, 2024 that a powerful solar flare had erupted from the Sun and was aiming a major solar storm directly at the Earth, the scientists at the federal government’s Space Weather Prediction Center could not help underlining the disaster potential, and were ably aided by the mainstream press. This CNN report was typical:

“Geomagnetic storms can impact infrastructure in near-Earth orbit and on Earth’s surface, potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations,” according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. “(The center) has notified the operators of these systems so they can take protective action.”

The center has notified operators in these areas to take action to mitigate the potential for any impacts, which include the possibility of increased and more frequent voltage control problems. Other aspects operators will monitor include a chance of anomalies or impacts to satellite operations and frequent or longer periods of GPS degradation.

And as always, the news report has to end with this warning of doom:
» Read more

Blue Origin resumes manned suborbital New Shepard flights

Blue Origin yesterday flew its first suborbital New Shepard flight since a failure during an unmanned flight in 2022, flying six passengers on a short ten-minute jump.

This suborbital flight got a lot of press yesterday and today, but I consider these suborbital tourist flights somewhat old news. Had they occurred two decades ago, in the 2000s as promised, they could have helped trigger the commercial space industry. Instead, both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic took another two decades to get started, and by that time orbital tourist flights were taking place.

There might be money to be made in suborbital hops like this, but the future of space exploration lies elsewhere.

As for Blue Origin, this flight confirms that the company has fixed the nozzle issues that caused the September 2022 launch failure. During ascent just after launch the spacecraft’s abort system activated, sending the New Shepard capsule free from the first stage booster, which subsequently crashed. The capsule landed safely with parachutes.

The investigation then stretched out over more than two years. It remains unclear why it took so long, though the FAA’s regulatory burden appears to have been one factor, with Blue Origin’s own sluggish pace of operations another.

China launches four satellites

China early this morning successfully launched four satellites, its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in the northwest of China.

No further information about the satellites was released. Nor did China’s state-run press provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed within the country.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

52 SpaceX
22 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 59 to 35, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including other American companies, 52 to 42.

Piece from SpaceX Dragon service module falls on Canadian farm

Though not yet confirmed a 90-pound piece of burned debris that crashed on a Canadian farm and found in late April appears to be a section from the trunk section of a SpaceX Dragon service module.

Jonathan McDowell, who tracks space launches and re-entries, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the trunk from the private Axiom Space Ax-3 mission fell over Saskatchewan on Feb. 26.

This incident, along with several others over the last few years, tells us that not everything engineers thought would burn up upon re-entry does so. A major rethinking of how objects are de-orbited could be necessary.

NLRB suspends case against SpaceX

The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) has agreed to suspend one of its cases against SpaceX while the company’s lawsuit challenging the board’s constitutional authority proceeds.

SpaceX alleged that the NLRB’s in-house enforcement proceedings violate its constitutional right to a jury trial. It also said limits on the removal of the NLRB’s board members and administrative judges violates the Constitution. Amazon, Starbucks, and Trader Joe’s have asserted similar claims in recent months.

A second NLRB case has already been suspended by the federal 5th Court of Appeals, for the same reasons.

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