While all signs suggest that this week’s launch from Kazakhstan of another 36 OneWeb satellites will proceed as planned, later Soyuz-2 launches either from Russia or French Guiana now seem doubtful.

Russia has suspended all further Soyuz-2 launches from French Guiana. And though all the Kazakhstan launches have been paid for and Russia appears willing to proceed, the war has created issues.

But even if Baikonur remains open, it is unclear whether export restrictions could affect the transport of OneWeb satellites from where they are made in Florida to the launchpad in Kazakhstan.

Another potential wrinkle, unrelated to sanctions: OneWeb has traditionally used An-124 aircraft that are operated and maintained by Ukraine’s Antonov to ship its spacecraft overseas. Availability issues aside, airspace restrictions over Europe could complicate otherwise routine logistics.

It will not surprise me if OneWeb will look for other launch services, though this will certainly damage its bottom line. First, it will likely not get a refund from Russia for the Soyuz-2 launches, which means it will pay twice for those launches if it switches to another rocket company. Second, the war is likely going to delay further launches regardless, which will delay roll out of its service and thus prevent it from obtaining customers.