Update on SpaceX’s Starship and Superheavy
Link here. The article not only outlines the test program leading to the first launch of prototypes Starship #24 and Superheavy #7, it describes the status of later prototypes, as well as the construction of SpaceX’s Starship launch site in Florida. Key quote:
Booster 7’s gradual approach to static fire testing will allow the teams to fix issues as they test and fully mature procedures and software ahead of the long-awaited orbital flight of Starship. Should this gradual testing go without a hitch, it could culminate in one or perhaps even two 33-engine static fire tests of Booster 7 on the OLM [orbital launch mount].
Once this testing is completed and any issues found fixed, it’ll be cleared to proceed into another phase of testing: Ship 24 will then be stacked on top of Booster 7 for combined tests. This could include launch countdown simulations, an eventual full-up countdown, and a 33-engine static fire test.
SpaceX hopes to complete this by mid-next month and clear both vehicles for launch shortly after. However, as we’ve seen in the past few weeks, any issues encountered during this intense test campaign could well mean a slip to later into the year and, perhaps, into next year.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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Link here. The article not only outlines the test program leading to the first launch of prototypes Starship #24 and Superheavy #7, it describes the status of later prototypes, as well as the construction of SpaceX’s Starship launch site in Florida. Key quote:
Booster 7’s gradual approach to static fire testing will allow the teams to fix issues as they test and fully mature procedures and software ahead of the long-awaited orbital flight of Starship. Should this gradual testing go without a hitch, it could culminate in one or perhaps even two 33-engine static fire tests of Booster 7 on the OLM [orbital launch mount].
Once this testing is completed and any issues found fixed, it’ll be cleared to proceed into another phase of testing: Ship 24 will then be stacked on top of Booster 7 for combined tests. This could include launch countdown simulations, an eventual full-up countdown, and a 33-engine static fire test.
SpaceX hopes to complete this by mid-next month and clear both vehicles for launch shortly after. However, as we’ve seen in the past few weeks, any issues encountered during this intense test campaign could well mean a slip to later into the year and, perhaps, into next year.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Isn’t SpaceX transitioning from the “test-to-destruction, proof-of-concept” phase to the “prove to NASA and the insurers that SpaceX is a reasonably invest-able resource?
Takes time, takes attention to detail.
The Firefly/Serenity meme in me is driving me crazy.
Breathe, dude.
I wonder if Ship 26 and 27 could be destined for use as a Lunar Starship or a Fueling Depot prototype? It would be interesting to see, and could be a lower cost/faster option for additional booster qualification.
In a sense, the longer this takes, the more we feel invested in the need for a successful launch. It would perhaps have been nice to have a launch (FAA permitting) three or four months ago, even perhaps without a full suite of engines, just to get the vehicle off the ground clear of the tower and performing a separation at 20000ft, and controlled landings of both into the gulf. It would have been a good expenditure of V1 raptors.
There has been a lot of activity and improvements, both on the vehicle and the facilities, but it feels a bit more like old-fashioned progress (unproven) rather than the Musk way (blowing stuff up).
GaryMike asked: “Isn’t SpaceX transitioning from the “test-to-destruction, proof-of-concept” phase to the “prove to NASA and the insurers that SpaceX is a reasonably invest-able resource?”
SpaceX still has a couple of concepts left to prove. Reentry is not yet proven, and landing on the chopsticks still seems like fantasy, but if it works, it wouldn’t be the first time that SpaceX brought fantasy to life. In the meantime, Super Heavy is not guaranteed to get Starship to orbit, assuming Starship can get itself there, so Jeremy may yet see another SpaceX explosion.
Once orbit and reentry are successful, SpaceX will graduate to the phase of improving processes and development of production versions. They still need to develop all the variants, such as lunar lander, tanker (and propellant transfer), payload, cargo, and manned Starships. It is possible that the Mars transport version may be different than the regular manned version, and there may be various varietals of the payload Starship (e.g. “Pez dispenser” for satellites, and hinged fairing for larger payloads).
Since Starship already has four customers, investors are investing heavily, and NASA is counting on Starship to land Project Artemis on the Moon, I think that people already accept it as a reasonably investable resource. Insurance may be a little higher for the first few insured launches, though.