Trump winning open primaries, Cruz winning closed ones
Link here.
If true, why does this matter? Because so far the primary calendar has been heavily tilted toward open primaries. But there have been four closed elections: the Iowa caucus, the Nevada caucus, and Super Tuesday’s Oklahoma primary and Alaska caucus. Ted Cruz won three of those four closed elections.
This suggests that, as a number of polls have indicated, Trump’s victories have largely been aided by moderate Democratic voters crossing over to vote for him, mostly I suspect out of disgust at the extreme leftist tilt of their own party.
A more important factor to consider, however, is that the primaries will be increasingly shifting to closed primaries in the coming weeks. This weekend alone there are four primaries/caucuses, and they are all closed. No Democrats can vote in them. If Cruz tops Trump in most, it will indicate Trump’s true weakness within the Republican Party, a fact that could make it far more difficult for him to achieve the nomination than presently indicated.
And if Trump does well in these closed primaries? Then the nomination is likely his.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Link here.
If true, why does this matter? Because so far the primary calendar has been heavily tilted toward open primaries. But there have been four closed elections: the Iowa caucus, the Nevada caucus, and Super Tuesday’s Oklahoma primary and Alaska caucus. Ted Cruz won three of those four closed elections.
This suggests that, as a number of polls have indicated, Trump’s victories have largely been aided by moderate Democratic voters crossing over to vote for him, mostly I suspect out of disgust at the extreme leftist tilt of their own party.
A more important factor to consider, however, is that the primaries will be increasingly shifting to closed primaries in the coming weeks. This weekend alone there are four primaries/caucuses, and they are all closed. No Democrats can vote in them. If Cruz tops Trump in most, it will indicate Trump’s true weakness within the Republican Party, a fact that could make it far more difficult for him to achieve the nomination than presently indicated.
And if Trump does well in these closed primaries? Then the nomination is likely his.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Trump is winning this. His rivals are incompetent. They’ve debated all their lives, no they meet Trump who debates for the first time in his life. And he totally owns everyone of his opponents! Trump won’t lose. Even as a beginner in class, he’s superior to the best who ever graduated from this political election circus.
Those who consider “the singularity” (from AI development and such ) as an endpoint, need look no further than Trump. He takes over everything he wants to. Become the POTUS? Easy! Just take out those idiots who have failed all of their lives with everything they have attempted. They are a bunch of corrupt stupid losers, easy pick. They don’t even know how to debate, although they’ve done nothing but talking all of their lives. They just don’t know, they have no chance, they are born losers and they are losing badly now.
I doubt that local reps admire Ted Cruz. And even if the central party administration did, it probably wouldn’t have much control over many of those closed states coming up now. Many local reps will wanna beat Hillary, and fix some of the obvious plumbing problems in the US gov today.
Local Fluff: I’ve warned you three times previously: Please use the same name when you comment, even if it is anonymous. Changing your id each time is unnecessary and deceptive.
This is the last warning. The next time you post under a name different than Local Fluff, I will ban you from commenting on this site.
Your comments are generally interesting and thoughtful, but your refusal to use the same nom de plume each time I cannot abide.
The Trumpian wrote, in part:
“Just take out those idiots who have failed all of their lives with everything they have attempted.” “…they are born losers and they are losing badly now.” “And he totally owns everyone of his opponents!”
Yeah, right… that’s how to persuade people, eh?
Sad to say, but this is representative of the discourse we could expect from the a large fraction of the followers of the billionaire Progressive.
-Not taking the bait dude.
(Do you even know who Ray Kurzweil is?)
Go ahead, personally attack me, if it makes you feel better.
If this trend is even partially true, Trump would be well served by asking Cruz to be his running mate. If they can bury the hatchet Cruz would balance the ticket nicely.
My guess is that Trump will continue to be Trump and pick someone who he thinks will be sufficiently obsequious….
Steve
Agree with your 2nd point, but respectfully disagree with the first. VP largely does nothing after all, which IMO, would be a waste of Cruz.
Let’s see what the next 15-20 States say.
So, the Trump-Guy is actually an internet-troll of sorts, why am I not surprised?
Go ahead dude, attack me, call me “stupid,” “born loser,” “own me,” whatever that really means. What, angling for a job with Trumps security-forces? He apparently prefers to import foreign labor.
My Guy may not win, but I’m confident Trump isn’t whom you project him to be.
11:43, Eastern time: Mitt Romney is in the process of increasing the likelihood hood that Donald J. Trump becomes the president of the United States.
Cotour–
Let’s see how this plays out first. It’s way early
Wow– If Romney attacked Obama like this, he would have won.
Mitt Romney:
1. http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2012-08-09/romney-explains-his-famous-bain-photo
Filthy corporate raiding capitalist?
2. Romney praises Trump? https://youtu.be/xGUlHidiJt8
3. Romney speech a strategic classic establishment psyops operation to psych and shake Trump in tonight’s debate. Are the remaining Republican candidate recipients of this operation to be considered tools of the party leadership now?
4. This is how scared the establishment / One World Government / NAFTA think will go to take out one who is not one of their own? No. they will probably go much much further.
5. Hold on for the ride, you have never seen what you are about to see in modern American times in the coming weeks and months. Power is never surrendered willingly, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, expect anything.
Handy listing of upcoming Republican Primary’s, delegates’ at stake, and open/closed States.
http://therightscoop.com/upcoming-elections-and-delegates-heres-what-is-at-stake-from-now-until-march-15th/
Wayne:
I think this establishes that Trump is a true establishment outsider. Romney did not dare attack Obama like that because Obama is on the inside and is apparently one of “them” (meaning that he plays by the rules laid out by the establishment) , and of course his racial identity was and is his protection. If Romney reamed Obama like that and drilled it home he would be the president today.
Lets wait to see how this plays out? Its playing out right before your eyes, right now. Your in the forest, don’t let the trees confuse you.
Cotour– ohhh– come on.
:)
My Primary is next week. Not going to throw in the towel just because Romney popped out of the woodwork.
This is all heavy-duty, inside-the-beltway, Big Media, elitist-stuff, on Adderall. I stopped listening to the pundit-noise, helped clear my mind.
Trump gets almost 1/3 of actual votes, so far, in Republican primaries, and it’s a foregone conclusion? Not believing that.
–Could be wrong, but you know I’m voting Cruz.
Yo, where’s Mr. Local Fluff Guy? Har….
This idea that the same political dogs that got us into this nightmare are the same ones that are going to take us to the promised land is just insane…
If we are to have honesty in politics, it can only come about by having enforced penalties for treason, betrayal, extortion, theft, and general law breaking. I mean penalties, like prison in hi max security cells, where death by ass rape is a strong likelihood. Since politicians are notoriously gutless and cowardly, when those who worship power and glory see the downside of corruption being imposed with vigor, then , and only then , will a modicum of honesty start to leech into the system…until then, its all “how many angels on a pin head?” hooey….
@Rob Zim
Why don’t you use a blog where one can register, then, if it is so important for you that your users always use the same name? I always use the same email, that’s how you recognize me, right? I’m not hiding from you. But since your form always asks me about a new user name, I sometimes put one in which is suitable to the topic I comment about. Trump’s “I will take take take take” is a pretty unique statement. And one which was very much needed now finally.
Elvis has left the building. A new king has arrived. And it’s not Clinton. She’ll leave the building in November. Ashamed like a dog who has peed on the floor. After having met Trump, she’ll leave politics once and for all and never return.
Wayne:
“Yeah, right… that’s how to persuade people, eh?”
No, that’s just a simple fact. All other politicians have serious holes in their heads, if you consider what they have accomplished and what they are now saying. Hole in the head. Boys like Jeb Bush or Trump’s new pet Chris Christie. They let themselves be humiliated by the natural born boss. They enter slave mode in His vicinity. Total brain melt down every time for them. There is one winner. It has never been more obvious.
Wayne:
Im not suggesting for one second that you not continue to execute your plan, do what you think best.
The question remains: When its all boiled down and whom ever left is left who will be the more likely victor?
We can be fairly sure that it will be a wounded by her own hubris Hillary, who its going to be on the other side is what is more interesting right now.
Wayne, I agree that Cruz should be President himself or at least named to the Supreme Court, but I was speaking from Trumps point of view that it would be to Trumps benefit to have Cruz on his ticket. Whether Ted would agree is another thing entirely. At least it would put him in a position to run again in 8 years. The risk for him would be if Trump is a disaster which would hurt his chances later on…..
Cotour, I also believe that Romney kust gave Trump a big leg up. What the hell is he or the RNC thinking? This just confirms that they have no clue at all why Trump is popular, or worse, they do but are so desperate to keep the status quo that they will pull out every rabbit they have out of the hat in hopes they can derail him.
I wonder if they would be doing the same if Cruz were leading the race? I suspect that they would be, but perhaps not so publically….
Steve/Coutor–
All good points. I think we are all clear on where we each stand. (No offense taken at all.)
One thing for which I think we all agree– Trump has masterfully tapped into a real part of the electorate, that is totally fed up with both sides.
The RNC was totally arrogant & convinced Trump would implode, they really wanted Jeb or Marco, and they have always hated Cruz.
Trump or Cruz, the media will mercilessly attack whomever gets the nomination. They cover all this as-if it were a sporting-event.
Local Fluff-
I sincerely appreciate your passion, just don’t agree with your narrative or methodology.
(Your taking my bait, in part. Think about it)
If you’ve read any of my posts, you know I am totally sick of crony-rino’s & have always disliked the Democrat Party. Progressive Statism is rampant, at the top, in both parties.
I think we agree on that point, correct. (?)
Now, I am confused as to whether you support Trump or not? I personally don’t want the “winner,” I want the Right Guy. (Don’t want the “Strong Man,” it smacks of totalitarian/authoritarianism a bit too much for me.)
–If you do support Trump, my only question would be, who is your 2nd choice, if he doesn’t get the Nomination?
Of all the politicians in-play now, Cruz has done what he promised, at every opportunity he had. (For that, I believe I have the “facts” on my side.)
[Psychology was my profession, I’ll appeal to my own “authority” on certain topics although I am by no means expert in everything.]
What do you think?
(I’m willing to wager Mr. Z has access to IP addresses as part of his website analytics. We all have to be at least a little willing to own all our comments.) ((And thanks to Mr. Z for not requiring Facebook log-ins, I really dislike FB tracking me 24/7 & no longer participate with them at all.))
Supporting evidence that Hillary will be seriously ham strung and or not the Dem candidate:
Judge Napolitano, Blaze:
Napolitano argued that the revelation that former Clinton aide Bryan Pagliano, who set up Clinton’s private email server in 2009, is reportedly being offered immunity means he will likely be called to testify against someone much higher on the “totem pole.”
Pagliano will likely be asked how he was able to “migrate a State Department secure system onto her private server.” He then presented this theoretical question: “Mr. Pagliano, did Mrs. Clinton give you her personal Secretary of State password to enable you to do that?”
Total potential game changer, granny in horizontal black and white stripes.
Cotour–
Oh yeah– Hillary is potentially guilty of multiple felonies. (If there is any “justice” left in America– she would very likely be on her way to prison.
No “intent” is required at all, with the particular law she is alleged to have violated.
FBI however, only does the investigating. The “Public Accountability” (something like that) desk at the Justice Department however, has final say over whether charges are ever filed, and the 3 people in the chain are all political appointees. Attorney General Lynch also has a say & she will do whatever Obama wants. (Mitch & the Gang fully consented to her appointment Cruz voted no.)
–Interestingly as well– those secure Government IT systems prevent forwarding of the alleged documents outside the internal system, the only way to get that info off their servers, and onto Hillary’s, is to use a thumb-drive and/or screen grab the info & physically transfer it to Hillary’s server. (You can’t “accidentally” do it.)
Yes, “potential game changer,” but when has a Clinton ever been really held accountable for anything? I have little faith it will come to anything.
–An even more bizarre can-o-worms, is the Clinton Foundation, all sorts of potential Felonies (State & Federal) are alleged to have been committed. (They apparently don’t bother to file the necessary, correct, or timely required forms. NY is half-heartedly looking into it, but again, I have little faith.
(Love Judge Napolitano!)
Tangent– there are about 1,000 Federal Judges who are appointed for life, it’s not only SCOTUS we have to worry about, it’s all those other appointments as well. Mitch & the Gang have approved practically every one of Obama’s appointments.
Have you had a chance to vote in your Primary yet?
Q: What kind of leverage has to be applied to a former Governor and from where does it come from to plainly and flat out contradict and essentially shame himself ?
(Or is it just driven by Romneys resentment related to Trump pushing him back and making him second guess himself and not run? That hesitation and fear alone is the tell that says that Romney really is a looser and apparently also a tool of his superiors)
Net, net, Trump has been empowered and not diminished. (this entire Romney gambit hinges on Trumps reaction and how he handles his opponents tonight. He handled Romney like the little man that he is and we will see soon enough how he handles anyone else)
No, I have not voted in any primary yet.
Cotour wrote; (with reference to Romney)
“Net, net, Trump has been empowered and not diminished.”
Yes, fully agree. Romney is not loved by Conservatives, and yes, he lost an otherwise super-easy election. (and is therefore a “loser.”) When Romney ran for Governor of Massachusetts, he went Full Left of Teddy Kennedy. He created Romney-Care, he refused to attack Obama, he apologizes for being wealthy…. the list is truly endless. In my opinion, he has definite Progressive views. (Worst Candidate since McCain, who the Establishment also forced onto us.)
Nobody wanted him to run this year, only the rino-class.
(We have experience with his “populist” dad, here in Michigan as well.)
That being said, Trump has high-negatives & is only capturing 1/3 of the Primary Vote.
If Trump can keep a grip tonight, he will also elevate his stature further. If Rubio mentions “bankruptcy” (or “impotence” HAR) enough, Trump might lose it, but he shouldn’t take the bait if he’s as smart as he claims. I don’t however, think he can help himself.
Cruz, on the other hand, builds a case like the lawyer & Forensics (debate) guy he is. Cruz has an audio-version of a photographic memory, he remembers almost everything he hears. He is fully capable of trapping Trump in endless logical inconsistencies’ & building a solid case against Trump, but a certain percentage of folks just do not care.
(As Joe Pesci said in Goodfella’s, “He might fold under questioning.”)
I’m afraid my previous favorite-cable-news-channel, the Crony Capitalist Progressive News Network, is going to manipulate the entire debate, again. (given it’s nowhere near a real “debate.”) Megan will ask loaded questions, etc., etc.
Either way, you know I’m voting for Cruz next Tuesday.
Hillary has kept her support despite numerous crimes. Giving the thumb drive containing classified material to her Attorney is already per se evidence of a serious offense. And yet, like Trump, her followers don’t seem bothered and the media reports on the individual stories for a day or two, but the spin is that the mean Republicans are attacking her, which makes her the ultimate female victim of all these “microaggressions” against her.
The only thing that will have any real effect on her will be an actual Indictment. Anything less and she wins. And as you fine people have already noted, that won’t happen unless Obama agrees to it. The only wild card MAY be FBI Director Comey, we’ll see what he does, if anything.
“…the Crony Capitalist Progressive News Network…” That’s great Wayne LOL! Unfortunately true…..
Steve wrote, in part: “The only wild card MAY be FBI Director Comey, we’ll see what he does, if anything.”
Yes. I have more faith in Comey compared to Lynch, but he still doesn’t make the final decision, “just”investigates. [correction from my prior post, it’s the “Public Integrity Section” of the Justice Department that would prosecute, unfortunately the bosses are all Obama political appointee’s.]
Obama does hate the Clinton’s but I have zero clue how this will play out.
Always liked “our-favorite-cable-news-channel,” but was never confused as to how little they were in actuality, “Conservative.” They only appeared that way because we were all sick of the Networks & the Clinton News Network channel.
-I would differentiate between pure opinion & “news,” but I can’t tell the difference anymore at FOX & just don’t really watch at all anymore.
–How about editorial page at the Wall Street Journal? News is fairly “fair,” but editorial page is pure Cronyism.
–Totally sick of the US Chamber of Crony Capitalism.
Don’t get me wrong, I am a Capitalist and/but Cronyism is inherently socialist in nature; they like the idea of distributing losses onto the people while concentrating the gain to themselves. Prefer “Statist,” but everyone tends to know about “cronyism.”
Not at all convinced Hillary is a sure-thing, but I am moderately convinced the democrat-party will rally around whomever their nominee is– it’s inherent in their Borg-like slavish devotion to the State