First flights of commercial manned capsules in 2018

According to a NASA presentation last month, it appears that both SpaceX and Boeing are aiming to complete both their first unmanned and manned flights this coming year.

The schedules remain tight, but SpaceX plans to do its first unmanned demo mission in April, followed by a manned flight in August, while Boeing’s first unmanned flight is set for August, with the first manned flight in November. If these schedules happen 2018 should be quite an exciting year.

Academic fascism in 2017

Rather than publish another weekly update on the fascist culture that presently dominates many American campuses, I thought I would look back on the year and compile a list of all the colleges I reported where acts of oppression or the silencing of free speech were carried out by the administration, facility, or student body.

There were many ways I could have compiled this list. In the end, I decided to list the colleges alphabetically by state, and then sort the states into three groups, based on how those states voted in the past two presidential elections. States that voted Democratic or Republican both times are grouped together as either Democratic- or Republican-dominated. States that flipped from one party to the other (all flipping Republican, by the way) were listed as battleground states. If a college had more than oppressive incident during the year the number of incidents is indicated in parenthesis.

Because the list is so long, I have placed it, as well my analysis of it, below the fold. Before you read on, make sure you scan down take a look at the list of colleges itself.
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Ringo Starr to be knighted

Ringo Starr, who grew up in the poorest of situations and was so sickly that he ended up getting almost no education, will be knighted by the Queen of England in the coming year.

The article paints a great picture of Starr, who always came off as the nicest and most endearing Beatle, and whose abilities on the drums in many ways cemented the band’s musical style. What makes my heart sing about this story however was how it demonstrates that it is still possible in the English-speaking world to come from nothing and rise to greatness. Starr’s poor background could have led to any number of bad ends, but he instead chose to play drums, and ended up helping to change the world’s musical culture.

The SpaceX light show yesterday

Falcon 9 launch, December 22, 2017

Numerous news articles today have noted that last night’s launch by SpaceX of ten Iridium satellites produced a somewhat unusual light show for Californians. Reader Frank Kelly sent me some images he took, noting,

I was able to catch the booster ascent, stage separation, second stage burn and what looks like the booster spinning with at least one engine firing. The spinning went on for a while so it must have had some fuel left.

I read SpaceX said they would not land this booster so maybe they had some fun with it for us folks in LA. It spun around for a minute like a pinwheel. A great show.

close-up of first stage maneuvers

The image above right is one of his images, reduced in resolution to post here. Below that is a cropped section of the full resolution image, showing the “pinwheel” being performed by the first stage. And as other readers of BtB have also noted, the launch crew was clearly performing engine tests and maneuvers with this first stage, all the way down to the ocean.

As is typical of SpaceX, they waste no opportunity to test their equipment and find out what it can do, on the extreme. I suspect these maneuvers were designed to push the first stage’s ability to recover from an out-of-control spin. From the call-outs by engineers during the launch, it appears that this test was a success, as it appears from those call outs that the first stage “landed” properly upright in the ocean.

Let me add that in reviewing some of the youtube videos posted by my readers in the comments below, I also think these first stage maneuvers might be tests in preparation for the first Falcon Heavy launch, which will involve landing three first stages at the same time, two landing very close together at Kennedy. The flight tests yesterday could be an effort to demonstrate how well they can program those first stages for their return.

SpaceX successfully launches 10 Iridium satellites

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully launched ten 10 Iridium satellites.

This launch for Iridium reused a first stage from a previous Iridium launch. This was the first time Iridium launched with a used first stage. SpaceX did not try to recover the stage, which could be for several reasons, including the possible desire by the customer that they devote their entire effort to getting the satellites in orbit.

This was also SpaceX’s last launch for the year. The launch standings for the year now are thus:

29 United States
19 Russia
18 SpaceX
15 China

Sometime in the first week of 2018 I will post a full table showing this year’s launches plus the launch totals going back to the early 1980s. It reveals a great deal about the history of the launch industry for the past half century, as well as where that launch industry is likely heading in the coming half century.

Russia to launch luxury hotel room module to ISS?

Capitalism in space: Roscosmos is considering a plan to launch a hotel module to ISS where it could house tourists for profit.

According to a detailed proposal seen by Popular Mechanics, the 20-ton, 15.5-meter-long module would provide 92 cubic meters of pressurized space. It would accommodate four sleeping quarters sized around two cubic meters each and two “hygiene and medical” stations of the same volume. Each private room would also have a porthole with a diameter of 228 millimeters (9 inches), while the lounge area of the module would have a giant 426-millimeter (16-inch) window.

The external structure of the tourist module looks like the Science and Power Module, NEM-1, which Russia is currently building for the International Space Station. The second NEM module had originally been on the books in the station’s assembly scenario, but the Russian government funded only one module. It will serve primarily as a science laboratory and a power-supply station for the ISS.

Now, Russia’s prime space station contractor, RKK Energia, came up with a scheme to pay for the second NEM module through a mix of private and state investments. To make profit, the NEM-2 would be customized for paid visitors.

Makes sense to me. Russia doesn’t really have the money right now to fund a big deep space exploration program. Better they aim for profits in space, as that will keep them in the black and provide them the capital they presently lack.

Japan’s Google Lunar X-Prize rover arrives in India for launch

Capitalism in space: The rover being built by the Japanese team competing for the Google Lunar X-Prize has arrived in India for installation on the PSLV rocket that will launch it into space.

The Sorato rover which is flight ready will be mounted on Team Indus lander at its facility in Jakkur. HAKUTO, one of the five teams competing for the Google Lunar XPRIZE, has signed a ride share agreement with Team Indus (India’s first private aerospace startup) for launching the Sorato along with the Indian rover.

Team Indus’s spacecraft, along with the two rovers, will also carry a few payloads and will be launched onboard ISRO’s workhorse, the PSLV-XL. The launch is expected to take place early next year (before March 8, 2018, the date set by Google to the five privately funded teams to launch the landers and the rovers on the Moon surface).

Several important details here. First, though the Japanese team appears to have all the necessary funds to pay for their flight, Team Indus is still searching for investment, and might not have the money to pay for its share of the flight. What will happen in that case is unclear.

Second, the word Hakuto in Japan means “white rabbit.” This name was chosen because Japanese folklore says a rabbit can be seen in the dark areas of the Moon’s face. This makes Japan’s rover the second rabbit to fly to the moon, after China’s Yutu rover, which in English means “jade rabbit” a name also based on Chinese folklore.

Benjamin Shapiro – Theme from Schindler’s List

An evening pause: Performed live in 1996, when Shapiro was twelve years old. Note that this is that Ben Shapiro, the orthodox Jew and well-known conservative columnist whom leftists ignorantly love to call a Jew-hater and white supremacist. How they come to that conclusion can only be because they are willfully ignorant or so filled with hate and their ideology that they can’t look at reality with any honesty.

I think, during this holiday season, it is wise to also reflect on humanity’s tragic failures, one of the worst of which was the Holocaust during World War II.

Hat tip Jim Mallamace.

This week in fascist academia

Time for another depressing update on the fascist and childish culture that unfortunately seems to presently dominate the college campuses of modern America. (To read my earlier updates, posted almost weekly since October, go here.)

To begin, below are some stories illustrating the fascist and intolerant nature of many college administrations:

In every case above, we either have the college administrations taking actions to suppress speech they did not like, or college facility announcing to the world that they haven’t the faintest understanding of freedom of speech or its fundamental basis for the establishment of western civilization.

The last story describes a recent Columbia Journalism Review report about how a number of universities have become very hostile to working journalists, and have even taken actions to have journalists arrested. The universities mentioned including the University of Colorado-Boulder, Keene State College, and two New York state colleges, Bronx Community College and Kingsborough Community College.

However, as I have noted in earlier updates, the fascist culture at academia is unfortunately not limited to the administrators and teachers. Many students advocate intolerance as well.
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Musk releases pictures of assembled Falcon Heavy in hanger

Falcon Heavy in hanger

Capitalism in space: Elon Musk today tweeted several pictures of the Falcon Heavy rocket, assembled in its hanger at Cape Canaveral and awaiting roll out for its first static fire tests on the launchpad.

As I will have nothing to do with Twitter, I must thank reader Michael Phillips for emailing me the photos. The one of the right I think shows the most detail. Note that the two side stages are previously flown Falcon 9 first stages. Only the central core has not flown before. According to previous reports, it required significant redesign to work in this configuration.

There is as yet no word on exactly when the roll out and launchpad static fire tests will take place, but all indications suggest it will be very soon. Whether the launch itself will follow several weeks later, as the link above says and has been stated many times by SpaceX, is more questionable. Remember, they have never fired all 27 engines of the threefold first stage at the same time. I am expecting that they will need time to review the data from that static fire test. I would be very surprised if their analysis and any changes it calls for will be doable in only a few weeks.

Local Florida officials battle over $8 million grant to Blue Origin

Local county officials in Florida are involved in a court fight over the decision by the county to borrow $8 million in order to pay a grant to Blue Origin for locating its factory there.

Brevard County commissioners narrowly approved a plan that would allow the county to borrow money to pay for an $8 million economic incentive to rocket manufacturer Blue Origin. The vote was 3-2, with Chair Rita Prichett and Commissioners Jim Barfield and Curt Smith supporting the proposal. Vice Chair Kristine Isnardi and Commissioner John Tobia voted against the plan.

Brevard County Clerk of Courts Scott Ellis told commissioners he plans to go to court to challenge the legality of the county borrowing money to pay for the grant to Blue Origin.

Isnardi is quoted in the article as saying “I don’t think it’s a great policy to give $8 million to a billionaire.” The opposition to this grant also questions the legality of borrowing money to pay it.

World View balloon explodes

Capitalism in space: A World View balloon exploded at its launch facility in Tucson yesterday.

No injuries were caused when a large, tethered test balloon ruptured as crews deconstructed it after a successful ground test to fill the balloon, World View spokesman Andrew Antonio said. The rupture resulted in a loud sound heard in the area, and a small fire on the balloon, he said. “We have reached out to reassure our immediate neighbors,” Antonio said. “There were no injuries and only superficial facility damage at the site.”

World View says it can use either helium or hydrogen gas to fill its stratospheric balloons but has initially been using hydrogen, which company officials have said is safe when handled properly.

World View also released its first images from a Stratollite balloon flight yesterday.

I think the second link demonstrates clearly that Stratollite is a good concept for high altitude reconnaissance. I think the first link demonstrates that hydrogen is still problematic for high altitude balloons.

Smallsat industry considering standardized “launch unit”

Capitalism in space: The emerging smallsat industry is considering establishing a standard “launch unit,” similar in concept to the standardized container system used by the shipping industry on Earth, to ease payload scheduling and installation on rockets.

“Developing a standard Launch Unit, or Launch-U, for mid-sized smallsats — approximately the size between a toaster and a small refrigerator — will enable rideshares to be configured more quickly and efficiently, resulting in more launch opportunities at a lower cost,” Aerospace representatives said in a statement. “Aerospace [Corporation] is driving the Launch-U conversation by assembling representatives from industry, academia and government to set the mid-size smallsats standard.”

For example, this standardized container concept would make it easier for a smallsat to switch launch rockets should its initial ride get delayed.

The industry has already attempted some standardization with the cubesat idea, which universities have been using now for several decades, a standard-sized satellite structure that is ten centimeters to a side. This launch unit concept would add the standardization to the launch vehicle, creating a standard slot within rockets that could easily take on new satellites.

Blue Origin still a year away from launch humans on New Shepard

Capitalism in space: Blue Origin revealed yesterday that it will still be a year at least before they start flying humans on their suborbital New Shepard spacecraft.

The company plans to later fly humans, both as payload specialists for human-tended experiments as well as on tourist flights. Those flights, though, are still at least a year away. “We’re probably a year and a half, two years out from when we’re actually able to fly tended payloads,” Ashby said. “We’re about roughly a year out from human flights, depending on how the test program goes. We have a bunch more tests to do, and we’re going to fly some human test flights before we put paying people in the rocket.”

Previously they had suggested they would be flying humans much sooner, possibly this year. Despite this new delay, last week’s test flight did include Blue Origin’s first paying customers, and the company indicated that they have sold space on all their upcoming unmanned test flights, and that their manifest for those upcoming flights is essentially full.

Though I know many disagree with me, I am increasingly doubtful there will ever be a viable suborbital tourist business. Once commercial orbital manned flights become available, I don’t see there being much profitable interest in such short suborbital experiences. The cost will be too high in comparison with the payoff. And it appears that those commercial orbital manned flights are going to be arriving at about the same time as New Shepard’s first manned flight.

Giant Stratolaunch plane conducts first taxi test

Capitalism in space: The giant Stratolaunch plane built out of two 747s completed its first taxi test yesterday.

Stratolaunch’s plane, nicknamed Roc, has the widest wingspan in the aviation world at 385 feet. That’s 50 percent wider than the wings of a Boeing 747 — which probably shouldn’t be surprising, considering that parts from two 747s went into building the plane. Mojave-based Scaled Composites aided in the fabrication of the plane’s carbon composite components.

I think a better way to illustrate the size of the wingspan is to note that if you laid a Saturn 5 rocket along those wings, it would not reach the tips at either end, being “only” 363 feet long.

Several experienced engineers at Behind the Black have previously wondered at whether the plane’s central structure holding its two fuselages together would be strong enough to provide a stable flight. Looking at the picture at the link, I must wonder the same thing.

XCOR bankruptcy revelations

XCOR’s bankruptcy has revealed how far the company was from actually building and flying its Lynx suborbital spacecraft.

In original financial filings, XCOR reported having $1,424.66 in cash.

No value was given to the Lynx MK1, a spaceplane in development that would take off and land horizontally. Between $15 million and $20 million would be required to finish the Lynx, according to documents. An estimated $25 million to $30 million was invested.

It is hard to say whether XCOR was a scam, or a good idea that simply never could get the investment capital to fly. In the end, however, it essentially turned out to be both. According the article, local government agencies in both Florida and Texas have lost millions from investments they made in the company in the hope it would produce jobs in their communities.

SpaceX launches Dragon and lands 1st stage

Capitalism in space: SpaceX this morning successfully launched a previously used Dragon cargo freighter to ISS as well as once again successfully landing the previously used first stage.

This was the first time NASA agreed to the use of a previously launched first stage. With the first stage and capsule both reused, only the second stage and one out of 10 Merlin engines was new and will not be available for further reuse.

I have embedded the launch video below the fold.

The standings for the most launches in 2017, as of today:

28 United States
18 Russia
17 SpaceX
15 China

Note that I am counting Soyuz launches for Arianespace out of French Guiana under Arianespace, not Russia. Also, the U.S. total includes SpaceX. I have separated SpaceX out to show how a single American company is competing aggressively with whole nations.
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India to build a smallsat rocket

Capitalism in space: India’s space agency ISRO has announced that it developing a smallsat rocket expressly designed to launch cubesats and thus compete with the new smallsat rocket companies now about to become operational.

ISRO has been very successful in providing a launch platform for smallsats on its PSLV rocket, but in this case the smallsats fly as secondary payloads, dependent on the needs of the larger primary satellite. It appears that the space agency has realized that their market share in this area is now threatened by the small rockets being developed by Rocket Lab and Vector, and is therefore moving to compete.

This announcement also provides more evidence that the space industry is splitting between smaller unmanned payloads and larger manned payloads. I predict that in ten years most unmanned satellites launched to circle the Earth will be tiny and launched on tiny rockets, while simultaneously we will see a new generation of giant rockets putting manned spacecraft into orbit and beyond.

Arizona’s Court of Appeals sides with Pima County on space balloon deal

Arizona’s second highest court has agreed with Pima County and approved a deal the county made, without competitive bidding, with the space balloon company World View.

In a unanimous ruling, the three-judge panel acknowledged the purpose of competitive bids is to ensure that the county — and, by extension, the taxpayers — gets the most money for the property. But Judge Peter Eckerstrom, writing for the court, said that does not apply when the real goal is not immediate income but longer-term economic development.

The Goldwater Institute, which brought the suit that claimed that the deal violated the state constitution because the lease was signed without competitive bidding, has said it will appeal to Arizona’s Supreme Court.

Vector gets launch contract

Capitalism in space: The smallsat rocket company Vector has signed a launch contract with Astro Digital.

Vector, a nanosatellite launch company comprised of new-space and enterprise software industry veterans from SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, McDonnell Douglas, Boeing, Sea Launch and VMware, today announced that it will join forces with Astro Digital, a leader in real-time satellite imagery data, to conduct a dedicated launch in 2018 featuring one of Astro Digital’s satellites for remote sensing applications. Astro Digital plans to engage Vector to launch at least twelve such satellites as part of a larger constellation, with an option to then continue operations at a pace of two to four dedicated satellite launches per year.

The press release notes that Astro Digital flew a test payload on Vector’s suborbital test flight on one of Vector’s two test flights, and that experience convinced the company to sign this new contract.

This week in fascist academia

The childish nature of modern American culture often gets me very depressed. Sadly, this depression is worsened by the fascist and intolerant culture that dominates much of America academia and that I have been noting with regular weekly reports since October. If our intellectual community acts like jack-booted thugs how can we expect our overall culture to be mature and civilized?

Anyway, here are a few more stories from the past week that unfortunately intensify my depression and the lack of enthusiasm I presently have for posting anything related to culture or politics. It all seems to be a cesspool, and horribly the academic community appears to relish the idea of swimming in it.

First, some stories indicating the close-mindedness and intolerance of the teaching community:

The second story is especially disturbing. The professor, Donna Riley, is head of the School of Engineering Education at Purdue. This is what she advocates for her school’s engineering program:

She claims that rigor can “reinforce gender, race, and class hierarchies in engineering, and maintain invisibility of queer, disabled, low-income, and other marginalized engineering students,” adding that “decades of ethnographic research document a climate of microaggressions and cultures of whiteness and masculinity in engineering.” She evens contends that “scientific knowledge itself is gendered, raced, and colonizing,” asserting that in the field of engineering, there is an “inherent masculinist, white, and global North bias…all under a guise of neutrality.”

To fight this, Riley calls for engineering programs to “do away with” the notion of academic rigor completely, saying, “This is not about reinventing rigor for everyone, it is about doing away with the concept altogether so we can welcome other ways of knowing. Other ways of being. It is about criticality and reflexivity.”

So, would you want to fly on a rocket built by engineers taught at Purdue, under this professor’s program?

Next we have stories that show that the intolerance is definitely not confined to the teachers, that the students are becoming as intolerant and as fascist.
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Sea Launch will assemble rockets in U.S.

Capitalism in space: S7, the Russian company that now owns Sea Launch, announced today that it plans to assemble its rockets in United States.

This means the dock for the floating launch platform will remain in California. The article also indicates that S7 will continue to use Ukrainian Zenit rockets, which the platform was designed for, despite the desire of the Russian government to cut off all dependence on Ukrainian technology. There is also this tidbit:

The S7 company, which is about to resume the Sea Launch program, has enough clients, S7 Group co-owner and chair of the board of directors Natalia Filyova told the press. “We have [launch] orders, there is a long line [of clients], and we offer a good price. We are expecting revenue, but this will not happen right away. We will be investing heavily but we realize that we will make money,” Filyova said.

No details of the clients or the launch schedule were announced, however, so I remain skeptical. Meanwhile, Roscosmos announced today that it is negotiating with Boeing for future space tourism flights. This second story is directly related to Sea Launch, but you would only know this if you read Behind the Black. To pay off Boeing, which used to be a half partner in Sea Launch and was owed $320 million by the Russians, Roscosmos gave Boeing an unspecified number of seats on future Soyuz capsules to sell to others. Two of those seats were sold to NASA.

These new negotiations probably are an effort to arrange further sales for Boeing to help it get its money back. Boeing’s lawsuit for that money has placed a lien on the Sea Launch platform, and until its concerns are satisfied, S7 really can’t begin operations.

Orbital ATK gets first FCC license approval for space repair mission

Capitalism in space: Orbital ATK has gotten its first FCC license approval for its Mission Extension Vehicle 1 (MEV-1) robotic space repair mission, set to launch late in 2018.

Space Logistics [a subsidiary of Orbital ATK] has a contract with fleet operator Intelsat of Washington and Luxembourg to provide in-orbit servicing with MEV-1 — the first in a proposed fleet of satellite servicers Dulles, Virginia-based Orbital ATK intends to build — with service beginning in early 2019.

In a public notice issued Dec. 8, the FCC authorized Space Logistics to use four different frequency bands for telemetry, tracking, and command (TT&C) of MEV-1 as the servicer completes post-launch maneuvers, reaches the graveyard orbit for decommissioned geostationary satellites some 300 kilometers above the geosynchronous arc, and attaches to Intelsat-901.

Space Logistics’ MEVs works by connecting to a satellite and taking over station-keeping, using fuel onboard the servicer to propel the satellite and extend its life. Most geostationary satellites are forced into retirement after 15 years or more due to a shortage of fuel. “It is in our plan for Intelsat-901 that at the end of the five-year life extension mission that we would return the IS-901 to the graveyard orbit and release them there. After that release the MEV would then proceed onto our next client,” Anderson said, adding that the next client has not yet been identified.

They will still need to obtain additional permits from both the FCC (for future operations) and from NOAA (because the spacecraft’s cameras, needed for docking, might also look at the Earth).

Why NOAA has this permitting power astonishes me, but then, in today’s government-run America, I probably should not be surprised. If we were trying to settle the west today we would likely have a whole range of government agencies requiring wagon train approval, route approval, and scheduling approval.

Blue Origin successfully flies upgraded New Shepard capsule

Capitlism in space: Blue Origin yesterday successfully completed the first flight of its upgraded suborbital reusable New Shepard spacecraft.

Further details noted this test was called Mission 7 (M7), featuring a next-generation booster – powered by its BE-3 engine – and the first flight of Crew Capsule 2.0, a spacecraft that now features real windows, measuring 2.4 x 3.6 feet.

The test flight also carried 12 payloads and even a passenger – specifically an instrumented dummy brilliantly named “Mannequin Skywalker”.

Further details noted the flight time was 10 minutes and six seconds, launching at 10:59 a.m. CT from Blue Origin’s West Texas test site. The booster achieved Mach 2.94 on ascent & Mach 3.74 on descent. It again showed its landing skills, as shown on the video released by Mr. Bezos.

I have embedded the company’s video below the fold.
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Rocket Lab launch aborted at engine start

Capitalism in space: The second test flight of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket was aborted just after engine start today (December 12 in New Zealand).

Members of Rocket Lab’s launch team called out ignition of the first stage’s engines as the countdown ticked off the final few seconds before liftoff, followed by an abort.

“Umbilicals in, power’s all up,” one member of the launch team called out over a loop broadcast on Rocket Lab’s live video stream. “Confirm Stage 1 engines have stopped,” an engineer later announced.

A countdown graphic on Rocket Lab’s video feed stopped at T-minus 2 seconds. “As you can see, the vehicle had an abort during the launch auto sequence,” said Daniel Gillies, Rocket Lab’s mission management and integration director who provided commentary on the company’s webcast. “At this stage of flight, the vehicle flight computer is actively monitoring a wide range of vehicle performance parameters, and when any of these parameters are violated, the vehicle determines that its not ready of flight and holds the count.”

The rocket is fine. Though they have not said what caused the abort, they have set their next launch attempt for two days from now, in the evening in the U.S.

Trump signs new space policy directive, making Moon 1st priority again

Yawn. President Trump today signed a new space policy directive that makes the Moon the U.S.’s first exploration priority again.

“The directive I am signing today will refocus America’s space program on human exploration and discovery,” said President Trump. “It marks a first step in returning American astronauts to the Moon for the first time since 1972, for long-term exploration and use. This time, we will not only plant our flag and leave our footprints — we will establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars, and perhaps someday, to many worlds beyond.”

As I wrote above, yawn. Same old same old. In 2004 Bush declared we will go to the Moon. In 2010 Obama declared we will go to an asteroid. In 2017 Trump declares we will go to the Moon.

In all those years, where have we actually gone? Nowhere. The government’s effort during all that time to build a rocket and a manned spacecraft to do any of this stuff has come up completely empty. Neither will carry humans into space for at least another five years, if not longer.

The only thing these empty promises have accomplished is to waste a god-awful amount of taxpayer money, now about $33 billion, with appropriations likely to increase that to more that $43 billion before that first manned SLS/Orion flight.

I predict that this government promise will come up empty as well, at least in the manner the government and NASA is trying to sell it. It won’t be the government rocket and capsule that will get us back to the Moon, but a host of new private companies, making profits and doing things efficiently and fast, that will get us there. And I am firmly confident that they will do it before the government even gets off the ground.

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