Stop being afraid!
After almost two years the data continues to confirm the very first data in March 2020, showing the same thing time after time after time after time. COVID-19 is merely a variation of the ordinary flu, and the panic that has accompanied its arrival in early 2020 was never justified, not for one instant. Let me do a quick review of some recent data points:
First, the Wuhan flu is harmless to more than 99% of the population. If you are under 70 and healthy and get the virus, you are going to survive it. Period. And I say this from personal experience, as I am 68, have both asthma and a heart condition, and I just survived COVID. It wasn’t pleasant, but after two weeks it is over, and here I am.
More important, the numbers and data prove my anecdotal experience, as I noted in a detailed essay in October 26, 2021 — How deadly is COVID-19, really? — using numbers from the CDC as well as the New York Times. More than 99% of the population survives COVID-19, with no serious long term issues.
Since then the CDC has updated its estimates of the number of people who have been infected by the Wuhan flu, compared to the numbers who have died, as shown in the screen capture to the right. Based on these numbers, 146 million have been infected by COVID (a little less than half the country) and 921,000 have died, resulting in an overall survival rate for anyone who gets COVID-19 as a robust 99.37%.
And that number is deceiving, because the large bulk — almost all — of those in that 0.63% who died were elderly (average age 78) and very sick (with one to three morbidities). A very few were younger, but were generally in very poor healthy (obese or with diabetes).
If you were part of the general healthy population, COVID-19 was harmless to you. In fact, half the country already knows this, as they have been infected and are alive to tell about it. Most had minor symptoms, though many (like myself) got sick for several weeks and then recovered. All however survived, just like the flu.
COVID-19 simply does not merit any special actions, other than to protect that elderly and very vulnerable population. Ordinary people must stop being afraid of it. Take off the masks. Rip down the plexiglass. Hug your friends. Return to normal life.
And most important, stop being afraid!
Second, knowing how relatively harmless COVID-19 is, we also now know that none of the panicked policies imposed by state and federal governments worldwide did the slightest to slow the virus’s spread. Like all similar respiratory illnesses, it is contagious, and it is going to spread through the population naturally. We could never have stopped it.
Let me quote Sarah Hoyt from Instapundit today, as she sums up the madness of government policy for the past two years quite succinctly:
[I]n what world — even a candy floss sky one — did it make sense to close local grocery stores but keep Walmart open? In what world did it make sense to direct flow in stores so everyone crammed in through the same door, and everyone walked the same path (thereby a crowded/grimy, etc. path)? In what world did reducing hours of stores make sense? In what world did it make sense to wear a mask to your table then remove it to eat? (Are you less contagious when sitting?) In what world did curfews make sense? In what world did mask mandates outside in botanic gardens and zoos make sense? In what world did it make sense that you were hectored for getting out and driving around, while remaining your car?
In what world did the government stomp on every — no matter how crackpot or inocuous — rumored treatment? In what world, despite all studies to the contrary, do two layers of thin fabric stave off viral infection? In what world are doctors and nurses laid off by the thousands during a supposed pandemic? And finally in what world does it make any sense that a completely ineffective — if not … counterproductive — vaccine is being forced on the population by government mandate?
Only in an insane world do these stupid rules make sense. Or they might make sense in a world where the governments that imposed these insane rules have a different goal, to gain power and to smash its boot into your face forever.
That goal however only can work if the government succeeds in making you afraid. Are you still afraid of COVID?
Then stop being afraid! So what there is a new variant, Omicron, that appears very contagious. It also appears relatively harmless, and besides, you likely already have natural immunity, since at least half of the American population has already been infected with COVID. With natural immunity Omicron is nothing more than a boogy-man monster hiding in the closet that little children cower in fear from.
Are you a child, also cowering in fear? Or are you an adult willing to live life to the fullest, facing the normal risks of life?
Obviously, the college students at the University of Michigan were not cowering in fear last week (November 27, 2021):
They clearly have had enough, and are not going to pay attention any longer to the fear-mongers in the White House, in the CDC, in the leftist mainstream press, in Australia, in Austria, and Germany. They are going to resume normal life, because they know the fear-mongering is a lie that must be ridiculed and ignored with as much energy as possible.
So I once again plead: Stop being afraid! Get out there and live life, and tell any control freak that tries to stop you to go jump in a lake. Even better, tell them to stop being afraid. We have too much fear right now, and none of it does any of us any good, at all.
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Mr. Z:
An infection fatality rate of 0.63% for Covid in America that you state here seems unlikely to be high. The actual infection fatality rate is around 0.23% on average worldwide. Determined by the leading scientist in his field: John P. A. Ioannidisa. See the WHO link below.
“Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data”
Results: “I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection death rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. At 51 locations, the average death rate from COVID-19 infections was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%). In locations with a COVID-19 population death rate less than the rate was 0.09% on a global average ( 500 COVID-19 deaths / million people. In those under the age of 70, death rates from infection ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with raw and corrected medians of 0.05%.”
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/340124/PMC7947934.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Questioner: Sure, I agree. The point however remains the same. Even with the higher numbers pushed by the CDC this remains a relatively harmless respiratory illness.
What is it that you do need to fear?
An overreaching Leftist driven agenda government that is desperately in need for a reason to overreach.
I agree with the overriding conclusion of the post. The number of people in the U.S. mortally threatened (ie needing hospitalization) of covid was about 4 in 1000 per year. The number of covid-19 induced deaths is about half of that(0.2% of the population)…hardly an existential crisis warranting the egregious devastation of an economy, personal finances, private businesses, education, and the social health and happiness of entire societies.
However Covid -19 was about 15 times as lethal as normal flu, for the usual susceptible groups. The vaccine probably does greatly reduce lethality and severity, especially in the susceptible groups, and is probably a good idea for most(but definitely need not and should not be mandated). The extraordinary lock-down measures DID work in certain countries until the vaccine became available, especially low density countries. But the price is FAR to high for my liking, as stated above…especially when any susceptible individual can go into virtual personal lock-down on there own accord (ie dropping out of all social contact, ordering groceries, etc.) without forcing others to do the same.
Also, it is likely many more people were infected than the CDC knows. So the mortality per infection is probably lower than they estimate.
The fact that the average age of death is 78 years is stunning and probably not known by most people…however probably very important to those who are 78 :)
Another question is whether all those who were attributed to Covid really died from the Covid disease as the cause . This is of course not the case. In addition to false positive tests (too high CT value), the number of people who died of the serious underlying disease and “only” had Covid is also counted. The previous scheme of naming the underlying disease as the cause of death has been abandoned. As explained by the doctor and scientist Prof. Dr. Paul Cullen in the video I linked. I link it here again. Please switch on the English-language subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsyYP2_zBYI
I have to ask the fearful … what’s next, locking us out of our refrigerators to prevent heart disease – which kills as many/more people per year than WuFlu has to date ???
This hits home with me … because WuFlu disruptions in 2020 played a big part in it taking five months from the first indications to find I had a ticking time bomb – a 90%-plus blockage in the area of the heart known as the “widowmaker” – and deal with it with stents.
And, even with that co-morbidity and a couple of others, I survived WuFlu … perhaps in part because I got one of the monoclonal-antibody therapeutics early on. But knowledge of therapeutics is suppressed because THE VACCINE WILL SAVE US!
The tunnel-vision generated by fear and submission to “established authority” blinds many to the total threat matrix we face as humans … and enables totalitarian rule.
Is COVID real? Yes. Is it an existential threat worthy of burning down our economy and education process to save us from it? NO!, and the science says so when read in the context of history and the total threat matrix that we face as individuals, instead of obsessing over one threat.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself.
My own council will I keep on when to be afraid!
The odds are ever in my favor. (based on age and state’s own statistics).
Life is a game of chance, whether it’s COVID, driving to work, cancer, aneurism, stroke, etc. etc. People need to do a realistic risk analysis and go about their lives as they see fit. Unfortunately, the consistent fear porn from corporate media means many are deranged psychotics, and incapable of rational thought. They need to be reminded that they don’t get to decide how I go about my life.
Omicron wreaks havoc and panic worldwide as the WHO hopes for the first of several Omicron deaths. Our fearful leaders seem to fear that Omicron isn’t very deadly at all.
m d mill,
You wrote: “However Covid -19 was about 15 times as lethal as normal flu, for the usual susceptible groups.”
This is the fear and panic that Robert is talking about.
We know that more people have died in the past two years than are accounted for by the official, corrupted Wuhan flu data, meaning that hundreds of thousands have died from the government reaction and the panic. Far more, since we know that the official Wuhan flu data is corrupted and overstates the deaths from this flu. The fearful reaction may be as deadly as the Wuhan flu itself. The reaction is still destroying more lives and livelihoods than the Wuhan flu ever did.
The models said that if we took the measures that we did in March 2020, we would only have 60,000 deaths from Wuhan flu, but after doing far, far more than the models recommended, we have attributed 15 times as many deaths to the Wuhan flu, even the deaths from regular flu, the number of which has dropped to near zero this past year and a half. There have been virtually no pneumonia deaths, either. The Wuhan deaths have been greatly exaggerated, causing us to fear it more than we should.
It isn’t the Wuhan flu we should fear, it is the reaction to it. My fear is that the county will shutdown the museum I volunteer for, if people don’t obey the county edict that everyone wear masks indoors. We are not supposed to fear our government, that is a sign of tyranny. Who is stupid enough to ban and confiscate treatments and to fire nurses and doctors when they are needed most? Yet these are just some of the many stupid dictates that have befallen us.
Edward: “This is the fear and panic that Robert is talking about.”
As to lethality…Covid-19 killed roughly 15 times the number (of the usual susceptible groups) than that of a recent normal or average flu season (of the same susceptible groups). Over the last decade flu deaths/season in the US average 35,900 .
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html. The number of total US deaths above the decadal average/year is ROUGHLY 550,000 .
550,000/36,000=15 …ROUGHLY.
As to attribution, the increasing difference of total deaths/month from the recent decadal norm started sharply in about March 2020 at the time of the great china-covid infection increase and increased to about 550,000/year above the norm roughly. What else was the cause? Are the elderly and weak dying at an increased 550,000 per year rate since march 2020 by coincidence?
It does not matter that many of these people had other diseases or were elderly and weak BECAUSE this is the same group that dies of “normal” flu. The approximate 2 week lagging correlation of death rate spikes with known infection rate spikes is again hardly coincidental and further indication of the cause/effect relation of covid-19 to these deaths.
Whether this is a flu virus or not, it is roughly 15 times as lethal as the “normal” flu.
In the reference link sited by RZ:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-the-unwarranted-panic/
is the quote “This is a death rate[in S. Korea] of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so.”
Thus, an early confirmation from RZ himself that Covid-19 is roughly a factor of 9 worse than “common” flu viruses, and not “quite comparable to the ORDINARY flu”.
Edward says this extraordinary excess death rate of half a million/year is mostly due to suicides and other indirect government covid over-reaction. This does not seem reasonably credible to me. If he or RZ or anyone can justify this extraordinary assertion with national statistics then lets see it. I originally held this view (or hope) of flu like mortality rates myself, but the facts would not support it. This is not “fear and panic” talking, but simple rationality. Edward’s and RZ’s response to these facts sounds more like confirmation bias, or an inability to simply admit they were wrong, as I was also.
I find these statements with regard to covid-19 lethality specifically, and the fervid attempts to find other causes, bizarre. Such questionable statements simply fan the flames of general public fear and dismissal of “right wing nuts”.
Although I agree with the overriding conclusion of the post. The number of people in the U.S. mortally threatened (ie needing hospitalization) of covid was about 4 in 1000 per year. The number of covid-19 induced deaths is about half of that(0.2% of the population)…hardly an existential crisis warranting the egregious devastation of an economy, personal finances, private businesses, education, and the social health and happiness of entire societies.
I can’t think of a more exciting time in history to be alive. What a privilege.
I would like to say the following to everyone who, despite all the facts that I have presented here and here, still see Covid as a dangerous disease for society as a whole:
It is undisputed that the average age (and also the median value) of those who died of Covid is a few years above average life expectancy. That means nothing else – and this logical conclusion cannot be refuted – than that Covid has no influence on the vitality of the entire population and that, statistically speaking, those people who died of or with Covid, on average, would have died about at the same age without having Covid!
If not from Covid, then from another disease that is not fatal in itself, but which would also have been added as the “last drop” of the serious underlying disease that resulted to death.
Unfortunately, the consistent fear porn from corporate media means many are deranged psychotics, and incapable of rational thought.
John, many are, particularly among the sub-species of humanity known as Karens.
But far more are in the grip of something more banal, and therefore more pervasive and intractable. It is a tenet of the social technocracy that we have lived in for the last century-plus:
This was deeply embedded in our thinking, starting with the first admonition to “listen to Teacher, because she’s right” – with no demand on Teacher to explain WHY she is right at a level the students can understand and buy into. (One reason I don’t just fall in line, is because my own parents took the time to make sure I understood WHY they were issuing a directive to me – “because we say so” was used very sparingly by them in my upbringing.)
We have replaced a healthy respect for wisdom from all sources – particularly our own, informed, common sense – with a blind trust in “established authority” on the basis of their mere media-inflated appearances, to a level approaching that of worshipers in a cargo cult.
Which is one reason why the societal infection known as Progressive ideology keeps making a comeback, even after it is discredited by reality.
As to the vaccine “working,” the LATimes just published the numbers. Out of 6.1M vaxxed who still got COVID in the county…0.6% have died and about 3% were hospitalized. I know that’s out of confirmed cases, but there’s no “90%” reduction in severe Covid after infection in vaccinated. All the benefit is coming from reduced (confirmed) infection rates both in LA County and also in Alameda county, where the CFR in October (full data) is exactly the same now as it was last October.
“As to lethality…Covid-19 killed roughly 15 times the number (of the usual susceptible groups) than that of a recent normal or average flu season (of the same susceptible groups).”
No it did not. What happened is the numbers were inflated by medical providers wishing to get COVID money from government, and also government policy: All people checked into hospital are checked for Covid (with inaccurate PCR test ), and if they die they are marked as dying with covid which is part of the hundreds of thousands numbers you are talking about.
Italy just revised its death numbers down 90%.
Issue: we live in an age so vapid that the cannabis-infused musings of George Lucas pass for wisdom.
“Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.”
Living in fear *is* suffering.
The etymology of angry is literally “to be in pain”.
But people will not admit (especially to themselves) that they are either, lest they be seen as becoming evil (again, especially to themselves).
“Life is pain, Princess. Anyone who tells you differently is selling something.”
(Checks self-awareness meter. )
There’s a related rant on tolerance, but I think I’ve filled my pretentiousness quota.
COVID-19 simply does not merit any special actions
A minor quibble on this: It is a rather nasty form of flu for some, and so I think certain treatments should be stockpiled for a bit more readiness. So, bundles of HCQ/Z-Pack should be pre-assembled so they can be prescribed immediately to people showing symptoms. That is a cheap, effective method of treatment for most, if implemented early, and could be set up with relatively low cost for maximum effect.
Only in an insane world do these stupid rules make sense.
Which means in a world where Safetyism is the operative mindset. Where people have learned that, with the right drugs, treatments, and healthy living, they can, just maybe, live forever. This is one of the places where Progressivism departs from known reality. But it sure doesn’t seem false to the masses clamoring to avoid death AT ALL COSTS and to live forever in this world.
m d mill
December 6, 2021 at 1:37 pm
However Covid -19 was about 15 times as lethal as normal flu, for the usual susceptible groups.
Except for kids. Kids are normally more susceptible to the flu, and this bug hardly touched them at all.
Jester Naybor
December 7, 2021 at 5:23 am
You nailed one part of it. The other is the belief that death can be cheated with enough drugs and the right lifestyle. Even ‘conservatives’ are susceptible to it.
Questions to be asked in a court of law of any doctor familiar with the vaccine and vaccine policies. Under oath. :
Q: Dr., is it true that the mRNA vaccines being used to deal with the Covid pandemic are a brand new technology that has never been used at the level it is being used on humanity?
A: Yes, that is true.
Q: Dr., Can you tell me what the potential long term negative effects of the never before used mRNA vaccine technology being used en masse on humanity is?
A: No. That information does not exist. The usual time taken to establish the safety of any drug or therapy is between 5 and 10 years.
Q: Dr., in your opinion is it a wise policy for the government to only promote the injection of this mRNA brand new long term unproven safety as per normally accepted protocols technology to protect the population from Covid at the almost absolute exclusion of all other therapies and drugs demonstrated to be effective as well as the accepted through research supplements in combatting such viruses?
A: No.
Q: Dr., will it be the vaccines that will end the Covid pandemic?
A: No, the vaccines given their currently unproven safety record and existing outside of the regular drug safety protocols and the fact that there is growing evidence that the mRNA spike protein vaccines do have some very negative documented health effects on a significant number of people in the general public. The experimental vaccines should be used on those who are older and more at risk with the several co morbidities demonstrated to be a risk.
And the questioning goes on from there.
Where there is risk there must be choice.
“If you are under 70 and healthy and get the virus, you are going to survive it. Period. ”
Yeah…no. Tell that to my wife’s 32 yo nephew….no wait, you can’t. He’s dead. My own 32 yo cousin was on a ventilator for weeks. That isn’t to say this thing is not over-hyped but neither is it the “normal flu”. It is quite clear people were playing gain-of-function games and quite, quite a coincidence that the first cases of this came from the same place these games were being played. China. China and even apparently our own government, created a minor monster. Next time it may not be so minor. But this thing was not normal.
You’re afraid?
Well this will be provided to all Conservatives free of charge should the tension become too much for them. I believe it may be in the Democrats “Infrastructure” bill. Free of charge! They have to get rid of you somehow.
https://www.designboom.com/technology/sarco-assisted-suicide-pods-3d-printed-legal-switzerland-12-07-2021/
“dr. nitschke, founder of exit international (see more here), champions the pod as a more peaceful alternative for those wishing to die. he explains in an interview with swiss journal SWI: ‘death takes place through hypoxia and hypocapnia, oxygen and carbon dioxide deprivation, respectively. there is no panic, no choking feeling.’ (Would be a dr. nitschke)
with his assisted suicide pod ‘sarco,’ philip nitschke seeks to ‘de-medicalize’ the dying process. he notes that currently, a doctor need to be involved to prescribe the patient with sodium pentobarbital and to confirm their mental capacity. the exit international founder aims to remove any kind of psychiatric review from the process and allow the individual to control the method themselves.
in lieu of a psychiatric review, the company is developing an artificial intelligence screening system to determine the person’s mental capacity. acknowledging the natural skepticism, especially from psychiatrists, nitschke notes the original concept, which involves an online test and an access code for the sarco.
(And we all know who needs a check up from the neck up, beginning with the current president himself.)
DavidM no Italy has not “revised its death numbers down 90%”.
https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N2S0014?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16388999161340&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Ffactcheck-italy-deathsnotreduced-idUSL1N2S0014
“I Won’t Back Down” –
Five Times August (May, 2021)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVM63IkTu1I
2:19
Jester Naybor: “Which is one reason why the societal infection known as Progressive ideology keeps making a comeback, even after it is discredited by reality.”
Spot on— the only deadly pandemic we face is the pandemic of leftism.
I fear the Covid. I’m older, overweight, not in the shape I was at 40, with COPD and pretty severe sleep apnea. But I continue to live my life … hopefully in an intelligent manner. As a retired person, I shop when the stores are less crowded. I have a clean mask in my pocket and several new ones in the glove compartment but almost never use on these days. I’ve got my watered down hydrogen peroxide as a surface sterilizer, and strong soap and hand sanitizer. I don’t think any of that does much good, but it doesn’t hurt.
I learned early on in this thing what the right vitamins and supplements are to maximize my immune system and I take the right amounts of them every day. I learned that the virus starts out in your ciliated epithelial cells in your nose and mouth, read all the oral/nasal rinse studies, and found the effective products that work that I can tolerate. Every time I get back home, it’s wash up and gargle the Listerine and have a few snorts of PCP-I up the schnoz. I’ve kept abreast of nearly every treatment and medical trial that’s come along, and chosen the ones that appear to work as prophylaxis and early treatment, and I’ve got those on hand. I studied up on “pony paste” and determined that the injectable livestock liquid is completely safe to take orally, and just as effective as the prescribed pills for 1/50 the price. So I have enough of that on hand just in case, and know exactly how much to dose the both of us should we need to, treatment or long term prophylaxis. Currently I’m also taking nigella sativa oil and honey as well, with a big bag of the seeds in the closet, just in case. Finally got some Quercetin Phytosome, which is 20 times more effective than regular Quercetin, and is effective as HCQ for early treatment with zinc but requires no prescription. Just in case.
I’ve got the Zelenko, FLCCC, and other protocols memorized at this point. And should the SHTF, I’ve followed the monoclonal antibody studies, and determined that the REGEN-COV from Regeneron works the best, so I made the effort to find what hospitals around me use it. I don’t see how much more prepared I can be, so I get on with life. And after 6 negative tests since this began, and no slab jabs of any kind, I still haven’t had it (or any other illness since getting on the vitamin bandwagon). I’m tempted to spend the money to get a T-cell test to see if I have carryover immunity from previous colds and flus, as knowing that would be reassuring.
So I don’t live in fear. Not out of arrogance, but from awareness and preparedness.
Drew458: It sounds like you have taken the exact correct precautions so that you are properly prepared when (not if) you finally get COVID. I did the same, and it worked to have HCQ and zinc ready, and then get the monoclonal antibody treatment. My big mistake was getting the latter later than I should have. Do it right away, as soon as you feel sick.
My only disagreement is your faith in masks, especially one that you say is “clean” and in your pocket. It is not clean, if that how you store it. The mask will not protect you, and if it isn’t kept totally sanitized, it very likely can help transmit the virus to your face, especially if you touch it without thinking.
You are much better off washing your hands frequently and allowing yourself to breath freely.
Drew458: Above all, do not stop living! For the last 20-plus months I never wore a mask, went about my life as normal as possible, and enjoyed it. It took 20-plus months to finally get the Wuhan flu, and so now that’s over and I have natural immunity.
The result is that I have not cowered in fear, and had I been foolish enough to do so it would have accomplished nothing except make me miserable.
Live with courage. Live with joy. And stop being afraid.
Bob – I very much enjoy your space news as well as your social/political commentary. I especially admire your understanding of the COVID-19 epidemic. I am a retired university faculty member and I taught immunology plus cell/molecular biology (among other subjects) for over 3 decades. Your understanding is better than most MDs and MUCH better than most public health officials.
Covid, just a bad flu?
https://youtu.be/5oLbZLrcE3c
An interesting graph.
Be afraid!
https://youtu.be/X_UUOb-eXxQ
Australia a budding Covid Nazi state?
If it can happen there, it can happen anywhere.
Where does Australia go from here? Right down the rabbit hole? Where does it stop? How far will the authorities go to “Protect” everyone? Will the Australian people be allowed to vote for a political player that does not believe in the current oppressive state model to lead them?
This is not good.
Why is an empty suit Liberal / Leftist like DeBlasio the mayor of NYC?
https://youtu.be/HU8oWdTLPMM 3 min.
“It seems safe”.
Liberals, a danger to themselves and others, always.
m d mill,
You wrote: “The number of total US deaths above the decadal average/year is ROUGHLY 550,000 .”
The data is too corrupt to draw even this rough conclusion.
Robert uses the corrupted data and concludes that even at this excessive number, the danger of this flu is overstated. Claiming that this flu is 15 times more deadly than a regular flu is scare mongering. It looks at the death rate in a different and scary way. Even if true the reaction was not warranted, especially since the reaction violated virtually everything that we ever learned about preventing the spread of disease. Rather than looking at how few people die of it or looking at who needs the protection, you provide a broad declaration that makes it seem worse than it actually is. The panic caused deaths that should never have happened.
“What else was the cause?”
Had you read my comment, you would already know. Oh, wait, you did read it, but then you put into my mouth words that I didn’t say.
The last graph in this essay is from the CDC data. The dotted lines (red and green) are total deaths minus deaths attributed to Wuhan flu. These dotted lines show that there are more deaths than we would have expected had there not been a Wuhan flu, that there had been a regular year. Since they cannot be from Wuhan flu, then they must be from the reaction to the flu. The drop-offs at the end are due to delays in data collection by the CDC, which can be up to 8 weeks. The green line and green dotted line should be accurate up to week 40.
https://wmbriggs.com/post/38241/
Focusing exclusively on the flu has given you only a small picture look, which drives you to think that the danger is great. It is, for those most vulnerable, but not for the rest of us, who could have had natural immunity enough to provide herd immunity, but instead our fearful leaders panicked, protected the least vulnerable, sent the ailing directly into collections of the most vulnerable, and too many of us continue to panic, including you, m d mill, otherwise you would not present the data in a chicken little frame of mind. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that the efforts taken to protect the entire population would have been better used to protect the vulnerable population.
Rather than achieving herd immunity, we have prevented it, and now vulnerable people such as Drew458 still have to take undue precautions — or would have been undue, had we achieved herd immunity.
“or an inability to simply admit they were wrong, as I was also.”
Your inability to accept that your “15” number is not only wrong but unverifiable shows that your inability to admit being wrong is present tense, not past tense. I’ve backed up my reasonable assertion with national statistics before, which is why they are reasonable assertions, but you refused (and I predict will continue to refuse) to accept them. Talk about confirmation bias!
GWB wrote: “So, bundles of HCQ/Z-Pack should be pre-assembled so they can be prescribed immediately to people showing symptoms.”
This is what they did after the previous SARS outbreak, but at the beginning of Wuhan flu our fearful leaders banned its use rather than prescribe them immediately to people showing symptoms. It is one of the many lessons from the past that was ignored and violated by our fearful leaders, this time.
OMICRON MUTATION RESULTS IN COMMON COLD?
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This is a quick video by, Dr. Hong, who is not a medical doctor, he is a doctor of pharmacy, holds a PHD in pharmaceutical science, teaches and conducts research. He lays out some initial genetic characteristics recently revealed about the Covid / Omicron variant:
https://youtu.be/OxicF73Yim0 3 min.
I find that, Dr. Hong has a simple way of explaining what can be complex things in the biological / drug field.
It appears that the Omicron variant has possibly acquired a genetic mutation from someone who had the common cold and is similar to it as a result. Omicron does appear to be more transmissible, and the Delta variant is still lurking around so this pandemic event is not over. But it looks to be dialing down. Stay tuned as this further plays out.
Time to shut down, mandate experimental vaccines, have government enlist private businesses to police the public for their papers, further create fear and further divide the people of America? I do not think so.
Do you think that our government agencies concerned with heath and drugs might first promote and provide to the public the proven supplements and existing therapies demonstrated to be effective against Covid and in general improve peoples heath in battling this and many other illnesses? Don’t be silly, that is rational.
Remember, Dr. Fauci himself revealed through a FOIA obtained email takes 6000IU of vitamin D every day. But he does not tell you to do the same.
I find that curious to say the least.
I must reiterate, with added emphasis and facts:
As to lethality…Covid-19 killed roughly 15 times the number (of the usual susceptible groups) than that of a recent normal or average flu season (of the same susceptible groups). Over the last decade flu deaths/season in the US average 35,900 .
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html. The number of TOTAL US deaths above the decadal average/year is ROUGHLY 550,000 .[Actually from week 12 2020 to week 11 2021 the total deaths is 3,519,000…for 2019 the total=2,855,000.
Thus, the extra increase/year during the worst of the pandemic was about 664,000 … but let us not quible.]
This is not a “CORRUPT” number as DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES ARE NOT EASILY FAKED OR CORRUPTED AND ARE VERY ACCURATE.
550,000/36,000=15 …ROUGHLY.
As to attribution, the increasing difference of total deaths/month from the recent decadal norm started sharply in about March 2020 at the time of the great china-covid infection increase and increased to about 550,000/year above the norm roughly. What else was the cause? Are the elderly and weak dying at an increased 550,000 per year rate since march 2020 by coincidence?
Edward says this extraordinary excess death rate of half a million/year is mostly due to EXTRA deaths by suicide, cancers, heart disease, and other indirect causes due to government covid over-reaction, such as restricting Hospital services. This does not seem reasonably credible to me. If he or RZ or anyone can justify this extraordinary assertion with national statistics then lets see it.
[Edwards justification is the plot of the CDC’s “estimate” of Covid caused deaths..But aren’t the CDC’s numbers corrupted and unreliable as Edward and others have been saying? I certainly do not trust them. That is why I use total deaths versus total deaths. It is difficult to ascertain cause when multiple diseases are acting together, especially in the elderly and infirmed; and this is what Edward and others have been saying for over a year, and I agree! https://wmbriggs.com/post/38241/ ]
HOWEVER, fortunately we have the Swedish experiment as a test. The lethality of Covid-19 in Sweden is also ROUGHLY 15 times as great as normal “Swedish” flu using the same calculation, BUT THEY DID NOT INSTITUTE MOST EXTRAORDINARY LOCKDOWN’S OF THEIR SOCIETY OR HOSPITALS. Therefore the effect of these extra deaths due to government/hospital over-reaction to the covid virus seems to have little impact on the mortality calculation, ie the effects of these indirect causes of death is apparently small compared to the covid virus itself. I am not saying there is no such effect, the restrictions on hospitals was ludicrous…But that effect was seemingly relatively small. Even if you accept the plot Edward provided (which reduces “Covid” deaths by about 140,000/year) and use the more accurate 664,000 death/year year over year total death increase (see above), you can calculate (664,000-140,000)/36,000= 14.55 increased lethality, which is still ROUGHLY 15 times as lethal than “normal” flu!!
It does not matter that many of these people had other diseases or were elderly and weak BECAUSE this is the same group that dies of “normal” flu. The approximate 2 week lagging correlation of death rate spikes with known infection rate spikes is again hardly coincidental and FURTHER INDICATION OF THE CAUSE/EFFECT RELATION OF COVID-19 TO THESE DEATHS. Whether this is a flu virus or not, it is roughly 15 times as lethal as the “normal” flu.
I originally held this view (or hope) of normal flu like mortality rates myself, but the facts would not support it. This is not “fear and panic” talking, but simple rationality. Edward’s and RZ’s response to these facts sounds more like confirmation bias, or an inability to simply admit they were wrong, as I was also.
I find these statements with regard to covid-19 lethality specifically, and the fervid attempts to find other causes, bizarre. Such questionable statements simply fan the flames of general public fear and dismissal of “right wing nuts”.
In the reference link sited by RZ:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-the-unwarranted-panic/
is the quote “This is a death rate[in S. Korea] of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so.”
Thus, an early confirmation from RZ himself that Covid-19 is roughly a factor of 9 worse than “common” flu viruses, and not “quite comparable to the ORDINARY flu”. THUS THE EXTRAORDINARY NATURE OF THE COVID VIRUS WAS NOT UNEXPECTED EARLY ON.
Although I agree with the overriding conclusion of the post. The number of people in the U.S. mortally threatened (ie needing hospitalization) of covid was about 4 in 1000 per year. The number of covid-19 induced deaths is about half of that(0.2% of the population)…hardly an existential crisis warranting the egregious devastation of an economy, personal finances, private businesses, education, and the social health and happiness of entire societies.
DavidM:
No, you do not understand. I DON’T trust or USE the covid related death statistics you mention. That is why i use total deaths versus total deaths. Deaths are not fabricated or a judgement call. See the arguments above.
WGB:
No, kids are not a group susceptible to flu DEATH.
If you can find the death rate per year to Covid for people under 18 years age versus the same for “normal flu”, I would like to see that ratio…I don’t know the answer, but I expect the Covid death rates are higher.
“…you refused (and I predict will continue to refuse) to accept them.”
I called it.
m d mill is too frightened and emotional to accept reality. This must be one of the reasons for Robert urging us to stop being afraid.
Our fearful leaders are leading us down the path of various fallacies.
Early on, they declared that a model (which turned out to be a high school science fair project, not a well thought out, thoroughly tested scientific model) showed that we could prevent our medical facilities from being overrun if we all sheltered in place for a few days. When it appeared to work (though the evidence is that the facilities would not have been overrun anyway), they decided that more of this sheltering in place would be even better, imposing lockdowns. The Great Oppression began.
The fallacy is: if a little is good, more must be better. If a little selenium is good, we can’t live without it, then a lot must be better. Unfortunately, selenium is a deadly poison.
These days, it is declared that since the faux vaccines didn’t work, we must take boosters.
The fallacy is: if a little doesn’t work, more must be needed. They keep trying this with Keynesian Economics, too, trying larger and larger stimulus packages (these days posing as infrastructure “investments”), but with each increase in stimulus, the failure is larger.
In between, our fearful leaders banned or confiscated therapeutics that have been shown to work well on SARS diseases (Wuhan flu being officially named SARS-CoV-2).
The fallacy is: if it works, there will be a run on it, so we must prevent its use in order to avoid stampedes.
Our fearful leaders demanded that we wear masks in order to remind us that there is a very deadly disease out there, and we must signal that we each are more virtuous than everyone else. This leads to busybodies (AKA Karens) reminding us how much more deadly this flu is than our most mild flus, so we cannot point out how likely we are to survive should we contract it — that would be disinformation.
The fallacy is: we are in charge, so we must know best. Be fearful and obey.
m d mill chooses Sweden to “prove” his own story, despite the world’s data being corrupted just as is the U.S. data, yet he also uses this as proof that there are no excess deaths beyond the Wuhan deaths. This is yet another fallacy, a non sequitur.
He scatters in a lot of other cherry picked examples from around the world, assuming that any outlier data that he can find is proof. He also cherry picks the lockdowns as the only government reaction to the Wuhan flu, probably because he couldn’t find any data referencing the other reactions. The lockdowns are over, yet there are still many excess deaths this year, and there must be a cause, and the government reaction to Wuhan flu is the only major difference between these past two years and the past decade or five.
He also thinks that “by shouting louder than you, I must be right,” a “might makes right” fallacy.
Then he tells us that we must change our minds because he changed his mind, even though his mind was changed due to bogus data — a fallacy of argument from ignorance.
Finally, he keeps repeating his claim, as though that could possibly make it come true. This one is a real fallacy with its own name: argument by repetition. It means repeating an argument until everyone else is too exhausted to counter-argue any more, using that lack of interest as proof of correctness due to everyone else (supposedly) finally accepting the argument as true.
In responce to Edward, who refuted nothing with fact but inane hyperbole, I will reiterate:
As to lethality…Covid-19 killed roughly 15 times the number (of the usual susceptible groups) than that of a recent normal or average flu season (of the same susceptible groups). Over the last decade flu deaths/season in the US average 35,900 .
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html. The number of TOTAL US deaths above the decadal average/year is ROUGHLY 550,000 .[Actually from week 12 2020 to week 11 2021 the total deaths is 3,519,000…for 2019 the total=2,855,000.
Thus, the extra increase/year during the worst of the pandemic was about 664,000 … but let us not quibble.]
This is not a “CORRUPT” number as DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES ARE NOT EASILY FAKED OR CORRUPTED AND ARE VERY ACCURATE.
550,000/36,000=15 …ROUGHLY.
As to attribution, the increasing difference of total deaths/month from the recent decadal norm started sharply in about March 2020 at the time of the great china-covid infection increase and increased to about 550,000/year above the norm roughly. What else was the cause? Are the elderly and weak dying at an increased 550,000 per year rate since march 2020 by coincidence?
Edward says this extraordinary excess death rate of half a million/year is mostly due to EXTRA deaths by suicide, cancers, heart disease, and other indirect causes due to government covid over-reaction, such as restricting Hospital services. This does not seem reasonably credible to me. If he or RZ or anyone can justify this extraordinary assertion with national statistics then lets see it.
Edwards justification is the plot of the CDC’s “estimate” of Covid caused deaths..But aren’t the CDC’s numbers corrupted and unreliable as Edward and others have been saying? I certainly do not trust them. That is why I use total deaths versus total deaths. It is difficult to ascertain cause when multiple diseases are acting together, especially in the elderly and infirmed; and this is what Edward and others have been saying for over a year, and I agree! https://wmbriggs.com/post/38241/
EVEN if you accept the plot Edward provided (which reduces true “Covid” deaths by about 140,000/year) and use the more accurate 664,000 death/year [march thru march] total death increase (see above), you can calculate (664,000-140,000)/36,000= 14.55 increased lethality, which is still ROUGHLY 15 times as lethal than “normal” flu!!
It does not matter that many of these people had other diseases or were elderly and weak BECAUSE this is the same group that dies of “normal” flu. The approximate 2 week lagging correlation of death rate spikes with known infection rate spikes is again hardly coincidental and FURTHER INDICATION OF THE CAUSE/EFFECT RELATION OF COVID-19 TO THESE DEATHS. Whether this is a flu virus or not, it is roughly 15 times as lethal as the “normal” flu.
I originally held this view (or hope) of normal flu like mortality rates myself, but the facts would not support it. This is not “fear and panic” talking, but simple rationality. Edward’s and RZ’s response to these facts sounds more like confirmation bias, or an inability to simply admit they were wrong, as I was also wrong.
I find these statements with regard to covid-19 lethality specifically, and the fervid attempts to find other causes, bizarre. Such questionable statements simply fan the flames of general public fear and dismissal of “right wing nuts”.
In the reference link sited by RZ:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-the-unwarranted-panic/
is the quote “This is a death rate[in S. Korea] of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so.”
Thus, an early confirmation from RZ himself that Covid-19 is roughly a factor of 9 worse than “common” flu viruses, and not “quite comparable to the ORDINARY flu”. THUS THE EXTRAORDINARY NATURE OF THE COVID VIRUS WAS NOT UNEXPECTED EARLY ON.
Although I agree with the overriding conclusion of the post. The number of people in the U.S. mortally threatened (ie needing hospitalization) of covid was about 4 in 1000 per year. The number of covid-19 induced deaths is about half of that(0.2% of the population)…hardly an existential crisis warranting the egregious devastation of an economy, personal finances, private businesses, education, and the social health and happiness of entire societies.