Illustration showing the distance and time saved by going north
through the Arctic Ocean
A new report published by the American Geophysical Union, and touted by it though a press release today, says that while the melting Arctic Ocean icecap — caused by human-caused global warming — will make shipping more convenient, that shipping will be hindered by increased fog — caused by human-caused warming.
Arctic sea ice has been shrinking for decades. That loss has opened shipping channels in the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, allowing even non-icebreaker vessels to skip the time-consuming Panama and Suez Canals farther south. But as the ice recedes, cold air is exposed to more warm water, and warm vapor condenses into fog in those new passages. Hidden chunks of ice already pose risks to vessels making their way through foggy, low-visibility routes.
“The future of shipping in the Arctic is unclear, but fog could pose a significant challenge,” said Xianyao Chen, a physical oceanographer at the Ocean University of China and author of the study. “When designing shipping routes across the Arctic, we need to consider the impact of fog.”
In other words, everything that is going to happen will be bad, and it is all caused by human activity that must be stopped!
I am of course exaggerating for effect. The scientists who wrote the paper were merely trying to determine the amount of shipping delays increased fog could cause, so that companies could factor this information into their calculations. Granted, they assumed the climate is warming, and they also assumed this warming would produce more fog, but their entire study is an uncertain model, based on assumptions. Its conclusions are interesting and informative, if taken with this uncertainty in mind.
The real problem here has to do with the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which though claiming to be a publisher of legitimate peer-reviewed science has instead become an aggressive and absolutely certain advocate for human-caused global warming. Almost every press release from it touts the evils of global warming. None question the data or conclusions in any way. From the perspective of the scientific method, which make skepticism and doubt the primary considerations when reviewing any research, the AGU has abandoned that method entirely when it comes to climate science.
And like all ignorant global warming activists (Greta Thunberg comes to mind), the conclusion is always pessimistic and defeatist. Global warming will kill us, no matter what.
The future is dim, but not because of global warming, but because of this pessimistic and defeatist philosophy that now dominates our culture.
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