Is Iran on the edge of collapse?


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Link here. This short essay outlines a range of financial, economic, and fundamental problems facing Iran’s government that might lead to that country’s entire collapse.

Before we wax too eloquent about the democratic aspirations of the great Iranian people, we should keep in the mind that the most probable scenario for Iran under any likely regime is a sickening spiral into poverty and depopulation. Iran has the fastest-aging population of any country in the world, indeed, the fast-aging population of any country in history. It has the highest rate of venereal disease infection and the highest rate of infertility of any country in the world. It has a youth unemployment rate of 35% (adjusted for warehousing young people in state-run diploma mills). And worst of all, it has run out of water.

We might be observing the birth of Iranian democracy in the protests of the past few weeks, but it is more likely that we are watching the slow-motion train wreck of a once-great nation in all its gory detail. As I noted in an Asia Times analysis this morning, the most violent protests, e.g. the burning of a police station near Isfahan captured on this video, happened in the boondocks where water has run out. The river that runs through Isfahan, a legendary city of gardens in the desert, literally has run dry. Some Iranian officials warn that tens of millions of Iranians will have to leave their homes for lack of water. The country has used up 70% of its groundwater and its literally drying up major rivers to maintain consumption. It’s the worst ecological disaster in modern history.

If this analysis is even close to correct, things are going to get deadly interesting in the coming years. And it might not be just Iranians who face death. Iran will be like a cornered animal. The world, the Middle East, and especially Israel, will be in great danger because this particular cornered animal will have nothing to lose by doing very evil and violent things.

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29 comments

  • Phill O

    And Trudeau will say “We can take the millions of refugees” and the USA will have Iran on the northern border.

    I can only hope that the conservative rebellion which swept Trump to power will put Trudeau out to pasture. This is a slim hope for Canada, but might be real for Alberta.

  • Chris

    Water is a problem for many countries – China is one. Water is a fundamental need and the actions taken to secure it will be fundamental and severe. The US and especially Israel need to be truly on guard about this.
    With this in mind the ability to possibly apply technology, all be it expensive technology, may be a way for the US and Israel to gain favor with the Iranian poeple.
    As a side note this demographic decline and failure has been predicted (“How civilizations die” for one). The predicted outcomes are not good as the reactions of the regimes seeing no good way out of a demographic decline is desperate.
    Russia is also in line for a demographic collapse if memory serves – below replacement population birth rate and low life expectancy.

  • wayne

    What is this “once great nation” garbage? Like when they were Persia? or when they were Marxists? or when they held our diplomatic hostages for 444 days? Or was it when they actively killed our soldiers in Iraq?
    Or maybe when obama gave them a Billion dollars, in untraceable currency?

    It’s a made up country, run by totalitarian islamists, who chant death to America/Israel, every single day, (5 times a day) and are actively manufacturing nuclear weapons and the rockets to use them, against us & Israel. They have been at war with us, since 1979. The sooner we end it, the better.

    pivoting:
    “Why Are We So Blind To Assume They Are Our Allies?!”
    – Jordan Peterson
    https://youtu.be/RLQnFb1NaDo
    (9:09)

  • Steve Earle

    Wayne, as usual well said!

    I agree with every word, although Mr. Z may have been referring to the period when Iran was much more westernized under the Shah. Somewhere recently I saw a website with before and after pictures of the people and landmarks of Iran. Sad and fascinating at the same time.

  • Michael

    One can hope but I doubt it. Plus in my opinion any follow-on government would most likely be a new disaster – a mess helped along (possibly even encouraged) by the foolish west.

  • wayne

    “Iran the new NAZI Germany”
    https://youtu.be/NyqrpvXv15U
    3:24

  • Kirk

    wayne, “It’s 1938 and Iran is Germany. And it’s racing to arm itself with atomic bombs.” — Benjamin Netanyahu, November 2006.

    So it should be 1949/1950 by now, but is it still 1938?

  • wayne

    Kirk–
    it’s more like 1941. A crude analogy to be sure–history doesn’t often repeat, but it does rhythm quite a bit.
    -Don’t really know what ‘time’ it is, but it’s far closer to midnight than we want to admit to ourselves.

    The Man in the High Castle
    Season 1 Recap
    https://youtu.be/D3QFDWToeSA
    3:52

  • ken anthony

    I can see the space aliens looking down at earth and scratching their eye tentacles, “They have nuclear power, their surface is 70% oceans and their countries are running out of water!???”

  • wayne

    Referencing the article: (what sorta sent me into a seizure) {What sort of reference frame is this guy coming from? as-if some big FDR Style Program, will fix this? Not gettin’ it, at all. As-if it’s a first world country, with policy failures.}

    “It has the highest rate of venereal disease infection and the highest rate of infertility of any country in the world. It has a youth unemployment rate of 35% (adjusted for warehousing young people in state-run diploma mills). And worst of all, it has run out of water.”

    1) VD, et al…what’s that all about? no…I don’t wanna know. (I have a pretty good idea, but it’s not pretty nor natural, at all.)

    2) Youth Unemployment and state-run diploma mills… cry me river of SJW tears. Obama gave them a billion dollars in cash, that should buy at least some shovel-ready jobs. I’d suggest digging bomb-shelters, immediately.

    3) It has run out of water! Oh, my, God… don’t care! (What are their per-capita CO2 emission’s? Don’t care either.)

    “Iran,” look that up, it’s like “LA RAZA.” It’s a made up Country, (what 1937-ish?) ruled by apocalyptic, totalitarian, genocidal, islamist’s, who practically have atomic weapons (& already have the rockets,) and vow to kill us all.

    They’ve been doing their stuff since 1979. Personally, I’m just sick of it, and them.

    (Obama is an America Hater and he spent 8 years stocking the whole government with all manner of America-haters, including Iranian shills and sympathizers.)

    “I’m Angry”
    Danielle Pascal
    [Infowar contestant-entry, mild language alert]
    https://youtu.be/RAplLNvvAVk?t=8
    2:40

  • Mars Reviler

    Many Jews are wealthy in Iran. Israel offers them money to emigrate. They do not. Now you dummies want us to kill them for not being nice or something. Iran has had a Commercial Jet shot out out of the sky by a US warship. The Commander was given a Medal. The US explained that it was just a silly mistake. The Marine Barracks was blown up by Iranian allies, an act of War committed by combatants in a conflict – NOT a terrorist act. Ronnie Ray-gun was shelling this country at the time. Iran is not going to be attacked by Israel or the US. The Mullahs need the hate to continue to consolidate power. Israel is not in any way opposed to Iran, why would any Jews live in Iran at all? See, just because Jews are making money ANTISEMITE !

  • Mars Reviler

    The Marine Barracks were in Lebanon. Ray-gun ran away with his tail between his legs. Then Israel got burned. It wasn’t getting the usual 100 to 1 casualty rate that they are used to. So sad!

  • wayne

    “Now you dummies want us to kill them for not being nice or something.”

    Yeah, whatever. What am I suppose to say?

  • Mars Reviler

    I need a few (((Media-MIC-Oligarchs))) to lead me by the nose to my death! Even if they are Actual Nazi’s as in Ukraine! I want to increase the hate online to consolidate the Power of the Mullahs! Did you know that Khomeini was half WHITE? He looks like Sean Connery! Did you know that the King of Jordan is also half white?

  • Mars Reviler

    It is a Mad-Max scramble for Oil and Gas. Nothing can change this! We all died already in 2008.

  • Mars Reviler

    The first troops that were sent in the First World War by Britain went to Iraq. Absolutely nothing has changed. Over 100 years ago. You types are the worst! General lovers. I am on your side, actually. I don’t want White people to starve!

  • Mars Reviler

    I think those Ukies are another Paper Tiger. They can be Nazi’s and still be supported by the (((Rothschild Zionists))). It is so obvious that they are dead meat. I am sure they see that. It is cool for us to hate Russia now. I hate Putin for meeting with Kissinger. Putin really deals with scum who think that “military men are dumb animals”.

  • Mars Reviler

    Iran is cornered and desperate. It should DOUBLE the Tax that Jews pay to do business there! I would like Iran to Email us with a response to this perfectly reasonable proposition. This is even before any Ethnic Cleansing. Remember Iran-Contra? Republican presnitwits play with the great unwashed browns like a fiddle. Correction – that orange idiot obviously has no power beyond a huge debt to repay for being just a lowly Gentile with a German background.

  • Phill O

    Mars Reviler

    Sorry, but I am truly having a hard time following your logic here.

  • Mars Reviler

    Oh right. These damn yokels from the fringe of society are hurtful to the killings we hold so dear.

  • Mars Reviler

    If we corner the Iran’s – which is named after Aryans – we can make things better for the Jews who are continuing to THRIVE there. It worked as well as the Zionist Boycott of German businesses in 1933. Yes, Jews were wealthy and prominent in German industry. Jews are wealthy and prominent in Iran, as well as the USA.

  • Mars Reviler: Your posts resemble either a bot that is spewing out nonsense, or that of a bigot and anti-Semite who cannot write anything with any rational logic. If you do not soon begin writing something that is not only worth reading but carries with it some meaning, I will have to block your posts simply because they are contributing nothing worthwhile to this site.

  • Mars Reviler

    You like sausage, but don’t want to see it being made. There is this whole USA! USA! Cowboy-Up mentality that is absolutely certain to kill everyone reading this. Once the reality sets in about the real, actual cost of the North American Oil Production being a Ponzi Scheme, then the Economy goes BYE BYE! One country will find it’s Oil supply threatened, it will attack militarily. Some General will be facing defeat and will use TACTICAL NUKES. The other side will say “well played” and will give up? No, their allies will use Nukes as well. The handful of people who survive will be in deep underground military bases. Nothing in the Universe can stop this! No Aliens will come! Not only that, we are ALONE in the Universe! No one told me this, but I know it in my gut.

  • Mars Reviler

    Are any of my facts about the Islamic Republic in dispute here?

  • Mars Reviler

    Iran has Jews but Saudi Arabia is a great friend to Trump. Saudi Arabia will not allow Christian Churches, they are illegal.

  • Mars Reviler

    I don’t have lucrative employment that might cause a serious setback if it might be rescinded. You probably want to hear that, so I will save you trouble of conspiring with people (who are always victims officially and could never harm anyone for crossing them). See how helpful I am to you! I have saved you from the inconvenience of activating the network of scheming, double-crossing back-biting caring nurturers that you are!

  • Mars Reviler

    I would like the readers to give their opinions of the Azov Battalion. Google it if you must. Mr. Trudeau seems to like them. The US State Department likes them. But I am less Nazi than them. It is my bigoted opinion that must be confronted here! I want an Apology from You, Bob Dylan!

  • Chris

    Bob – cut the cord

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