Two launches yesterday
Both SpaceX and Arianespace successfully completed orbital launches yesterday. First, SpaceX placed another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The first stage completed its 13th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Next, Arianespace placed 32 more Amazon Leo satellites in orbit, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from France’s French Guiana spaceport in South America. The expendable Ariane-6 launched for the second time in its most powerful configuration, with four side boosters. This was also Arianespace’s second launch this year, so it remains off the leader board below.
With this launch, Amazon now has 302 Leo satellites in orbit, out of the 1,616 it needs to launch by July to meet its FCC license requirement. The company’s request for a time extension is presently pending at the FCC.
The leaders in the 2026 launch race:
52 SpaceX
23 China
8 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
For the third straight year SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches, 52 to 44.
Russia was also supposed to do a test suborbital launch of its new Soyuz-5 rocket. As of posting I have not been able to confirm whether the launch took place.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Both SpaceX and Arianespace successfully completed orbital launches yesterday. First, SpaceX placed another 24 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The first stage completed its 13th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
Next, Arianespace placed 32 more Amazon Leo satellites in orbit, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from France’s French Guiana spaceport in South America. The expendable Ariane-6 launched for the second time in its most powerful configuration, with four side boosters. This was also Arianespace’s second launch this year, so it remains off the leader board below.
With this launch, Amazon now has 302 Leo satellites in orbit, out of the 1,616 it needs to launch by July to meet its FCC license requirement. The company’s request for a time extension is presently pending at the FCC.
The leaders in the 2026 launch race:
52 SpaceX
23 China
8 Russia
6 Rocket Lab
For the third straight year SpaceX continues to lead the entire world combined in total launches, 52 to 44.
Russia was also supposed to do a test suborbital launch of its new Soyuz-5 rocket. As of posting I have not been able to confirm whether the launch took place.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
One of the NSF guys on X this morning was marveling at the fact that with this Ariane 6 launch, Amazon has actually put more satellites in orbit over the past 7 days than Starlink had. I double checked it, and sure enough, he was right, at least as of that moment.
Obviously 7 days is an arbitrary and very short cutoff, and the numbers look vastly different if you look at the last 6 months (or any other time frame). But I suppose there is no denying that Amazon has been able ratchet up the tempo of deployment of late, and that may well be the kind of evidence of earnest intention that will get them an extension from the FCC. There might be strings attached, however.
Based on 40 launches through the end of March, SpaceX was, at that point, launching at an annualized rate of 160/yr. Having done 12 launches in April for a YTD total of 52, SpaceX has now regressed a bit to an annualized rate of 156/yr.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said a few weeks ago that the company may only do 140 – 145 Falcon launches this year. That number is probably based on an expectation of success for Starship Flight 12 and a rapid cadence of Starship tests flights thereafter shading into a few early operational Starship missions, most likely for Starlink V3 deployment. The reduction in annual Falcon launches would come entirely out of the F9 Starlink launch subtotal.
But there are some uncertainties beyond what happens with Starship. SpaceX is supposed to do several launches of satellites for the Telesat Lightspeed LEO broadband Internet constellation later this year. But Telesat is in quite precarious financial condition according to its latest audit, and might find itself unable to proceed with these launches.
Should that happen, SpaceX could simply reduce its 2026 launch total accordingly, lay on some additional Starlink V2 Mini+ missions in place of cancelled Telesat missions or find some other customer for those launch opportunities. The most likely such customer would be Amazon for its own LEO broadband Internet constellation. SpaceX is already lined up to do 10 such launches this year, but could do more if Telesat defaults.
The Ariane 64 launch early this morning may provide a clue as to why Amazon could find itself wanting even more launches for its constellation from SpaceX. It was repeatedly stated during that launch’s webcast that this was only the second of 18 launches Amazon has contracted for with Arianespace. This just-completed 2nd launch comes about 2-1/2 months after the first. The remaining 16 launches will constitute the majority of the Ariane 6 manifest over at least the next two years as the company said it expects to be able to do only two or three more launches this year, perhaps 6 -8 in 2027 and perhaps 8 – 10 in 2028. Under those circumstances – and with Vulcan and New Glenn both stood down – one can easily see Amazon coming back to SpaceX for a third tranche of Falcon 9 launches – perhaps even more than the 10 launches of the 2nd tranche.
Here, I guess, is where I offer the obligatory hat-tip to the late great Yogi Berra and his observation that it’s really difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.