Author: Robert Zimmerman

Mars rover update: December 18, 2017

11:44 am

Summary: The scientists and engineers of both Curiosity and Opportunity have route decisions to make.

Curiosity

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For the overall context of Curiosity’s travels, see Pinpointing Curiosity’s location in Gale Crater.

Since my November 16 update, Curiosity’s travels crossing Vera Rubin Ridge, a geological bedding plain dubbed the Hematite Unit, has continued apace. They however have not been following the route that had been planned beforehand, as shown by the yellow dotted line on the right. Instead, they have headed south, along the red dotted line. For the past week or so they have been doing a variety of research tasks in the same area, analyzing samples taken months before, studying sand deposits, and taking many images of some interesting rock layers.

I also suspect that the lack of movement in the past week is partly because they need to make some route-finding decisions. The planned yellow route shown above appears to be somewhat rough in the full resolution orbital image. While I suspect they will still head in that direction, I also think they are doing some very careful analysis of this route and beyond, to make sure they will not end up in a cul de sac where the rover will not be able to continue its climb of Mount Sharp.

Opportunity

For the context of Opportunity’s recent travels along the rim of Endeavour Crater, see my May 15, 2017 rover update.
» Read more

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More films of early nuclear test released

10:52 am

The uncertainty of science: Researchers have released more films taken during numerous 1950s and 1960s atmospheric nuclear bomb tests to the public, while noting that modern computer simulations of nuclear explosions, based on the data taken from these early tests, could be as much as 30 percent in error.

Ten years ago, Spriggs was asked to write a computer code related to nuclear weapons effects, but his calculations didn’t agree with what was published in the 1950s and ’60s. When he dug in to find out why there was a discrepancy, he discovered that the manual measurements made in the ’50s and ’60s were off, in some cases by 20 percent to 30 percent. His new mission had become clear: reanalyze all the nuclear test films to ensure future computer simulations would be validated.

“It was driving me nuts,” Spriggs said. “No matter what I did, I couldn’t get my calculations to agree. Eventually, I came to the conclusion that the data must be off. To prove our simulations are correct, we rely on quality benchmark data. That’s why this project is so important. It is providing the data our physicists need to ensure our deterrent remains viable into the future.”

They are scanning and reanalyzing all the footage so that they can refine their models. They also note that the analysis done in the 50s and 60s was actually quite good, but today’s computer technology allows for greater accuracy and objectivity.

Hat tip Wayne DeVette.

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ArianeGroup to begin production of first Ariane 6 rocket

9:34 am

Capitalism in space: Having completed a new review of the design of its new Ariane 6 rocket, ArianeGroup and ESA have decided to begin production for a planned launch in 2020.

I continue to wonder how they expect this expendable rocket to compete for launch business with both SpaceX and Blue Origin flying reusables by 2020. At best, I see the member states of the European Space Agency saddled with the requirement to use this more expensive rocket, which will seriously handicap them in the competition to settle the solar system.

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Giant Stratolaunch plane conducts first taxi test

9:24 am

Capitalism in space: The giant Stratolaunch plane built out of two 747s completed its first taxi test yesterday.

Stratolaunch’s plane, nicknamed Roc, has the widest wingspan in the aviation world at 385 feet. That’s 50 percent wider than the wings of a Boeing 747 — which probably shouldn’t be surprising, considering that parts from two 747s went into building the plane. Mojave-based Scaled Composites aided in the fabrication of the plane’s carbon composite components.

I think a better way to illustrate the size of the wingspan is to note that if you laid a Saturn 5 rocket along those wings, it would not reach the tips at either end, being “only” 363 feet long.

Several experienced engineers at Behind the Black have previously wondered at whether the plane’s central structure holding its two fuselages together would be strong enough to provide a stable flight. Looking at the picture at the link, I must wonder the same thing.

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XCOR bankruptcy revelations

9:06 am

XCOR’s bankruptcy has revealed how far the company was from actually building and flying its Lynx suborbital spacecraft.

In original financial filings, XCOR reported having $1,424.66 in cash.

No value was given to the Lynx MK1, a spaceplane in development that would take off and land horizontally. Between $15 million and $20 million would be required to finish the Lynx, according to documents. An estimated $25 million to $30 million was invested.

It is hard to say whether XCOR was a scam, or a good idea that simply never could get the investment capital to fly. In the end, however, it essentially turned out to be both. According the article, local government agencies in both Florida and Texas have lost millions from investments they made in the company in the hope it would produce jobs in their communities.

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Soyuz launches new crew to ISS

8:52 am

The Russians today launched a new crew to ISS using their Soyuz rocket.

Since the capsule only has to fly to ISS in low Earth orbit, it did not use the Fregat upper stage that failed in another recent Soyuz launch.

This launch probably clinches Russia’s lead over SpaceX for the most successful launches in 2017. At the same time, the U.S. overall will still win handily, with its most total launches in this century.

28 United States
19 Russia
17 SpaceX
15 China

I will be publishing a complete table of the launches with analysis, as I did last year, once the year is complete.

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SpaceX launches Dragon and lands 1st stage

11:48 am

Capitalism in space: SpaceX this morning successfully launched a previously used Dragon cargo freighter to ISS as well as once again successfully landing the previously used first stage.

This was the first time NASA agreed to the use of a previously launched first stage. With the first stage and capsule both reused, only the second stage and one out of 10 Merlin engines was new and will not be available for further reuse.

I have embedded the launch video below the fold.

The standings for the most launches in 2017, as of today:

28 United States
18 Russia
17 SpaceX
15 China

Note that I am counting Soyuz launches for Arianespace out of French Guiana under Arianespace, not Russia. Also, the U.S. total includes SpaceX. I have separated SpaceX out to show how a single American company is competing aggressively with whole nations.
» Read more

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The Trump administration’s space policy, according to Scott Pace

10:12 am

Scott Pace, the executive secretary of the National Space Council, outlined at a symposium earlier this week the overall space policy of the Trump administration.

The United States should seek to ensure that its space activities reflect “our values and not just our technologies,” Pace urged. “We should seek to ensure that our space activities reflect those values: democracy, liberty, free enterprise, and respect for domestic and international law in a peaceful international order.”

To influence the development and utilization of space, the United States needs to “create attractive projects and frameworks in which other nations choose to align themselves and their space activities with us, as opposed to others.”

He went on to outline several very general concepts that they are using to shape this policy. He also praised the Outer Space Treaty, and was challenged about this by another symposium participant.

Pace was challenged on the last point by University of Mississippi space law professor emerita Joanne Gabrynowicz. She agreed that the concept that space is the common heritage of all mankind has not been accepted internationally. Pursuant to the Outer Space Treaty, however, it is the “province of all mankind” and that language is based on the principle of res communis, she asserted. Pace held his ground, saying he takes advice from the State Department’s Office of Legal Adviser which has concluded that it is not. Asked later what framework he does use, Pace replied that international law can be created by the pen or by practice and ultimately is whatever sovereign nations decide to do with each other. He added that involving the international private sector is also important because it brings in best practices that can be turned into guidelines.

In other words, Pace is going along with the general Washington culture that is afraid to push for a significant change in the Outer Space Treaty, and is instead saying that property rights can still be established by other agreements within international law and individual national negotiations.

As I have been saying for years, this is bad policy. Without a right to establish sovereignty and borders in space, there will be no mechanism for nations and individuals to function legally, which is only going to cause conflict while discouraging investment and development.

Nonetheless, the position taken by Pace and the general culture in Washington is par for the course. I have very seen few good policy decisions coming out of Washington in the past three decades, especially when it comes to space. This is only another example.

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India to build a smallsat rocket

9:55 am

Capitalism in space: India’s space agency ISRO has announced that it developing a smallsat rocket expressly designed to launch cubesats and thus compete with the new smallsat rocket companies now about to become operational.

ISRO has been very successful in providing a launch platform for smallsats on its PSLV rocket, but in this case the smallsats fly as secondary payloads, dependent on the needs of the larger primary satellite. It appears that the space agency has realized that their market share in this area is now threatened by the small rockets being developed by Rocket Lab and Vector, and is therefore moving to compete.

This announcement also provides more evidence that the space industry is splitting between smaller unmanned payloads and larger manned payloads. I predict that in ten years most unmanned satellites launched to circle the Earth will be tiny and launched on tiny rockets, while simultaneously we will see a new generation of giant rockets putting manned spacecraft into orbit and beyond.

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Arizona’s Court of Appeals sides with Pima County on space balloon deal

9:48 am

Arizona’s second highest court has agreed with Pima County and approved a deal the county made, without competitive bidding, with the space balloon company World View.

In a unanimous ruling, the three-judge panel acknowledged the purpose of competitive bids is to ensure that the county — and, by extension, the taxpayers — gets the most money for the property. But Judge Peter Eckerstrom, writing for the court, said that does not apply when the real goal is not immediate income but longer-term economic development.

The Goldwater Institute, which brought the suit that claimed that the deal violated the state constitution because the lease was signed without competitive bidding, has said it will appeal to Arizona’s Supreme Court.

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Israeli X-Prize team still short of funds

9:41 am

Capitalism in space: The Israeli Google Lunar X-Prize competitor, SpaceIL, still needs to raise $7.5 million by December 20th or it will be forced to drop out of the competition, even though they say their spacecraft is finished.

SpaceIL initially estimated it would need about $8 million for the GLXP effort, but costs soared to $85 million, team members said. The team needs to raise $30 million by Dec. 20 to pay its bills. It has secured $22.5 million in pledges, contingent on the team’s ability to raise that additional $7.5 million.

I must admit that something about this stinks. Their budget has gone up more than ten times from its original estimate, from $8 million to $85 million. They have so far raised $55 million of hard cash, which is still about seven times their original budget, and with this they have actually built their spacecraft. Why do their need another $30 million? And why the hard December 20th deadline or they shut down?

As I say, something about this situation doesn’t feel right to me.

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More than 1,000 sign up to compete for four UAE astronaut positions

9:32 am

The new colonial movement: More than 1,000 people have signed up to compete for four United Arab Emirate (UAE) positions as astronauts.

Those chosen will undergo three years of training in order to prepare them for a trip to ISS. The article does not say how the UAE will get them there, but I suspect at some point the country will sign a contract with either Russia, Boeing, SpaceX, or China for a seat on one of their manned capsules.

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Vector gets launch contract

9:24 am

Capitalism in space: The smallsat rocket company Vector has signed a launch contract with Astro Digital.

Vector, a nanosatellite launch company comprised of new-space and enterprise software industry veterans from SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, McDonnell Douglas, Boeing, Sea Launch and VMware, today announced that it will join forces with Astro Digital, a leader in real-time satellite imagery data, to conduct a dedicated launch in 2018 featuring one of Astro Digital’s satellites for remote sensing applications. Astro Digital plans to engage Vector to launch at least twelve such satellites as part of a larger constellation, with an option to then continue operations at a pace of two to four dedicated satellite launches per year.

The press release notes that Astro Digital flew a test payload on Vector’s suborbital test flight on one of Vector’s two test flights, and that experience convinced the company to sign this new contract.

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Julie Andrews – Impossible

6:01 pm

An evening pause: From the live television premiere of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s Cinderella in 1957, their only musical written for television. Edith Adams plays the fairy godmother.

For the world is full of zanies and fools
Who don’t believe in sensible rules
And won’t believe what sensible people say
And because these daft and dewey-eyed dopes keep building up impossible hopes
Impossible things are happening every day!

I first posted this in 2011. Time to see it again.

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Initial analysis of radio observations of Oumuamua detect no artificial signals

1:34 pm

The initial analysis of the first set of radio observations of Oumuamua by Breakthrough Listen has so far not detected any artificial signals.

No such signals have been detected, although the analysis is not yet complete. So far, data from the S-band receiver (covering frequencies from 1.7 to 2.6 GHz) has been processed, and analysis of the remaining three bands is ongoing. A subset of the S-band data is now available for public inspection in the Breakthrough Listen archive3, and additional data will be added as it becomes available.

The data is stored in specialized formats, and analyzing it may be challenging for non-experts. We invite those who are interested to study the tutorial material provided by the Breakthrough Listen science team at the University of California, Berkeley, SETI Research Center and to assist with the analysis not only of this intriguing object, but of the entire Breakthrough Listen dataset.

They still plan three more observation sessions.

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